RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2

Module 1.2Socio economic drivers

Annual meeting 2006

INEA Istituto Nazionale di Economia AgrariaUC3M Universidad Carlos III de MadridRIKS Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 2

Objectives of Module 1.2

Socio-economic drivers of desertification; Development of a land use model:

Estimate socio-economic trends and associated land claims;

Dynamic processes: changes in demography, sectoral economic activity, employment levels, land uses (time dependant forecasts ≈ 30 yrs);

Spatially explicit analysis/representation; At different embedded spatial entities: EU,

National (country), Regional (NUTS2/NUTS3), Local (grid based entities ≤ 1km2);

Represent the interlinked processes at the different spatial entities.

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 3

Model structure: integrating 3 sub models

Regional and national trends inEmployment, population and

agricultural utilized area

Delineation of agricultural land

‘Geographical’Feedbacks

Constraints Pressures

Externalities

Cellular Automata Land use model WP

2.3

Agricultural land use

WP 2.2

Economic growth model

WP 2.1

Database development

Model development

Database development

Model development

Model development

integration

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 4

CA Loop CA Loop WP 1.2.3WP 1.2.3

Model structure: economic trends to land use

Regional and national trends

modelled by WP 1.2.1

Land use at time T

Suitability &

Zoning&

Accessibility

&

& CA RulesLand use at time T+1

This is a pivoting variable in linking the Bio-physical and

the Socio-economic aspects of the problem at stake

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 5

Model structure: specification of agricultural land

Socio-economic land uses

Provided by WP 1.2.3

Specification of Agriculture:

WP 1.2.2

Fully specified land use??Specification of

natural land

Scope for further integration

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 6

Database development

Sources: Farm Accountancy Data Network International databases: EuroStat, OECD National databases: Spain, Italy , Portugal

Now available: Macro-population trends and related

agricultural labour data, including:

•Work units (paid & unpaid)

•Utilized area

•National labour accounts Land productivity 1980-2002 by year, region,

farm type, and farm size

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 7

Model development: Economic growth

Economy develops towards equilibrium state

Based on established and robust MOISEES model Extended to include tourism sector Extended to include construction sector Reduced on the basis of relevance

Flexible region definitions: National, NUTS 2/3, Aggregates

Introduces EU / national level policy variables in the Integrated Assessment Model

Tax system, CAP, etc.

Output to Cellular Automata model Agricultural Utilized Area per region Employment in main economic sectors Consistent scenario on population development

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 8

Model development: Agricultural land use

Multinomial model of farm level decisions Dynamic model based on time series of FADN data Integrate two types of input:

Demographic & organizational: prices, subsidies etc. Site characteristics: topography, soil, climate etc.

Output is farm practice: Type of production? (crop/cattle) Management practices?

Estimated at farm level but transposed to be applied at as 1 km cell based model

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 9

Model development: Cellular Automata

The main factor determining locations of land use change is the neighbourhood of all location

The neighbourhood now extends to the whole map, integrating spatial interactions over different scales

The density of activities is determined by the value of a location

Allocation of activity (people, jobs) instead of land use (area)

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 10

Preliminary results, population Portugal

DATA 1990 DATA 2000 Model 2000

Error null

model

Error model

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 11

Theoretical background in deliverables

Andea Fais & Iraj Namdarian: Literature review of impact of socio-

economic factors on land use dynamics

Ricardo Mora & Carlo San Juan Literature review on agricultural economic

and demographic factors influencing land use dynamics

RIKS DeSurvey Module 1.2 12

Current priorities

Progress according to plan But there are some immediate issues:

What will be the decision variable for the agricultural land use model?

How do we anticipate further model integrations (1.1.-1.6)?