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RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 1
RISEANDFALLOFTEXASSTEMEDUCATIONCOLLEGEREADINESSANDCOURSE-TAKINGSINCEHOUSEBILL5OF2013
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
MichaelMarder,ExecutiveDirectorofUTeachandProfessorintheDepartmentofPhysics
TheUniversityofTexasatAustinMarch2018
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
HouseBill5of2013wasthemostimportanteducationbillinTexasofthelastdecade.Itgreatlyreducedhigh-stakestestinginTexashighschoolsandchangedhighschoolgraduationrequirementstoaccommodatestudentswhointendtobypassafour-yearcollegedegreeandgodirectlyintotheworkforce,withorwithoutformalpost-secondarytraining.
ThefirstclasswhosewholehighschoolcareerwassetbyHB5istheclassof2018.Theyhavenotyetgraduated. However,manyprovisionsofthebillkickedinassoonasthefallof2013.Weknowthecoursesthatstudentshavebeentakingastheygothroughhighschool,andweknowhowtheyhavedoneontestsalongtheway,sothepictureofhowTexaseducationlooksafterHB5iscomingintofocus.
ProponentsofHB5arguedatthetimethatthestate’snewworkforce-centricdiplomaswerenotbetterorworsethanthepreviousones—justdifferent.Hereareresultssofar,focusingonSTEM—someofwhicharegood,butmostofwhicharebad,neutral,ormixed.
• Good.Highschoolgraduationrateshavecontinuedtoincrease,slowlyandsteadily,andremainamongthebestinthenation,overallandbysubgroup.
• Bad.Thereisarapidandalarmingdropinpost-secondaryopportunitiesforTexasstudentsoverall.Thedropaffectsallgroups,butisparticularlysevereforstudentsinschoolsofconcentratedpoverty,andforBlackandHispanicstudents.
• Neutral.ThoughAlgebraIIbecameoptional,therateatwhichstudentstakethatcoursehasnotdroppedmuch,becausethealternativesforitarelessattractive.PhysicsandChemistryalsobecomeoptional,andtherateatwhichstudentstakethemhasnotdroppedmuch,either.
• Mixed.ThepercentageofstudentstakingComputerScience,Statistics,andRoboticsisgrowingexponentially.However,forComputerScienceandStatistics,thesegainsareoverwhelminglyconcentratedinschoolsoflowpoverty.
Thus,whilecontinuingtodriveupthepercentageofstudentswhoobtainahighschooldiploma,Texasisallowingthevalueofthediplomatodegrade.ThefreedomHB5gavestudentstopursuetheirinterestsisalmostexclusivelybenefitingstudentsinlow-povertyschools.Studentsfacedecreasedpost-secondaryopportunitiesoverall,andthedecreaseismostsevereforBlack,Hispanic,andlow-incomestudents.
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 2
RISEANDFALLOFTEXASSTEMEDUCATIONCOLLEGEREADINESSANDCOURSE-TAKINGSINCEHOUSEBILL5OF2013
MichaelMarder,ExecutiveDirectorofUTeachandProfessorintheDepartmentofPhysics
TheUniversityofTexasatAustinMarch2018
BACKGROUND
Fromthelate1990suntil2010,Texasimplementededucationalpoliciesthatworkedovermanyyearstoincreasestudentsuccessinmeasuresofcollegeandcareerreadinesswhileatthesametimeimprovinggraduationrates.
In2011,substantialbudgetcutsreducedfundingtothepublicschoolsand,inparticular,reducedexpenditureonprogramsdesignedtohelpstudentsstrugglingacademically.In2013,thestatepassedHB5,whichchangedrequirementsfortestingandgraduation.Mandatoryexamsthatstudentshadusedtodemonstratecollegereadinessallbecameoptional.AlgebraII,Physics,andChemistrycoursesalsomovedfrombeingrequiredinthedefaultgraduationplantobeingoptional.(SeeTable1.)
SomemotivationsforHB5weretoreducethepressureofthehigh-stakestestingsystemonstudents,teachers,andschools,andtoprovidestudentswithfreedomtopursuesubjectsthatinterestedthemratherthanmakingmoststudentsfollowarigidcurriculumwithrelativelyfewelectives.
Itisdifficulttoarguewiththeseintentions.However,thereformsoftheprevioustwodecadesalsohadbeenmotivatedbygoodintentions,whichweretousethepressureofthetestingandaccountabilitysystemtoimposesteadilyrisingstandardsonapubliceducationsystemwithapoorrecordofservinglow-income,Hispanic,andBlackstudents.Overthecourseofmorethanadecade,thispressurehadproducedpositiveresults,althoughsignificantgapsineducationandopportunitybetweeneconomic,racial,andethnicgroupsneverwentaway.Thus,itisimportanttomonitortheconsequencesofchangesintestingandgraduationrequirementstoseewhethergapscontinuetodiminishorgrowandwhetheropportunityincreasesordecreases.
POST-SECONDARYOPPORTUNITY
Post-secondaryopportunityrosefrom2006until2013andthenplummetedforTexashighschoolgraduatesin2016.ThisistheresultofadropintheofficialCollegeReadinessCertificationrate,showninFigure1,whichbreaksdowntheresultsbyschoolswithdifferentlevelsofpovertyconcentration.
CollegeReadinessCertificationisthenameforaparticularcollegereadinessmeasurethattheTexasEducationAgencypreparesforeveryTexashighschoolgraduateaspartoftheTexasSuccessInitiative(TSI).Forstudentswhoenteredhighschoolpriorto2011,therewereseveralwaystobecertifiedCollegeReady.TheycouldgetscoresaboveacutoffonthemandatoryTAKSexamstheirjunioryear.Theycouldgetabove1110ontheSATor24ontheACT.Ortheycouldcompleteacollegecourseorreceivehonorabledischargefrommilitaryservice.Farandawaythemostlikelywaytogetthecertificationwasthroughscoresonthemandatorystatetests.
ThestorybehindtherisingrateofCollegeReadinessCertificationfrom2006until2014inFigure1isthatmoreandmorestudentssuccessfullymetabenchmarkontheexit-levelTAKS.WhenTexastransitionedfromTAKStoSTAARin2011,theexamsdesignedtotakeoverthecollegecertificationtaskwereAlgebraIIandEnglishIII.
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 3
UnderHB5,AlgebraIIandEnglishIIIbecameoptionalfordistrictstooffer,theydisappearedfromtheannualtestingcalendar,andonlyatrickleofresultsfromthemhavebeenreportedsince2012–2013.SchoolswereencouragedtohavestudentstaketheTexasSuccessInitiativeAssessment(TSIA)whilestillinhighschool.However,studentswerenotrequiredtotakeit,andthisisthemainreasonthatCollegeReadinessCertificationratesplummeted.
Table1:Graduationplansovertime.
Year Graduationplanfor enteringfreshmen
Graduationplanrecommended forhighschoolgraduates
Mandatoryhighschooltestsfor
freshmen
Mandatoryhighschooltestsfor
graduates
2006-2007
Recommended:4English, 3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies
4English,3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS
2007-2008
Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies
TAKS TAKS
2008-2009 Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science,
3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS
2009-2010 Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science,
3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS
2010-2011 Recommended:4x4 4x4 TAKS TAKS
2011-2012 Recommended:4x4 4x4 STAAR(15tests) TAKS
2012-2013 Recommended:4x4 4x4 STAAR(15tests) TAKS
2013-2014
Transition:Foundation+Endorsement,
4x4allavailable4x4 STAAR(5tests) TAKS
2014-2015 Foundation+Endorsement 4x4 STAAR(5tests)
STAAR(15tests,droppedto5junior
year)
2015-2016 Foundation+Endorsement
Studentsenteredunder4x4,buthadavailableFoundation+Endorsement
orDistinguishedSTAAR(5tests)
STAAR(15tests,droppedto5
sophomoreyear)
2016-2017
Foundation+Endorsement Studentschosebetween4x4orFoundation+Endorsementonentry
STAAR(5tests) STAAR(5tests)
2017-2018 Foundation+Endorsement
FirstcohortonlychoosingbetweenFoundation+Endorsement
orDistinguishedSTAAR(5tests) STAAR(5tests)
Source:TexasEducationAgency.Stategraduationrequirements.Availableathttp://tea.texas.gov/graduation.aspx.
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 4
Figure1:CollegeReadinessCertificationofgraduatingTexashighschoolseniorsfrom2007to2016, disaggregatedbyschoolpovertyconcentration.Source:TexasEducationAgency,AEIS,andTAPR.
Forgraduatesfromthequarterofschoolswiththelowestconcentrationoflow-incomestudents,CollegeReadinessCertificationfellfromapeakof71%to55%in2015–2016.Forgraduatesfromthequarterofschoolswherepovertyismosthighlyconcentrated,CollegeReadinessCertificationdroppedfromthepeakof42%to13%in2015–2016. Figure2showsCollegeReadinessCertificationforvariousracial,ethnic,andeconomicgroups.ThedropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwasmostsevereforBlackstudents,forwhomitfellfromapeakof42%to17%in2015–2016.ItwasleastsevereforWhitestudents,forwhomitfellfromapeakof71%to55%in2015–2016.
Figure2:CollegeReadinessCertificationofgraduatingTexashighschoolseniorsfrom2007to2016,
disaggregatedbyracial,ethnic,andeconomicgroups.Source:TexasEducationAgency,AEIS,andTAPR.
ThisdropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwillhaveseriousconsequencesforstudents.Itisnotjustanarbitraryopinionaboutwhichstudentsarereadyforcollege.Itisactuallyahiddencollegeadmissionsrequirement.Itishiddenbecausetechnicallyitisnotanadmissionsrequirementatall.Collegesareforbiddenfromusingitaspartoftheadmissionsprocess.Highschoolgraduatescanenrollinanycommunitycollege,andmanyfour-yearcollegesareopentoallhighschoolgraduatesaswell.However,althoughstudentsareadmitted,theycanbebarredfromcourseworkthatleadstoa
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aver
age
Colle
ge R
eadi
ness
(%)
Texas College Readiness, schools of different poverty concentration
Poverty GroupRichest quarter of schoolsNext-to-richest quarter of schools
Next-to-poorest quarter of schoolsPoorest quarter of schools
2006
-200
7
2007
-200
8
2008
-200
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-201
0
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-201
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2011
-201
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-201
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-201
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2014
-201
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2015
-201
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0
20
40
60
Perc
enta
ge C
olle
ge R
eady
Texas College Readiness for Selected Groups
GroupsAverage College Readiness of White StudentsAverage College ReadinessAverage College Readiness of Hispanic StudentsAverage College Readiness of Economically Disadvantaged StudentsAverage College Readiness of Black Students
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 5
long-termcertificateordegreeuntiltheyareCollegeReadyCertifiedinmathematics,reading,andwriting.Thestudentsareadmitted,buttheyarerequiredtospendtimeandmoneyoncourseworkatthehighschoollevelthatwillnotcounttowardtheirdegreeuntiltheyareofficiallyreadyforfreshman-levelcourses.
Theseverityofthishiddenentrancerequirementissoftenedbythefactthatcollegesareunderordertohelpstudentsovercomeit,butevenso,theoddsaredaunting.IfastudentcomesoutofhighschoolwithoutbeingCollegeReady,thenuponwalkingintoacommunitycollege,heissupposedtotaketheTexasSuccessInitiativeAssessment(TSIA).Mathematicsposesthehighestbarrier.Thechancesofpassingthemathematicsportionofthisassessmentarearound20%.Studentswhodonotpassthemathematicsorreadingexamsmustenrollindevelopmentaleducationcourses.Ofthosewhoenrollindevelopmentaleducation,lessthanhalfcompletethecourseworksuccessfully,and,ofthose,onlyhalfcompletetheirfirstcollege-levelmathematicscourse.Thenetresultisthatonly15%ofstudentswhoentercollegewithoutbeingCollegeReadyinmathematicsgetthroughamathematicsrequirementfortheirdegreewithintwoyears.EvenbeforethelatestdropinCollegeReadinessCertification,morethan60%ofstudentsattwo-yearcollegeswereenrollingwithoutbeingCollegeReady.1
AstherisingwaveofstudentsleavinghighschoolbeingCollegeReadyenterstwo-yearcollegesoverthenextseveralyears,theywillberequiredtotaketheTSIA,andthereisnoreasontothinkthatthefractionwhopasstheexamorsucceedindevelopmentaleducationcourseswillriseincomparisontothepast.Thefractionofstudentsobtainingpost-secondarydegreesandlong-termcertificatesisverylikelytodecline.Thisdevelopmentisparticularlyunwelcomeinlightofanambitiousplanlaunchedin2015“whosemajorgoalisthat60percentofyoungTexanswillholdacertificateordegreeby2030.”2 Thebaselineyearwas2015,when41percentofyoungTexansheldacertificateordegree.IncreasingthispercentagewasacknowledgedtobedifficultatatimewhenCollegeReadinessCertificationhadbeenrisingforadecade.Reachingthegoalsof60x30whileitisdroppingisdifficulttoimagine.
DespitethefactthatacentraleducationalgoalofTexasisslippingoutofreach,thereisnosignofactiontoremedytheproblem.ThisisexplainedbyofficialresponsestothedropinCollegeReadinessCertificationrates.
HB5includedarequirementthatitsoutcomesbemonitored.TheTexasEducationAgency,TexasWorkforceCommission,andTexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoardwererequiredtomonitor“highschoolgraduationrates,collegereadiness,collegeadmissions,collegecompletion,obtainmentofworkforcecertificates,employmentrates,andearnings.”3 ThistaskwasassignedtoAmericanInstitutesforResearch,whoproducedaninterimreportinthefallof20154 andafinalreportinDecember2017.
TheAIRinterimreportdoesanexcellentjobofsummarizingthehistoryofTexasaccountabilityandtestingrequirements.ItshowshowimportantindicatorssuchasCollegeReadinessCertificationandgraduationrateshavevariedovertime.Itincludesresultsofacomprehensivesurveyofdistricts,providingavaluablerecordofdistrictactionsinresponsetoHB5upthrough2015.
TheAIRreportauthorsobserveinfootnote15that,“AlthoughtheSTAARAlgebraIIandEnglishIIIassessmentsarescheduledtobeadministeredagainin2015–2016,theyareoptionalfordistricts.”However,AlgebraIIandEnglishIIIdid
1 TexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoard.(2017).2017Texaspublichighereducationalmanac(report).Austin:Author.Availableat:http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/PDF/9435.PDF?CFID=64117197&CFTOKEN=93556140.2 TexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoard.(2017).2017Texaspublichighereducationalmanac(webpage).Availableat:http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/index.cfm?objectid=DDEEF064-B397-9EBA-773779AAC15507B4.3 TexasEducationAgency.Programevaluation:Researchreports.Availableat:http://tea.texas.gov/Reports_and_Data/Program_Evaluations/Research_Reports/Program_Evaluation___Research_Reports.4 AmericanInstitutesforResearch.(2015).HouseBill5evaluation.Austin:Author.Availableat:http://tea.texas.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&ItemID=25769823287&libID=25769823385
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 6
notappearontheSTAARtestingcalendarafter2012–2013,andnoresultsfromthesetestsappearedafterthatyearinstatedatareleasesuntil2015–2016,whenasmallfractionofthestate’sstudentswerereportedtobetakingitagain.
Thefinalstate-supportedAIRreportwasissuedinDecember2017.FromtheExecutiveSummaryofthatreport5:
Becauseofthesignificantchangesintestingrequirementsforthe2011–12cohort,theirmeasuredTSI[TexasSuccessInitiative]readinessratescannotbedirectlycomparedtoratesofearliercohortsforthepurposeofdescribingtrendsintruecollegereadiness.The2011–12incomingGrade9cohortwasthefirstcohortwheretheoptiontomeetTSIreadinessstandardsbyachievingatorabovetheHERCscoreonanexit-levelTAKSwaseliminatedwhentheSTAARreplacedTAKSasthestate’sstandardizedstudentassessment.
Inthebodyofthereport,thereistheacknowledgment:“WhileitisbeyondthescopeofthisreporttodeterminethedirecteffectsofchangesintestingrequirementsonTSIreadinessrates,stakeholdersarestillmetwithtangibleandsignificantimpactsassociatedwiththeseobservedrates.”
AlthoughtheconsequencesofCollegeReadinessCertificationforstudentsandforthestateareveryreal,themainproblemismoretechnicalthansubstantive.Whathighschoolgraduatesactuallyknowandcandoalmostcertainlydidnotchangemuchbetween2014–2015and2015–2016.Whathaschangediswhattheyprovedthattheyknowandcando.Thus,despitethenegativeconsequencesforstudentsindividuallyandforthestateingeneral,thereisnosenseofurgencytofixtheproblem.Thisseemstobebecauseofthesentimentthat“true”collegereadinesshasnotchanged.Unfortunately,“true”collegereadinesswillnotgetstudentsthroughcollege,fortheofficialstatemeasuresofCollegeReadinessCertificationwillpreventthemfromtakingcredit-bearingcourses.
COURSE-TAKINGINSTEM
Collegereadinesscanbemeasuredinmanyways.TheofficialmeasureIjustdiscussedisone,butthisiscertainlynotthebestwaytodecideifschoolsandteachershavepreparedstudentsforcollege.Ithaschangedgreatlyovertime,anditalsoneednotcorrespondwelltowhetherstudentswhogotocollegeactuallysucceed.Anotherwaytolookatcollegereadinessisthroughthecoursesthatstudentstake.Thistypeofcollegereadinessalsohasadministrativeconsequencesforstudents.Itisconnectedtocollegeadmission.OnlystudentswhograduateontheDistinguishedPlanareeligibleforautomaticcollegeadmissionunderthetop10%rule,andtheDistinguishedPlanrequirespassingAlgebraII,Chemistry,andPhysics.Mostfour-yearcollegeseitherrequirethesecoursesforadmissionorstronglyencouragethem
IexaminedSTEMcourse-takingpatternstoseeiftheyhavebeenchanging.STEMcoursesarenotoriouslychallengingforstudents,andtheypresentchallengesforschoolsaswell.Physicsteachersregularlyleadthelistofthehardestteacherstohire,withChemistryandmathematicsnotfarbehind.Thedecades-longpushtoincreasecollegereadinessinTexasthatpeakedin2013–2104includedapushtostaffPhysics,Chemistry,andadvancedmathematicscoursesinhighschool.IncontrastwiththecollapseinCollegeReadinessCertificationthatinprinciplecouldbecuredwiththeadministrationofnewtests,adeclineintheabilitytoteachSTEMsubjectswouldmeanamuchmoresubstantiallossinstudentaccomplishmentandschoolinfrastructure.YetsuchadeclinecanbeexpectedbecauseHB5madeAlgebraII,Physics,andChemistryoptional.6
5 AmericanInstitutesforResearch.(2017).HouseBill5evaluation:Finalreport.Austin:Author.Availableat:https://tea.texas.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&ItemID=51539618631&libID=51539618631.6 ThecaseofAlgebraIIiscomplicatedbecausestudentsmuststillchooseamathematicscoursefromalistonwhichAlgebraIIisarguablytheeasiestandmostfamiliar.ThisresultedfromadeliberateeffortbehindthescenestosteerstudentstowardAlgebraII.TherewasnosimilareffortdirectedtowardPhysicsandChemistry;studentscansatisfytheirphysicalsciencerequirementwithanIntegratedPhysics/ChemistryclassthatisatalowerlevelthaneitherPhysicsorChemistry.
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 7
DefinitiveinformationabouttheconsequencesofHB5forcourse-takingwillnotexistuntiltheclassthatenteredhighschoolinthefallof2014graduatesinthespringof2018,andthosedatawillnotbecomeavailableuntil2019.Still,studentshaveadvancedfarenoughinhighschoolwiththeprovisionsofHB5ineffectthatpreliminarystatementsaboutcourse-takingarepossible.
Overall,thenewshereispromising.TherehasnotbeenasharpdropinthenumbersofstudentstakingSTEMcourses.Iprovidetwoseparateviewsofthesituation:longitudinalbycohortandsnapshotbyyear.
LONGITUDINALCOURSE-TAKING
Figure3summarizesSTEMcourse-takingforTexashighschoolstudentsfromalongitudinalperspective.ThismeansthatIfollowindividualstudentsandtrackwhichSTEMcoursestheytakeinhighschoolbythetimetheygraduate.Thisapproachhastheadvantageofaccuratelyreflectingstudents’educationalexperience.Datapresentedthiswaycompensatenaturallyforpopulationgrowth.Thismethodhasthedisadvantagethatthedatalagbehindthemostrecentinformationavailableabouttheschools,becauseonemustfolloweachstudentthroughaminimumoffouryearstogivethemthechancetocompletehighschoolnormally.Forexample,ifin2016–2017therewasalargeriseinjuniorstakingComputerScience,thisapproachwouldmissit.ThatiswhyIwillalsopresentsnapshotsofcourseenrollmentbyyear.
Figure3:STEMcourse-takingforfreshmeninhighschool2008–2014, disaggregatedbyfree/reducedlunchstatus.Source:TexasEducationalResearchCenter.
Year in ninth grade
2007
-200
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2008
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Alg 1
Geom
Alg 2
Pre Calc
AP Calc
60%
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80%
Coho
rt %
88%
90%
92%
94%
Coho
rt %
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80%
85%90%
Coho
rt %
40%
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Coho
rt %
5%
10%
15%
Coho
rt %
Year in ninth grade
2007
-200
8
2008
-200
9
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-201
0
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-201
1
2011
-201
2
2012
-201
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2013
-201
4
Basic/APBiology
Basic/APChemistry
Basic/APComp Sci
Basic/APPhysics
IPC
Robotics
96%
98%
Coho
rt %
85%
90%
Coho
rt %
4%
6%
Coho
rt %
60%
70%
80%
Coho
rt %
20%
40%
60%
Coho
rt %
1%
Coho
rt %
GroupFree or Reduced Lunch Not Free or Reduced Lunch
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 8
Theprogressofstudentsthroughhighschoolcanbeerratic.Eachyear,approximately85%ofstudentsinthesamplewhoenterasfreshmenmakeitto12thgrade,and75%gothroughhighschoolinfouryears,advancingonegradeeveryyear.Thefigurepresentedheremakesuseofallstudentswhowerein9thgradeinthespecifiedyear.So,ifIshowthat20%ofstudentseligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunchenteringin2012–2013tookIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry(IPC),whatthismeansisthatwefoundallstudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013(thisneednotbetheonlyyeartheywerein9thgrade)andwhowereeligiblethatyearforfreeandreduced-pricelunch.Focusingonthatcohort,Ifindthat20%ofthemtookIPCatsomepointbetween2012–2013whentheywerein9thgradeand2015–2016,whichisthelastyearofdataavailabletous.
Coursesarearrangedinorderofdescendingenrollment.ThecoursewithhighestenrollmentisBiology,whichessentiallyeverystudenttakes.NextcomesGeometry.OnemightexpectAlgebraItobenearthetopofthelist,buttensofthousandsofstudentstakeAlgebraIinmiddleschool,andthelongitudinalstudiesconsideronlyhighschoolcourse-taking.NearlyallstudentstakeGeneralChemistryaswell.Thestudentswhoenteredhighschoolin2012–2013wereexpectingtohavetotakeit,andwouldtypicallyhavesignedupinSpring2013totakeitassophomoresthefollowingyear.ByFall2013,HB5hadmadeitoptional,butthereisnoindicationthatstudentschangedtheirplans.HB5technicallymadeAlgebraIIoptional,andthefreshmenof2012–2013couldhavetakentheotherallowedmathematicsclassesinstead,butAlgebraIIenrollmentwasunchangedfromthepreviousyear,andevenincreasedslightlycomparedwiththeyearbeforethat.
GeneralPhysicsdoesshowadropforthefreshmenenteringin2012–2013,butthisisalmostcompletelyoffsetbyacorrespondingriseinAPPhysics,andsodoesnotrepresentadeclineincollegepreparatoryphysicsenrollment.Forthisreason,IsumtogetherregularandAPclassenrollmentswheneveritmakessensetodoso.Pre-Calculus,likeAlgebraII,heldsteadyforstudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013comparedwiththepreviousyearandalsoshowedaslightjumprelativetotheyearbeforethat.
TheonlycoursethatshowsastrongdeclineinenrollmentduringtheanalysisperiodisIPC.Thisisalower-levelsciencecoursethaneitherPhysicsorChemistry.UnderHB5,studentswereallowedtosubstituteitforPhysicsandChemistry,buttheeffectofthelegislativechangesofarhasbeentostopitfromdecliningfurther,nottobringitback.
TheremainingSTEMcoursesarealloptionalandhaveconsiderablysmallerenrollments.BecauseHB5wasintendedtoallowstudentstopursuecareer-friendlypaths,onemightexpectComputerScienceenrollmenttohavestartedgrowingstrongly.ComputerScienceenrollmenthasindeedgrown,butthegrowthisslowandstudentparticipationremainsunder10%.ThestrongestgrowthisinRobotics,buttheenrollmentisstillminiscule.
ForalltheAPcoursesandforComputerScience,thereisasubstantialgapbetweenthefractionofstudentswhoareeligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunchtakingtheclassesandthosenoteligible.ThegapislargestinAPComputerScience,whereitisafactorof3andhasbeengrowing.AmongtheseoptionalSTEMclasses,onlyRoboticsenrollsthesamefractionoflow-incomeandwell-offstudents.
Figure4showslongitudinalcourse-taking,butnowbreakingoutracialandethnicgroups.Again,thereisnosharpchangevisibleforthestudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013relativetothepreviousyear.MaybethemoststrikingfeatureofthegraphistheextenttowhichAsianstudentshavebeenpursuingtheadvancedSTEMclasses.TheyarethreetimesaslikelytotakeComputerScienceandfivetimesaslikelytotakeAPComputerScienceasanyothergroup.ThegeneralpatternisthatBlackandHispanicstudentsenrollinadvancedcoursesatthelowestrate,withWhitestudentsatasomewhathigherrateandAsianstudentsatamuchhigherrate.Thesegroupdisparities,ifanything,grewoverthestudyperiod.
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 9
Figure4:STEMCourse-TakinginHighSchoolfor2008–2014, disaggregatedbyracialandethnicgroups.Source:TexasEducationalResearchCenter.
COURSEENROLLMENTSHAPSHOTS
Inowpresentasecondviewofcourse-takingbasedoncourseenrollmentdata.ThismethodhastheadvantagethatonecanfollowdevelopmentsclosertothepresentandobtainamorecurrentestimateoftheconsequencesofHB5.However,onecannolongerspeakwithasmuchaccuracyoftheexperienceofspecificstudentsorspecifictypesofstudents.Soastoprovidesomesenseoftheimpactondifferentstudentpopulations,Idividedschoolsupeachyearintofourgroupswithroughlyequalenrollment,inorderofincreasingfractionofstudentseligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunch.Thesegroupsdescribeschoolswithincreasingpovertyconcentration.SoastoaccountfullyforAlgebraI,Iincludebothmiddleandhighschools.Iconstructthequartileboundariesseparatelyeachyearandseparatelyformiddleandhighschools.
Figure5showsenrollmentinselectedmathematicscoursesfrom2005to2016.TheoverallmessageisthatforAlgebraI,Geometry,andAlgebraII,courseenrollmentshavebeenincreasingsteadilywiththeschoolpopulation.ThereisnosignofadropinenrollmentinanymathematicscoursesafterHB5.Enrollmentvariesaccordingtoschoolpovertyconcentration,butthevariationisnotassevereaswithothercourses.Still,intherichestschools,thenumberofstudentstakingGeometryequalsthenumbertakingAlgebraI,whileinthepoorestschools,thenumbertakingGeometryis20%lessthanthenumbertakingAlgebraI,andthenumbertakingAlgebraIIis15%lowerstill.Figure6focusesondistrictsthatenrollhighschoolstudentsintheDistinguishedPlanbydefault.Themainobservationhereisthatthesedistrictscontainaheavyconcentrationofschoolswithloweconomicneed,anditisonlyinschoolswithloweconomicneedwhereonecanseeanevidenteffectsofarofthispolicy.
Year in ninth grade
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-200
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-201
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Alg 1
Alg 2
Geom
Pre Calc
AP Calc
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Coho
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hort
%
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Coho
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Year in ninth grade
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Basic/APBiology
Basic/APChemistry
Basic/APComp Sci
Basic/APPhysics
Comp Sci
IPC
Robotics
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Coho
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5%
10%15%
Coho
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20%40%60%
Coho
rt %
0%
1%
Coho
rt %
GroupAsian Black Hispanic White
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 10
Figure5:Enrollmentinselectedmathematicsclasses,2005–2016. DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.
Figure6:AlgebraenrollmentsindistrictsthatenrollstudentsintheDistinguishedPlanbydefault.
ThenumbersofstudentstakingPre-CalculusandCalculushavegrownmuchfasterthanthestudentpopulation,althoughthenumbersarestillsmallincomparisonwithotherclasses.StudentsintherichestschoolsaretwiceaslikelytotakePre-Calculusasinthepoorestschools,andthreetimesaslikelytotakeCalculus.Thereisnosign,however,thatHB5hadaneffectonanyofthesetrends.
Lowest PovertyConcentration
Lower PovertyConcentration
Higher PovertyConcentration
Highest PovertyConcentration
2005
-200
620
07-2
008
2009
-201
020
11-2
012
2013
-201
420
15-2
016
2005
-200
620
07-2
008
2009
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020
11-2
012
2013
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15-2
016
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620
07-2
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Mathematics by School Poverty Quartile
CoursesAlgebra IAlgebra II
GeometryPrecalculus
Calculus
Lowest PovertyConcentration
Lower PovertyConcentration
Higher PovertyConcentration
Highest PovertyConcentration
2005
-200
620
07-2
008
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CoursesAlgebra I Algebra II
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 11
OneofthehopeswithHB5wasthatitwouldallowstudentstopursueareasofinterest.InFigure7andFigure8,Iexaminetwocoursesthatmightbeexpectedtoseeenrollmentgains:StatisticsandComputerScience.Statisticshasbeenachievingrapidgrowthforadecade,mainlyinschoolswithlowpovertyconcentration,andHB5doesnotseemtohaveaffectedthisonewayoranother.ComputerSciencedoesshowaparticularlylargegainin2014–2015through2016–2017afterHB5passed.Thismainlyaffectsschoolswiththemostaffluentstudents.
Figure7:EnrollmentinStatistics,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.
Figure8:EnrollmentinComputerScience,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.
Lowest PovertyConcentration
Lower PovertyConcentration
Higher PovertyConcentration
Highest PovertyConcentration
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620
07-2
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tStatistics by School Poverty Quartile
CoursesAP Statistics Statistics
Lowest PovertyConcentration
Lower PovertyConcentration
Higher PovertyConcentration
Highest PovertyConcentration
2005
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620
07-2
008
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11-2
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Computer Science by School Poverty Quartile
CoursesAP or IB Computer Science Computer Science
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 12
Figure9:EnrollmentinPhysics,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.
Figure10:EnrollmentinChemistry,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.
Figure9showsthehistoryofenrollmentinPhysics.Nationally,lessthan40%ofU.S.highschoolstudentstakePhysics,althoughmultipleyearsofhighschoolPhysicsarepartofthedefaulthighschoolcourseofferingsinEuropeandAsia.Texashadarrivedatthepointwhere80%ofallstudentsweretakingPhysics,whichmadeTexasstandoutamongU.S.states.ThepassageofHB5happenstohavecoincidedwiththeintroductionofanewconceptualAPPhysicsexamthatled
Lowest PovertyConcentration
Lower PovertyConcentration
Higher PovertyConcentration
Highest PovertyConcentration
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Physics by School Poverty Quartile
CoursesAP or IB Physics Physics
Lowest PovertyConcentration
Lower PovertyConcentration
Higher PovertyConcentration
Highest PovertyConcentration
2005
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620
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Chemistry by School Poverty Quartile
Courses AP or IB Chemistry Chemistry
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 13
toalargeincreaseinAPPhysicsenrollment.AfterHB5,Physicsenrollmentendeditsdecadeofrapidgrowth,butsofarhasonlydeclinedslightly.Studentsintheschoolswiththemostconcentratedpovertyarearound25%lesslikelytotakePhysicsthanstudentsinthemostaffluentschools.
ThestorywithChemistryissimilar,althoughthegrowthsince2005hadnotbeenasdramatic(Figure10).TexashasbeenofferingChemistrytoessentiallyeverystudentsincetheclassthatenteredin2011.AfterHB5passedandChemistrybecameoptional,therearesignsthatenrollmentisdecliningslightlyexceptfortherichestquarterofschools.BothChemistryandPhysicscanbecomparedwithBiology(Figure11),whichremainsrequired;Biologyisofferedtovirtuallyallhighschoolstudents,and,likemathematics,hasenrollmentclimbingslowlywithpopulationacrossallschoolgroups.
Figure11: EnrollmentinBiology,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.
Figure12: EnrollmentinIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.
Lowest PovertyConcentration
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Highest PovertyConcentration
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Courses AP or IB Biology Biology
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Lower PovertyConcentration
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Highest PovertyConcentration
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620
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008
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Integrated Physics/Chemistry by School Poverty Quartile
RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 14
ThefinalcourseconsideredisIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry,whoseenrollmentisshowninFigure12.Thesteepdeclineinenrollmentofthiscourse,whichdoesnotassistwithcollegeadmission,seemstohavehaltedafterHB5,butenrollmentremainsataverylowlevel.
CONCLUSIONS
HB5markedtheendofapushatleastadecadelongtoprepareeveryTexashighschoolstudentforpost-secondaryeducation.ThemostseriousconsequencesofaristhatthepercentageofCollegeReadyhighschoolgraduateshasplummeted.Themostseveredropshavetakenplaceforlow-income,Hispanic,andBlackstudents,althoughthedropsaffectallincome,racial,andethnicgroups.
Thepicturethatemergesofcourse-takingisnotasworrisome.Low-incomestudents,andBlackandHispanicstudents,arelesslikelytotakeadvancedSTEMcoursesthanwell-offstudents,andWhiteandAsianstudents,butHB5hasnotyetaffectedthesegaps.Mathematicscourse-takingoverallhardlyseemsaffected,despitethefactthatAlgebraIIhasnowtechnicallybecomeoptional.Ifanything,enrollmentisincreasingacrosstheboard.TheredoesseemtobeariseofenrollmentinComputerScienceandStatistics,almostallinschoolsservingtheleasteconomicallyneedystudents.EnrollmentsinPhysicsandChemistryhaveslightlyheadeddownward,buttheeffectisnotyetlarge.
Thearchitectsofthe60x30planfor60%ofyoungTexanstocompletepost-secondaryeducationby2030claimedthatachievingthissubstantialincreaseinpost-secondaryattainmentwasessentialforthefutureofTexas.The2015–2016dropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwillmakeitharderorimpossibleachieve,aswillfurtherparticipationdeclinesincoursessuchasPhysicsandChemistry.ThefutureofyoungTexansandTexasisatrisk,butitisnotyetlost.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
SarahStephensgreatlyassistedinobtaininglongitudinaldatafromtheEducationalResearchCenter.IhadmanyvaluablediscussionswithSofiaBahenaandHectorBojorquez.ThankstoAmyWintersandKimberlyReevesfornumeroussuggestionsonhowtoimproveclarityandtoMelanieHauptforproofreading.