rise of smart mobility part 1 - rise of smart mobility era

The Rise of Smart Mobility Era – Part 1

The Rise of the Smart Mobility Era

William El Kaim – May 2015

This Presentation is part of the

Enterprise Architecture Digital Codex

http://www.eacodex.com/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 3

http://www.eacodex.com/

Read the Companion Article on SKIFT

Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 4Access the Article

http://skift.com/2015/03/23/new-series-the-end-of-travel-and-the-rise-of-the-smart-mobility-era/

Lisez l’article associé à cette presentation sur TOM

Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 5Accès à l'article

http://www.tom.travel/2015/06/la-fin-du-voyage-traditionnel-et-laube-de-lere-de-la-mobilite-intelligente/

Plan

• The travel industry’s growth is correlated to GDP

• A new urbanized and connected world

• 21st Century Is The Era Of Cities

• Conquering the last mile

• Smart mobility providers for crowded cities

• The rise of smart mobility aggregators

• The start of a Mobility era

Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 6

The travel industry’s growth is

correlated to GDP


Population


In 2013 The Combined GDP Of Poor Nations

Became Greater Than The Rich Ones


GDP Forecast

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/


http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

World GDP Economic Centre Of Gravity Move To

The East and To The South


The Travel Industry’s Growth Is Correlated To GDP

• If world GDP increases by

1%, then air traffic generally

increase by 1.3%.

• It is estimated that the price

elasticity of passenger air

traffic is around -0.6 at world

level; that means that if the

average ticket price

decreases by 1% then air

traffic to increase by 0.6%


Travel Industry Growth

• the travel industry would grow 5.4% per annum for the next 10 years, outstripping global GDP.

• By 2023 the total share of global outbound expenditure is predicted to reach 20%, up from 1% in 2005.

• Elsewhere, Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey and Indonesia were cited as the markets with the biggest potential for growth.

• Chinese travelers to U.S. will rise about 140% in next 4-5 years, India 54%, Colombia 56%, Brazil 50%!


Middle Class Growing

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus


Middle Class Growing


A new urbanized and

connected world


World Urban Population

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus


Top Ten Urbanized Countries


Propensity To Travel And Urbanization Are Correlated


21st Century Is The Era Of

Cities


Rise of Megacities

While the world total population will increase from 7 to 8.3 billion people in 2030, the urbanization growth rate is expected to be 2 % per year, representing 60 % of the world population or 5 billion people in 2030


The Global South’s Rising Megacities: A Challenge

to Urban Living

http://www.southerninnovator.org/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 24

http://www.southerninnovator.org/

Megacities With More Than 10M People


USA Mega Regions


Connecting MegaCities is Key


Airport Growth Is Correlated To Population Growth

• “If the 20th Century Was The Era Of Nations, The 21st Century Is The Era Of

Cities” Lee Myungbak, former President of the Republic of Korea.

• As the world becomes more crowded, so do airports.

• ACI estimates that by 2020 there will be 7 billion passengers arriving and departing

through the world's airports. That's the entirety of today's world population.

• Airports will be under enormous pressure to accommodate growth.

• Airports have evolved as drivers of business location and urban

development in the 21st century

• In the same way as did highways in the 20th century, railroads in the 19th century

and seaports in the 18th century.

• At the largest international airports passenger terminals are morphing into

luxury shopping malls and artistic and recreational venues, as well as

locations to exchange knowledge and conduct business.


Aetropolis Origin

Aetropolis was first

proposed by New

York commercial artist

Nicholas DeSantis,

presented in the

November 1939 issue

of Popular Science:

Skyscraper Airport for

City of Tomorrow


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Popular_Science

http://books.google.com/books?id=QywDAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA70&dq=aerotropolis+popular+science&hl=en&ei=CqGYT8byCKei2wW4tYjzBg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=book-thumbnail&resnum=1&ved=0CDEQ6wEwAA

Aetropolis Vision by D. Kasarda

The term was revived and

substantially extended by

academic and air commerce

expert Dr. John D. Kasarda in

2000

• As economies become

increasingly globalized and

dependent on electronic

commerce, air commerce,

and the speed and agility it

provides to the movement of

people and goods, has become

its logistical backbone.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Kasarda

Aerotropolis vs. Airport City (Wikipedia)

• Aerotropolis

• Airport integrated urban economic region

• An urban plan in which the layout, infrastructure, and economy is centered around an

airport, existing as an airport city.

• It is similar in form and function to a traditional metropolis, which contains a central city

core and its commuter-linked suburbs.

• Airport city: business or tourism destination in its own right.

• is a term for an "inside the fence" airport area including the airport (terminals, apron, and

runways) and on-airport businesses such as air cargo, logistics, offices, retail, hotels and

even entertainment and theme parks

• Total Airports revenues target from non-aeronautical = 40–60%.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airport_city

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolis

AETROPOLIS

The airport city is at the core of

the aerotropolis

AIRPORT CITY


Kasarda's Aerotropolis Concept in Video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy3OSm1w-jYCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 33

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oy3OSm1w-jY

South Korea Aetropolis


Panatropolis – Global Hub of the new World

http://panatropolis.com/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 35

http://panatropolis.com/

Airport City Denver

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A-xCGyyJmsCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 36

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5A-xCGyyJms

Airport City Manchester

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhg5RVBidLk&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EFCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 37

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhg5RVBidLk&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF

Chopin Airport City - Poland

http://www.chopinairportcity.pl/en

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stOugdnJa_8&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EFCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 38

http://www.chopinairportcity.pl/en

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stOugdnJa_8&list=PL04720ABF9DDCD5EF

Conquering the last mile


Smart City

• Urbanization creating massive and rapid pressure on mass transit systems

• 80% of the world’s population will be living in cities by 2050.

• A growing urban middle class also creates challenges.

• Increasingly sophisticated, and web-connected consumers demand a better customer

experience in mobility.

• Proliferation of sensors

• Smartphones not only create the opportunity to provide services to users, but they are

also sensors in their own right and hence rich sources of data.

• Sensors are being installed in city to get a more precise vision of its “context”

• The need for new business model

• Just as contextual mobility creates the opportunity for a better passenger experience

and faster passenger flow, it also creates the opportunity for transport service providers

to market additional services


Smart City

• The concept of 'smarter cities'

originated in 2008, by IBM as part of

its Smarter Planet initiative.

• A Smart City should have at least

five out of the eight “smart”

parameters listed by Frost &

Sullivan.


Smart City Principles

Source: PWCCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 42

http://www.pwc.com/m1/en/publications/smartcities2014.jhtml


Live Singapore site

http://senseable.mit.edu/livesingapore/index.html

Re-programming Mobility

• In lieu of large civil infrastructure projects, transportation systems are increasingly

being augmented with a range of information technologies that make them smarter,

safer, more efficient, more integrated.

• Transformation is now being driven by the private sector.

• Companies are investing in infrastructure for mobility on a similar scale, but using very different

technology.

• All but invisible to planners and citizens alike, new communications network are

becoming the most important transportation infrastructure of our era, enabling us to re-

invent the how our roads, transit systems, and freight and logistics networks function.

• The hidden nature of these new mobility infrastructures – tiny devices in our pockets

communicating over invisible radio waves with algorithms running on servers in the

cloud – has conspired to conceal the important public policy and planning issues that

their mass adoption raises.Source: RE-PROGRAMMING MOBILITY, The Digital Transformation of Transportation in the United States, Dr. Anthony Townsend, Senior Research Scientist; Rudin Center for Transportation Policy & Management


NYC Bus Performance

http://bustime.mta.info/wiki/Developers/Index

http://nathan9.github.io/nycbusperformance/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 46

http://bustime.mta.info/wiki/Developers/Index

http://nathan9.github.io/nycbusperformance/

The End of Travel as We knew it!

• End of travel era and the beginning of the Mobility era

• People will be “mobile” and Connected all the time (domestic)

• People will leverage their context (“network”) as much as possible – social,

geographical, financial, health …

• People will travel virtually to meet and work with people abroad without risks at low cost

• Impacts

• Travel will be not be seen anymore as station to station (origin & destination, peer to

peer, etc.), or as a Tx or PNR.

• The Itinerary will no more a sheet of paper you will print out, but a living data

aggregation piece.

• The future

• Moving towards integrated mobility with a number of new mobility suppliers, and

disruptive digital business models.

• The "omnia illico" era (Everything Now !).


Smart mobility providers

for crowded cities


Mobility Player: Leap Transit

http://leaptransit.com/site.phpCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 49

http://leaptransit.com/site.php

Mobility Player: Leap Transit

http://leaptransit.com/site.phpCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 50

http://leaptransit.com/site.php

PADAM – Night Shared Bus in Paris

http://padambus.com/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 51

http://padambus.com/

Meinfernbus

http://meinfernbus.de/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 52

http://meinfernbus.de/

Veniam

https://www.veniam.com/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 53

https://www.veniam.com/

Transdev

http://www.transdev.com/en/multi-modal-offer/transport-modes/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 54

http://www.transdev.com/en/multi-modal-offer/transport-modes/

Xerox Transportation

http://www.services.xerox.com/transportation-solutions/enus.htmlCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 55

http://www.services.xerox.com/transportation-solutions/enus.html

The Future Of Transport Is About Sharing

The 20 largest bicycle sharing systems in the world. Three are in Europe (Paris, London, Barcelona), two are in North America (New York and Toronto), the other 15 are in China. Data: Earth Policy Institute, 2013!

Source UrbanTimesCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 56

http://urbantimes.co/magazine/2013/12/future-transport-sharing/

Audi UNITE

• Unite, a car-sharing pilot program (currently only available in Stockholm).

• The program allows up to five people to share “ownership” of an Audi via a

smartphone scheduling app, which allows all owners to reserve the vehicle,

see the car’s location and even check fuel levels.

• Aside from the app, owners receive a beacon to attach to their key ring,

which electronically tracks personal usage.

https://www.audiunite.com/se/service/en_unite.htmlCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 57

https://www.audiunite.com/se/service/en_unite.html

https://www.audiunite.com/se/service/en_unite.html

Mercedes Driverless Prototype

https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz/innovation/research-vehicle-f-015-luxury-in-motion/Copyright © William El Kaim 2016 58

https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz/innovation/research-vehicle-f-015-luxury-in-motion/

Velib’ in Paris France

Source: Urban TimesCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 62

http://futurecapetown.com/2013/07/watch-tel-aviv-bike-shares/

CityBike in New York


Smart Scooter

Smart, the Daimler brand that makes the ultra-compact Smart Car, announced its 5.4-horsepower Smart Scooter

Use your iPhone as the console


http://www.autoblog.com/2012/06/24/smart-bringing-electric-scooter-to-u-s-in-2014-will-be-part-of/

Wattmobile : Electric Vehicle at French Railway

Stations


Driverless Car


Urban Transport Pods

• Human operator interacts

with the pod using a

touchscreen in the

windshield.

• Swipe to select a

destination, and use the

built-in wireless hotspot to

connect your gadgets.

• The pod operates on its

own, showing its current

route.

Already being used in Masdar City in Abu Dhabi and at the London Heathrow airport, but both are used in tightly controlled areas.

LUTZ is a system of driverless cars, or pods, that will be deployed in Milton Keynes, a town northeast of London

Video


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KGIsvLpdF-g

Hitachi's ROPITS tablet-controlled, self-driving

urban vehicle


The rise of smart mobility

aggregators


The rise of smart mobility aggregators

• Market will see new players termed Mobility Aggregator (MA) emerged

• Entity which offers a selection of mobility services as core business either as standalone

providers or through partnerships. Source: Frost and Sullivan


http://fr.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan/future-of-mobility-16093656

NS Business Card

• 5% of business travelers use the train, while 95% use other modes of

transportation, mainly cars, thereby opening up a number of avenues for NS

to innovate.

• The transit payment system that the NS Business Card employed on a

national level, focuses on flexible post-paid payments rather than on a pre-

paid system

http://www.ns.nl/en/business/products/the-new-ns-business-card.htmlCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 72

http://www.ns.nl/en/business/products/the-new-ns-business-card.html

The start of a mobility era


Welcome To The Mobility Era

Mobility is about

seamless travel using

all of the various modes

of transportation

available rather than

relying solely on one

transportation mode.

Source: Frost and Sullivan



Key Resources

• Genius presentation by Frost & Sullivan’s

• Future of Mobility—New Business Models, Opportunities, and Market Entrants in

Mobility Integration (slideshare)

• Future of mobility video teaser (youtube)

• Connected World – Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains,

World Economic Forum.

• The smart mobility management review.

• Re-programming Mobility: The Digital Transformation of Transportation in the

United States



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKp-G14TA78

http://www.weforum.org/issues/connected-world-transforming-travel-transportation-and-supply-chains

http://www.smart-mobilitymanagement.com/

http://reprogrammingmobility.org/

Twitter

http://www.twitter.com/welkaim

SlideShare

http://www.slideshare.net/welkaim

EA Digital Codex


Linkedin

http://fr.linkedin.com/in/williamelkaim

Claudine O'SullivanCopyright © William El Kaim 2016 82




http://fr.linkedin.com/in/williamelkaim

http://www.claudineosullivan.com/