risk and vulnerability assessment analysis in distribution networks workshop thursday, 3 june 2010...
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Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Analysis in Distribution Networks
Workshop Thursday, 3 June 2010 Hungarian
Energy Office
Peter Albertsson, Sweden
Continuity of supply I
1930s
• Locally produced
• Intermittent supply
• Light
• Radios
No problem with long
interruptions
Continuity of supply II1960s
• National grid
• Thunderstorm black-outs
• Light, Radio, TV
• Pumps, elevators etc.
• Preserving food
Frequent hour-long
interruptions
Continuity of supply III2010s
• International grid
• Weather black-outs
• Information
• Heat, water, food
• Machinery
• Life support
Interruptions unwanted!
Hurricane Gudrun ISaturday January 8 2005
> 0 C
> 43 m/s winds hit the coast
> 30 m/s over land
730,000 powerless by
midnight
380,000 after one day
230,000 after three days
130,000 after one week
60,000 after three weeks
Hurricane Gudrun IIGetting rid of fallen trees
Temporarily repairing the
lines
5000 men from Sweden,
another 300 electricians
from neighboring
countries
Military, volunteers
DSOs knew what to do – but
had not enough men!
Hurricane Gudrun III60,000 powerless after
three weeks
Power back to all except
some summer houses
after forty days
Restore grids
permanently: cables
instead of overhead
lines (still going on)
Gudrun IV: After the stormAmendments to the Law
• Reimbursements from 12
h
• Risk- and vulnerability
assessment
• Action plan
• Information to customers
And from 1 January 2011:
• No outage > 24 h
Ever increasing need forbetter continuity of supply
Systematic search for grid
weaknesses
• Risk and
Vulnerability
assessment (RVA)• Asset management
(future possibility)
Risk assessment: no noveltyRisk analysis of
technological systems
IEC 60300-3-9 (1995)
• Preliminary Hazard
Analysis
• Fault- / event-trees
• FMEA
Risk assessment: the latest
A little more general
Of less specific use for us
I would still recommend
IEC 60300-3-9
General Risk matrix
Risk is
The combination of the frequency, or probability
of occurrence and the consequence of a
specified hazardous event
(IEC 60-300-3-9:1995)Consequence
ProbabilityFrequency
Consequence
ProbabilityFrequency
Swedish specific Risk matrix
The most common black-out reasons:
- Weather (wind, snow, thunderstorms)
- Failing equipment (ageing)- Construction (digging)
Note the difference between risk andperceived risk in upper right corner!The owner of the substation is not
thecompany who is dependent of it and
didthis risk assessment.
Technology related viewDifferent approaches:
1. Lines – the grid itself
2. Stations – components
3. Complexity – grid
redundancy
4. Organisation
Preliminary Hazard Analysis• Systematic brainstorm
technique
• Experience needed
• Teamwork – the more
different competences the
better
• Good overview – no details
• Initial screening
• Pitfall: solution orientation
SE Lessons learnt I: Legislation• Output regulation
(result oriented)
• Established method(E.g. IEC standard)
• Documentation
• Reports to EI(including confidentiality)
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3Scope:
Distribution, Transmission < 220
kV
Topics:
Introduction and definitions
Analysis: what to do and achieve,
suggested methods from
standards,
how to visualize (e.g. risk matrix),
advise on documentation.
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3Topics (continued):
Action plans (scheduled)
Vulnerability based criteria:
• Number of customers
• Non delivered power (MW)
• Non delivered energy
(kWh)
• Time to get up and running
• (Society vulnerability)
SE Lessons learnt II: Implementation• Co-operate
• Meet
• Educate
• Listen
• Acknowledge
• Share good practices
• Share good examples
Regulation EI-FS 2010:3DSO’s annual report
Which method for the risk analysis (with source)?
Which way to visualize, assess and rank risks?
How many risks (in four groups) – identified and to action plan?
Circumstances giving problems to “no outages longer than 24 h”?
How many actions shall be taken?
Are the actions on time?
SE Lessons learnt III: Future supervision• Checking that the RVA is
done
• Monitoring the data of interruptions / continuity of supply
• Bad performance leads to
1. Contact
2. Visit
3. Checking what was done
4. Demands
Asset management: PAS 55:2008Management system
Managing physical assets
to maintain or reinvest
right
Compare:
ISO 14000 for environment
ISO 9000 for quality
Network companies are certified by 3rd party
Asset management ISO standard
BSI has invited
40 delegates plan to come
End of April cancelled
(ash)
15 – 18 June, London
Beginning of preliminary
work
Acknowledgements and thanks• IEC / BSI / IAM / ISO
• Lines: Öresund Safety
• Stations: Fortum
• Complexity: Grontmij
• Organisation: SEAB,Staffanstorp, Skåne
• Preliminary Hazard analysis: Boden Energi Elnät
• UK: Ofgem