Risk assessment of air pollutioneffects on Mediterraneanecosystems in Spain

EMEP – WGE 4th joint sessionGeneva, 10-14th September 2018

Ignacio González Fernández, Rocío Alonso, Susana Elvira, Javier Sanz, Héctor CalveteSogo, Héctor García Gómez, Fernando Valiño, Isaura Rábago, Victoria Bermejo Bermejo

Spanish contribution to scientific ICP/TFs

Contributionfrom Spain

This presentation...

Air pollution effects on Mediterranean ecosystems

kg N km-2 yr-1

AOT40 forests (Apr-Sept) 2013 Total N deposition 2009 (EMEP)

Subtantial modelled N dep in someareas of the Mediterranean region –

moderate/low risk

CLO3 exceeded in large areas of theMediterranean region –

large risk and predicted impacts

EEA, 2016<=5000 ppb.h5000 – 10000 ppb.h10000 -15000 ppb.h15000 – 25000 ppb.h> 25000 ppb.h

Tropospheric ozone (O3)

Eutrophication (Ndep)

N effects detected even though low modelled deposition values:

Underestimation of N dep?Lack of empirical CLN for Med

ecosystemsRisk to Med ecosystems?

Air pollution effects on Mediterranean ecosystems

Large risks and expected impacts (AOT40 and POD6) apparently

not found under field conditions: Over-estimation O3 dose?

Over-estimation CLO3?

EEA, 2016

Tropospheric ozone (O3)

Eutrophication (Ndep)

EMEP

Risk assessment methodologies within the Air Convention should represent adequately Mediterranean ecosystems and crops:

1. Sensitivity of Mediterranean ecosystems, species and cultivars (CLN and CLO3)

2. Deposition of pollutants(PODy and N dep maps)

3. Mediterranean climate (drought, climate change)

Risk assessment of air pollution effects

Mapping Manual (2017) Chapter 3

O3 flux-based risk assessment

O3 sensitivity of Med ecosystems, species and crops• Achievements : 8 CLO3 for Med vegetation types included in Chptr 3

of Modelling & Mapping Manual (v2017)• Needs: New Med vegetation types (wheat cultivars, leafy

crops, semi-natural vegetation) Include O3 x N x climate interactions

Experimental data is crucial but facilities are closing across Europe

O3 flux-based risk assessment

PODy estimation for Med ecosystems, species and crops

• Achievements:

5 model parameterizations for estimation of PODy

• Needs:

New model parameterizations for Med vegetationtypes (leafy crops, semi-natural vegetation)

Improve PODy estimation in soil moisture limitedareas (ICP-Vegetation + EMEP MSC-W)

Soil moisture limited areas: improving O3 dose modellingICP-Vegetation + EMEP MSC-W

EEA, 2016

Change summer drought severity1961-1990 vs 2020-2050

O3 flux-based risk assessment

Soil moisture is currently an important driver of PODy in many regions

WITH SOIL MOISTURE

WITHOUT SOIL MOISTURE

• Detailed PODy comparisons between EMEP model and field monitoring sites with different vegetation types

• Participants from Spain, Italy, Switzerland from ICP-Vegetation, ICP-Forests and EMEP MSC-W

Map of mediterranean field monitoring sites

Soil moisture limited areas: improving O3 dose modellingICP-Vegetation + EMEP MSC-W

O3 flux-based risk assessment

xx

x

• Testing ECMWF SMI used by EMEP model• Few long-term monitoring sites measuring soil moisture

2010 – 2015 SMI

Soil moisture limited areas: improving O3 dose modellingICP-Vegetation + EMEP MSC-W

O3 flux-based risk assessment

Next steps:• How is Med vegetation responding to SMI? Current

EMEP model includes only a generic parameterization

Soil moisture limited areas: improving O3 dose modellingICP-Vegetation + EMEP MSC-W

O3 flux-based risk assessment

DehesasEncinares

N dep estimation for Med ecosystems

Risk assessment N deposition

Wet depositionNHyNOx

Dry depositionNHyNOx

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

CB TC CA LC

Dep

ósito

tota

l (kg

N h

a-1

año-

1 )To

tal d

epos

ition

(kg

N h

a-1y-1

)

Validation of modelled N dep withfield observations in Spain:Empirical inferential model for drydeposition (Bytnerowicz et al., 2015, ENVPOL)

García-Gómez et al., 2018, ENVPOL

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0 5 10 15 20 25

Mod

els

Empirical Inferential Method

Dry deposition (kg N / ha)

EMEP

CHIMERE

Models underestimate drydeposition at forest sites

DRY DEPOSITION

>75%

Empirical CLN exceedance forests of N2K sites (ensembleof 7 models) Vivanco et al., 2018, ACP.; García-Gómez et a., 2018, 7th ICP-Forest sci. conf.

Notcorrected

Dry depcorrected forMed sites

BUT... Empirical CLN not available for Mediterraneanecosystems, thus this risk assessment is uncertain

N dep estimation for Med ecosystems

Risk assessment N deposition

Looking for a forum for discussion and furtherdevelopment of empirical CLN

Risk assessment N deposition

N sensitivity of Med ecosystems• Needs: CLN derived for Mediterranean ecosystems based on

limited data but new info available Correct estimation of N dry dep

for accurate derivation of CLN Homogenize methodology for

empirical CLN derivation

Bobbink and Hetteling 2011, CCE

Summary

Spain has contributed over +30 years to derive CLO3 for Mediterranean ecosystems, species and crop cultivars and is willing to contribute to future empirical CLN revisions

Current gaps:

Missing Mediterranean ecosystem and vegetation types in CL: new data available for updating

Deposition modelling improvement in Mediterranean areas (soil moisture and N dry deposition)

Take home messages

Challenges ahead: O3 x N x climate change interactions

Experiments, monitoring and modelling are all needed:

Experimental sites disappearing – encourage member parties to support

Monitoring sites continue providing time series for model checking and validation

Regional modelling approaches can provide further insights in risk assessment

The N effects experimental community need a forum of discussion within existing ICPs/TFs

Thank you!

ignacio.gonzalez@ciemat.es

Acknowledgements:

Cargas y Niveles Críticos, MITECOAGRISOST, Com. Madrid S2013/ABI-2717EDEN-Med, CGL2017-84687-C2-1-RCONcumbres – Fundación Biodiversidad