risk balanced portfolios jim morrison

9
Jimmy Phillips – People Forum and Engagement Survey Results Jim Morrison Risk Balanced Portfolios

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Presentation at APM event Communicating risk across the project portfolio, 4th July 2013

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Page 1: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Jimmy Phillips – People Forum and Engagement Survey Results

Jim Morrison

Risk Balanced Portfolios

Page 2: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Portfolio Owners

Portfolio of projects

Annual budgets

Page 3: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Risk Analysis – A Single Project

Risk Registers

Project Plans

Cost Breakdown

“21% chance of delivering by ……”

“38% chance of staying under budget”

“90% chance of ROI being…”

Page 4: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Risk Analysis - Portfolios

Uncertain costs

Uncertain durations

50%

90%

10%Risk Based Portfolio Forecast

Page 5: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Scenario Modelling

Move project starts

Page 6: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Scenario Modelling

Move project startsCompress project schedules

Page 7: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Scenario Modelling

Move project startCompress project schedulesBalance Portfolio

Page 8: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Considerations

1. How much detail is enough?2. Bespoke software?3. When in project lifecycle?4. When in portfolio lifecycle?5. Correlation

6. (Unintended) consequences?7. Project outputs8. Linkage to portfolio value

delivery9. Iteration?

Page 9: Risk balanced portfolios   Jim Morrison

Jim MorrisonPrincipal Consultant

www.rheadgroup.com07595 905225