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Nautilus ConsultantsNatural resource economists

www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk

Crick Carleton

Risk-based assessment techniques

Focus of discussions

Core issues

• Before getting into the differing merits of probability modelling, simulations and indices, let’s remind ourselves of the intended outcomes of our efforts – let’s ground ourselves in the world of the practical – to achieve real improvements in accessibility to sustainable fisheries management

• Sustainable management of fisheries is a reasonable objective and expectation for all – whether or not fish are being sold into markets that are responsive to the benefits of certification

• For most fisheries – whether in developed or developing countries – data volume and quality remain issues, even for the most heavily researched fisheries

Key rationale – to improve management of fisheries• Providing improved, and regularly updated, information on stock

condition / status allows managers and fishermen to make more informed decisions, and to adapt harvest strategies to changed / changing conditions

• For most fish stocks or local fishing conditions it is not feasible to undertake stock assessments of the form and detail traditionally advocated by ICES and equivalents

• But there are a range of existing and emerging tools that could be used to describe stock condition, and allow for improvements in the management of fisheries, for most if not all of these other fisheries

• What these tools are forms perhaps half of what we will talk about today; the other half is to identify to what extent these tools are likely to meet the requirements of a range of client types (including public recognition through certification and benchmarking)

Adaptive management loop –equivalent to MSC Principle 1

monitoring and

information

determine stock status

compare to reference

points

undertake management

actions as defined in

HCR

the management

loopmonitoring and

information

determine stock status stock

assessment

compare to reference points

undertake management

actions as defined in HCR

set reference points

agree management

strategy & HCR

the starting

pointmonitoring

and information

determine stock status stock

assessmentthe

essential baseline

set reference points

agree management

strategy & HCR

initial periodic review

Prejudice against small-scale

The privileges of political and commercial scale• Most clients want to employ best practice in the management of

their fisheries – notably to maintain the health of the fish stock, but also to allow harvesting at a consistent and optimal level (for stock, costs and revenues)

• For the large commercially important stocks, stock assessment procedures are well established – but there remain problems with

• the quality of data available, • inconsistent use of reference points, and • a low priority given to setting harvest strategies and harvest control

rules

• But for many more (smaller scale) fisheries, • the commercial / trans-boundary imperatives to undertake stock

assessment have been less evident or absent, and assessments are either non-existent, or incomplete

• For most of these fisheries, up until recently stock assessment has not been a practical or cost-effective option

• Risk-based methodologies offer a way around this

Certification - does it matter?• There is much talk about certification, and particularly its use in

mobilising consumer power to encourage good practice

• This tends to focus on developed country consumers – on supplies from local sources plus imports

• International trade is significant – therefore certification can be a significant force for good, but tends to link through to systems that employ economies of scale, and well-organised supply systems –and thus excludes small-scale production systems

• Small scale production systems provide income to more fishermenand more fishermen’s households than all larger scale systems; they also provide food / essential protein to more people than larger scale systems

• There are therefore considerations of equity, poverty alleviation and socio-economics to the inclusion of small-scale and data-poor fisheries into certification

Issues associated with certification

Small-scale / traditional systems don’t meet grade• Consumer behaviour and CSR concerns in the supply chain are

having considerable impact with regard to certification and traffic light listings

• But many small-scale production systems – primarily associated with inshore fisheries – are largely excluded from these certification schemes (stock status is not recorded), or come out badly in traffic light listings (little relevant information)

• The reasons behind this are various:

– there is little documentation of status and practice

– management infrastructure is poor

– traditional systems have not kept up with the times

– research resources have been focused on the large trans-nationalstocks

– until recently stocks were under-exploited, and so management was not such a priority issue

Standards are restrictive, but can be over restrictive• The components of the MSC standard (the Principles and Criteria) provide a

good template for certification and listings standards

• The vast majority of P2 – bycatch and habitat / ecosystem impacts are addressed through conventional measurement or using the MSC Risk-Based Framework for P2 (based on the Australian / Hobday work)

• Use of the MSC Risk-Based Framework for P1 is more controversial – it can be reasonably argued that it can only be applied to lightly exploited fisheries, and even these would be required to undertake conventional stockassessment during the period of validity of the certificate

• Most other existing standards would mark down or disqualify fisheries where no stock assessment existed, though many would not be as critical as the MSC standard with respect to use of reference points, harvest strategy and harvest control rules

• In a similar vein, stock assessment scientists are uncomfortable giving advice on fishery management, but for small-scale and/or lightly researched stocks / fisheries, they may be in the best position to provide such advice

Standard MSC assessment tree

Principle 1 –Species / stockPrinciple 1 –

Species / stockPrinciple 2 -EnvironmentPrinciple 2 -Environment

Principle 3 –Fishery management


statusstatus managementmanagement retained catchretained catch fish. specificmngt system

fish. specificmngt systemgovernance &

policy

governance & policyETPETP ecosystemecosystem

90

recovery & rebuilding


reference points

reference points

stock statusstock status

assessmentassessment

information / monitoring


harvest control rule(s) & tools


performance of harvest strategy


monitoring & evaluation


fishery specific objectives


incentivesincentives

long-term objectives & precaution


consultation, roles & responsibilities


legal /customeryframework

legal /customeryframework

compliance & enforcement


decision-making processes

decision-making processesinformationinformation

managementmanagement

statusstatus

research planresearch plan

informationinformation


statusstatus



statusstatus



statusstatus



statusstatus

bycatchbycatch habitathabitat

– need three greens at Principle level to pass

well above 80 thresholdat or above 80 threshold

well below 80 thresholdbelow 60 – automatic fail

slightly below 80 threshold

Meeting client requirements

Range of client typesSituation where government is committed to sustainable management but does not have the capacity to undertake stock assessments – e.g. The Gambia artisanal sole fishery

Stocks where there is commercial sector interest to progress sustainable management, but cannot rely on government capacity to take the matter forward – e.g. the Suriname seabob fishery

Small-scale fisheries where there is next to no documentary record of the fishery, and no history of research on the fishery, but where the fishery is considered to be well-managed – e.g. The Gambia artisanal sole fishery

Small-scale multi-species, multi-gear fisheries where any thought of stock assessment is dismissed on the basis of complexity – e.g. a typical reef fishery or inshore trawl fishery

Shellfish fisheries where size cannot be used as a surrogate for age – e.g. brown crab fisheries

A situation where a small fishery (relative to overall stock) is operating responsibly, but the actions of others compromises stock status – the client can control local activity, but not that of others – e.g. Sussex Sea Fishery Committee, St Helena tuna fisheries, Cornwall sardine fishery

Examples

Standard assessment tree


Species / stock

Principle 2 -EnvironmentPrinciple 2 -Environment



statusstatus managementmanagement

retained catchretained catch

fish. specificmngt system


policy

governance & policy

ETPETP ecosystemecosystem


deals with a biological stock or a managed sub-component

deal with the fishery under assessment


Species / stockPrinciple 2 -EnvironmentPrinciple 2 -Environment



well above 80 thresholdat or above 80 threshold

well below 80 thresholdbelow 60 – automatic fail

slightly below 80 threshold

statusstatus managementmanagement retained catchretained catch fish. specificmngt system


policy

governance & policyETPETP ecosystemecosystem

90



stock statusstock status

reference points

reference points

assessmentassessment











incentivesincentives





legal / customary framework

legal / customary framework



decision-making processes

decision-making processesinformationinformation


statusstatus

research planresearch plan



statusstatus



statusstatus



statusstatus



statusstatus


P1.1 stock

condition

P2.2 discarded

catch

P1.2 harvest strategy

P2.1 retained

catch

P2.3 ETP

interactions

P2.5 ecosystem

impacts

P3.2 management

system

P2.4 habitat impacts

P3.1 fishery policy

The Fisheries selected pre-assessment(16 species, and 26 fisheries in all)

Nautilus ConsultantsNatural resource economists

www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk

Crick Carleton

Thank You

Moving to flexible adaptive management regimes• One major reason for this is that they tend to be managed through

more traditional systems (wise men, rule of thumb, consensus) which, when the fisheries were only lightly exploited, worked pretty well

• But as fisheries have become more heavily exploited, and technological change and access to the market economy provide both the means and the incentive to over-exploit, these more traditional, slower moving, systems have been less able to control or moderate these excesses

• What is needed is a more adaptive management regime – where decisions are made on the basis of current stock status information

• Risk-based approaches to stock assessment can yield this sort of information – at an appropriate level of detail, using techniques that managers can have confidence in, and at low cost and delivered in a relatively short period of time

• Such information can form the basis of a practical adaptive management regime

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