risk-based pipeline route optimization for the persian gulf … · · 2014-06-04project...
TRANSCRIPT
Risk-Based Pipeline Route Optimization for the Persian Gulf Region
Scott ByronExxonMobil Exploration Co. &
Master’s Candidate, Penn State University MGIS Program
2010 ESRI Petroleum Users Group ConferenceFebruary 23, 2010
Presentation Overview
• Project overview
• Analysis methodology
• Results & Conclusion
Courtesy: NASA
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Project Overview
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Project Objectives
• Proof of concept
• Create risk maps by Identifying & weighting analysis risk factors
• Test system against existing pipelines
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Qatar – Abu Dhabi – Oman PipelineCourtesy: Oil & Gas Journal
• New pipelines will encounter high-risk environments
• People can easily perceive risks
• Risk management improves project performance
• Must apply internal safety & risk management policies
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Why Focus on Risk?
0m
~90m (Approx. depth of Persian Gulf)
2,863m-1,788m
Key Map
The Persian Gulf region topography & bathymetry
• Availability of experts
• No marine examples
• Reliance on public data
• Expectation that low risk path will equate to shortest, lowest cost path
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Constraints
0m
~90m (Approx. depth of Persian Gulf)
2,863m-1,788m
Key Map
The Persian Gulf region topography & bathymetry
Analysis Methodology
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• 36 risk factors identified
• 19 – terrestrial, 11 – marine, 6 - both
• Divided into 4 categories
Risk Factor Identification
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Construction10 risks
Operation13 risks
Socio-Economic7 risks
Environmental6 risks
Risk Categories
Formal Risk Analysis
• Probability of Occurrence & Potential Impact scores combined for Risk Score
• High priority risks have Risk Score >= 3.0
• High priority risks used in weighting methods
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Risk Scores
Risk Count
= High Priority Risks
1 2 3
1 1.5 2.5 3.5
2 2.0 3.0 4.0
3 2.5 3.5 4.5
Potential Impact
Prob
abili
ty o
f O
ccur
renc
e
1 2 3
1 4 8 6
2 2 2 6
3 2 3 3
Potential Impact
Prob
abili
ty o
f O
ccur
renc
e
Weighting MethodologySimple Weighted Index
• Factors evaluated independently
• Evaluated 21 risks
Incr
easi
ngris
k
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Index Factor
4.5 A
4.0 B
3.5 C
3.0 D
• Evaluating Brown & Peterson method, Analytical Hierarchy Process
• Factors compared to each other
• Data collected via survey
• Fewer risks evaluated
Factor C
Factor B
Factor C
Factor A
Factor A
Factor B
<
<
>
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Weighting MethodologyPair-Based Comparison Overview
Factor A
Factor B> Factor
C>
• Captures selection frequency
• Is row factor riskier than column factor?
• No factor categories
• Simple calculation of weights
A B C D
A 8 5 2
B 2 5 6
C 5 5 4
D 8 4 6
15 17 16 12
30 30 30 30
0.500 0.567 0.533 0.400Weight
Factors
Fact
ors
Column Sums
Max. selection #
Factor ‘s column sumMaximum selection # = Weight
Frequency matrix for 10 respondents
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Weighting MethodologyBrown & Peterson Method
• Captures Degree of importance (How much riskier?) on scale of 1 – 7 (similar – significantly riskier)
• Weights categories
• Uses matrix similar to BP method
• Weights categories
• Complex weight calculation
Analysis Problem
Category 1 Category 2
Factor A
Factor B
Factor C
Factor D
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Weighting MethodologyAnalytical Hierarchy Process
Weighting
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Weighting MethodologyAnalytical Hierarchy Process
A B C D
A 3 5 1
B 0.333 0.25 0.143
C 0.2 4 0.2
D 1 7 4
Factors
Fact
ors
1. Sum each column2. Divide all cell values by column sum3. Sun each row4. Divide all row sums by smallest row
sum 5. Divide by combined row sums6. Multiply by Category weights, repeat
steps 4 & 5
FactorC
Weight = 6.1
FactorA
Weight = 4.28
Analysis Problem
Category 1Weight = 1.00
Category 2Weight = 1.5
FactorD
Weight = 4.52
FactorB
Weight = 1.00
Steps
Results
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Top High Priority Risks
Seismic
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Commercial Shipping
Landslide
Steep Slope (>5%)
Crossings Reefs & Spill Windows
Low High Low High Low High
High risk areas River, road, rail or pipe Spill response window (2 day)Coral reefs
• Further loss of ocean –land distinction
• Exaggerated risk variation
Final Risk SurfacesSimple Weighted Index Brown & Peterson Analytical Hierarchy Process
0 0.424 0 0.466 0 0.514
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• Land riskier than ocean due to higher number of land risks
• Zagros has highest risk
• Less ocean – land distinction
• Zagros is riskiest
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ValidationIGAT 4 Pipeline
• Land oil pipeline
• Crosses mountains, active earthquake area
• ~$1 billion
Key Map
The IGAT 4 pipeline, Iran
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ValidationIGAT 4 Pipeline
• SWI shortest, has greater slope variability
• BP, AHP have best match
• Key risks: seismic, slope, landslide, crossings
Alignments on BP Risk Map
Key Map
CriteriaIGAT 4
PipelineStraight-
lineSWI
AlignmentBP
AlignmentAHP
AlignmentLength (km) 635 547 620 696 694
Length of pipeline (km) within seismic risk environment (peak horizontal acceleration)
1.6 - 2.4 cm/s 2 164 1 92 245 2382.4 - 3.2 cm/s 2 264 211 370 301 2893.2 - 4.0 cm/s 2 206 215 158 150 158
> 4.0 cm/s 2 0 120 0 0 0Length of pipeline by slope categories (km)
< 5% (preferred) 400 265 469 573 5665 - 15% 182 214 123 108 113
15 - 30% 53 68 28 15 1530% + 4 6 0 0 0
Number of crossingsPipelines 3 8 5 4 4
Rivers 3 7 2 2 8Roads 34 18 35 38 37
Number of urban areas crossed 3 1 1 1 12010 ESRI PUG Conference
ValidationIGAT 4 Pipeline
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ValidationDolphin Pipeline
• Marine gas pipeline
• Crosses highly developed area
• $3.5 billion
Key Map
The Dolphin Pipeline, Qatar - UAE
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ValidationDolphin Pipeline
• SWI has best match
• BP, AHP similar, but route southward
• Key risks: commercial shipping, pipeline crossings, coral reefs & spill windows
Alignments on SWI Risk Map
Key Map
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ValidationDolphin Pipeline
CriteriaDolphin Pipeline
Straight-line
SWI Alignment
BP Alignment
AHP Alignment
Length (km) 364 346 361 470 469Length of pipeline (km) within low seismic risk environment (peak horizontal ground acceleration of 1.6 - 2.4 cm/s2)
197 191 190 111 111
Length of pipeline within spill window (km) 15 11 10 15 15Length of pipeline within commercial shipping threat zone (km)
Moderate 203 135 89 46 46Low 160 208 270 314 313
Number of pipeline crossings 15 19 18 11 11Number of coral reefs crossed 2 2 2 1 1Number of urban areas crossed 1 1 0 1 1
Conclusion
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Learnings
• Risk approach is valid
• Lowest risk path: pair-based• Shortest path: SWI
• Data quality impacts results
• Finer resolution needed
• Reevaluate some factors for coverage and weight
Questions?
Dubai, UAE
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Appendix
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List of Risk FactorsHigh Priority Risk Factors Analyzed by all Weighting Methods
Category RiskProbability of Occurrence
Potentia l Impact
Risk Score/SWI Weight
BP Weight
AHP Weight
Socio-Economic Contam ination of water supply 1 3 3.5 0.565 3.364Operational Corrosion from sea spray 3 2 3.5 0.130 1.260Construction Cost of building over high slopes 3 3 4.5 0.556 4.137Construction Cost of excessive river , rail, pipeline or road crossings 2 3 4.0 0.417 2.668Construction Cost of urban construction 3 3 4.5 0.685 5.628Operational Damage from commercial ship traffic (anchors and collisions) 2 3 4.0 0.870 6.000
Operational Damage from seismic activi ty 3 3 4.5 0.269 10.833Operational Damage from shifting sand dunes 1 3 3.5 0.185 1.860Operational Damage from unstable Sabkha surface 1 3 3.5 0.444 1.433Environmental Damage to cora l reefs 3 2 3.5 0.574 2.416Operational Damage to footings from wave activity 2 3 4.0 0.157 4.930Environmental Damage to forest environment 2 3 4.0 0.750 1.000
Socio-Economic Impact to agr icu lture (limited use on Right of W ay) 2 3 4.0 0.389 2.022Socio-Economic Pollution of populated areas 1 3 3.5 0.611 3.974Construction Route too close to existing oil infrastructure 3 2 3.5 0.389 2.665Construction Shallow or surface bedrock requires blasting 1 3 3.5 0.407 2.522Environmental Spill pollutes environmentally sensitive area - assumes pipel ine fa ilure 2 3 4.0 0.407 2.507Operational Threat from landslides (high slope) 1 3 3.5 0.676 6.747
Additional High Priority Risk Factors Analyzed by SWI Weighting MethodEnvironmental Damage to wetlands 2 2 3.0 -- --
Environmental Damage to shrub/grassland environment 2 2 3.0 -- --
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List of Risk Factors (Con’t)Additional Unweighted Risks
Category RiskProbability of Occurrence
Potentia l Impact Risk Score
Operational Damage due to objects dropped from platforms/supply ships 2 1 2.0Socio-Economic Damage to historical or archaeological sites 1 2 2.5Environmenta l Degradation o f landscape 1 1 1.5Construction Excessive span lengths 1 2 2.5Operational Hydrodynamic instability from seafloor currents 1 2 2.5Operational Internal pressure variability from extreme external tem peratures 3 1 2.5Construction Limited ava ilability of power 1 1 1.5Socio-Economic Minim ize degradation of recreation/tourist areas 2 1 2.0Socio-Economic Minim ize interference with fisheries 3 1 2.5Socio-Economic Repositioning of util ities due to utility congestion 1 1 1.5Construction Route crosses lake 1 2 2.5Construction Route too close to military installa tions 1 1 1.5Construction ROW width - insufficient width for construction equipment 1 2 2.5Operational ROW width - Insufficient main tenance corridor 1 2 2.5Operational ROW width - limited access to pipeline 1 2 2.5Operational ROW width - Unable to expand pipeline 1 2 2.5
Applying AHP in Weighting GIS Model Criteria. Retrieved from http://www.innovativegis.com/basis/Supplements/BM_Sep_03/T39_3_AHPsupplement.htm
Brown T.C., & Peterson G.L. (2009). An enquiry into the method of paired comparison: Reliability; scaling; and thurstone's law of comparative judgment. USDA Forest Service - General Technical Report RMRS-GTR. (216 RMRS-GTR), 1-98. http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr216.pdf
Longley, P. A., Goodchild, M. F., MaGuire, D. J. & Rhind, D. W. (2005). Geographic Information Systems and Science, 2nd Ed.. London: John Wiley& Sons, Ltd..
Resources
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Montemurro D., Barnett S., & Gale T. (1998). GIS-based process helps TransCanada select best route for expansion line. Oil and Gas Journal. 96(25), 63-71.
Saaty T.L., Vargas L.G., and Dellmann K. 2003. The allocation of intangible resources: The analytic hierarchy process and linear programming. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences. 37 (3):169-184.
Pipelines
Braestrup, Mikael W. Design and Installation of Marine Pipelines.. Blackwell Publishing. Online version available at:http://knovel.com.ezaccess.libraries.psu.edu/web/portal/browse/display?_EXT_KNOVEL_DISPLAY_bookid=1384&VerticalID=0
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Resources (Con’t)
Guo, Boyun; Song, Shanhong; Chacko, Jacob; Ghalambor, Ali Offshore Pipelines. Elsevier. Online version available at:http://knovel.com.ezaccess.libraries.psu.edu/web/portal/browse/display?_EXT_KNOVEL_DISPLAY_bookid=1258&VerticalID=0
Data
Global Seismic Hazard Program. (2009 August 27). Middle East Hazard Map. Retrieved from: http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/
National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis. (2009, August 2). Commercial Activity (Shipping) Dataset. Retrieved from: http://www.nceas.ucsb.edu/GlobalMarine/impacts
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Resources (Con’t)
NationMaster.com. (2009, September 22). Oil Consumption (per Capita) (Most Recent) by Country. Retrieved from: http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con_percap-energy-oil-consumption-per-capita
Tupper, M., Tewfik, A., Tan, M.K., Tan, S.L., The, L.H., Radius, N.J., & Abdullah, S. (2009, September 2) ReefBase: A Global Information System on Coral Reefs [Online]. Retrieved from: http://www.reefbase.org
United Nations Environmental Program. (2009, August 18). Global Environment Outlook (GEO) Data Portal. Retrieved from: http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/
United States Geological Survey. (2009, September 2). Earthquake Hazards Program: Epicenters Database. Retrieved from: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/epic_rect.html
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Resources (Con’t)
World Database on Protected Areas. (2009, August 5). Annual Release 2009 Dataset. Retrieved from: http://www.wdpa.org/Default.aspx
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Resources (Con’t)