risk management-2 [1]
TRANSCRIPT
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Itisafactoflifethatchanceeventswilloccurandaffecttheoutcomeofproject
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Overviewof
Organization
Risks
CulturalI
ShortageofResources
Lowmorale
mp
a
ct Project
SpecificDaytoday ProjectDecisions
Customerrequirements
Probability
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Project Management
Integrat ionManagement
ScopeManagement
TimeManagement
CostManagement
QualityManagement
HumanResource
Communications Risk Procurement
anagemen
Procurement
Management Management Management
ManagementManagement
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y
Riskis
everywhere
!!!
y Fromdrivingacartoparachuting,itsinherentinthe
activities
we
choose.
y Withinaproject,riskareunplannedeventsorconditions
a
can
aveapos ve
or
nega ve
e ec
on
ssuccess.
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un amenta s
y at s s
y Riskisanuncertaineventorconditionthat ifitoccurshasaneffectonatleastoneprojectobjective.
y Requirements
y Assumptions
y Conditions
y RiskandIssue
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ProjectRiskManagementy
Positivesrisks
are
called
opportunities.
y Forprojectmanagers,riskcanmeanfailure,butthe
rewardcanmeanatimeorcostsavings,aswellasother
benefits.y s management st eprocess nw c t epro ect
managerandprojectteam:
,y analyzeandrankthem,and
y determinewhatactions,ifan ,needtobetakentoavertthesethreats
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FundamentalsContd..y Riskandtheassociatedcosttoaddresstherisk,variesover
theprojectlifecycle ,
impacty Forfinalphasethereislowchanceofriskevents,butcostimpactis
hi h
y Identifyingandmanagingriskswillgreatlyaffectproject
success
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DecisionMaking
y I ea Decisionma ingy Based
on
all
relevant
Information
y Basedonenvironmentofcertainty
Confidence/
NoRisk
y RealityinDecisionmakingy Most
of
time
incom lete
information
RISK/
y DegreeofUncertainty Opportunity
OrganizationalsurvivalintodaysworldisachievedbypursuingopportunitywithinthisspectrumofuncertaintyandProjectsaretypicallylaunchedtotakeadvantageoftheseopportunities.
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ow
ec s ons
re
a e
Whatistherelationship?
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Example:SanFranciscoBayBridgey
Beginning
2005 Decision
to
stop
construction
y Later2005 Decisionofcontinueconstructionbased
on
original
project
y Result:$81Mcostoverrun.WillbepaidbyCalifornia
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Fundamentals
contd..
,
y
y LossofRevenue
y Extensionof
Time
to
contractors
y Increaseincostoftheproject
y Engagementofresourcesforlongerduration
y Implementationof
alternative
solution
on
additional
cost
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s
rocess
y CanweidentifyallRisks?Yes/No
KnownUnknownRisks Proactive Risk
Management
UnknownUnknownRisks Reactive Contingency
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ProjectRiskManagementProcesses1.PlanRiskManagement:decidinghowtoapproachandplantherisk
managementactivitiesfortheproject
2.Identify
Risks
:determining
which
risks
are
likely
to
affect
a
project
anddocumentingthecharacteristicsofeach
3 Riskanalysis:prioritizingrisksforfurtheranalysisoraction basedbyassessingandcombiningtheirprobabilityofoccurrenceandimpact
.reducethreatstomeetingprojectobjectives
5.MonitorandControlRisks:theprocessofimplementingriskresponse
plans
,monitoring
identified
and
residual
risks,
identifying
newrisks,andevaluatingtheeffectivenessofriskstrategiesthroughoutthelifeoftheproject
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1.PlanRiskManagementy RiskManagementPlanningisaboutmakingdecisions.like
contractselection
,acquisition
etc.
y ThePlanRiskManagementprocessisdependentonthe
scopeof
the
project,
the
priority
of
the
project
within
the
,deliverables.
y Itsimportant
to
complete
Risk
Management
Planning
in
ordertosuccessfullymanage,planfor,analyze,and
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PlanRiskManagementProjectScopeStatement
Brainstorming
CostManagementPlanScheduleManagementPlan
Communication
RISKMANAGEMENTPLAN
OrganizationalProcessAssets
INPUT
Techniques OutPut
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RiskManagement
Plan
Theriskmanagementplanisresponsiblefordetermining:
y Howriskwillbeidentified
y How Riskanalysiswillbecompleted
y ow an s esponsesw appen
y Howriskswillbemonitored
y Howongoingriskmanagementactivitieswillhappen
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s
anagement
an..
y ItIncludesfollowings:
y
Methodology Approach
,
tools,
data
sources
y RolesandResponsibilitieslead,supportandteammembers
y Budgeting estimatesfunds,protocolforcontingency
reserve
y RiskCategories
y DefinitionofriskProbabilityandImpact
y RevisedStakeholders
tolerances.
y Reportingformats
y Tracking
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DefinitionofRiskProbabilityandImpact
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IdentifyRisk RISKREGISTER
y
Identify
Risks
is
the
process
of
identifying
the
risks
and
then
documentinghowtheirpresencecanaffecttheproject.
y Riskidentificationisaniterativeprocessandcanbe
completedbytheprojectmanager,theprojectteam,anda
.
y Insomeinstances,stakeholdersandevenpeopleoutsideof
theprojectcancompleteadditionalwavesofrisk
identification
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RiskIdentificationBasedonbutnotlimitedto:
y Scopestatement
y Budget
y
y Workbreakdownstructure
y
y Responsibilityassignmentmatrix
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RiskIdentification
Techniques
y
Reviewing
Project
Documentsy Gatherin Techni ues
y Interviewing
y DelhiTechnique
y
y Riskidentificationchecklists.
y Assumptionanalysis
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y Processforassessingeachriskeventtoestimatethe
,
interms
of
cost,
schedule
and
performance.
y Resultsinaprioritizedlistofidentifiedrisks,andadecisionto
furtheranalyze
high
priority
risks.
y ActivityDurationEstimates (PERTandCPM)
D=O+4m+P/6
D=duration,O=Optimistic,P=Pessimistic,m=MostLikely
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y Notallrisksneedtobesubjecttomonitoringandcontrol
y UseaScenarioAnalysis toassesstheriskeventimpact
y Determineallconsequencesandtheirseverityiftheeventhappens
y Identifywhen,duringtheproject,willtheeventlikelyhappen
y Determinehowdifficultitwillbetodetecttheeventoccurrence
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Rankrisksfromthosethatcanbe
elevatedvigilance
ARiskSeverityMatrixcanbePlotofeventprobabilityversusimpact
Redzoneidentifiesthemost
Yellowzonelistsrisksthataremoderatelyimportant
safelyignored
Notethatthezonesarenots mmetricalacrossthematrix
Highimpactlowprobabilityeventsmuchmoreimportantthanlikely
lowimpact
events
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s
esponse
ann ng
y Processofdevelopingoptions,anddeterminingactionsto
reducethreatstotheprojectsobjectives.
y Conductedbasedonresultsofriskanalysis
y Assignsriskstoriskowners
y Appliesresources
and
inserts
activities
into
Risk
Management
Plan.
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StrategiesforRisksy StrategyforNegativeRisks
y Avoid
y Transfer
y Mitigate
ra egy or os ve s s
y Exploit
y Enhance
y Acce t
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RiskMonitoring
and
Control
y Toconfirmriskresponsesareimplementedasplanned
y Todetermineifriskresponsesareeffectiveorifnewresponsesareneeded
y Todetermine
the
validity
of
the
project
assumptions
y Todetermineifriskexposurehaschanged,evolved,ordeclinedduetotrendsintheprojectprogression
y Tomonitorrisktriggers
y Tomonitortheprojectfornewrisks
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y Risksassociatedwiththetechnicalaspectsofaprojectcanhavet emostseveroutcomesy Can
be
mitigatedby
design
reviews
and
specifications
review
of
critical
components
y Risksassociatedwiththescheduleusuallyrequireatradeoffy
Manage
slack/float
time
to
provide
resources
for
delayed
components
y Risksassociatedwithcostsusuallyresultfromestimateerrorsandomissions
y Descopeoptions
that
remove
components
of
the
project,
but
still
allow
theprimarymissiontoproceed
y Allbud ets mass ower schedule cost shouldincludeareservepercentagethatcanbeexpendedasriskeventsoccur
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SuccessFactorsforRiskManagement
y EstablishaProjectmanagementmethodology.
y EstablishaformalRiskmanagementmethodology
y Assigntrainedriskmanagers.
yDevelop
trained
cross
functional
teams.
y Earlyinvolvementinfunctionalprocess
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