risk management in times of financial crisis

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Page 1: Risk management in times of financial crisis

Risk management in times of financial crisis

September 2008

Page 2: Risk management in times of financial crisis

Risk management in times of financial crisis

View a full list of our services on our website – www.lcp.uk.comView a full list of our services on our website – www.lcp.uk.com

Shock bank failures and insurance company rescues. High stock marketvolatility. What does it all mean for pension schemes?

In dramatic times, dramatic action may be necessary to mitigate against major risks– those who fail to take such action could find themselves in significant difficulties,with capital lost or tied up in all the wrong places. Equally, there are times whenthe right thing to do is nothing.

Those responsible for managing pension schemes should act now to identify yourrisks, ensure the key stakeholders – eg trustee and company boards – are aware ofthem, and identify and implement any appropriate mitigation. Be aware that someactions may be, or may quickly become, time critical.

Financial turbulence

Recently we have seen events unfold that would have been close to unthinkable justa year ago. Some of the world’s biggest banks and insurers such as AIG, LehmanBrothers, Bear Stearns andWashington Mutual have collapsed, or had to be rescued.

• What does this mean for the wide range of investment products that areavailable to pension schemes?

• What does this mean for insurance products, including annuities? What wouldhappen if a large insurer was allowed to become insolvent?

• Does this mean that a large retail bank might fail, and what are the implicationsif it did?

In the light of the above and other events, investment markets are likely to remainhighly volatile and there is the possibility of further shocks to the system, includingfurther failures of financial institutions, entering a recession, significant furtherincreases in inflation and large changes to interest rates. For the time being at least,none of these can be ruled out, even if you think the chances of them are small.

So at times like this how do you respond? If you do nothing, you may be runningsome very large risks, and it is easy to see scenarios where the consequences couldbe material and trustees could be subsequently criticised for their lack of action ortheir inappropriate actions. On the other hand, there is clearly potential to targetlimited resources in the wrong places.

The credit crunchThe “credit crunch” refers to theoverall economic events of the lastyear, but primarily describes thesignificant loss of confidence thatfinancial institutions have had ineach other since about mid-2007.This lack of confidence has led totheir reticence to lend money toeach other – and maybe rightly so,as banks began to realise theirpotential exposure to losses arisingfrom a severe down turn in the USand UK housing markets.

Many banks and other financialinstitutions rely heavily on theirability to borrow money in order tooperate and demonstrate theirsolvency. Consequently, a numberof financial institutions havestruggled to demonstrate that theycan remain solvent and haveneeded rescuing by otherbusinesses or governments. Giventhe global, complex and inter-related nature of the world’sfinancial systems, the knock-onimpact of such events has beenwide ranging. Until confidence andstability returns, there is a materialrisk that further financial institutionscould get into trouble and/or fail,threatening the smooth running ofthe world’s financial systems.

This bulletin concentrates on thepotential issues for UK pensionsschemes, particularly occupationalpension schemes. Clearly, manysimilar risks apply to businessesand individuals. The note coversissues that are relevant both from atrustee perspective and from theperspective of sponsoringemployers. It only covers the risksassociated with shock financialevents – clearly all the usual risksof running a pension schemecontinue to apply and should bemanaged in the usual way. Wemake recommendations on nextsteps in the final section.

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Risk management in times of financial crisis

View a full list of our services on our website – www.lcp.uk.com

Top 10 tips

1Prepare a list of your key third party exposures – banks, investmentmanagers, insurers etc. Identify the ultimate group company in each case.

If you believe there is a chance that your scheme’s money on depositcould be at risk, start the process of setting up an alternative accountwith another bank as soon as possible, as the process is likely to takeweeks rather than days.

Check that all banking and investment authorisations and signatoriesare up-to-date to ensure that actions to divest/invest can be completedswiftly if needed.

Review all standard transaction procedures for buying/selling assetssuch as automated switching from one asset class to another; ensure thatthey remain appropriate in times of market volatility and illiquidity, and thatprocesses are in place to ensure that they are followed.

Consider the extent to which material transactions are likely to arise inthe coming months and consider whether any should be deferred or phased.

Add an agenda item to the next trustee meeting to consider the risks andagree what actions may need to be taken. In particular, we recommendthat trustees should update their risk register and in so doing activelyreconsider the potential implications of the credit crunch and recession ontheir sponsoring employer’s covenant; if it is believed that the implicationscould be material to the pension scheme and the security of members’benefits, then decisions should be taken as to how to respond to this.

Ensure that business planners and finance departments are aware of thepotential consequences of falling asset values on year-end companybalance sheets and next year’s pension charge and also the potentialsignificant increase in cash contribution requirements that may arise fromany upcoming scheme funding valuation if conditions do not improve.

If your business suffers redundancies and so there are key personnelchanges, consider the impact of these on your scheme’s finances andensure adequate continuity for key roles, such as trustees and pensionsstaff.

Watch out for notifiable events – ie events such as credit ratingdowngrades and breaching banking covenants - that may need to bereported to the Pensions Regulator at the earliest opportunity.

To the extent appropriate, communicate to members to allay any concernsthey may have about the sponsoring employer, or about events in thefinancial world more generally.

We have seen a series offinancial shocks, with noreasons to be confident thatthe latest will be the last.There are also longer termimpacts that may emerge overthe next few years. By takingproportionate steps now, andacting in a timely way asevents unfold, the effect onyour members, trustees andsponsoring employer can beminimised. Although thisbulletin is centred on pensions,you may also want to considerwhat aspects of it also apply toother parts of your business. Inmany cases, the immediateactions listed here will beappropriate.

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Risk management in times of financial crisis

View a full list of our services on our website – www.lcp.uk.com

In all cases, it is important to ensure that the appropriate people are aware that risksexist and, if possible, that action is being taken to mitigate them.

Pension scheme members may be unnerved by reports of a weakeningemployer covenant, falling asset values, or wider events in the economy.The trustees and employer may wish to communicate to members to assurethem that they are aware of the risks and mitigating actions are being taken.Management time may be needed to deal with queries and specificconcerns.

Trustees need to be kept informed. Where appropriate, urgent meetingsmay need to be called and sub committees may need to be set up at shortnotice to deal with urgent matters. Companies will need to work to maintaina strong relationship with trustees, amid other corporate distractions.Trustees also need to keep an open dialogue with their sponsor, as somechanges will require consultation. Trustees should also keep clear records ofdecisions, so that they can be justified when considered in retrospect.

Those with responsibility for pensions within an organisation should considerthe extent to which management and company boards should be keptabreast of matters. Key individuals may need to be reminded of legal dutiesto consider the appropriate involvement of trustees in material corporatechange.

Management

Trustees

Members

Keeping everyone informed

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Risk management in times of financial crisis

View a full list of our services on our website – www.lcp.uk.com

What can happen in times of financial crisis?

Before looking at the consequences for pension schemes, in this section we list anumber of possible consequences of the ongoing credit crunch itself. Whilst just ayear ago many of them would have been next to unthinkable, some of the mostunlikely have indeed already happened.

• Possible failure (or rescue or partial rescue) of an investment bank, a retailbank, a building society or an insurer.

• Flight to quality – government bonds and gold prices may soar, with long termyields on government bonds falling, whilst prices of other, more risky,investments may fall significantly – including equities, corporate bonds andproperty.

• Normal trading rules may temporarily cease to apply – assets that are normallyhighly liquid may become unpriceable and / or untradeable (or tradeable butwith associated transaction cost being sky high) and therefore may essentiallybecome illiquid for a period of time; stock markets may close for periods andmarket volatility may be extremely high.

• Commercial contracts may be tested to the limit as businesses struggle tosurvive or fail – counterparty and collateral contracts for some investmentproducts may be at risk of failing.

• Underlying economic data may change quickly and significantly – eg inflationmay take off or fall sharply, interest rates may be adjusted significantly andwithout warning, unemployment may materially increase.

• Businesses may hold onto cash, may make many people redundant, may closedown operations and subsidiaries or fall into receivership – some of theseevents may occur suddenly and without warning.

• Group parent companies may get into financial difficulties and may seek tomove money out of local businesses and subsidiaries; trustees must be alive tothese issues.

• Generally, employees and directors are likely to be under more pressure frommanagement and shareholders to identify risks, report them immediately andtake urgent mitigating actions. Business risks may be just as likely to arisefrom over-reaction as from inaction.

“Risk management hasbeen a key theme for

pension funds for severalyears now. For many

pension scheme trustees,this could be the first timethat your risk management

framework will really beput to the test.”

AAaarroonn PPuunnwwaanniiHead of LCP

Trustee Consulting

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Risk management in times of financial crisis

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Investment

Asset valuefalls

The value of a pension fund’s assets may fall, and may fallsignificantly over a short period of time. The timing of thismay coincide with reporting dates, eg for scheme fundingvaluations, company accounting or reporting to members(these points are expanded below). Some particular equitiesor bonds in the portfolio may literally become worthless.

This demonstrates theimportance of choosing anappropriate investmentstrategy, being aware of theextent of the risks for the fundand for the sponsoringemployer, and thediversification of assetsgenerally.

Material falls in asset values maymake it appropriate to conduct anurgent review of investmentstrategy, particularly if thesponsoring employer’s ownfinancial strength has also changedmaterially.

Counterpartyrisk

Some investments rely on a “counterparty”, eg stocklending, many liability driven investment portfolios,including interest rate and inflation swaps, and otherderivative based investments, including equity notes,currency trades and longevity derivatives. Suchinvestments are often further protected by “collateral”, ietransfer of ownership of actual assets equal to the facevalue of the investment, the amount of which is adjusteddaily. If counterparties fail, then losses may occur, andother risks and losses may arise during the period thatcollateralisation ceases to function.

Lehman Brothers was acounterparty to someinvestments used by UKpension funds.

Be aware of the risks that youare exposed to. Identify thecounterparties and ascertain whotheir group owners are.

Buyout and annuities

In the week of the 15th September 2008, insurers werefinding it impossible to price annuities because of illiquidmarkets. For the time being, many of them have stoppedoffering guaranteed prices. Some insurers may haveexposure to sub-prime losses. All have exposure to awide range of other financial organisations.

The plight of AIG hasillustrated that a very largeannuity insurer, with adiversified portfolio and anexceptional brand, can fail, orneed to be rescued.

Trustees who are considering abuyout should carefully considerthe balance of the risks they areeliminating versus the new risksthey are taking on, and makeinformed decisions.

Trading risk Pension funds routinely buy and sell assets. This may beparticularly relevant when there is a large cash flow in orout of the fund (eg a special contribution, transfer fromanother fund) or the investment strategy is being adjusted,perhaps following an investment strategy review, orimplementation of previously agreed de-risking, or simplyto maintain the agreed strategy of having a fixedpercentage in a particular asset class.

In times of market illiquidity,volatility and high transactioncosts it is appropriate fortrustees to consider whether the“normal” procedures should stillbe applied, perhaps choosing todelay or phase certaintransactions, and ensuring thatany period of time “out of themarket” is kept to a minimum.

Investment management performance

In times of market shocks and volatility it can be expectedthat investment manager performance may throw upsurprises. For active managers, the impact of beingunderweight or overweight in financial stocks (forexample) could have a very significant impact on theirperformance. For passive managers, material divergencefrom their index may become more likely as they struggleto “keep up” with market changes.

Be aware of the risk ofunderperformance and monitormore closely than in normalcircumstances.

Derivatives The value of derivatives type contracts, that are held tocreate synthetic or more efficient exposure to underlyingassets, eg credit default swaps in place of physicalcorporate bonds, may not behave as expected. Thiscould be either due to small changes in the pricing basis,or due to the legal nature of the contract.

Be aware of the exposure tosuch contracts and keep aregister of them.

Other thirdparty failure

Brokers, advisers and custodians may each be at risk offailure, or having assets tied up.

Redundancies may lead to achange in relationships,perhaps at a time of crisis.

Be aware of your exposure to thirdparties and maintain appropriaterelationships with them.

Issuinginstructions

Instructions to investment managers or banks need to beissued in a timely manner. There may be the risk thatinstruction protocols, eg authorised signature lists, are notin place or up to date.

There is a risk that a problemis only discovered at a timewhen a transaction needs tobe completed very quickly.

Review authorisation andsignatory lists to check they areup-to-date.

Managing pension schemes through financial crisis

There are clearly numerous possible consequences of the above events on pension schemes and itwould be impossible to identify all of them. In this section we highlight some of them, but perhapsthe most important thing is to always be aware that unexpected consequences could arise, and be readyto take any necessary action.

Investment

Accounting for pensions and internalcompliance

Insurances

Benefits PPF

Sponsorstrength

Fundingissues

Banking andcash flow

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Sponsor strength

Changingcovenant

The strength of the employer’s covenant to apension scheme may reduce materially, or theemployer may become insolvent. Where thestrength of the employer has materiallydiminished, or is at more risk of materiallydiminishing, trustees should consider urgentmitigating action, for example using thepowers available to them within their rules,seeking additional contributions or contingentassets (perhaps by triggering a valuation), orswitching to more secure investments.

Companies should beproactive in engaging withtrustees ahead of majorchanges.

Trustees need to remainvigilant in closely monitoringa company’s strength andtaking mitigating actionsooner rather than later. Itmay be appropriate to seekspecial meetings withmanagement to discuss thecovenant, to seek additionalinformation, to appointfinancial advisers and/orconduct a special review ofthe covenant.

Unusual events At times of financial crisis, management maymake quick, unexpected decisions which mayhave significant financial consequences. Agroup headquarters may put pressure on UKsubsidiaries to pass cash further up the group.A business, subsidiary or key assets may beacquired by new shareholders or movedelsewhere within a group.

Normal procedures may notbe followed in extremecircumstances and eventsmay develop very quickly.

Trustees need to keep closeto the action and perhapsrequest to be kept closely inthe loop if they are aware thattheir sponsoring companiesare under pressure.

Notifiableevents

Changes in credit rating, breaches of bankingcovenants, changes of control and changes todirectors or other key posts, can all be eventsthat the employer must generally notify to thePensions Regulator as soon as possible.

There are some exemptionsfrom this.

Be aware of requirements andensure compliance.

Change in personnel

In practice, one of the most challengingconsequences of financial crisis can be thespeed at which personnel and relationshipschange. Experienced trustees can be maderedundant and may need replacing quickly sothat the trustee board can cope with thepensions issues. Key management personnel,who have had experience of the pensionscheme and long standing relationships withthe trustees and their advisers, may bediverted to other management responsibilitiesand have no time for pensions, or may bemade redundant.

It is important for all partiesto make urgent efforts tobuild new relationshipsbetween the key decisionmakers if personnel changeshappen at a time of financialcrisis.

Financialirregularities and fraud

In times of stress, people can be tempted toact inappropriately.

For example, if trustees areaware that an employer is infinancial difficulties andthere is a delay in paying anemployer contribution to thescheme, this should triggermore urgent action than innormal circumstances.

Be vigilant.

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Funding issues

Increaseddeficits

Material increases in deficits may trigger the needfor an out-of-cycle actuarial funding valuation anda request for additional contributions (or ademand for such contributions if the trusteeshave that power under their rules).

The trustees’ response willbe dependent on thestrength of the employer’scovenant.

Trustees may need toconsider if such action isappropriate.

Currentlyongoingvaluations

Where valuations are currently being completed,the trustees, the company and the actuary shouldconsider the extent to which it is appropriate totake into account “post valuation date” events.

Trustees may need toconsider if such action isappropriate.

Transfer values Increased deficits and changes in investmentstrategy could lead to a need to review the basisfor setting transfer values.

There may be a need toreduce transfer values inrespect of underfunding inthe scheme.

Trustees may need toconsider if such action isappropriate.

Accounting for pensions & internal compliance

Increaseddeficits andprofit charges

Material increases in FRS17 and IAS19 deficitsmay emerge before the sponsoring employer’snext year-end.

This may have a verysignificant impact on thecompany’s balance sheetand on the following year’spension charge to profit.

Companies may wish toconsider the potentialimpact on their accounts,the perceptions of theirshareholders and otherinvestors including banks,and the impact for 2009budgeting.

Funding vsaccounting

In times of financial crisis, it should be expectedthat pension fund liabilities measured for differentpurposes will diverge. In particular, trusteefunding valuations are likely to show much higherdeficits than those revealed under FRS17 orIAS19. This is because gilt yields (which drivefunding valuations) remain low, whilst corporatebond yields (which drive accounting valuations)increase significantly – this simply reflects the“flight to quality” within investment markets.

Management andshareholders may besurprised to see thecombination of very highcontribution demands fromtrustees, but less damageshown in the accountingfigures.

Companies who complywith International GAAP mayneed to book additionalliabilities on their balancesheet as a consequence ofthe new IFRIC14. Theexpectations of seniormanagement and investorsmay need to be managed,with the consequentcommunication issues thatarise.

Compliance Each company will have its own set of internalrules to follow for compliance purposes,potentially based on Sarbanes Oxley.

It is likely that these ruleswill be tested in extremefinancial conditions.

It will be important to follow,or amend the rules asappropriate.

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Banking and cash flow

Bank failure If a UK bank fails, it is quite likely that someoneassociated with the pension scheme will bankwith them. This could be the employer, thetrustees, members, or any other third party.

It is very unlikely to beappropriate to pay anymoney to a failed bank.This may involve swift actionto, for example, interrupt apensioner payroll run.

Diversify Trustees may wish to consider diversifying theirbanking facilities away from banks that areperceived to be relatively more risky, especially ifthe trustees routinely hold a material amount ofcash in the bank.

It may be appropriate to dothe ground work on settingup new bank accountssooner rather than later, asthis can take time (eg due toanti-money launderingrequirements).

Insurances

Insurancecompany failure

Pension schemes may have a number ofinsurances, from life insurance and annuities totrustee indemnity insurance. The employer mayalso have related employee benefit insurances, egincome protection, special insurances for seniormanagement. If an insurer fails, claims may notbe paid, but benefits may have been promised tomembers.

It is likely to be appropriateto cease paying premiumsimmediately to a failedinsurer, although adviceshould be taken in thatevent. Insurances may needto be re-arranged with otherinsurers very quickly in orderto mitigate against furtherrisks.

PPF

Increasedlevies

Individual levies and possibly the overall levy in2009/2010 could be significantly higher. This mayarise because of increased deficits in pensionschemes and/or the PPF deciding that they needto significantly increase the total planned levy(£700m in 2008/09) because of the increased riskof insolvencies generally and because the PPF’sown assets have fallen in value.

Action now may help tomitigate the PPF levy.

D&B scores Sponsoring employers’ D&B scores at 31st March2008 are due to be used to set the 2009/2010levy. Changes to D&B scores before 31st March2009 can be expected to impact on 2010/2011levies.

A material worsening inindividual D&B scores canhave a very geared impacton levies.

Action now may help tomitigate the PPF levy.

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Benefits

DC investments The value of members’ DC funds may fallconsiderably. Complications could arise if theinvestment manager / insurer becomesinsolvent. Complications could arise if DCfunds are exposed to derivatives and/orcounterparty risk. The performance ofpassively managed funds may diverge fromtheir index. Actively managed funds mayperform particularly badly or well.

Members are likely to beconcerned about this.

Understand the risks withinyour DC funds and considerwhether any communicationsare appropriate.

Redundancyand DC

Members may lose their jobs. Perhaps theworst combination is if members in their early50s lose their jobs and need to draw on theirpension. Many such members will still beinvested 100% in equity related assets, havingnot yet entered the protection of lifestyleswitching, and fund values and theirconsequential retirement income couldtherefore be very low.

It is possible that somemembers have not fullyunderstood how their fundwas invested and themeaning of terms such as“lifestyle”.

Ensure that HR managers areaware of the issues.

On-going natureof the scheme

Tough times can lead to tough benefitdecisions being taken by companies, indiscussion with the trustees.

Some of these may requireformal member consultationbefore they can go ahead.

Cutting back of accrual,redesigning benefits andliability managementopportunities may all beconsidered at these times.

Inflation and pensionincreases

If inflation takes off, any caps on pensionincreases may apply – eg 5% or 2.5%.

This may take somepressure off funding, butthere may be pressure frompensioners for discretionarypension increases as theirstandard of living falls.

Take early steps toappropriately manage theexpectations of all parties.

Transfer values In times of high market volatility, there are risksassociated with members being “out of themarket” between transferring from onepension scheme to another.

For example, being out ofthe market on 19thSeptember 2008 could havecost a member nearly 10%of their pension savings.

Ensure procedures areappropriate and are followed,and members’ expectationsare managed.

AVC and otherDC benefits and retirement

Likewise, there is a risk at retirement ifmembers’ DC funds are disinvested at aninappropriate time. Annuity prices may alsochange significantly from one week to thenext.

Ensure procedures areappropriate and are followed,and members’ expectationsare managed.

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About LCP

Lane Clark & Peacock LLP (LCP) is a limited liability partnership and offers a full range of actuarial, benefit consultancyand risk services to clients in the UK and internationally through LCP Trustee Consulting, LCP Corporate Consulting,LCP Financial Dynamics Practice, LCP Insurance Consulting and LCP Investment Consulting.

The LCP Trustee Consulting practice focuses on providing advice on pensions issues that are of concern to trustees,such as governance, implementing the new pension scheme funding regime, assessing the adequacy of contribution plans,advising on investment issues, assessing the strength of the employer covenant, and advising on the issues surroundinginsolvency and the winding up of pension schemes.

The LCP Corporate Consulting practice specialises in advising companies on how best to manage their pensionschemes’ finances through contributions, investment policy and other approaches. The practice also advises companieson how best to manage the impact of their pension schemes on company finances, how to represent pension schemes incompany accounts, ensuring that UK and international benefit plans attract and retain employees effectively, andmanaging benefit issues in mergers and acquisitions.

The LCP Financial Dynamics practice specialises in offering a new dimension to risk appraisal, business modellingand valuations of companies. The practice uses advanced financial models to give companies a competitive advantagewhen considering business decisions.

The LCP Insurance Consulting practice provides specialist actuarial advice in the field of insurance and reinsurance.The practice also advises on wider risk management issues for insurance organisations.

The LCP Investment Consulting practice specialises in advising both corporate sponsors and pension scheme trusteeson the appropriate investment policy, as well as on the broader areas of risk management. The practice is able to identifythe potentially complex and conflicting needs, explain clearly how to address those needs and help with theimplementation of the chosen solution.

LCP employs more than 500 staff including over 200 full and part qualified actuaries. We serve a wide range of clientsaround the world, including some of the largest global multinationals, such as Pearson, Volkswagen and Whitbread. Wealso serve a number of private equity houses, charities and unions.

If you would like assistance on any of these issues, please contact the partner who normally advises you,or call Aaron Punwani on +44 (0)20 7439 2266, Jonathan Camfield on +44 (0)1962 870 060 or Ken Willison +44 (0)20 7439 2266.

This bulletin is generic and should not be relied upon as detailed advice. LCP accepts no liability for any action taken on the basis of this bulletin unlessyou have requested that we provide specific advice to you and we have done so under our usual terms of business. This bulletin should not form the

basis of any investment decision.

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