Risk Monitoring & Early Warning System

in Tajikistan

International Coordination Meeting “Responding to the Compound Crisis in Central Asia”20-21 July 2009, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Presentation outline

• Background: initial steps and current gaps

• Ongoing initiative: proposed approach and structure

• Challenges and Next steps

Background

Lessons from the 2007/08 Lessons from the 2007/08 “compound crisis”“compound crisis”Crises with humanitarian impacts can be Crises with humanitarian impacts can be triggered by a complex interaction of triggered by a complex interaction of development failures and climatic hazardsdevelopment failures and climatic hazards

Initial steps: increased REACT Initial steps: increased REACT monitoring capacitiesmonitoring capacities

Introduction of a simplified REACT EW Introduction of a simplified REACT EW System:System:1. Precipitation/temperature; 2. Remittances; 1. Precipitation/temperature; 2. Remittances; 3.Food prices and 3.Food prices and fuel price;fuel price; 4. Electricity 4. Electricity generation; 5. Water level in reservoirs.generation; 5. Water level in reservoirs.

… … Changing environmentChanging environmentAfter drought situation in 2008 and growing After drought situation in 2008 and growing importance of emerging impacts of the global importance of emerging impacts of the global financial crisis on the economy of Tajikistan, financial crisis on the economy of Tajikistan, additional/more complex indicators were included additional/more complex indicators were included for monitoring:for monitoring:

1.1.Labor migration;Labor migration;

2.2.Consumer price inflation;Consumer price inflation;

3.3.Import/Export;Import/Export;

4.4.Currency exchange rate;Currency exchange rate;

5.5.Unemployment rate;Unemployment rate;

6.6.Agricultural outputs.Agricultural outputs.

Current set-up of REACT EW System

• Managed out of UNDP Managed out of UNDP (DRMP); (DRMP);

• Monthly publication of Monthly publication of monitoring of indicators monitoring of indicators and situation reports and situation reports since September 2008, since September 2008, available atavailable at: :

http://www.untj.org

Gaps of the current system

• No unified system with broader scope of indicators;No unified system with broader scope of indicators;

• Difficulty in obtaining timely and qualitative data;Difficulty in obtaining timely and qualitative data;

• Informal cooperation with governmental counterparts;Informal cooperation with governmental counterparts;

• Lack of sector-specific analysts/limited analyses;Lack of sector-specific analysts/limited analyses;

• No agreed path from monitoring to warning and action.No agreed path from monitoring to warning and action.

Goal: Goal: To enhance national capacities in emergency-To enhance national capacities in emergency-related information management to prevent crises related information management to prevent crises and/or mitigate their consequences at an early and/or mitigate their consequences at an early stagestage

• Proposed approach:Proposed approach:– Phase 1: Data Collection Process

– Phase 2: Analytical Process/Risk Monitoring

– Phase 3: Warning

Ongoing initiative for a Risk Monitoring & Warning System in Tajikistan

Three-phased approach

Data collection process- Sector-specific partner agencies (GoT and Sector-specific partner agencies (GoT and

international) assist in data collection process international) assist in data collection process on a regular basis; on a regular basis;

- Data is integrated within the “RMW System”Data is integrated within the “RMW System”;

Analytical process- Sector-specific specialists analyze available data

on a regular basis and issue Situation Reports (MONITORING);

- In case triggers reach threshold levels, Early Warning reports are released (WARNING);

Risk Monitoring and Warning - TheThe Situation ReportsSituation Reports are disseminated to all are disseminated to all

REACT partners, donors and national REACT partners, donors and national stakeholders (Ministries and State agencies);stakeholders (Ministries and State agencies);

- When triggeredWhen triggered,, Warning Messages Warning Messages are are disseminated and will include specific disseminated and will include specific recommendations to the Government, UN recommendations to the Government, UN agencies and the international agencies and the international community;

PHASE 1: Data collection process

PHASE 2: Analytical process

PHASE 3: Early Warning

Proposed structure of the EW System

UN Resident Coordinator

donors & other int. agencies

Governmental Counterparts; key decision-makers

REACT partners/humanitarian

sector

Sector Specific Threats

List of Indicators/warning

triggers

Source

Source

Source

Sector Specific Threats

List of Indicators/warning

triggers

Source

Source

Source

Sector Specific Threats

List of Indicators/warning

triggers

Source

Source

Source

Sector Specific Threats

List of Indicators/warning

triggers

Source

Source

Source

“Risk Monitoring and Warning System”/Group of Sector Specific

Specialists

Risk Monitoring Reports

(monthly)

Alerts /Early Warning Reports(when triggered)

Dat

a co

llect

ion

Ana

lysi

sW

arni

ng

Main Sector PartnersMain Sector Partners Main Sector PartnerMain Sector Partners

Joint response/Early Action

Phase 1: Data Collection Process (1/2)

Natural Hazards Socio-economic Security

Food Security

List of Indicators

1. Flooding/mudflows2. Precipitation3. Snow storage4. Temperature5. Water level in the

rivers

List of Indicators

1. CPI2. Currency exchange

rate3. Remittances4. Migration5. Unemployment rate

List of Indicators

1. Market food price2. Local fuel price3. Local service price4. Households food

stock/food access5. Household income

and expenditures6. Consumption basket7. Agricultural output

CoES Hydromet Barqi Tojik

NBT,IMF

State StatisticalCommittee

IOM, ILO,MoL,

MoEDT

WFP,FSMS

StateStatisticalCommittee

MoEDTMoA

CoES IMAC IMF (& MoF) WFP (MoA & MoEDT)

Phase 1: Data Collection Process (2/2)

Energy Security

World Bank (& MoEI) World Health Organization (& MoH) UNICEF

Health Security

List of Indicators

1. Water level in the reservoirs

2. Electricity generation

3. Energy (electricity and gas) import

4. Energy restriction schedules (duration and location)

Water Security

List of Indicators

1. Access to clean drinking water

(Linked with “Natural Hazards” & “Health Security” indicators)

List of Indicators

1. Disease outbreak2. Nutrition3. Health care delivery4. Availability of

heating facilities5. Drug availability6. Household’s health

expenditure

Barqi Tojik

Tojik-transga

s

MoEI MoH/SES

CoES WFP/FSMS

MoH/SES

CoES MoMWRLocal Water

Agencies

Phase 2: Analytical Process

Early Warning Center

(hosted within UN)

Board of Experts

(With 5 or more sector-specific specialists who convene regularly to analyze the collected data and write a report)

Situation Report (monthly)

Monitors identified risk factors;

Bulletin type; Main text – “Narrative part” -

interpretation of data and graphs (see current Situation Reports produced by REACT Secretariat);

Tables and graphs (current practice – to be redesigned);

Includes interpretation and analyses of original sources;

Includes cover letter from UN RC, with specific reference to “possible” warning.

Early Warning Report(when triggered)

Concise and brief – can be a half page (“Press Release” type of report);

Includes report number; Reference made to EWI

Monitoring; Includes specific

recommendations to Government, UN, IFIs, other relevant actors.

Phase 3: Early Warning

From Government to populationAND

From UN Resident Coordinator to donors, other partners (depending on the message or

situation)

• Decision taken based on recommendations from experts in discussion with GoT and UN;

• Includes recommendations to Government and international community

Donors/Governmental Counterparts- key decision

makers REACT partners/humanitarian

sector

Overall agreement on the need for such a Overall agreement on the need for such a system;system;

Identify suitable Government partner Identify suitable Government partner institution; institution;

Agree with all stakeholders on the structure of Agree with all stakeholders on the structure of the system and on roles and responsibilities of the system and on roles and responsibilities of involved parties;involved parties;

Ensure sustainability of the system.Ensure sustainability of the system.

Agree on key sectors and indicators;Agree on key sectors and indicators;

Identify the sources of data and information Identify the sources of data and information (clarify processes for access and regular (clarify processes for access and regular provision of data);provision of data);

Test and fine-tune the system;Test and fine-tune the system;

Develop the links from early warning to early Develop the links from early warning to early action.action.

Challenges and Next steps

Thank you