risk presentation plan - collège de france · 12/07/2013 2 côte-nord Île d'anticosti...
TRANSCRIPT
12/07/2013
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Risk Management: an Opportunity for Adaptation to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise in Coastal Zones
Jean‐Pierre SavardOuranos
Presentation plan
Brief summary of Ouranosmaritime program
Summary and conclusion of five years of follow‐up of adaptationy p p
Strategic planning of adaptation implementation projects
Using crisis management as a tool for adaptation
Canada Québec
États‐Unis
Mexique
Région Estdu Québec
Ministères:
1. Sécurité publique
2. Développement durable, Environnement et Parcs
3. Ressources naturelles et Faune
4. Affaires municipales et Régions
5. Transports
6. Agriculture, Pêcheries et Alimentation
7 Développement économique Innovation et Exportation
Membres (dès 2001)
Le Consortium Le Consortium OuranosOuranos
7. Développement économique, Innovation et Exportation
8. Santé et Services sociaux
Mission
ACQUÉRIR + DÉVELOPPER des connaissances sur les risques liés aux CCINFORMER + CONSEILLER les décideurs et les usagers afin de s’adapter
Membres affiliés (dès 2007)
Structure de Structure de l’organisationl’organisation Niveau d'engagementdes membres‐utilisateurs
Sous‐ministreet Directeur
Sous‐ministres adjoints et Directeurs
Assemblée des membres
Conseil scientifique
Direction générale
Communication
Administration
Informatique
Conseil d'administration
Coordonnateurs
SIMULATIONS CLIMATIQUESSIMULATIONS CLIMATIQUES
ANALYSES HYDRO
CLIMATIQUES
ANALYSES HYDRO
CLIMATIQUES
SCÉNARIOSCLIMATIQUESSCÉNARIOSCLIMATIQUES
ENVIRONNEMENT NORDIQUEENVIRONNEMENT NORDIQUE
RESSOURCES ÉNERGÉTIQUES RESSOURCES ÉNERGÉTIQUES
ENVIRONNEMENT MARITIMEENVIRONNEMENT MARITIME
RESSOURCES FORESTIÈRESRESSOURCES FORESTIÈRES
RESSOURCES HYDRIQUESRESSOURCES HYDRIQUES
SCIENCES DU CLIMAT IMPACTS ET ADAPTATION
Experts et scientifiques
Beaucoup de capacité interne et quelques projets externes
Beaucoup de projets externes par un réseau fortement orienté par
une capacité interne
Recherche et développement
ENVIRONNEMENT BÂTI(ENJEUX MUNICIPAUX)
ENVIRONNEMENT BÂTI(ENJEUX MUNICIPAUX)
ECOSYSTÈMESET BIODIVERSITÉ ECOSYSTÈMESET BIODIVERSITÉ
AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE
SANTÉSANTÉ
TOURISMETOURISME
Storm surge in Magdalen Islands
Sea level rise of 4,4 mm/y
12/07/2013
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Côte-Nord
Île d'Anticosti
Secteur de Gallix
Secteur de Sept-Îles
Golfe du Saint-Laurent
Area of study
4
GaspésieÎles-de-la-Madeleine
Secteur de Havre-Aubert / Cap-aux-Meules
Secteur de Pointe-aux-Loups
Secteur de Percé
Nouveau-Brunswick
Baie des Chaleurs
0 100 20050 Km 0 20 4010 Km
Ice pile‐up on the shore ofSaint‐Simon, Baie‐des‐Chaleurs
Erosion of the sandy cliff during the December 6, 2010 storm
Photo
Erosion
Intense rainfall during Katrina Hurricane August 31st, 2005 near Baie Comeau
Impact and adaptation cycle
•Summary of existing studies•Biophysical studiesS i i di
Impact Studies
Adaptation
Present situation
•Vulnerability•State of adaptation to present climate•Historic of adaptation
•Socio‐economic studies•Climate scenarios•Analysis of the impacts of CC•Transfer to users
•Interaction between users, stake holders and scientists •Elaborating strategies of adaptation•Implementation•Follow‐up of adaptation
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Côte-Nord
Île d'Anticosti
Secteur de Gallix
Secteur de Sept-Îles
Golfe du Saint-Laurent
Area of study
4
GaspésieÎles-de-la-Madeleine
Secteur de Havre-Aubert / Cap-aux-Meules
Secteur de Pointe-aux-Loups
Secteur de Percé
Nouveau-Brunswick
Baie des Chaleurs
0 100 20050 Km 0 20 4010 Km
Groupe climat
Paramétrisation
A l d
Segmentation
Groupe côtier
Scénarios climatiqueset hydrodynamiques
Choix des sitestémoins
Groupe usagers
Analyse des
Scénarios d’érosion Ateliers de coordinationscientifiques utilisateurs
R h h d
COORDINATIONProjet Érosion
Analyse desdonnées historiques
Validation des scénarios Validation des scénarios
Analyse des données historiques
Rapport synthèse
Recherche des solutions d’adaptation
Atelier de sélectiondes solutions
Structure organisationnelleStructure organisationnelle
Phase 1 of the maritime program participating organisations
www.ouranos.ca
Photo: Christian Fraser
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Scénarios pour 2050 Description
S1 : mean rate of erosion or shorelineretreat from1931 to 2006
This scenario is consider as status quo or no change of the erosion rate.
Erosion scenarios
S2 : mean erosion rate during a 10 to 15 year-period with the most intensive erosion rate 1931-2006
This scenario considers as likely that the erosion rate of the futur should be higherthan the average of the past 70 years. This rate would be similar to the worse rate observe at a decadal time frame.
S3 : For the same 10 to 15 y period as S2 above, mean rate of erosion of all values above median for any givensegment of the shoreline.
This scenario considers that futur rates of erosion will be higher than S2 due to aggravating factors related to climate and human action.
www.ouranos.ca
•Participants to users committees, both scientists and local users, improved significantly their comprehension of the issues.
Successful adaptation
•Confidence in the science process and in the science team did improve
•Several adaptation actions were initiated, including
Land regulation and planning, revised safety regulations
Memorandum of understanding signed by Quebec gov.and Magdalen Islands for implementing adaptation
Transport department of MI used sand refill to replace stone berms.
•Adaptation responses did propagated to communities not directly involved in the project.
Bad adaptation or failures
•Bureaucratic jamming and incoherence of various administrations. • Missing participants sometime got the final word: (Engineering firms). •Turn over of stake holders: Elections every 4 y at all y ygovernment levels (local or central).•Political response to a better access to knowledge not always positive.•The cost of adaptation is seen as prohibitive. •It is difficult for politicians to spend tax payer money now to solve future and hypothetical problems.
Pointe au Loup
Grande Entrée
Îles‐de‐la‐Madeleine
Havre aux Maisons
Havre Aubert
Cap aux Meules
Île d’Entrée
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Storm surge in Magdalen Islands
impact and adaptation cycle
•Summary of existing studies•Biophysical studiesS i i di
Impact Studies
Adaptation
Present situation
•Vulnerability•State of adaptation to present climate•Historic of adaptation
•Socio‐economic studies•Climate scenarios•Analysis of the impacts of CC•Transfer to users
•Interaction between users, stake holders and scientists •Elaborating strategies of adaptation•Implementation•Follow‐up of adaptation
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Adaptation process in coastal area
Adatation cycle already completed
Options of adaptation choosen
Costly, politically sensitive and unpopular
No regret solutions and
• Analysis of vulnerability• Impact of CC• Transfer knowledge to users• Cost benefit studies completed
Moderately sensitive or sensitive and unpopular
options low cost options
Crisis management required in most cases
Ball carrier and projects of adaptation
expensive options
• Analysis of global cost and legal aspect of adaptation
• Projects of adaptation (with objectives, budget and time schedule)
• Communication plan• Integrated follow‐up from the
beginning
• Improving prevision capacity to gain time
• Project aiming to introduce adaptation in crisis management plans
• Communication plan• Follow‐up plan integrated
Middle range adaptation challenge
1) Solutions that require approbation or implication of a small number of actors.
Improving existing government infrastructures Reinforcing protections already in placeReviewing and/or enforcing existing regulations
2) Solutions that appears obvious to all key actors add2) Solutions that appears obvious to all key actors addCase of Sept‐Îles : stopping the rock berm developmentCase of Magdalen Islands: Using dredged sand
Implementing this type of solutions
The role of the ball carrier is criticalWhat is an adaptation projectHow far should we get involve as scientists?
Erosion of beach dunes in Magdalen Is.
The social axis raise many questions: a few examples
• Since the sea level will be changing for centuries, most options of fight against the sea will become increasingly expansive to support with time. Is retreating the only valid option. It is almost impossible to sale this option out of crisis situation?
• Who should decide what is an « unacceptable risk »?
• If an individual is willing to take the risk, who should pay?
• Should coastal risk management be integrated into the development of the society or community? If yes, how can we predict the future of communities and society?
• Assuming a social, political and community base consensus is achieved, what should we do with those who still reject the solution?
Adaptation process in coastal area
Adatation cycle already completed
Options of adaptation choosen
Costly, politically sensitive and unpopular
No regret solutions and
• Analysis of vulnerability• Impact of CC• Transfer knowledge to users• Cost benefit studies completed
Moderately sensitive or sensitive and unpopular
options low cost options
Crisis management required in most cases
Ball carrier and projects of adaptation
expensive options
• Analysis of global cost and legal aspect of adaptation
• Projects of adaptation (with objectives, budget and time schedule)
• Communication plan• Integrated follow‐up from the
beginning
• Improving prevision capacity to gain time
• Project aiming to introduce adaptation in crisis management plans
• Communication plan• Follow‐up plan integrated
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Crisis adaptation plan
•Identify key actors (politics, civil servants and media, etc.) of crisis management; develop and update of this list of the key actors; •Review and update compensation programs to include adaptation aspects; train operational personal of MSP.p p ; p p•prepare short technical fact sheets for each key actor providing guidelines about adaptation response for the area during a crisis; • Improve early warning systems (storm surge and wave models) to gain time when a crisis is approaching;•Prepare a communication plan for political actors, crisis managers and scientific actors.
Comparison of model and observed non tidal water level at Umiuaq, northern Quebec
‐0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
Niveau
(m)
Niveau résiduel non tidal modélisé et observé Umiujaq 2010
Modèlisé
Observé
y = 0,839x + 0,0473R² = 0,9192
1,0
1,2
1,4
Niveau résiduel observé vs modélisé à Umiujaq
‐1,00
09‐19 09‐29 10‐09 10‐19 10‐29 11‐08 11‐18 11‐28 12‐08 12‐18 12‐28
Mois‐jours en 2010
‐0,8
‐0,6
‐0,4
‐0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
‐0,8 ‐0,6 ‐0,4 ‐0,2 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2
Niveau
observé (m)
Niveau modélisé (m)
Conclusions• The follow‐up of phase 1, altough informal, provided information about
various types of adaptation; • For moderatly complex adaptation scheme, case studies of adaptation
projects are presently initiated. The implication of Ouranos and the science community exceed the simple support level and bring the science community in a pro‐active contribution to implementing adaptation.
• The follow‐up also indicates that adaptation is not efficient in some cases p pdue to political bottle neck related to the combine effect of economical, social and political cost attached to the implementation process.
• As a response to these adaptation bottle neck, the strategy develop by Ouranos is to prepare material that will be activate when a crisis is happening. Adaptation plan will be introduce in the crisis management process of governments and other actors of crisis response.
• These plans will include communication plans for all key actors of the crisis management and to mass media, including fact sheets providing essential information to introduce adaptation scheme in the crisis management process.
Thank youMerci