risk profiles for re-profiling sovereign debt
DESCRIPTION
A preliminary version of my paper with Andrea Consiglio on scenario optimization for debt restructuring, presented at the Rome Summer School on Risk Management, LUISS University andTRANSCRIPT
Re-profiling Sovereign Debt
Stavros A. Zenios
University of Cyprus
Senior Fellow the Wharton School, USA
Outline
¤ An Overview of Sovereign Debt Crises
¤ Sovereign Debt Re-profiling Challenge
¤ Issues in Debt Re-profiling
¤ Argentina, Greece, Cyprus
¤ Scenario Analysis for Optimal Debt Restructuring
An Overview of Sovereign Debt Crises
Eurozone debt
Is the Eurozone public debt too high?
¤ Reinhart-Rogoff and others § The 90% threshold § Some debate (exogeneity and instruments) § Good reasons
¤ Theory § Tax burden § Financial risk, borrowing costs, shocks, multiple
equilibria § Policy constraint
Special features of Eurozone debt
¤ The diabolic loop (Brunnermeier et al., 2011) § Governments at risk borrow from banks § Banks are at risk: need government rescue § ECB is not lender of last resort
¤ More generally: governments borrow in foreign currency (De Grauwe, 2012)
¤ Both are sources of multiple equilibria
¤ Eurozone countries like developing countries
¤ Lower public debt thresholds (R&R, Cecchetti et al.)
Historical note: For young countries
¤ Average years to default-rescheduling for African and Asian countries
¤ 31.5 years
¤ Average years to default-rescheduling for Latin American countries
¤ 36 years, including Great Depression ¤ 38 years, excluding Great Depression
Historical note: Share of time in default or rescheduling since 1800
¤ All European Countries: ¤ Share of years 14.3%
¤ Number of episodes 3.8
¤ European countries that defaulted at least once ¤ Share of years 22.8%
¤ Number of episodes 6.1
¤ Greece 50.6%, 5 episodes
¤ Germany 13%, 8 episodes
¤ Latin American countries ¤ Share of years 34.7%
¤ Number of episodes 7
Sovereign Debt Restructuring Challenge
Debt is Fragile: Hyman Minsky
¤ Phase I. Hedge finance
¤ Phase II. Speculative finance
¤ Phase III. Ponzi scheme
¤ Where do Governments operate?
Factors of fragility of public debt
¤ Ability to repay: ¤ Interest rate ¤ Debt/GDP ratio
¤ Interest rate goes UP as ability to repay goes DOWN
¤ Increase debt servicing cost = “Snowball effect” on GDP
Spreads of 5-year CDS of government bonds for European countries under assistance programs.
!
Marked!with!a!triangle!are!the!dates!of!applying!for!a!assistance!and!with!bullet!point!the!dates!of!reaching!agreement.!Graph!as!presented!by!A.!Orphanides!at!the!Tassos!Papadopoulos!Center!
Conference!on!“Five!Years!Euro”,!17!May!2013.!!!!
Snowball effect - Cyprus
100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% 220% 240% 260% 280%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Public Debt to Revenues
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
External Debt to GDP
Getting out of a debt trap
IMF Board notice 13/61, May 2013
«debt restructurings have often been too little and too late in recent crisis cases, thus failing to reestablish debt sustainability and market access in a durable way.»
Getting out of a debt trap
Charles Wyplosz and Pierre Pâris, 2013.
Mutual Agreement for Public Debt Restructuring in the Eurozone: The MADRE Plan
Debt re-profiling
¤ Extend maturity
¤ Adjust interest rate
¤ Preserve (or not) present value
¤ Preserve (or not) nominal value
Rescheduling vs Restructuring
Re-profiling the Cyprus debt
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Original debt Restructured debt
Issues in Debt Re-profiling
Issues in debt re-profiling
1. Face and market value of bonds or loans
2. Amortization schedule (bullet vs amortization, existence of a sinking fund)
3. Interest rate and coupon (fixed vs flexible, step-up or linked)
4. Currency of denomination of the instruments (local vs foreign)
5. Enhancements, including embedded options or collateral
6. Legal clauses (CACs, non-default clauses, exit consents).
Who does it?
¤ OSI vs PSI
¤ Paris Club
¤ London Club
¤ International Institute of Finance
¤ ECB, EC, IMF (the Troika)
¤ Coordination problems
How to do it?
Principles for Stable Capital Flows and Fair Debt Restructuring, 2013, Washington, DC: International Institute of Finance.
1. Transparency and Timely Flow of Information
2. Close Debtor-Creditor Dialogue and Cooperation to Avoid Restructuring
3. Good-Faith Actions
4. Fair Treatment
Argentina and Greek Debt Restructuring
Argentina 2000-2005 crisis buildup
¤ Asian crisis 1997-1998 => -10% price of Argentinean exports
¤ Russian crisis 1998 => Increase Argentinean borrowing costs
¤ Devaluation of Brazilian real 1999 => -20% price of exports
Parliament refuses budget cuts in 1999!
¤ Debt to GDP ratio 1998:
Canada 94%, USA 64%, Brazil 42%, Argentina 38%,
¤ Interest paid on external debt as % of exports 1995 => 21% 2001 => 36%
(Brazil 25%, Chile 9%)
Argentinean debt crisis unravels
¤ $40 billion “blindaje” with international lenders, Dec. 2000
¤ Rates drop by 300bp
¤ Swap $4 billion bonds with longer maturities, Feb. 2001
¤ Mega-swap $30 billion at higher interest rates, June 2001 ¤ $8 billion deferred 2002 ¤ $16 billion deferred 2005 ¤ $8 billion IMF financing
¤ $55 billion bond swap with debt guarantees from financial tax, Nov. 2001
Argentinean debt climax
¤ Downratings by agencies
¤ Spread 2000 bp
¤ Bank runs
¤ Corralito in Dec. 2001
¤ IMF suspends disbursement
¤ Political instability
¤ January 2002 defaults on $28 million lira-denominated bond
¤ Argentinean bonds trade at 80% discount
Argentinean debt crisis management
¤ Peso devaluation in 2002
¤ IMF refinancing $21 billion 2003 UNCONDITIONAL
¤ GDP growth in 2003 and 2004
¤ Debt restructuring 2005: ¤ Bond exchange 35 cents per $
¤ Local law
¤ Holdouts – vulture funds.
The Greek public debt crisis
IMF projections of Greek program
PSI and PSI+
¤ July 2011, 21% PV haircut
¤ October 2011, 80% haircut on PV and 50% on nominal
¤ Euro 130 billion assistance package
¤ Euro 100 billion debt write-off
Bank of Cyprus exposure to GGB
The greatest carry trade ever
¤ Acharya and Steffen, May 2013
¤ ECB repos and invest in periphery countries
¤ Bank of Cyprus ¤ Euro 3 billion repos T 1.25%
¤ 20% of bank profitability
¤ Sovereign default NOT in EBA stress tests!
Who paid the Greek PSI
!! CY!! GR! Germany!! Belgium!! France!! Portugal!PSI!losses!!(!bil!!€)! 4,14! 24,3! 3,6! 2,1! 5,04! 0,42!%!GDP!! 23.03! 11.65! 0.14! 0.56! 0,25! 0,25!!
Was Cyprus in trouble?
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Ireland
Greece
Cyprus
Cyprus -post Greek PSI
Mature economies
Households NFC FINANCIAL Govt
35
Cyprus Tipping Point: the banking sector?
Source¨ECB, 2009.
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500%
Κυπρος Ελλαδα Ιρλανδια Λουξεμβουργο Μαλτα Ολλανδια ΗνωμενοΒασιλειο
ΣΥΝΟΛΟ
ΕΝΕΡΓΗΤΙΚΟΥ
(%
ΤΟΥ
ΑΕΠ
)
Ξενα Υποκαταστηματα Ξενες Θυγατρικες Ντοπιες Τραπεζες
New meaning to political risk
Bail in
• Bad Politics in the Way of Good Policy • Haircut money laundering Russian oligarchs
Basel Institute of Governance AML Index
Cyprus 4.93
Holland 5.03
Germany 5.80
Financial Action Task Force
Who gets a haircut?
68.4 billion in Jan. 2013
26-30 billion Russian money
What does a haircut look like?
Russian “oligarchs” è Eurobankers
Wipe out wealth 30% GDP
Slash business activity 9%-25% GDP
Freeze 70% of domestic lending
Freeze working capital of SMEs
And the GDP?
IMF projections pre-eurogroup -3.5%
IMF projections post-eurogroup
-9%
Massive legal problems
Emergency Liquidity Assistance worth 9.2 billion
Extended to an apparently insolvent bank for 1 year
Passed on improperly to a solvent bank
Where was ECB?
What does a haircut look like?
Scenario Analysis for Optimal Debt Restructuring
¤ Multi-period
¤ Dynamic
¤ Snowball effects
¤ Risk adjusted sustainability analysis
Exampled: Cyprus debt profile
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Original debt Restructured debt
Multi-period scenario tree
Scenario arithmetic for fiscal dynamics
Scenario arithmetic for debt sustainability
Model equations
Stress Debt
Sturzenegger and Zettelmeyer, 2006 Debt defaults and lessons from a decade of crises, MIT Press
Risk profile of debt
Conditional Debt-at-Risk
¤ Arzner et al. CVaR
¤ Uryasev and Rockafellar CVaR optimization
IMF Stylized example
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Original debt Restructured debt
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Original debt Restructured -no haircut Restructured -haircut
IMF example re-profiled
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0 800,0 900,0
Tho
usa
nds
Cyprus discretized example
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2016 2023 2030
Original debt Restructured -no haircut Restructured -haircut
Cyprus debt re-profiling
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5
Exp
ec
ted
Co
st
Conditional VaR
M1 M2-NoH M2-H
Debt to GDP for re-profiled debt
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4
Exp
ec
ted
Co
st
Conditional VaR
M0 M1 M2-NoH M2-H
European Stability Bonds
¤ Blue bonds-red bonds
¤ Debt redemption fund
61
Debt/GDP ratio
Debt/GDP ratio
Borrowing rate
Borrowing rate
European Stability Bonds
¤ Pool sovereign bonds and collateralize ¤ European Safe Bonds –ESBies
¤ European Junior Bonds –EJBies
¤ ESBies have no country risk
¤ ESBies create reserve currency
¤ Flight from EJBies to ESBies
¤ No EU institutional or Treaty modification
62
European Stability Bonds
Suspiciously similar to CMOs
The Greek debt profile with eurobonds
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
1750
1850
1950
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
1750
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Exp
ec
ted
Co
st
Cost-at-Risk
Greece with Eu-bonds Germany Greece
Conclusions
¤ Debt restructuring is costly
¤ Debt restructuring is mutually beneficial to debtors and creditors
¤ Need for better debt restructuring technology
¤ Risk adjusted
My own papers on this
¤ Cyprus debt. The perfect crisis and a way forward http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2233239
¤ Fairness and reflexivity in the Cyprus banking crisis http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2409284
¤ With Andrea Consiglio Risk profiles for sovereign debt restructuring (in preparation).