Risk, Reality, Reason: Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards End-To-End Standards

and Acceptable Riskand Acceptable Risk

Risk, Reality, Reason: Risk, Reality, Reason: End-To-End Standards End-To-End Standards

and Acceptable Riskand Acceptable Risk

Erastus Hamm

Dow Chemical Corporation

Erastus Hamm

Dow Chemical Corporation

Balance of riskBalance of risk

Cycle of riskCycle of risk

Risk and other thingsRisk and other things

Salome JERRYSPRINGER

May 1, 2005:

AR CalculatorAR Calculator

Acceptable RiskAcceptable Risk

Gov’t risk assessmentGov’t risk assessment

Until 1974: Company proves safety

After 1974:Government proves danger

National to globalNational to global

OECDTesting Initiative Stopped

(1982)

REACHRisk Protocols Halted

(2001)

“Sane-ing up” risk

Core DB >500,000 cases 84 parameters

Location Timeframe Casualties Financial results Collateral damage Time until legal

“closure” Etc.

Core DB >500,000 cases 84 parameters

Location Timeframe Casualties Financial results Collateral damage Time until legal

“closure” Etc.

Ancillary DBs Production substances

and their risks Legal environments Cost of litigation per

unit time Income levels Medical costs Climatic variations Histories of unrest Cultural particuliarities Etc.

Ancillary DBs Production substances

and their risks Legal environments Cost of litigation per

unit time Income levels Medical costs Climatic variations Histories of unrest Cultural particuliarities Etc.

Mitigated Causality / Indirect OwnershipMitigated Causality / Indirect OwnershipUnproven Harm / Diffuse RiskUnproven Harm / Diffuse RiskMarginal Target / Unclear ImpactMarginal Target / Unclear ImpactUncertain Provenance / Diverse AgencyUncertain Provenance / Diverse Agency

Risk typesRisk types

UH/DRUH/DRMC/IOMC/IO

MT/UIMT/UIUP/DAUP/DA

Unproven Harm / Diffused Risk

Unproven Harm / Diffused Risk

Mitigated Causality / Indirect Ownership

Mitigated Causality / Indirect Ownership

$2.0B$1.5B -

$1.7B - $0.4B

=

=

Marginal Target /Unclear Impact

Marginal Target /Unclear Impact

Uncertain Provenance /Diverse Agency

Uncertain Provenance /Diverse Agency

CompetitorsCompetitors

Gilda says:

The only good skeleton…The only good skeleton…

… is a gold skeleton!… is a gold skeleton!