river basin community elbe (fgg) & german federal institute of … · 2019. 4. 16. · river basin...
TRANSCRIPT
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River Basin Community Elbe (FGG) & German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)
„Effect of dams in CZ and TH on floods at the Elbe river“Results of the project „Homogenisation of long HQ data series (1890 – 2013)
of gauges on the German reach of the River Elbe“
Project editors:Marcus Hatz, Jörg-Uwe Belz, Norbert Busch, Maria Larina-Pooth (BfG), Pavel Balvín (T.G. Masaryk Water Research Institute), Jakub Krejčí (Aqualogic Consulting)
Project support:German-czech ICPER expert group under the leadership of Jörg-Uwe Belz
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
sou
rce:
dam
Orl
íkat
th
e V
ltav
a(1
2.0
8.2
015
)
1
-
2
Reduction of flood peaks by dams in Czech Republic and Thuringiab
ackg
rou
nd
sou
rce: http
://ww
w.lab
el-eu.eu
/
Saale mouth
aver
age
wat
erle
velr
edu
ctio
np
er r
iver
segm
ent
[cm
]
2002 used storage volume: 169 million m³
2006 used storage volume: 518 million m³
2011 used storage volume: 328 million m³
2013 used storage volume: 155 million m³
[up to calculations from BfG (2012) and BfG (2013)]
riversegment
Schöna
river segment
Dresdenriver segment
Torgauriver segment
Wittenberg
riversegment
Aken
river segment
Barbyriver segment
Tangermünde
riversegment
Witten-berge
river segment
Neu Darchau
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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3
Development of the controllable storage level in dams in the Elbe catchment
1932+: dams at Saale river
1960+: Vltava river cascade / Nechranice sou
rce: IKSE(2
005): D
ie Elbe u
nd
ihr
Einzu
gsgebiet, Seite 3
6
con
tro
llab
lest
ora
gevo
lum
e[m
illio
nm
³]
Yearcontrollable storage volume [million m³]
Czech Republic Germany Sum
Czech Republic Germany Sum
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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4
Physical inhomogeneity of long HQ-series (1890 – 2013) at Elbe river gauges
gauge Barby (OD)
pea
kd
isch
arge
[m³/
s]
„natural“ condition
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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HQ [m³/s]model state 1977 (without retention measures)
5
Excursus: Homogenisation of HQ statistics for gauges in the Rhine catchment
HQ
[m
³/s]
mo
del
sta
te1
99
8(w
ith
sele
cted
mea
sure
s)
Activities of „Hochwasserstudienkommission“ (HSK, 1978) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (u.a- ICPR / BfG, 1999)
sou
rce: BfG
(19
99
): Einflu
ssd
er geplan
tenR
etentio
nsm
aßn
ahm
enan
Ob
er-u
nd
Mittelrh
einau
f extreme A
bflü
sseam
Nied
errhein
regression (3)
range of validityHQ-state 1977 > 6006 m³/s
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
gauge Cologne
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6
Modelling systemes: German Elbe river, Saale river and the Czech Elbe-catchment
sou
rce:
IKSE
(20
05
): D
ie E
lbe
un
d ih
r Ei
nzu
gsge
bie
t
1D-SOBEK-Elbe (BfG)
1D-SOBEK-Saale (BfG)
WTM-Saale (BfG)
Aqualog-model (Aqualogic Consulting)
including two models of the Vltava river: historical state(without dams) and at current state(including dams)
1
2
3
4
dams:1: Bleiloch and Hohenwarte (Saale) 2: Lipno (Vltava)3: Orlík (Vltava)4: Nechranice (Eger)
catchment Elbe river
legendcatchment border Elbestate bordersub-catchmentriver > 1700 km² catchmentsewer
lake
cities > 1.000.000 residents
cities > 90.000 residentskilometrage
Size of catchment [km²]
map scale
measured discharge (gauge)hydraulic model (HN)Aqualog-modelhistorical HN-modellateral inflow node
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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7
Model results: flood 2013 / differenz states / gauge Barby
MQ
HQ2
HQ5
HQ10
HQ50
HQ100
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000A
bfl
uss
[m
³/s]
Ohne Talsperren (Zustand 1890) mit Saaletalsperren
mit Saaletalsperren und TS Lipno mit Saaletalsperren und Moldaukaskade
alle Talsperren (Ist-Zustand) ohne Talsperren (Zustand 2013)
Hydrographs of the flood06/2013 for six different model states (without dikebreaks)
dis
char
ge[m
³/s]
without dams (state 1890)
including Saale-dams and dam Lipno
including all dams (as-is-state)
including Saale dams
including Saale dams and Vltava river cascade
without dams (state 2013)
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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8
Characteristics of transformation functions, determined for homogenisation
oS-oLi-oOr-oNe(1890) mS-mLi-mOr-mNe(2013)
mS-oLi-oOr-oNemS-mLi-mOr-mNe
mS-mLi-oOr-oNemS-mLi-mOr-mNe
mS-mLi-mOr-oNemS-mLi-mOr-mNe
mS-mLi-mOr-mNe(MOD) mS-mLi-mOr-mNe(2013)
identity line
stat
e2
01
3 [
dis
chra
ge, m
³/s]
state 1890 (without dams) resp. intermediate states [discharge, m³/s]
gauge Wittenberge
summerfloods
winterfloods
*glossary of the several model states according to BfG-Bericht 1938.
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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9
Results: Homogeneous HQ-series / state „2013“ (including effects of dams)
flood 1920
state 1890 (without effects of dams)state2013
gauge Wittenberge (OD)
intermediate states (increasing effects of dams)
pe
akd
isch
arge
[m³/
s]
pea
k d
isch
arge
dif
fere
nce
[h
om
oge
neo
us
–in
ho
mo
gen
eou
s se
ries
; m³/
s]
year
inhomogeneous series HQ-OD homogeneous series state 2013 HQ-OD ∆ peak discharge values
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
-
10
Results: Homogeneous HQ-series / state „1890“ (without effects of dams)
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
90001
89
0
18
93
18
96
18
99
19
02
19
05
19
08
19
11
19
14
19
17
19
20
19
23
19
25
19
29
19
32
19
35
19
38
19
41
19
44
19
47
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
Dif
fere
nz
de
r Sc
hh
eit
ela
bfl
üss
e [
ho
mo
gen
-in
ho
mo
gen
; m³/
s]
Sch
eit
ela
bfl
uss
[m
³/s]
Jahr
Homogene Reihen Zustand 1890 HQ-WQE Inhomogene Reihe HQ-WQE DELTA-HQ-Werte
flood 2006
gauge Dresden (OD)
state 1890 (without effects of dams)state2013
intermediate states (increasing effects of dams)
pea
kd
isch
arge
[m³/
s]
pea
k d
isch
arge
dif
fere
nce
[h
om
oge
neo
us
–in
ho
mo
gen
eou
s se
ries
; m³/
s]
year
inhomogeneous series HQ-WQEhomogeneous series state 1890 HQ-WQE ∆ peak discharge values
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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11
Results of the statistical calculations: example 100-year-floods
Homogeneous series state 1890 – „OD“ Inhomogeneous series – „OD“ Homogeneous series state 2013 – „OD“
without damsWittenberge:
4970 m³/s
inhomogeneousWittenberge:
4750 m³/s
including damsWittenberge:
4560 m³/s-230 m³/s -190 m³/s
BfG-Project „W-Q-Elbe 1890“
Intention: …consolidation of a reliable database for hydologicalworking and thereon establishedmanagement activities at the German Elbe river.
Output: improved, but still inhomogeneous HQ-series!
Figure: annualchange of tQ(max)-values [in %] (still including effectsby dams)
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
-
12
Results of the statistical calculations: example 100-year-floods
Homogeneous series state 1890 – „OD“ Inhomogeneous series – „OD“ Homogeneous series state 2013 – „OD“
Homogeneous series state 1890 – „WQE“ Inhomogeneous series – „WQE“ Homogeneous series state 2013 – „WQE“
without damsWittenberge:
4700 m³/s
inhomogeneousWittenberge:
4540 m³/s
including damsWittenberge:
4290 m³/s
-270 m
³/s
-210 m
³/s
-270 m
³/s
-230 m³/s -190 m³/s
-240 m³/s -250 m³/s
without damsWittenberge:
4970 m³/s
inhomogeneousWittenberge:
4750 m³/s
including damsWittenberge:
4560 m³/s
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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13
What‘s next? - Handling of project results!
Expert Meeting „Statistical basics for flood protection at the Elbe river“
(14th/15th of March, 2018, Magdeburg)
Usage of „official data“ or project data „WQ-Elbe 1890“?
Distinction between basic hydrological statistics anddefinitions for design floods?
New distinctions for design floods required?
Is a transfer of knowledge from Homgenisationproject for future tasks possible?
Coordination at international Elbe river catchment?
Additional, new calculation of flood plains for FloodRisk Management Directive necessary?
Considerung effects of dams as additional safetymargin (climate change)?
Based on the expert meeting, proposals for the decision of the German River Basin Community Elbe have been developed until the end of 2018!
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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New official HQ-statistics
10 decisions of the „Elberat“ (31. meeting, 02.11.2018), e.g.:
gauge HQ2 HQ5 HQ10 HQ20 HQ50 HQ100 HQ200 BHQ
discharge [m³/s]state 1890
(state without effects of the dams based on the databasis „WQE“)Basic peak discharge for
Q100 design flood
Dresden 1610 2180 2600 3100 3800 4360 4950 4370
Torgau 1570 2140 2560 3060 3740 4280 4840 ***
Barby 2240 2970 3450 3960 4590 5050 5480 4920
Magdeburg 2210 2940 3400 3890 4460 4850 5230 4870
Tangermünde 2220 2950 3420 3900 4470 4860 5230 4770
Wittenberge 2190 2860 3300 3760 4310 4700 5060 4545
Neu Darchau 2140 2730 3130 3560 4100 4480 4860 4450
Principles for regular examination of flood statistics
Principles for dealing with variations of values and cross-border involvement (federal states)
Principles for considering of flood protection measures in flood statistics
Coordinated approach for model-based calculation of longitudinal water levels for BHQ and HQT
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
*** still in discussion
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15
Effects of dams at nine gauges along the Elbe river
Comparison of the HQT-values, calculated from the homogeneous series „1890“ & „2013“
data: statistic values based on project data „WQ-Elbe 1890“
relative values: in % from HQT-values without effects of dams (state 1890)
Uppper Elbe
Lower Middle-Elbe
Optimum effects of dams occur for floods with discharge HQ5-20. The effects are decreasing alongthe Elbe river from Dresden (> 14% / HQ10) to Neu Darchau (> 8% / HQ10) .
maximum value
dam
effe
cts
[in
%,
bas
ed
on
HQ
T-va
lues
wit
ho
ut
dam
effe
cts]
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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16
Testing of the „German“ homogenisation method for gauge Ustí nad Labem (CZ)
gauge HQ1 HQ2 HQ5 HQ10 HQ20 HQ50 HQ100 HQ200
Ustí n.L.(official values:
http://hydro.chmu.cz)1240 n/a 2220 2670 n/a 3780 4290 n/a
Ustí n.L.(homogeneous series, state
without effects of dams, BfG-method)
n/a 1590 2140 2550 3040 3730 4280 4870
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Ustí n.L.(offiziell)
Ustí n.L.(BfG-Verfahren)
dis
char
ge H
QT
HQ(1)
HQ(2)
HQ(5)
HQ(10)
HQ(20)
HQ(50)
HQ(100)
HQ(200)
Δ = -10 m³/s
Δ = -120 m³/s
Δ = -50 m³/s
Δ = -80 m³/s
(official) (BfG-method)
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
dis
char
geH
QT
dis
char
geH
QT
HQ2 HQ5 HQ10 HQ20 HQ50 HQ100 HQ200
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
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17
Marcus Hatz
BfG, Department M2
phone: +49 261/1306-5574
e-mail: [email protected]
Thank you for your attention.
source: dam Bleiloch at the Saale river (24.07.2014)
BfG-Bericht 1938:available in German language
http://doi.bafg.de/BfG/2018/BfG-1938.pdf
The translation into Czech language is under way!
„International Panel on the Elbe River 2019“, 9th/10th of April, 2019, Dresden on the current implementation of the EC-Water Framework Directive and the EC-Floods-Directive in the Elbe catchment
http://doi.bafg.de/BfG/2018/BfG-1938.pdf