road less travelled - phillip capital

Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.

INSIDE THE ISSUE

Ground check for DFM Foods: Key takeaways

Detailed story on pg. 2

VST Industries channel check: Volume still below pre-covid levels Detailed story on pg. 4

Nashik paint dealer (largest, multi-brand) interaction: Key takeaways Detailed story on pg. 3

RETROSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE Key trends of the last few weeks….

Lancet report says Covid-19 is primarily airborne

US Russia relations deteriorate Is China likely to invade Taiwan?

Good news! Vaccine hesitancy in India reduces

China to issue digital currency soon

5G future

News round-up of the month Detailed story on pg. 5-8

Road Less Travelled

20 April 2021 | Vol-3, Issue-4 MONTHLY PUBLICATION

20 April 2021 | Vol-3, Issue-4 | Page - 2 Road Less Travelled | MONTHLY NEWSLETTER

Ground check for DFM Foods: Key takeaways by Vishal Gutka

Moderate sequential revenue growth in 4QFY21 • Our ground checks suggest that DFM Foods has seen low-single-digit revenue growth sequentially, as schools remain closed, and the second covid-19 wave forces customers to stay

indoors. • However, Covid-19 has been a blessing in the disguise for the

company – it has been able to significantly reduce its dependence on Crax Rings (target audience – school kids) and ramp up its salience from other products (Curls, Frittis, Cheese Balls, etc).

• Moreover, it has reduced grammage by almost 10% across its SKUs in order to combat inflationary pressure in palm oil price

Making a foray into the largest segment (potato chips) Let us understand some key facts about the snacks market: • Salty snacks is a Rs 300bn category, of which western snacks and

Indian namkeen each contribute Rs 150bn; this category is seeing 11-12% CAGR.

• Western salty snacks is further divided into potato chips (55% share), extruded snacks (25% share), puff category (15% share) and nachos (5% share). Within this, nachos is the fastest-growing segment.

• In the western salty category, Bingo (ITC) and Pepsi have a market share of c.35% each followed by Haldiram at c.15% while Balaji Wafers has c.10%; that too by being present only in Maharashtra and Gujarat. The rest of the small firms have 5% share.

• So far, DFM Foods has not been present in the largest segment, i.e., potato chips, given the presence of strong incumbents. Our ground checks indicate that it is running a pilot project in select states / strongholds and is using the current crash in potato prices (down 30-35%) to offer great value for money. Even if it can garner 5-10% market share within the potato chips market, it holds the potential to double its revenue.

Metamorphosis from conservatism to full aggression • Erstwhile promoters (when it was a family-run enterprise) were

quite conservative and cost-conscious in their approach to drive sales, but the new management (PE firm) is receptive to changes, and is looking to invest significantly behind brands and marketing infrastructure if they can foresee incremental sales from new initiatives.

New launches in the last 12 months are doing well • Crax Noodles variant initially faced many hiccups, since the

company had made a big-bang launch on a pan-India basis and placed it in the wholesale channel vs. its general approach of piloting in select markets and only then rolling out Pan-India.

• The management has made required corrections for Crax Noodles. All its new launches (such as Bowls) over the past 12 months have seen good consumer offtake.

Distribution expansion continues • The management is very clear that it wants to increase the width

and depth of distribution, and is taking the required steps to improve the quality of distribution (has added lot of rural distributors in the past 12 months). Although it is present pan-India, it intends to focus on north and west India (70% of the snacks market), as its brand is quite entrenched in the north.

• South India contributes only c.15% of the snacks market, given the presence of local hot banana players and the custom of making snacks at home. It is going to be difficult for DFM Foods to serve the southern markets, given that its plant is located in north India and snacks are a freight-intensive category and highly competitive at the time.

Competition is a mixed bag • Pepsi and ITC continue to hold the fort, while Prataap snacks and

Too Yum (RPG ventures) are struggling. Prataap snacks mainly caters to SEC C and SEC D, who have been meaningfully impacted by Covid-19; moreover, these days, kids don’t go to outlets to purchase snacks products.

• Parents prefer DFM over Prataap, given better quality and brand recall.

• After the initial fanfare, Too Yum’s growth has subsided due to lack of repeat purchases and the company withdrawing promotions / discounts and incentives given to the trade channels.


Nashik paint dealer (largest, multi-brand) interaction: Key takeaways We interacted with the largest multi-brand paint dealer from Nashik to better understand demand trends and strategies that

newbies (such as JSW Paints) are planning to make their presence felt in the market by Vishal Gutka

Organized paint players are doing very well • The projects business is on an accelerated growth mode: Paint

contractors have healthy order books since real-estate developers are focusing on giving possession to buyers, and there is good uptick in real-estate demand due to lower interest rates.

• Market-share gain from unorganized sector continues: Smaller players are struggling to procure raw materials, pushing up their costs, forcing them to take (inadequate) price hikes. However, large companies are not taking price hikes. This is pushing these smaller brands to the wall.

• Delayed price hikes: Organized paint players were the last to hike prices, which led the top-4 to gain market share. Asian Paints (market leader) was able to gain the maximum; it plans to hike prices from 1 May 2021. Aggregate price hikes will be only 2-3%, much below what unorganized companies (who were forced to increase prices due to the RM situation).

• Upgradation and premiumization story continues: Economy emulsions (Rs 90-110/litres) is the fastest-growing category, as consumers upgrade from distempers. Also, in the past 20 years, exterior paints have shifted from cement paints towards economy exterior emulsions. Consumers are using premium products in mini metros and tier 1 and 2 cities and the functionality of products is also helping the growth of premium products.

• Volume growth of 20-25% is easily doable on a yoy basis for the big 4 in 4QFY21 due to a favourable base and pent-up demand.

Ancillary products (putty, waterproofing) are growing much faster than the paint market • The putty market is growing faster than paints, as construction has

shifted from bricks to other formats such as RCC and paint companies are leveraging their distribution network to their advantage. Moreover, putty is also used to smoothen walls.

• Most putty production is outsourced, since margins are thin and freight cost could impact profitability. Notably, since RM is available in only 4-5 pockets in India, production and sourcing becomes important.

• Waterproofing is doing quite well as more painters are advocating this to customers, and due to better range availability.

What strategy is JSW Paints adopting to make inroads in an oligopolistic market ? This dealer gets c.20% of his total business from selling JSW’s paints. JSW Paints has been able to make inroads due to its differentiated strategy of:

Selling all shades at one price, while competition prices shades differently.

Combining primer with paint, so that applicator does not have to spend separately on primer, leading to savings.

Better quality of products, which leads to better coverage on wall vs. competition.

Taking care of all stakeholders: • Dealer: Higher margin + clear instruction from the top

management to sell products at MRP, thereby eliminating undercutting amongst dealers.

• Applicator: Higher reward points vs. competition. Moreover, instant redemption of this into bank accounts. In case of competition, applicators can redeem rewards points only once they cross a certain threshold level, and have to approach dealers / third-party for redemption.

• Consumer: Improved quality + lower man hours leads to savings in total contract cost.

a) Unique approach of placing tinting machines in dealers’ shops: • Most new entrants/ challenger brands make tinting machine

available to dealers (free), if they achieve sales targets within a certain time frame. However, this puts lot of pressure on them to achieve targets.

• JSW requires dealers to pay Rs 70,000 upfront for the machine, for which they are given a credit note worth Rs 5,000 each time they sell Rs 300,000 worth of products. On achieving sales of Rs 4.2mn, the machine becomes free for the dealer. The most important thing is there is no time limit to achieve this.


VST Industries channel check: Volume still below pre-covid levels Focussing on new markets and premiumization to compensate by Vishal Gutka

Few details about the “Total” brand • In the RSFT segment, VST Industries was the first to introduce

capsule-based cigarettes in India, but ITC was the first to do so in the KSFT segment. “Total” was introduced on a pan-India basis in 2015.

• It focuses on attracting new young consumers rather than ITC's existing customer base, which has high switching costs. To target young buyers, Total introduced mint and fruit flavours. It is gaining popularity among the youth due to its fruit flavour (strawberry) and the fact that it is considered relatively "light." ITC is flexing its muscles to counter Total's fruit variant with the launch of Flake Fruit (orange); however, consumers seem to prefer VST's products (channel claims ITC's product falls short of expectations).

Partial lock down / curfew to impact volume growth • Volume had recovered to almost 95% of pre-covid levels in

4QFY21; however, the second covid-19 wave is likely to play havoc. Prolonged lockdowns in major cities had a negative impact on cigarette sales due to decreased mobility and out-of-home use.

• In many states, movement after 8 PM is significantly curtailed, which is the peak time for the company, since many of the customers in tier 2/ tier 3 cities go for a stroll and smoke.

Business expansion in north India may drive volume growth: • Until Feb 2021, VST Industries, which entered north India in

January 2019, was seeing good traction for its Total brand because of better rewards, a strong product proposition, and strong partnerships. While COVID-19's non-availability has stymied optimistic growth trends, things are steadily changing.

• The initial success of the Total brand in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and MP (reached at 85% of pre-covid level) has provided a new lever of business growth. VST plans to enter Gujarat and Jammu in FY22, where it does not have a meaningful presence.

GPI losing its core base of smokers • In regular size filter tip (RSFT, its core segment), VST has become

the second-largest player at the national level in terms of volume

growth, though Godfrey Phillips India has slipped to third due to supply-chain constraints. ITC has eaten GPI’s market share in Himachal, Jammu, and Gujarat due to low prices.

• GPI has not evolved its product based on trends and preferences of the current audience (youth), who prefer lighter products and who smoke for showing off. Its core customers (most of them are above the age of 45 years) who used to consume entire bulk packs are drastically cutting down on consumption due to age / health related concerns.

Competition • Companies are offering a variety of schemes to capture market

share. To compete with “Total” brand (VST Industries), ITC is selling “Indie Mint” for Rs 62 instead of Rs 88, a pan-flavoured cigarette, to fill the demand gap left by GoldFlake (which has been losing market share).

• Today, flavoured cigarettes (Indie Mint and Flake Mint) account for around 40-50% of ITC’s sales and also give a margin of 35-40% for the retailer (he was talking more specifically with regards to the Indie Mint brand).

• After covid, it created Indie Mint. According to channel checks, lower demand has forced the market leader to follow a higher discounting strategy.

New CEO – Focussed on growth • VST Industries’ new CEO (Mr Aditya Gooptu) has come from GPI

(where he had spent significant time on sales and marketing) and has been receptive of suggestions from the ground staff for sales and distribution infrastructure changes.

• Our channel checks suggest that sales and distribution infra has undergone a complete overhaul and has moved from manual system to salesforce software automation.


RETROSPECTIVE PERSPECTIVE

– by Roshan Sony

Snippets

Key trends of the last few weeks…. Second covid wave hits India’s Maharashtra and financial capital

Mumbai like a tonne of bricks. It later begins to spread to the rest of India. First-dose vaccinations are still less than 10% of India’s population, and several states face vaccine shortages. Night curfews and weekend lockdowns imposed in many cities.

Indian banks/economy braces for more pain, as the second wave is predicted to increase loan default rates and worsen asset quality. Income and job losses are feared. A labour crisis is also feared as migrant workers start returning home once again.

Virologist Dr Shahid Jameel says the second wave could continue till the end of May and the number of new daily cases may rise to about 300,000.

The Kumbh Mela in Haridwar, becomes a super-spreader event. Held once in 12 years, it was restricted to a month this time, instead of the usual 3.5 months.

US plateaus at about 60k cases per day (c.40% population gets first dose). Bangladesh sees second wave. UK cases begin to decline (c.50% vaccinated). Japan cases rise (1%). Parts of Europe in the middle of a third wave; vaccination levels are at around 12% for key countries. Russia cases begin to decline. Brazil wave continues. Some parts of the ME also see a rise in cases.

Bank of America reports that more money has poured into stock funds within the past five months (US$ 569bn) than the previous 12 years combined (US$ 452bn). Also shows that four-week average of share buybacks hit a record of nearly US$ 2bn and that Wall Street may be on track for US$ 900bn of gross S&P 500 buybacks in 2021.

Prez Biden’s US$ 2tn infrastructure investment plan creates ripples – lawmakers will try to get the plan approved by July 4.

In the US, stimulus checks, vaccine progress, good weather, and businesses re-opening lead to better consumer spending in March.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet balloons to US$ 7.7tn (post pandemic) from US$ 4.2tn pre-pandemic.

Gartner says PC shipments in the March quarter globally were up 32% – the fastest growth in the last 20 years.

India Unicorns: Six India companies, including Mohalla Tech (raised US$ 502mn) and messaging platform Gupshup (raised US$ 100mn) valued at over a billion dollars. India’s first start-up unicorn, InMobi Pte. Ltd., gears up for US public market debut.

India comes in at an appalling #140 among 156 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report 2021; slips 28 places over 2020.

The situation in Hong Kong worsens as HK court convicts pro-democracy camp members.

Lancet report says Covid-19 is primarily airborne Says safety protocol should change urgently. Basically, people would have to wear masks almost all the time, even in their homes. Top reasons Lancet provided to support its thesis: 1. Detailed analyses of human behaviours and interactions, room sizes,

ventilation, etc., are consistent with airborne spread and cannot be adequately explained by droplets or fomites.

2. Long-range transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between people in adjacent rooms but never in each other's presence has been documented in quarantine hotels.

3. 33-59% of all Covid-19 cases could be attributed to asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from people who are not coughing or sneezing, which supports predominantly airborne transmission.

4. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is higher indoors than outdoors. 5. Hospital infections documented at places where healthcare

professionals used PPEs designed to protect against droplet but not aerosol exposure.

6. SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in air. In lab experiments, it stayed infectious in the air for up to 3 hours.

7. The virus has been identified in air filters/ducts in hospitals with COVID-19 patients, which could be reached only by aerosols.

8. Studies involving infected caged animals showed transmission of the virus via an air ducts.

9. No strong or consistent evidence available that refutes airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission + limited evidence to support other dominant routes of transmission (droplet or fomite).


US Russia relations deteriorate The strain between the two countries deepens. US sanctions and

expulsions came two days after Prez Biden spoke to Prez Putin on the phone, and while Russia retaliated swiftly, the consensus is that its response has been measured.

Russia to expel 10 US diplomats and blacklist eight current and former US officials in response to US sanctions and expulsions.

The US has decided to expel 10 Russian diplomats, place sanctions on 32 Russia-related individuals and companies. US has claimed that most on the expulsion list are intelligence officers working under diplomatic cover.

US has also banned US financial institutions from buying Russian bonds. It is believed that this could stem investments in Russian bonds and increase the country’s borrowing costs.

The Biden administration has sanctioned Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, the SVR, formally accusing it of the sweeping SolarWinds cyberattack, which targeted government agencies and private companies.

In a telling quote, SVR head Sergei Naryshkin said to the media: “The competition between the world’s leading intelligence services should be fair. The package of U.S. sanctions is a manifestation of unfair competition.”

Is China likely to invade Taiwan? Island country Taiwan has lived under the threat of Chinese military action for the past 70 years. However, from September 2020, China’s aggression has increased, and the magnitude of China’s ariel incursions into Taiwan’s airspace have significantly stepped up. In what could be the largest display ever, 25 Chinese warplanes recently flew into Taiwan's airspace.

President Tsai Ing-wen What could have pushed China towards taking a more aggressive stance since 2016 is Tsai Ing-wen, who was first elected Taiwan’s president in 2016. She has fought hard to create a unique Taiwanese identity in the international political landscape. Her close relationship with the US has not gone down well with Beijing either. Since taking office, she has upped arms purchases from the US and increased Taiwan’s defence budget.

Invasion impossible? Maybe not China considers Taiwan a rogue province and believes that it will eventually be ‘reunified’ with the PRC. Meanwhile, it has chosen ‘reserve the right’ to use all measures to achieve this goal, including the use of military force. On the other hand, so frequent have become China’s incursions that Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense is not scrambling aircrafts to meet them, rather it has chosen to track them with missiles – an ominous sign if any. An attack on Taiwan would not only be difficult (in terms of military strategy to minimise losses), but would also draw Taiwan’s closest allies, including the US, to its aid. While it does not seem like China is ready to take such drastic action, stranger things have happened of late.

Good news! Vaccine hesitancy in India reduces A survey published by YouGov in January showed that only a third of Indians wanted to get vaccinated as soon as possible. However, a new survey showed that by the end of March, 57% of urban Indians were eager to get vaccinated. Vaccination hesitancy has reduced because of a clear reduction in new cases in countries that have swiftly vaccinated its population. For example, Israel's rapid vaccination campaign broke the country’s third wave of Covid-19 and its new cases are below 200 from about 8,000 in Jan 2021.

China to issue digital currency soon China grows closer to becoming the first among the world’s major economies to launch a central bank-backed digital currency. As CBDC Renminbi gains traction, analysts say it could threaten dollar dominance. The Wall Street Journal had reported that 750,000 people, determined by a lottery system, received this currency and have already begun to spend their digital Yuan in stores and online using a special app. Reportedly, Starbucks and McDonald’s are among those already accepting the digital Yuan.

According to Bloomberg, four more countries – South Africa, India, Pakistan, and Thailand – plan to launch their own official cryptocurrencies soon.

5G future Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report predicts that the number of 5G smartphone subscriptions worldwide will rise to 600mn by the end of this year, 3x 2020, and that by 2022, 5G subscriptions will become the norm, rising above 1bn. The report says: “5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 3.5 billion globally by the end of 2026, accounting for about 40 percent of total mobile subscriptions. The uptake rate of 5G subscriptions is expected to be significantly higher than it was for 4G.”


News round-up of the month – by Roshan Sony

M a r c h ( 1 5 - 3 1 )

INDIA Govt proposes 25% tax concession on new

vehicles against scrappage certificate. Moody’s says India's inflation 'uncomfortably

high'.

UN report says India's 2021 economic output

is likely to remain below 2019 levels.

Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea pay c.Rs 50bn to the Department of Telecom in licence fee and spectrum usage charges for the January-March quarter.

Tata Mistry case: The Supreme Court says decision to remove Cyrus Mistry was right; sets aside NCLAT order restoring Mistry as executive chairman.

CBI books DHFL

promoters for creating

over 260,000 fake home-loan accounts.

SEBI orders assets attachment of former Yes

Bank MD and CEO Rana Kapoor.

SC lifts stay; Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code starts operations after a year’s gap.

The Credit Guarantee Fund Trust for Micro and Small Enterprises approves 619,000 loans worth Rs 313.5bn in FY21.

Lok Sabha passes Insurance Amendment Bill

2021, FDI raised to 74%.

Household debt soars to 37.1% of GDP,

savings plunge 10.4% in Q2: RBI report.

SEBI amends qualification norms for portfolio

managers, investment advisers, research

analysts.

Finance Ministry allows non-govt provident

funds to invest up to 5% in Alternative

Investment Funds (AIFs).

Foreign portfolio investors invest Rs 173bn in

March, third consecutive month of net buying.

Centre, states mop up record Rs 1.24tn GST in

March.

Credit card spending rises to pre-pandemic

levels in January 2021.

Disinvestment receipts cross revised FY21

target at Rs 328bn.

Regulator probes Suzlon’s accounts.

Edelweiss shares fall on alleged MCA

investigation of alleged financial irregularities

at its asset reconstruction arm.

c.10% of education loans extended by public

sector banks categorised as NPAs as on 31

December.

ICRA estimates net loss incurred by Indian

airports in FY21 at Rs 54bn.

Wholesale price-based inflation in February

rises to 4.17%

RBI rejects Yes Bank’s ARC plan.

Engineering exports jump + 70% in March.

India's active Covid-19 caseload crosses

580,000, 61% in Maharashtra alone.

UN: India abstains from voting on resolution

alleging human rights violations by Sri Lanka

during Tamil Eelam war.

IQAir AirVisual 2020 World Air Quality Report

found that 15 of the world's 20 worst-polluted

cities are in India. The worst is Ghaziabad!

MFs turn net buyers; invest Rs 25bn in equities in March.

INTERNATIONAL US Treasury yields hit a 14-month high.

“Strong data are ahead of us,” says confident Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Reckons 6.5% GDP growth in 2021 from massive federal fiscal stimulus and optimism around the success of coronavirus vaccines.

However, Fitch expects Fed to dial back its COVID-19-related economic support measures from early next year; warns that some of the world’s poorest countries were exposed to the risk of another ‘taper tantrum’.

Credit Suisse says it may have suffered a highly significant loss from a default by a US-based hedge fund; Nomura says it could face a loss of US$ 2bn due to an event with a US client.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accuses Ukraine of "provoking armed confrontation" with pro-Russian separatists in the war-torn eastern portion of the country.

China's National People's Congress Standing Committee members vote in favour of amendments of the Hong Kong Basic Law Annex I and II to overhaul the electoral system.

President Joe Biden signs the PPP Extension Act of 2021, a bill that would extend the Paycheck Protection Program deadline from March 31 to May 31.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro announces a Cabinet reshuffle.

The Suez Canal is blocked for six days in March 2021 after the accidental grounding of Ever Given, a Golden-class container ship.

2020–2021 Belarusian protests: Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya calls for a "Freedom Day" and renewed protests against President Alexander

Lukashenko to mount pressure for him to resign.

AstraZeneca announces that the efficacy rating of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate has been lowered to 76%.

The 2021 redesign of the £50 note, featuring British mathematician Alan Turing on the reverse, is officially unveiled by the Bank of England.

Israelis go to the polls for the fourth time in less than two years.

A Houthi drone strike on a Saudi Aramco oil refinery in the capital Riyadh causes a large fire. Saudi Arabia proposes a ceasefire in Yemen to end the conflict against the Houthi movement.

The Turkish lira plunges by 15% after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fires Governor of the Central Bank Naci Ağbal.

The United States House of Representatives condemns the military coup in Myanmar. Security forces reportedly killed at least 114 people in protests across the country – including six children, ages 10-16.

Russia says wants an apology or explanation from the US after President Biden refers to Vladimir Putin as a soulless killer. Russia recalls its Ambassador to the US.

Poland announces new national lockdown, for three weeks from March 20.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces that the UK's nuclear weapon arsenal will increase from 180 to 260 warheads, and that the UK will shift its foreign policy focus to the Indo-Pacific region, while remaining committed to NATO. The government's review also identifies Russia as the "most acute threat" to British security.

Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 vaccines work in

real-world conditions, found up to 90%

effective: CDC

The US, UK, EU, Canada sanction several Chinese officials for the country's treatment of Uyghurs – a minority Muslim group.

Bernie Madoff, ex-Nasdaq chairman and investment fraudster dies in prison at age 82.

India records 7.39% WPI in March 2021.

IL&FS says it has addressed Rs 430bn aggregate group debt through the sale of assets and other cash receivables; c.71% of the overall targeted recovery value.

Class 12 board examinations under the Central Board of Secondary Education postponed; class 10 exams cancelled.

After nearly two years, Pakistan lifts a ban on the imports of Indian sugar and cotton.


Govt slashes rates on PPF, small savings schemes, later rolls it back.

Europe can achieve herd immunity by July: EU commissioner.

Heavy rain forces evacuations, flood warnings on Australia's east coast.

A p r i l ( 1 - 1 5 )

INDIA Cairn offers to forego US$ 500 mn if India

agrees to pay principal due.

Inflow into gold ETFs climbs over 4-fold to Rs

69bn in FY21.

IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI falls to a 7-month low of 55.4 in March, down from 57.4 in September.

BSE says it raised Rs 18.56tn (US$ 253bn) worth of funds for the Indian corporate sector through the listing of equities, bonds, REITs, InvITs and commercial papers in FY21, up 53% in FY21.

IMF upgrades India’s 2021-22 growth

projection to 12.5% from 11.5% earlier.

Residential property sales up 44% in Jan-Mar

2021 across 8 cities: Knight Frank India.

SC says waive compound interest on all loan accounts that opted for moratorium during March-August 2020. Public-sector banks may take a Rs 18-20bn hit.

Govt announces Rs 145bn capital infusion in 4

PSBs – Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas

Bank, Bank of India and UCO.

Eight core industries' output falls at fastest

pace in 6-months, down 4.6% in Feb.

India approves Russian vaccine Sputnik V for

emergency use.

Govt may hike FDI in pension sector to 74%.

US Navy violates India's EEZ.

RBI says it has revised its inflation-forecasting model to better capture how fiscal and monetary policy interact with real-economy elements.

Citigroup says it will exit its retail banking business in India and 12 other countries.

SoftBank to invest US$ 450mn in Swiggy.

Maruti’s CNG car sales rise 47% yoy.

India is likely to report normal rainfall between June and September.

Dr Reddy’s will start supplying Sputnik V vaccines imported from Russia in May.

Amazon.com Inc. challenges a Delhi HC division bench order that allows Kishore Biyani’s Future Group to proceed with an asset sale to

Reliance Industries Ltd.

The 14th season of the Indian Premier League (IPL) kicks off.

PLI worth Rs 107bn for ACs, LEDs okayed.

RBI announces Rs 1tn bond-buying plan to keep a lid on long-term interest rates amid a massive government borrowing programme, even as it holds policy rates steady.

Tata pegs Shahporji Pallonji stake at over Rs

940bn.

BofA report says second wave of Covid-19 poses risk to economic recovery.

Byju’s pays Rs 70bn for ‘chalk and talk’ company Aakash Educational Services.

India to buy 36% less oil from Saudi Arabia in May.

RIL gets nod for hiving off O2C biz into separate unit.

INTERNATIONAL Joe Biden announces a multi-trillion-dollar

infrastructure investment plan.

New Zealand raises its minimum wage to $ 20 per hour.

HK court convicts nine activists of the opposition pro-democracy camp.

Bitcoin breaches $64,000. Coinbase

cryptocurrency exchange lists at c.US$ 100bn.

Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s 2012 founder,

becomes one of the richest people in the

world.

US central bank’s position is to remain patient

before raising rates. Fed sees risk from

infections, not inflation.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen proposes global minimum corporate tax rate. International Monetary Fund’s Gita Gopinath says IMF has long-favoured adoption of a global minimum tax on corporate profits.

Out of 7mn people vaccinated with J&J's single-dose, six women get blood clots. One dies.

President Biden announces that all US troops will exit Afghanistan by Sept 11, 2021.

Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility suffers blackout reportedly caused by an explosion.

Jordanian government accuse former Crown Prince Hamzah bin Hussein (King Abdullah II's half-brother) of conspiring to destabilize the kingdom; place him under house arrest. He later pledges allegiance to the king.

Dell plans spinoff of US$ 52bn stake in VMware.

France schools to close under third lockdown.

Microsoft Corp. to acquire speech-recognition firm Nuance Communications Inc. for US$ 16.7bn, one of a series of large deals it has struck of late.

China fines US$ 2.8bn on Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba for violating monopoly laws.

Pakistan deploys

paramilitary forces to

quell deadly Islamist

protests. French

embassy advises

citizens to leave

Pakistan.

China's Q1 economic growth up 18.3% as activity revives.

LG Electronics to shut down its smartphone business by July 31.

Russia expels Czech diplomats over explosion row.

All possible causes of the pandemic remain on the table, says the WHO, though lab leak least likely. Many powerful world leaders criticize the study (read China) for lack of access to data.

Source: Various media publications

Key indicators Sensex Falling

Gold Rising

Rupee Falling

Oil (Brent) Rising

10-year G-Sec Yield Falling

Retail inflation (Mar 2021, mom) Rising

India Producer Price Index Rising

Bank lending rate (Apr 2021) Steady

Loan growth (Mar 2021, mom) Falling

RBI balance sheet (Feb, mom) Falling

Current account deficit (Q4 2020) Rising

IIP (Feb 2021, yoy) Falling

Manuf. PMI (Mar 2021, mom) Falling

Services PMI (Feb 2021, mom) Falling

Forex reserves (9 Apr) Rising

Gold reserves (Q4 2020) Rising

Exports (Mar, mom) Rising

Imports (Mar, mom) Rising

Trade deficit (Mar, mom) Rising

Car production (Mar, mom) Rising

Car sales (Mar, mom) Rising

Aluminium price (30-day) Rising

Aluminium stock (30-day, LME) Falling

Copper price (30-day) Rising

Copper stock (30-day, LME) Rising

Zinc (30-day) Flat

Zinc stock (30-day, LME) Rising


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