road map to a sustainable future
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Road Map to a Sustainable Future. Dr. Kelly Kissock Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Dayton. Sustainability. What is “sustainability” and why is everybody talking about it? This presentation is about Something that is unsustainable Why it is important, and - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Road Map to a Sustainable Future
Dr. Kelly KissockDepartment of Mechanical and Aerospace EngineeringUniversity of Dayton
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Sustainability What is “sustainability” and why is
everybody talking about it? This presentation is about
• Something that is unsustainable• Why it is important, and • What we can do about it
Hint: it’s the central challenge for your generation and the next 100 years.
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What on Earth Are These?
World Energy Use
World Population
World Economic Output
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Converting Heat to Work
Since pre-history we knew how to:
Work Heat
Industrial Revolution to:
Work Heat
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Newcomen’s Steam Engine
~1712
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Revolutionary Change
Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%
Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%
Transforms family: parents leave home to work
Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad
Technology and population explode
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Economic Explosion From 1700-
2000, per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year
Increases 30x!
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Energy Revolution Creates Modern World
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Single Most Important Event in Human History
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We’ve Come a Long Way… Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5% Watt’s steam engine: 1% Gasoline engines: 30% Coal Rankine cycles: 35% Turbines: 40% Diesel engines: 50% Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines:
60%
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But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
2. Employ combustion to release heat CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal
expansion
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84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels
In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005
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Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973
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Actual U.S. Oil Production: Peaks in 1972
Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html U.S has 2% of world oil reserves.
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Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000
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Cambell’s 1998 Prediction: World Oil Will Peak in 2006
THE END OF CHEAP OIL, Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, Scientific American, March 1998
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Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2015 (if 1,800 BB)
“World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
BB
Hubbert Curve Actual
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Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2030 (if 2,600 BB)
“World Oil Resources’ 1994 brackets world reserves between 1,800 and 2,600 BB
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Kissock’s Prediction: World Oil Peaks in 2045 (if 3,600 BB)
If reserves = (2 x 1,800 BB) due to “fracing” and “directional drilling”
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Extreme Oil
“Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.”
Simon Dyer
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Canada’s Oil Sands
Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia #1 source of imported oil for US (22%) GHG production 5% - 15% greater than domestic oil Surface mining (20%):
• Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil• 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings• Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed• 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond
In situ mining (80%):• Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface• Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process
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Deep Water Drilling Gulf of Mexico
• 6,000 wells• Progressively deeper water • Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft
water• Gulf produces 27% of U.S.
output (U.S. has 2% of world oil resources)
Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/
Brazil’s Tupi Field:• 7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft
sandstone/rock salt• $1 million/day to operate
platform• Deep water rigs produce 6%
of world output
Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/
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World Natural Gas:Near Peak
Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
10^1
2 ft3
Hubbert Curve Actual
Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal,
IEA 2004
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World Coal: Peak Production 2050?
Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
10^6
tons
Hubbert Curve Actual
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Consequences of Peak Fuel
Rising demand and falling supply:• increases fuel prices• reduces expendable income• increases trade deficits of oil-importing
countries• supports oil-rich regimes (Russia, Middle East,
Venezuela)
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Environmental Perspective
“Using energy in today’s ways leads
to more environmental damage than
any other peaceful human activity.”
The Economist, 1990.
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99% 95% 95%
73% 70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
CO2 SO2 NOx VOC CO
95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels
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Global CO2 Concentration
• Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii• 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm
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Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic
Interference with Global Climate?”,
American Geophysical Union,
2005.
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Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric Molecules
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
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Historical Temperature/CO2 Correlation
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
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Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”
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Greenhouse Effect
John Tyndall 1860 Investigated if Earth’s atmosphere
acts as greenhouse N2 (80%): No O2 (19%): No CO2, H20, CH4 (<1%): Yes!
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Planet Temperatures Without Atmospheres
(NASA)
Mercury Earth Venus
-19 C
-89 C
167 C
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Planet Temperatures With Atmospheres
(NASA)
Mercury Earth Venus
-19 C
15 C
-89 C
167 C 167 C
464 C 96.5% CO2
<1% CO2
0% CO2
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Result: Earth Quickly Warming
Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research
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Warming Most Pronounced At Poles
“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989
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Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps
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Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding
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And the List Goes On…
Drought Severe weather Mass extinctions (30% of species lose
range) Accelerating non-linear irreversible
process• Methane release from thawing “perma-
frost”• Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…
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Local News: 2011
Source: Sierra 12/2007
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Cincinnati Days > 90 F 18 (Current) to 45 (Low Emissions) or 85 (High
Emissions)
Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009
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Midwest Spring Rainfall Increases 30% (High Emission)
Source: Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest: Ohio, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2009
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Debate?
Consensus view from:• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)• Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)• Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’
Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):• All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 –
2004 with key words “climate change”.• Found 983 papers• NONE disagreed with consensus position
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Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up
Fossil Fuel Resources
Economy
Energy Out
Atmosphere
Fossil Fuel
EnergyCO2 &
Pollution
Linear Model of Production
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TechnicalBiological
Ecological Model of Production
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Our Challenge: Sustainable Prosperity
Today
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How Much How Fast? C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E
Business as usual case 2000-2050• Pop increases by 1.5x• $/Pop increases by 4x• E/$ constant• C/E constant• C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C2000
Carbon stabilization case • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C2000• 3x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy
50% carbon reduction case • 6x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy
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Actual Progress? 2010 Carbon emissions increase 5.9%, largest annual
increase ever
C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E
C2010 = X1 Pop x X2 $/Pop x X3 E/$ x X4 C/E = 1.059 C2009
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US Carbon Stabilization Scenario
Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007
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California Story
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California Energy Efficiency = 1 Billion Cars
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US Energy Efficiency = 77% Demand for New Energy Services
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US Energy Efficiency• National Lighting and Appliance Efficiency Standards
• Initially signed by President Reagan in 1987, updated many times since
• "Standards have been a bipartisan energy policy success story stretching across four decades and five presidencies.“
• “Existing standards reduced U.S. electricity use by 7 percent in 2010 and 14 percent by 2035 as consumers and businesses purchase new products compliant with the latest standards”
• “Updated standards by 2015 would reduce 2035 electricity use by another 7 percent.
• “A typical household's total electric bill over this period would be about 33% higher absent efficiency standards.”
• “The cost of more efficient products pays back in lower utility bills within about 3 years, with net benefits outweighing costs by 4 to 1.”
Source: “The Efficiency Boom: Cashing In on Savings from Appliance Standards” ACEEE 2012
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US Energy Efficiency• Building Codes
• Residential Codes typically based on International Residential Code: 2000, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012…"
• Commercial codes typically based on:• ASHRAE Standard 90.1: 1975, …, 2001, 2004, 2007,
2010…” or• International Energy Conservation Code: 2000, 2001,
2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012…“• IECC 2012 results in 30% more energy savings in both residential
and commercial buildings than IECC 2006. This meets goal set forth by U.S. DOE
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IECC 2012• IECC 2012 results in 30% more energy savings in both residential and
commercial buildings than IECC 2006. This meets goal set forth by U.S. DOE.
• Residential Changes• •A mandatory air infiltration test• •A mandatory duct leakage test• •Increased insulation and glazing efficiency• •Reduce wasting heated water: "short and skinny," and insulated pipes
• Commercial Changes• •Choose between high performance lighting, HVAC equipment, or onsite renewable
energy• •Requiring continuous air barriers for the building envelope• •A commissioning requirement for HVAC systems• •Increased insulation and glazing efficiency• •Mandated daylighting controls when window-to-wall ratio > 30%• •Mandating skylights/daylighting controls for certain buildings > 10,000 ft2 i• •Added efficiency requirements for cooling towers• •Increased minimum efficiency requirements for certain HVAC equipment• •Increased HVAC piping insulation provisions
Source: http://www.energycodes.gov/status/2012_Final.stm
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Energy Efficiency: Lowest Cost Source of “New Power”
Source: A Risky Proposition, Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011
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Reduce CO2 by 20% at Negative Cost
(i.e. while making money)
Source: Reducing U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How Much at What Cost?”, McKinsey and Company, December 2007
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Net-zero CO2 Manufacturing Emissions
at Zero Additional Cost Base CO2 Emissions
• 5,600 t/yr Energy Efficiency
• Reduces CO2 by 960 t/yr (17%)• Saves $78,000 /yr with 48%
ROI Purchasing renewable elec
with efficiency savings• Reduces CO2 by 4,800 t/yr
(83%)• RECs cost $0.015 /kWh
Result• Net-zero CO2 emissions• At zero additional cost
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Energy Efficient Manufacturing Initiatives
President Obama launches $500M Advanced Manufacturing Partnership, including $120 million to develop innovative manufacturing processes and materials to enable companies to cut the costs of manufacturing by using less energy.
DOE launches Superior Energy Performance (SEP), a plant-level energy efficiency certification program for industrial facilities.
DOE’s Industrial Assessment Centers provide no-cost energy audits to mid-sized manufactures.
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Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives
American Institute of Architects Sustainability 2030• 50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010• Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by
2030.• Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction
American Society of Heating Refrigeration Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) • Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-
2004• Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site
energy use U.S. Department of Energy
• All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025
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Energy Efficient Transportation Initiatives
Number of cars hits 1 billion
10 automakers launch plug-in hybrids by 2012
U.S. automakers agree to double fuel efficiency by 2025 to 54.5 mpg.
EPA announces first fuel efficiency standards for trucks and busses
Source: www.greenzer.com
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State Renewable Electricity Standards
29 States and District of Columbia
MandatoryVoluntary
Source: Securing the Transition to a Clean and Sustainable Energy Economy, Deyette, J., Union
Concerned Scientists, 2011
Ohio: 12.5% of electricity from
renewable energy by
2025
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Wind Energy In the U.S. Renewable energy
production surpasses nuclear in U.S.
Colorado generates 30% of elec from wind and solar: and has 14,000 renewable energy jobs
Iowa generates 20% of elec from wind
Wind energy provides more jobs than coal
Clean energy jobs pay 13% more than medium U.S. wages, and offer more secure future
North Dakota is “Saudi Arabia” of wind
Atlantic off-shore wind potential is 70% of all U.S. elec:
Google investing in undersea power cable for off-shore wind turbines
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Wind Energy In the U.S. U.S. now 46,919 MW and
growing at > 30% /yr.
Wind responsible for 35% of all new generating capacity over the past 4 years, second only to natural gas, and more than nuclear and coal combined.
Today, U.S. wind power capacity represents more than 20% of the world's installed wind power.
Over 400 manufacturing facilities across the U.S. make components for wind turbines
Source: American Wind Energy Association
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Wind Energy In Ohio Ohio kills proposed 960
MW Meigs coal plant
Builds 170 2-MW wind turbines on Ohio-Indiana border near Van Wert
State approves 91 2-MW turbines in north-central Ohio, to be operating by December 2012 and create 70-95 construction jobs and 10 permanent jobs.
Ninth wind farm certified. Combined certified total 662 turbines to generate 1,251 megawatts of electricity.
Van Wert, OH
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Wind Turbine Evolution:Bigger and Taller (now 3 MW
each)
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Design Advancements Lead to “Enormous Increase in Capacity
Factors”
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Levelized Cost of Wind Energy Without PTC/MACRS
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Levelized Cost of Wind Energy With PTC/MACRS
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Growing Amounts of Wind Curtailment
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Britain Has More Offshore Wind Capacity Than Rest Of World
Combined
World's largest offshore wind farm on the estuary of the Thames River 100 wind turbines, 300 megawatts, with 341 more turbines installed over the
next four years. Each turbine as tall as a 40-story building, "farm" covers 22 square miles. Britain now has more offshore wind capacity than the rest of the world
combined. Britain gets 3% of elec from renewables but aims to get 15% by 2020.
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Solar Pricing
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Recent Ohio NewsWest Chester Ikea plugs in solar panels
Business First Date: Wednesday, January 25, 2012, 7:36am EST
A Cincinnati-area Ikea store will use a 128,000-square-foot array of solar panels installed on its roof to light the store's lamps, the Cincinnati Business Courier reports.
The 344,000-square-foot West Chester store is Ikea's 14th in the U.S. to be outfitted with solar panels, and 23 other locations are getting them as well, the newspaper reports. In West Chester, the array has a 1,026-kilowatt system made with 4,186 individual panels, the newspaper reports.
The 1.3 million kilowatt hours of electricity that the panels are expected to generate each year is the equivalent of reducing 1,014 tons of carbon dioxide, or taking 180 cars off the road, the newspaper reports.
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Ohio’s Clean Energy Economy Coal or Solar?
• Coal Production: WY #1, OH #11 at 5.6% of WY prod • CO2 emissions: OH #4• Ohio exports >$1B per year on coal purchases
• Solar Energy: AZ #1, OH #? At 71% of AZ solar Jobs
• Ohio #4 in clean energy jobs at 35,267 (2007)• Job growth 1998-2007: overall = -2.2%, clean energy
= 7.3%• Jobs per $1M: fossil fuels = 5.3, clean energy = 16.7• Sources: www.pewcenteronthestates.org,
www.nrdc.org
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Mountaintop Removal Coal Mining
Pulverize mountaintop with explosives and push it into neighboring valley to expose coal.
In WV, 2000 miles of valleys filled in.
By end of decade 1.4 M acres.
Cancer rates in close towns 2x more distant towns.
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University Initiatives: UD’s Renewable and Clean Energy Program Energy Efficiency
• Energy Efficient Buildings• Energy Efficient Manufacturing• Design of Thermal Systems• Building Energy Informatics
Renewable Energy• Renewable Energy Systems• Solar Energy Engineering• Wind Energy Engineering• Geothermal Energy Systems• Biofuel Engineering• Advanced Photovoltaics
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“Our Choice”
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Extra Slides
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Beyond Coal and Nuclear: Not just eliminating something bad, but making room for something good
U.S.: 500 outdated and inefficient coal plants will be phased-out
Canada: phase out dirty coal plants beginning in 2014 Pacific Northwest: coal free by 2025 Renewable Energy Price of PV panels drops 70% between 2009-2012 Iowa gets 20% of electricity from wind Colorado gets 30% of electricity from wind and solar Clean Energy Economy Wind energy has more jobs than in coal Clean energy jobs pay 13% more than medium U.S. wages,
and offer more secure future Many jobs in manufacturing sector, hard hit by recession
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But We Must Move Even Faster…
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OECD / Non-OECD Contributions
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006
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Global Temperature Rise Current temp is 0.8 C
above 1750 temp Goal to limit temp
rise to 2.0 C On track for temp
rise of 6 C rise by end of century
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Time Lags Amplify Effects
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001
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Manufacturing Efficiency??
1 kg paper requires 100 kg of resources 1 liter OJ requires 1,000 liters of water 1 semiconductor chip generates 100,000
times its mass in waste US industry mines, burns, pumps,
disposes of 4 M lb of material per family per year
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Cost of Electricity Resources
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
EnergyEfficiency
PulverizedCoal
Coal IGCC Nuclear Nat. GasCombined
Cycle
Biomass Wind
Leve
lized
Cos
t of E
lect
ricity
(cen
ts/k
Wh)
w/o carbon w/ $20/ton carbon
Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.
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U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost
Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March
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Remarkably Energy Efficiency
• Increases business competitiveness• Increase resource availability• Increases environmental health
Energy Efficiency isTHE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT
ECONOMY
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Government Programs U.S. Department of Energy
• Energy audits Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized
manufacturers Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump
energy audits for large manufactures• Energy system software and best practice case
studies U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• E3 energy, waste and productivity audits Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency
by 20% by 2020• DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient
equipment and retrofits.
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International Standards
ISO Standards• 9001 Quality• 14001 Environment• 50001 Energy
Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.
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Cost of Energy Efficiency
“25% of total electricity usage can be saved cost effectively, at an average of 3 cents or less per kWh.”
“New generation sources cost 5 cents or more per kWh, making efficiency the lowest cost electricity resource”
Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
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Cost of Energy Efficiency
"Energy efficiency is … the cheapest and most efficient way to reduce emissions by the United States”
“Policymakers worldwide should make efficiency central to their efforts to reduce the emission and harmful impact of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”
Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science, 1/2010
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How it Started 1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear
plant to bridge gap between expected demand and supply
Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy efficiency standards on household refrigerators will save more energy than nuclear plant will generate.
California embarks on energy-efficiency path
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California Today
Per capita energy use fourth lowest Emits half CO2 per $ as rest of U.S. Generates most renewable
electricity Most patents and most capital
invested in “cleantech” companies
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Denmark Story 1973
99% of energy imported 80% of economy is agricultural
2009 Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job
economy Control world wind turbine market 17% of energy from renewable energy Net energy exporter Meet Kyoto CO2 standards 3.7% unemployment Trade and fiscal surplus
Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009
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United Kingdom Story• Implemented
Regulatory framework Incentives and penalties 7 fold increase in renewable energy
• “Want to be first movers..”• “Market is colossal”
Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by 2020.
• “Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy economy”
• “Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.”
• “Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise”
Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy,
10/2009
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The US Story?
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EEB Course GoalsLearn how to design buildings that are:
• Functional (traditional engineering course)• Economic (better engineering course)• Improve comfort / productivity
(enlightened engineering course)• E/3 (our course)
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ASPO Prediction: World Oil Will Peak in 2007
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Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart”
Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.
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Transition to Sustainability Is Central Challenge of 21st Century
Pre-industrial revolution
Industrial revolution
21st century
TimeToday
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Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives
American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability 2030• 50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010• Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.• Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction
U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification:• 50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED • 65% Silver• 80% Gold• 100% Platinum
ASHRAE • Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004• Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use
U.S. Department of Energy• All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025
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US Carbon Stabilization Scenario
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006