roads to nowhere - bettertransport.org.uk · a120 a131 a414 a130 a131 a141 a142 a10 1 1 a1065 a508...

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Alde Yare R Yare R Bure Ribble R Ouse R Aire R Esk Tees R Lune R Derwent R R Annan R Teviot R Tweed R Fal R Allen R Dart Trent Conwy R R N orth Tyne R S o u t h Tyne Wear Cree R R Dee R Esk R T a mar R Taw R Torridge R Avo n R Test R Arun R Wye R Thames R Dee R W elland R Earn R Garry R Tay R Lyon R Teith R Spean River Dee R Moriston R Glass R B e a uly R Farrar Spey River River R R Nairn R Oykel R Derwent R Exe or Isis R Medway Great Stour R Nene R W ye/ AGwy R Taff Afon Witham R Ullswater Wast Water Kielder Water Loch Tay Loch Awe Loch Shin Loch Ericht L Earn Loch Mullardoch Loch Loch Quoich Loch Maree Fionn Loch Loch Fannich Loch Monar Loch Morar Lo Langa Rannoch W i n d e r m e re Loch Eil Arkaig R Eden Loch Katrine Loch Leven Loch Tay Don R W ensum R G r e a t Ouse Loch Lochy Loch Shiel Loch Carron Black R Carron R Shin L Broom R B l a c k w ater R R W a v ene y R R R Loch Ken Clatteringshaws Loch Loch Doon R Spey R Tummel R Forth Clyde R R Nith R Camel Wt R Tyne Lo c h Sunart Loch Treig Loch Leven L Lyon L Avich Loch Cluanie Loch Sìophort R F r o me Dyfi Afon Llyn Celyn Llyn Tegid R Coniston Water R L ea DARTMOOR EXMOOR Mendip Hills Quantock Hills Cranborne Chase & North Wessex Downs The Cotswolds Malvern Hills Wye Valley Shropshire Hills Gower BRECON BEACONS SNOWDONIA Clwydian Range Lleyn Anglesey PEAK DISTRICT NEW FOREST High Weald The Chilterns Dedham Suffolk Coast and Heaths THE BROADS Norfolk Coast Kent Downs Northumberland Coast NORTHUMBERLAND Solway Coast LAKE DISTRICT Forest of Bowland YORKSHIRE DALES North Pennines NORTH YORK MOORS Howardian Hills Scarba, Lunga & The Garvellachs Kyles of Bute North Arran Jura Knapdale Upper Tweeddale Eildon & Leaderfoot GALLOWAY Nith Estuary Fleet Valley South Lewis,Harris & North Uist South Uist Machair Assynt- Coigach Dornoch Firth Wester Ross Trotternish Kintail Glen Affric Knoydart Cuillin Hills The Small Isles Morar,Moidart & Ardnamurchan Loch na Keal Lynn of Lorn Ben Nevis & Glen Coe Loch Rannoch & Glen Lyon Loch Tummel R Tay R Earn (Comrie to St Fillans) Lincolnshire Wolds Tamar Nidderdale TAY LOCH LOMOND & THE TROSSACHS Bodmin Moor Vale Dorset Loch Shiel Blackdown Hills East Devon North Devon Cornwall Cornwall South Devon Cornwall Cornwall CAIRNGORMS National Forest Cannock Chase Surrey Hills SOUTH DOWNS West Wiltshire Downs Penzance Helston Falmouth Redruth Newquay Truro Bodmin St Austell Wadebridge Liskeard Tavistock Exmouth Dover Lewes Newhaven East Grinstead Petersfield Ringwood Dorchester Blandford Forum Honiton Okehampton Bideford Barnstaple Bude Launceston Port Talbot Glastonbury Frome Shepton Mallet Warminster Trowbridge Chippenham Marlborough Andover Farnham Beaconsfield Maidenhead Dorking Reigate Sevenoaks Tilbury Sheerness Canterbury Harwich Sudbury Harlow Hertford Hatfield Bishop’s Stortford Amersham Cirencester Stroud Stow-on- the-Wold Stratford- upon-Avon Evesham Ross-on-Wye Abergavenny Monmouth Merthyr Tydfil Builth Wells Brecon Llandovery Llandeilo Neath Llanelli Carmarthen Cardigan St Clears Tenby Aberystwyth Machynlleth Rhayader Llandrindod Wells Llangurig Newtown Welshpool Leominster Bromsgrove Kidderminster Bridgnorth Cannock Lichfield Hinckley Market Harborough Melton Mowbray Kettering Wellingborough Oakham Stamford Huntingdon Ely Newmarket Downham Market March Wisbech Thetford Diss Swaffham Great Yarmouth Beccles Cromer Skegness Spalding Boston Sleaford Newark- on-Trent Ashbourne Matlock Burton upon Trent Rugeley Uttoxeter Stone Leek Buxton Congleton Macclesfield Whitchurch Nantwich Northwich Wrexham Mold Queensferry Ruthin Llangollen Oswestry Y Bala Dolgellau Betws- y-Coed Porthmadog Caernarfon Bangor Holyhead Conwy Llandudno Skelmers- dale Bury Worksop Selby Goole Gainsborough Immingham Bridlington Scarborough Wetherby Ripon Thirsk Skipton Keighley Clitheroe Lancaster Fleetwood Heysham Morecambe Kendal Keswick Penrith Windermere Brough Consett Scotch Corner Hexham Corbridge Morpeth Alnwick Hawick Stranraer Jedburgh Berwick-upon-Tweed Crianlarich Oban Mallaig Fort William/ An Gearasdan Forfar Newtonmore Kyle of Lochalsh/ Caol Loch Aillse Ullapool Fraserburgh Corby Ashington Chichester Galashiels Dewsbury Wakefield Uckfield Royal Tunbridge Wells Bishop Auckland Brownhills Warwick Bracknell Staines Esher Runcorn Pontefract Uig Peebles St Andrews Arbroath Montrose Folkestone Bury St Edmunds King’s Lynn Lowestoft Grantham Blackpool Peterhead Durham Rotherham Glenrothes Dunfermline Falkirk Alloa Cumbernauld Dumbarton Airdrie Hamilton Motherwell Peterlee Maghull St Helens Rugby Eastleigh Christchurch Newport Ryde Littlehampton Tonbridge Woking Farnborough Brentwood Ilford Barnet Finchley Harrow Gravesend Chatham Cleethorpes Herne Bay Whitstable Wigston Bognor Regis Penarth Gosport Billericay Aldershot Dartford Rayleigh Washington Bentley Havant Horndean Broadstairs Rochester Livingston Cleveleys Crewe Rosyth Inverness/ Inbhir Nis Aberdeen Kirkcaldy EDINBURGH Stirling Greenock Glasgow Paisley East Kilbride Irvine Kilmarnock Ayr Tynemouth South Shields Sunderland Newcastle upon Tyne Gateshead Carlisle Dumfries Workington Whitehaven Darlington Stockton- on-Tees Hartlepool Middlesbrough Kingston upon Hull Leeds York Harrogate Bradford Burnley Halifax Blackburn Preston Southport Birkenhead Liverpool Wallasey Bootle Warrington Wigan Rochdale Oldham Bolton Stockport Huddersfield Sheffield MANCHESTER Ashton-under-Lyne Barnsley Doncaster Scunthorpe Grimsby Lincoln Norwich Nottingham Derby Loughborough Leicester Stoke-on -Trent Newcastle- under-Lyme Telford Wolverhampton BIRMINGHAM Walsall Dudley Stourbridge Redditch Worcester Coventry Nuneaton Royal Leamington Spa Northampton Bedford Peterborough Cambridge Clacton-on-Sea Colchester Southend-on-Sea Chelmsford Felixstowe Basildon Dagenham LONDON Stevenage Luton Milton Keynes St Albans Hemel Hempstead High Wycombe Dunstable Watford Slough Aylesbury Oxford Banbury Swindon Gloucester Cheltenham Cwmbran Newport Swansea Bridgwater CARDIFF Bristol Bath Avonmouth Weston-super-Mare Salisbury Basingstoke Reading Winchester Guildford Crawley Richmond Sutton Croydon Orpington Maidstone Margate Ramsgate Eastbourne Brighton Portsmouth Southampton Fareham Worthing Poole Bournemouth Weymouth Taunton Yeovil Torquay Exeter Plymouth Paignton Ipswich Tamworth Stafford Shrewsbury Dundee Perth Chester Widnes Newbury Hastings Chesterfield Hereford Barrow- in-Furness Ashford Horsham Mansfield Elgin DORSET HAMPSHIRE WEST SUSSEX EAST SUSSEX SURREY OXFORDSHIRE BUCKING- HAMSHIRE HERTFORDSHIRE ESSEX NORTHAMPTON- SHIRE CAMBRIDGESHIRE SUFFOLK NORFOLK LEICESTERSHIRE LINCOLNSHIRE NOTTINGHAM- SHIRE STAFFORDSHIRE DERBYSHIRE WARWICKSHIRE GLOUCESTERSHIRE KENT DEVON ISLES OF SCILLY CUMBRIA NORTH YORKSHIRE LANCASHIRE WORCESTERSHIRE SOMERSET ‘Road Investment Strategy’ Alongside the Autumn Statement on 3 December, the Government will publish its first Road Investment Strategy - a workplan for the Highways Agency as it is turned into a government-owned company. New road projects are being investigated all over the country for these plans. Route Strategies Since 2013, the Highways Agency has been reviewing all its roads via 18 Route (or ‘Route-Based’) Strategies. Feasibility Studies The Department for Transport is also carrying out six major ‘Feasibility Studies’ looking at these cross-country routes: A303 to the west of England A1 north of Newcastle A1 west of Newcastle A47 across Norfolk A27 on the south coast Across the Pennines from Manchester to Sheffield The Highways Agency’s budget for new roads will more than double between 2015 and 2020: Broken traffic forecasts Current road policies depend heavily on predictions of future traffic growth, but there is strong evidence that the Department for Transport’s traffic forecasts have overestimated demand since the 1980s, particularly for long-term predictions.The 1989 forecasts predicted growth from 1996 to 2012 of 37%. What actually materialised was just 13% UK statistics for 2013 show that total car traffic is now the same as in 2003 and the annual distance driven per person was 13% higher in 1995 than in 2013. Roads to nowhere Five things to ask your parliamentary candidates: Do you agree that new roads create new traffic, and just fill up in the long term? Will you help invest more in road maintenance to tackle the huge backlog of potholes, rather than building new roads? Do you support a £3 billion green retrofit programme to reduce the community severance and environmental impact of main roads? Do you support spending at least £10 per person per year on investment in cycling? Will you help take urgent action to reduce air pollution in our towns and cities? General Election 2015 2002 2020 2012 2015 £649m £1.0bn £3.8bn £1.5bn £1.9bn Highways Agency budget ACTUAL TRAFFIC GB ACTUAL TRAFFIC ENGLAND 1989 GB FORECAST (HIGH) 1989 GB FORECAST (LOW) 1997 GB FORECAST (HIGH) 1997 GB FORECAST (LOW) 2008 ENGLAND FORECAST 2009 ENGLAND FORECAST 2011 ENGLAND FORECAST 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2003 = 100 Government forecasts vs actual road traffic Chart first published in 'Due Diligence, Traffic Forecasts, and the Pension Infrastructure Programme' by Phil Goodwin, Local Transport Today, 13.4.2012 Source data calculated by Mitchell, Stokes, Goodwin, IAM Motoring Facts, from DfT original sources.

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NORTH YORK MOORS

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Cornwall

Cornwall

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Ashington

Chichester

Galashiels

Dewsbury

Wakefield

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Bishop Auckland

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Warwick

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Peebles

St Andrews

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Folkestone

BurySt Edmunds

King’s Lynn

Lowestoft

Grantham

Blackpool

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Durham

Rotherham

Glenrothes

Dunfermline

Falkirk

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Cumbernauld

Dumbarton

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Motherwell

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Woking

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Inverness/Inbhir Nis

Aberdeen

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EDINBURGH

Stirling

Greenock

GlasgowPaisley

EastKilbride

IrvineKilmarnock

Ayr

Tynemouth

South Shields

Sunderland

Newcastleupon Tyne

GatesheadCarlisle

Dumfries

Workington

Whitehaven Darlington

Stockton-on-Tees

Hartlepool

Middlesbrough

Kingstonupon Hull

Leeds

YorkHarrogate

BradfordBurnley

HalifaxBlackburn

Preston

Southport

Birkenhead

LiverpoolWallasey

Bootle

Warrington

Wigan

Rochdale

Oldham

Bolton

Stockport

Huddersfield

Sheffield

MANCHESTERAshton-under-Lyne

Barnsley

Doncaster

ScunthorpeGrimsby

Lincoln

Norwich

Nottingham

Derby

Loughborough

Leicester

Stoke-on-TrentNewcastle-

under-Lyme

Telford

Wolverhampton

BIRMINGHAM

Walsall

Dudley

Stourbridge

RedditchWorcester

Coventry

Nuneaton

RoyalLeamingtonSpa

NorthamptonBedford

Peterborough

Cambridge

Clacton-on-Sea

Colchester

Southend-on-Sea

Chelmsford

Felixstowe

BasildonDagenhamLONDON

StevenageLuton

MiltonKeynes

St AlbansHemelHempstead

HighWycombe

Dunstable

Watford

Slough

AylesburyOxford

Banbury

Swindon

Gloucester

Cheltenham

Cwmbran

Newport

Swansea

Bridgwater

CARDIFFBristol

Bath

Avonmouth

Weston-super-Mare

Salisbury

Basingstoke

Reading

Winchester

Guildford

Crawley

Richmond

SuttonCroydon

Orpington

Maidstone

Margate

Ramsgate

EastbourneBrighton

Portsmouth

Southampton

FarehamWorthing

Poole

Bournemouth

Weymouth

Taunton

Yeovil

Torquay

Exeter

Plymouth Paignton

Ipswich

Tamworth

Stafford

Shrewsbury

Dundee

Perth

Chester

Widnes

Newbury

Hastings

Chesterfield

Hereford

Barrow-in-Furness

Ashford

Horsham

Mansfield

Elgin

DORSET

HAMPSHIRE

WEST SUSSEXEAST SUSSEX

SURREY

OXFORDSHIRE

BUCKING-HAMSHIRE

HERTFORDSHIRE

ESSEX

NORTHAMPTON-SHIRE

CAMBRIDGESHIRE

SUFFOLK

NORFOLK

LEICESTERSHIRE

LINCOLNSHIRENOTTINGHAM-SHIRE

STAFFORDSHIRE

DERBYSHIRE

WARWICKSHIRE

GLOUCESTERSHIRE

KENT

DEVON

ISLESOF

SCILLY

CUMBRIA

NORTH YORKSHIRE

LANCASHIRE

WORCESTERSHIRE

SOMERSET

‘Road Investment Strategy’

Alongside the Autumn Statement on 3 December, the Government will publish its first Road Investment Strategy - a workplan for the Highways Agency as it is turned into a government-owned company. New road projects are being investigated all over the country for these plans.

Route StrategiesSince 2013, the Highways Agency has been reviewing all its roads via 18 Route (or ‘Route-Based’) Strategies.

Feasibility StudiesThe Department for Transport is also carrying out six major ‘Feasibility Studies’ looking at these cross-country routes:A303 to the west of EnglandA1 north of NewcastleA1 west of NewcastleA47 across NorfolkA27 on the south coastAcross the Pennines from Manchester to Sheffield

The Highways Agency’s budget for new roads will more than double between 2015 and 2020:

Broken trafficforecasts

Current road policies depend heavily on predictions of future traffic growth, but there is strong evidence that the Department for Transport’s traffic forecasts have overestimated demand since the 1980s, particularly for long-term predictions.The 1989 forecasts predicted growth from 1996 to 2012 of 37%. What actually materialised was just 13%

UK statistics for 2013 show that total car traffic is now the same as in 2003 and the annual distance driven per person was 13% higher in 1995 than in 2013.

Roads to nowhere

Five things to ask your parliamentary candidates:

● Do you agree that new roads create new traffic, and just fill up in the long term?

● Will you help invest more in road maintenance to tackle the huge backlog of potholes, rather than building new roads?

● Do you support a £3 billion green retrofit programme to reduce the community severance and environmental impact of main roads?

● Do you support spending at least £10 per person per year on investment in cycling?

● Will you help take urgent action to reduce air pollution in our towns and cities?

General Election 2015

2002 20202012 2015

£649m £1.0bn

£3.8bn

£1.5bn

£1.9bn

Highways Agency budget

ACTUAL TRAFFIC GB

ACTUAL TRAFFIC ENGLAND

1989 GB FORECAST (HIGH)

1989 GB FORECAST (LOW)

1997 GB FORECAST (HIGH)

1997 GB FORECAST (LOW)

2008 ENGLAND FORECAST

2009 ENGLAND FORECAST

2011 ENGLAND FORECAST

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

2003 = 100

Government forecasts vs actual road traffic

Chart first published in 'Due Diligence, Traffic Forecasts, and the Pension Infrastructure Programme' by Phil Goodwin, Local Transport Today, 13.4.2012Source data calculated by Mitchell, Stokes, Goodwin, IAM Motoring Facts, from DfT original sources.