robèrt, m. (2009). international journal of sustainable transportation vol. 3, no. 1
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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1. What is CERO?. Developed for an energy sector with large complexity: a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1
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What is CERO?• Developed for an energy sector with large complexity:
a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players
b) need for tailor-made cost-benefit assessments of alternative travel policies
c) Applicable for benchmarking to spread good examples
• Engages a broad range of experts and researchers:– Statisticians– Economists– Behaviourists– Travel managers– Technical implementers
• Developed in a doctoral thesis at KTH: ”Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies”
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Developed with empirical support from large organizations
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Macro economic effects from 10% traffic reductions in Stockholm county
(Robèrt och Jonsson, 2006)
-750 MSEK accident costs -360 MSEK emission costs -570 MSEK in vehicle time costs
( = 1,68 Billion SEK/year)
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Large organizations are important actors
Decision-makers Individuals
• Can facilitate market-oriented traffic planning
• Can utilize positive ”group mentality”
• Motivated to spread good examples
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Why climate targets and travel strategies?
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Travel costs and emissions walk hand i hand- Short-term cost cut potential: 200 000-500 000 Euro/1000 employees and year
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- “Indirect values” of showing best practiceIT-sector, energy sector, transport sector, public authorities…
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- Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)
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CERO is based on backcasting
Travel policiesMapping Target
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Why backcasting?
• If we know the target, why not use it?
• Avoid “path-dependency”, focusing on current obstacles and constraints
• We might well approach a paradigmatic shift where traditional forecasting is insufficient
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Target description
“X% CO2 reductions in consistency with travel cost reductions and employee acceptance”
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Mapping
CO2-emissions/year (tons)
3600
3000 A. Work commute car
2700 B. Work commute public transport
2400 C. Park-and-ride (car+public transport)
2100 D. Business trips car
1800 E. Business trips aviation
1500 A F. Business trips train
1200 E Sum of all travel activities A-F, at the company
900
600 D
300 B
C F
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Travel costs (million SEK)
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Benchmarking
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Internal benchmarking (LFV)
Ton/pers
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 Kr/pers
ArlandaLandvetter
Sturup
Norrköping
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Problem with climate targets:
% - reductions are appropriate for emission audits but hard to follow-up in policy terms
%CO2
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Designing target-oriented travel policies
%CO2
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Transforming the backcasting target
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Why transforming the emission target?
• Facilitates efficiency rankings, cost-benefit analyses and follow-ups between alternative policies
• Reduces the level of “fuzziness” regarding potential emission impacts
• Helps strategic planning by keeping track on factors that might change over time (u1, u2, N, s, Y…)
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Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions (commute trips)
• 31 car commuters switch to public transport
• Train tickets to 4 commuters with longest commute distance
• Encourage 38 car commuters to renewable fuel cars
• Allow telecommuting at least once a month
• Offer eco-driving to at least ¼ of staff
• Encourage at least 191 car commuters with commute distance 0,5-6km to cycle
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• Replace 7% of business trips by car to public transport Annual cost reduction 1,1 Mkr
• Replace 4% of business trips by car to virtual meetings Annual cost reduction 2,3 Mkr
• Replace all business trips with private car to car sharingCosts unchanged
• Replace 2% of aviation trips abroad to virtual meetings Cost reduction 540.000 kr
• Replace 3% av domestic aviation to trainCost reduction 215.000 kr
Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions (business trips)
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A policy package targeting 40% CO2-reductions…
Policy business trips Substitution rate to alternative
CO2 reduction Potential cost reduction (million SEK)
Car to public transport 19% 2,5% 1,0Car to car-sharing (bio-fuelled) 24% 2,5% 0,6
Car to video-conference 34% 5,0% 5,7Aviation to videoconference 33% 5,0% 3,5Work commute trips Number of car commuters
switching mode
Private car to Public transport 87 5,0% -Private car to Telework 76 5,0% -long-distance commute to railway 35 5,0% -Petrol car to bio-fuelled car 212 10,0% -Total 40% 10,8
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Labour productivity effects
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MP 2211
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Climate compensation as a last step…
+ Could increase profitability from emission reductions
- Could pacify good local initiatives and ideas
Energianvändning
År 2008 År 2010 År 2015 År 2020 Resbeteende
Renewable energy useClimate compensations
Energy use
Year
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The CERO process
Target and investment plan
Data-collection and analysis
Policy Implementation
Follow up
3 v 6 - 8 v 12 months 1 – 3 years
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To sum up:
- Make climate travel targets tangible - Identify economically optimized strategies
- Emphasize employee benefits
- Apply benchmarking to spread ”best practice”