Robert ScollayNew Zealand APEC Study Centre

University of Auckland

Evolving Trade and Economic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region:

Visions, Reality, Gaps, Layers

Visions

Trans-Pacific

East Asia-Centric

Trans-Pacific Vision

Catalyst: end of Cold War and creation of APEC

Accelerant: East Asia-North America economic interdependence

VehiclesAPEC

encountered limitations of “concerted unilateral” approach to trade liberalisation

FTAAPAPEC-wide FTA

TPP ‘stepping stone’ to FTAAP?

East Asia-Centric Vision

Catalyst: East Asian economic crisis 1997-98Spur to “East Asian regionalism”

Accelerant: expansion of East Asian production networks

VehiclesASEAN Plus Three

(China, Japan, Korea [CJK] and ASEAN) EAFTA (East Asian FTA) monetary and financial initiatives

‘Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)

ASEAN Plus Six/East Asian Summit

(including Australia, New Zealand, India) CEPEA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia) key vehicle for New Zealand engagement with East Asia

Today’s Reality“Noodle Bowl”:Over 30 bilateral FTAs

Multiple impulses (no single “vision”)Intra-East AsiaTrans-PacificEast Asia-Australasia

PlurilateralNAFTA, AFTA, P4

“ASEAN Plus FTAs”“ASEAN Plus One”: ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan,

ASEAN-KoreaAANZFTA (ASEAN-Australia and NZ FTA)

Gaps – East Asia

ASEAN has completed links with all prospective EAFTA and CEPEA partners

But CJK link is missing from both EAFTA and CEPEAcan this link be completed? how? CJK FTA? implications for East Asian leadership

CJK-ANZ link missing from CEPEA (except China-NZ)FTAs under negotiation: Australia-China, Australia-Japan, Australia-

Korea, NZ-Koreaunder discussion: NZ-Japan

India-CJK and India-ANZ links missingIndia-NZ FTA negotiations about to start

Taiwan and Hong Kongmajor players in East Asian trade

Gaps – Trans-Pacific

TPP currently a “stepping stone”

Questions for moving beyond “stepping stone” statusparticipation by Japan? Korea? China?ASEAN “buy-in”?

beyond Singapore, Brunei, Viet Nam

CJK link becomes a question mark here as wellcomplicated by concerns over relative positions vis-à-vis

USAcould expanded TPP balance emerging G2?

Layers

Layers of regional economic integration:

Community-buildingagendas in APEC, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6, ASEAN

Monetary and financial integrationpursued mainly within ASEAN+3 at present

Common marketsASEAN Economic Community, ANZ Single Economic Market

Tradegains from trade: FTAAP > CEPEA > EAFTA

(also as steps towards multilateralism)political economy: ?“decoupling” v. Trans-Pacific interdependence

Does Layering Provide a Basis for Coexistence of the Two Visions?

East Asian and Trans-Pacific visions pursued within different layers of integration?

Provide for both East Asian identity and trans-Pacific interdependence?