robert wilby professor of hydroclimatic modelling loughborough university ethics working group...
TRANSCRIPT
Robert WilbyProfessor of Hydroclimatic Modelling
Loughborough University
Ethics Working GroupBurleigh Court, Loughborough University, 12-13 June 2014
Who am I?
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
A bloke with poor taste in T-shirts
• Geographer (who can count)
• PhD Climate Change and the Recovery of Acidified Catchments (1991)
• 10 different jobs in last 25 years
• Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling at Loughborough University, UK (2008-)
• Pragmatic about use of climate science to achieve positive outcomes for human development and freshwater environments
• Thrives on in-country research and capacity support
Research into uncertainty (hydrology)
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
A proto quantification of uncertainty elements
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CGCM2 CSIRO ECHAM4 HADCM3
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Downscaling
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CATCHMOD REGMOD
Structure0.0
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2020s 2050s 2080s
All combined
Conditional probabilities of lower summer flows in the River Thames by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Source: Wilby and Harris (2006)
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Climate science into practice
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Sometimes taking a very very long-term view
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Phase 1 : Consent, design, construction (~10 years)
Phase 2 : Operational power plant (~60 years)
Phase 3 : Decommissioning (~20 years)
Phase 4 : Storage of spent fuel (~80 years)
Favourite paper…because…
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Hallegatte (2009) Global Environmental Change, 19, 240–247
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Strategies Definition Examples (Tajikistan energy sector)
Low-regretMeasures that yield benefits even in the absence of climate change
Energy efficiency measures; water efficiency measures; real-time monitoring and forecasting of fluvial flood risk factors; upgrading infrastructure to higher specification on replacement
ReversibleMeasures that aim to keep as low as possible the cost of being wrong
Temporary winter rooms / verandas; periodic review and adjustment of operating rules for hydropower to maximize head and minimize spill
Safety margin
Extra ‘headroom’ to absorb climate change and reduce vulnerability at low or no cost
Precautionary allowance applied to peak river flows used in dam height and spillway design
SoftInstitutional or financial measures that plan for and/or spread risks
Early warning systems for snowmelt and rainfall-triggered landslides
Shorten time horizon
Uncertainty in future climate conditions countered by reducing the lifetime of investments
Cheaper or modular infrastructure that can be replaced as climate risks emerge
IntegratedManage positive and negative side-effects of adaptation actions, including trade-offs with other sectors
Integrated land and water management to reduce sediment loads; conjunctive operation of multiple infrastructure assets
Practical steps can be taken despite uncertainty
Tools to support adaptation decisions (1)
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Tools to support adaptation decisions (2)
Screen shot from Google Earth tool demonstrating VU93 metrics in Dhamar, Yemen.
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Tools to support adaptation decisions (3)
Cross-validated model forecasts with lead-time one month (Q1) compared with long-term monthly mean discharge (the Zero Order Forecast). Source: Dixon and Wilby (submitted)
Helping to build capacity (climate services)
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Lest we forget the importance of observations
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Loughborough University TEmperature Network (LUTEN) http://www.luten.org.uk/home
Thermal ‘shockwave’ in the River Dove 28 June 2012
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated ApproachNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO, 21 July to 6 August 2014
Hydrology class Shanghai-style
Avoiding ‘climate exceptionalism’