roche: defining priorities for a high tech healthcare …c67012a3-18a6-406d-b582-ba493a005… ·...

22
1 1 Roche: Defining priorities for a high tech healthcare company Erich Hunziker, Deputy Head of the Corporate Executive Committee and CFO February 2008 2 This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as ‘believes’, ‘expects’, ‘anticipates’, ‘projects’, ‘intends’, ‘should’, ‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, ‘future’ or similar expressions or by discussion of, among other things, strategy, goals, plans or intentions. Various factors may cause actual results to differ materially in the future from those reflected in forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, among others: 1 pricing and product initiatives of competitors; 2 legislative and regulatory developments and economic conditions; 3 delay or inability in obtaining regulatory approvals or bringing products to market; 4 fluctuations in currency exchange rates and general financial market conditions; 5 uncertainties in the discovery, development or marketing of new products or new uses of existing products, including without limitation negative results of clinical trials or research projects, unexpected side-effects of pipeline or marketed products; 6 increased government pricing pressures; 7 interruptions in production 8 loss of or inability to obtain adequate protection for intellectual property rights; 9 litigation; 10 loss of key executives or other employees; and 11 adverse publicity and news coverage. Any statements regarding earnings per share growth is not a profit forecast and should not be interpreted to mean that Roche’s earnings or earnings per share for this year or any subsequent period will necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings or earnings per share of Roche. For marketed products discussed in this presentation, please see full prescribing information on our website – www.roche.com All mentioned trademarks are legally protected

Upload: lamlien

Post on 18-Jun-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

1

1

Roche: Defining priorities for a high tech healthcare company

Erich Hunziker, Deputy Head of the Corporate Executive Committee and CFO February 2008

2

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as ‘believes’, ‘expects’, ‘anticipates’, ‘projects’, ‘intends’, ‘should’, ‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, ‘future’ or similar expressions or by discussion of, among other things, strategy, goals, plans or intentions. Various factors may cause actual results to differ materially in the future from those reflected in forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, among others:

1 pricing and product initiatives of competitors;2 legislative and regulatory developments and economic conditions;3 delay or inability in obtaining regulatory approvals or bringing products to market; 4 fluctuations in currency exchange rates and general financial market conditions; 5 uncertainties in the discovery, development or marketing of new products or new uses of existing products,

including without limitation negative results of clinical trials or research projects, unexpected side-effects of pipeline or marketed products;

6 increased government pricing pressures; 7 interruptions in production 8 loss of or inability to obtain adequate protection for intellectual property rights; 9 litigation;10 loss of key executives or other employees; and11 adverse publicity and news coverage.

Any statements regarding earnings per share growth is not a profit forecast and should not be interpreted to mean that Roche’s earnings or earnings per share for this year or any subsequent period will necessarily match or exceed the historical published earnings or earnings per share of Roche.

For marketed products discussed in this presentation, please see full prescribing information on our website –www.roche.com

All mentioned trademarks are legally protected

2

3

Additional information in relation to the offer for Ventana shares and where to find it

These materials are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to purchase or a solicitation of an offer to sell Ventana’s common stock. The tender offer is being made pursuant to a tender offer statement on schedule TO (including the offer to purchase, letter of transmittal and other related tender offer materials) filed by Roche with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on June 27, 2007. These materials, as they may be amended from time to time, contain important information, including the terms and conditions of the offer, that should be read carefully before any decision is made with respect to the tender offer. Investors and stockholders can obtain a free copy of these materials and other documents filed by Roche with the SEC at the website maintained by the SEC at www.sec.gov.The tender offer materials may also be obtained for free by contacting the information agent for the tender offer, Mackenzie Partners, at (212) 929-5500 or (800) 322-2885 (toll-free). Additional information can also be found on www.roche.com.

4

Performance up-date

Our priorities

3

5

Sales in CHF billion USD2006 2007 CHF local growth

% change in

2007: Industry-leading sales growth continued

Pharmaceuticals 33.3 36.8 10 11 15

Diagnostics 8.7 9.3 7 6 12

Roche Group 42.0 46.1 10 10 15

6

Differentiated and rejuvenated product portfolioFrom 1 to 9 products with sales at or above CHF 1 billion

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

Xeloda

Rocephin

Roaccutane

MabThera/Rituxan

NeoRecormon/Epogin

CellCept

Herceptin

Pegasys

Avastin

Pharmaceuticals key products (CHF billion) By year of market introduction

TarcevaBoniva

4

7

Core EPS continued to rise rapidly

11.85

7.84

5.874.714.34

9.86

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Core EPS CAGR1 ('02 – '07): 22%CHF

1 Compound Annual Growth Rate

8

Strategic acquisitions and portfolio enhancementsCommitted to technology leadership

Driving personalisedhealthcare

Leader inPharma

Leader in Diagnostics

Earlydetection Diagnosis

Patientstratifi-cation

Treatment Monitoring

• THP (therapeutic antibody technology)

• Alnylam (RNA interference technology)

• Transgene (therapeutic HPV vaccine)

• BioVeris (electrochemiluminescencetechnology)

• 454 Life Sciences (ultra fast gene sequencing)

• NimbleGen (high-density DNA microarrays)

• Ventana (tissue-based diagnostics)1

• Tanox (acquired by Genentech)

1 Tender offer pending

5

9

Our objectives for 2008

Sales

• High single-digit local currency sales increase for Roche Group (excl. Tamiflu pandemic1)

• Above-market sales growth1 in both divisions

Core EPS

• Core earnings per share target2 at least at record 2007 level despite significant increase in R&D investment and considerably lower Tamiflu pandemic sales

Shareholder return

• Continuous increase in dividend pay-out ratio over the next 3 years

1 Excluding government and corporate stockpiling orders of Tamiflu for pandemic use2 At constant exchange rates Barring unforeseen events

10

Performance up-date

Our priorities

6

112006 2011 2016

1

Roche Challenge # 1Achieve above peer level sales growth for both divisions

Can we constantly

gain market share

in both divisions ?

12

2007: Outgrowing the market in all geographies

4%

12%

5%

7%

6%

17%

3%

6%

15%

10%

11%

Other

Japan

LatinAmerica

NorthAmerica

Europe

Division

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007IMS YTD Oct '07

Local sales growth

Pegasys

Herceptin

MabThera/Rituxan

NeoRecormon/Epogin

CellCept

Avastin

Xeloda

Tarceva

Boniva

% Key products of total pharmaceutical sales

Roche

7

13

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Quarters since launch

Sal

es

Roche Oncology: Strongest growing franchise Avastin: Best growing oncology brand ever

Avastin launch compared to other cancer therapies (US plus top-5 EU markets1)

0

5

10

15

20

2004 2005 2006 2007

Europe/RoW US Japan

CHF billion

+28 %

+11 %

+14 %

2007 vs. 2006local growth

6 %

44 %

50 %

1 Source: IMS. Products included are Avastin, Alimta, Arimidex, Camptosar, Eloxatine, Erbitux, Femara, Gemzar, Herceptin, MabThera, Nexavar, Sutent, Tarceva, Taxol, Taxotere, Xeloda

Avastin

+20 %

14

Key products on growth pathNew indications provide fresh growth opportunities

0

1

2

3

4

Q1-05 Q3-05 Q1-06 Q3-06 Q1-07 Q3-07

HerceptinAvastin

MabTheraTarceva

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q1-02 Q3-02 Q1-03 Q3-03 Q1-04 Q3-04 Q1-05 Q3-05 Q1-06 Q3-06 Q1-07 Q3-07

50%29%

MA

T sa

les

(CH

F bn

)

0

2

4

6

Q1-02 Q3-02 Q1-03 Q3-03 Q1-04 Q3-04 Q1-05 Q3-05 Q1-06 Q3-06 Q1-07 Q3-07

0

0.5

1

1.5

Q1-05 Q3-05 Q1-06 Q3-06 Q1-07 Q3-07

Roche Pharma salesPharma Division sales

MA

T sa

les

(CH

F bn

)

MAT = Rolling 4 quarter sales at avg. YTD Sept. '07 exchange rates

8

15

Our oncology strategy: Setting new standards of care New tumor types, new combinations, new lines of intervention

In preparation

GIST

3rd

line

2nd line

1st line

Adjuvant

BC

3rd

line

2nd line

1st line

Adjuvant

NSCLC

3rd

line

2nd line

1st line

Adjuvant

CRC

Completed

Ongoing

RCCProstate

OvarianPancreatic

target all tumor types

Clinically differentiated product

Superior outcome for patients

Example Avastin

target all possible combinations

target earlier (adjuvant) intervention

16

Avastin still early in its journey Realising full potential across tumour types

Avastin also trialed in gastric, ovarian, prostate, aNHL, and brain (GBM)

(Trial names) [Approval status]. More trials are ongoing than listed above.

Launched[EU; with interferon]

–Kidney(RCC)

–Phase III(AVEREL w/Herceptin)

Phase III(BETH w/Herceptin)

Breast (HER2+)

Phase III(RIBBON-2, incl. w/Xeloda)

Launched [EU paclitaxel]Phase III (AVADO, RIBBON-1)

Phase III(BEATRICE, E5103)

Breast (HER2-)

Phase III(BETA Lung w/Tarceva)

Launched[EU majority of chemos,

US carboplatin/paclitaxel]

Phase III(E1505)

Lung (NSCLC)

Launched [EU, US, JP; broad label in 1st and subsequent lines]

Phase III(AVANT, NSABP C-08,

E5202, E5204)

Colon/ rectal

2nd-line of treatment1st-line of treatment

Advanced/metastatic(Extending life)

Early/adjuvant (Potential for cure)

Tumour

9

17

FundingRoche oncology products are cost-effective

MabThera1st LineFollicular

NHL StageIII/IV

MabTheraAggressive

NHL

Herceptinearly BC

Tarceva 2ndline NSCLC

Statins highrisk

HerceptinmBC

Glivec CML StatinsElderly low

risk

GBP in (000)

8 2-18 5-23

29-3822-28

36-38

59-111

8 - 11

Cost per QALY for selected drugs (UK data – NICE/SMC)

We aim to expand use of our products to earlier-stage cancers, providing full benefit to patients

18

Oncology is still dramatically under funded Compared to other disease areas

Source: A pan-European comparison regarding patient access to cancer drugs, Karolinska Institute DALY: Disability-Adjusted Life Years, figures from 2002/3; Commonly used measure of the burden of disease

17.1%

16.7%

8.7%

5.9%

26.3%

Mental disease25.3%

Cardiovascular

Cancer

Injuries

Resp.

Other

6.4%Cancer

Total disease burden in DALYs

Total healthcare costs

Drugs

8%

Ambulatory16%

Other

9%

Inpatienthospital care

67%

Cost breakdown in oncology

(example: Germany)

10

19

Roche has a low exposure to genericsLong-term sustainable business

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Sales erosion due to generisation (% of 2004 sales)

Roche

Average European peers

20

CellCept

Pegasys Neo Recormon

Herceptin

XelodaMabTheraAvastinin CRC

FUTURE PILLARS

Actemra

Boniva

MabThera in RA

Diabetes Care

Molecular Diagnostics

Immuno-Diagnostics

Avastin adjuvantCRC

USA (Greater)Europe Japan Asia China Latin

America

Tarceva

Roche: Unique geographic risk diversification

Avastin adjuvantNSCLC

Avastin adjuvant in BC

CETP i

GLP - 1

Roche: Unique “pillars of value” risk diversification

Roche has a unique „investment case“

Mircera

Avastinin NSCL

Avastinin BC

Pertuzumab

Ocrelizumab (AI)

11

21

Pharmaceuticals 16 14 12 11

Roche Pharma 13 11 10 14

Genentech 30 26 18 6

Chugai -7 4 4 4

Diagnostics 6 5 4 8

Roche Group 14 12 10 10

Outlook on 2008 sales: Growth 1.5 to 2 times the world market on an underlying basis

Growth2007

+ 10%

Tamiflu

Pan-demicsales

High single digit

Under-lying

growth

Q1 ‘07 Q2 ‘07 Q3 ‘07 Q4 ‘07

Excluding government &corporate pandemic Tamiflu

Local sales growth rates 2007 vs 2006

22

Conclusion # 1:

Roche wants to maximize assets on hand –

and to translate value opportunities into reality

Challenge # 1:

Achieve above industry-standard sales growth

The short/medium term sales perspective

12

23

2 Can we achieve an

attractive top-line and

still deliver strong

EPS growth?

Challenge # 2Turn attractive top line into attractive bottom line

2006 2011 2016

24

• People are key!

Activate potential and constantly educate: to learn faster than

our competitors is the only sustainable factor of success!

• The right “quantum” size for Roche ?

Fixed cost versus variable cost

• Operational productivity

Doing the right things rightThree focus areas

13

25

Number of employees

Readiness for changelow high

Our leadership and communications efforts have to concentrate here

To achieve our ambitions we have to activate the potential of our 72,000 employees!

Activate our employees’ potentialConstant education to overcome fear of change

26

Even if costs grow considerably slower than sales”, there is risk that we build up too much infrastructure / fixed costs!

Sales

What is the right quantum size for a “sustainable”Roche?

14

27

We must become better and cheaper in whatever we do!

Operational productivity is an important key enabler for the Roche Group

Constantly improving operational productivity

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

21.3%

22.9%

25.9% 27.9%

20.2%

16.3%

Focus on differentiated products paying offOutstanding long-term value creation

05

101520253035404550

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

1 Prescription and Diagnostics2 Continuing businesses, before exceptional items

Group sales1 (CHF billion)

CAGR 15 %

Group operating profit2 (CHF billion)31.4%

Continuing to focus on our core assets

CAGR 25 %

15

29

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Committed to continuously increase pay-out ratio over the next 3 years

CHF Dividend CAGR1 (’91-’07): 19%

1 compound annual growth rate1 Compound Annual Growth Rate. 1995 includes centenary bonus. 2007 Dividend: Proposed by the Board of Directors.

30

Outlook 2008 Profit: A commitment to our future Redistribution of ‘costs’ into R&D

Upside - not in outlook:- Additional Tamiflu pandemic sales

- Avastin adjuvant

- Delayed start or ‘failure’ of R&D assets (in particular risk-factored success of many phase II assets)

Underlying growth

and

Product Mix

and

Efficiency gains

Tamiflu pandemic

sales impact

Core EPS 2007

R&D

Commitment for thefuture

16

31

Conclusion # 2:

Roche has many programs running to ensure above

industry standard EPS-growth

Challenge # 2:

Achieve above industry-standard value creation

Short/medium term bottom-line perspective

32

1

2

3

Can we produce enough

internal and external

innovation to maintain

the Roche Group’s

Leadership position?

Challenge # 3Filling the “strategic gap”

2006 2011 2016

17

33

Which degree of innovation (= medical differentiation) is necessary to jump regulatory and reimbursement hurdles?

Research DevelopmentMarketing &DistributionProduction

CustomerbenefitInnovation

Sustainable leadershipHow can we constantly provide benefit to customers?

34

Performance

Innovation and Change ManagementPerformance improvements are not linear

Time

Major obstaclesare overcome; innovation reachescertain adoption level

Innovation widelyadopted; furtherpushing the performancewith this innovationbecomes increasingly difficult

18

35

Performance

Large-Scale TransformationRequires multiple S-Curves building on each other

• Critical for large scale transformation is that major innovations build on each other

• Combination of quantum-leap progress and continuous improvement

Organisation needs a major step change every few years followed by a period of stability to digest, optimize and continuous improvements

Time

Quantumchange

Continuousimprovement; preparationof nextquantumchange

36

The Roche “hub & spoke”-model: Roche controls the global value chain, but is open for Research partnerships

“Roche core”

Research DevelopmentMarketing +Distribution

ProductionInnovation

partners

19

37

Access to Innovation is key - competition growingCosts of third party innovation is raising steeply!

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Early-stageLate-stage

• Average cost of in-licensing deals rose 40% (CAGR) since 2000

• By 2010, 40% of Pharma peers’revenues expected to come from external sources of innovation

Average cost of in-licensing (Rx), $m

38

Disease Biology Areas• Focus on five DBAs

• Decisions made by Disease Biology Leadership Teams (DBLTs) against measurable metrics

• Up to Proof of Concept: DBLTs manage compound progression within respective DBA

• After Proof of Concept: DBLTs responsible for conducting scientific/ medical reviews and providing options to Pharma Leadership Team

Roche 2015: Disease Biology Areas (DBAs) Alignment and focus

Idea Market

DBA CNS

DBA Oncology DBLT

DBA Viral

DBA Inflammatory

DBA Metabolic

DBLT

DBLT

DBLT

DBLT

Clear focus

More independent and flexible disease areas

Faster and simpler decision processes

20

39

Key drivers in place for sustainable growthCurrent and projected sources of value creation (phase IIb and III)

2007 2011 2015

AvastinmCRC,NSCLC

Herceptinadjuvant BC

MabTheraNHL

HCVPolymerase

Inhibitor

ILLUSTRATIVE

ActemraRA

Avastinadjuvant

Colon cancer CETPinhibitor

OcrelizumabRA, lupus

PertuzumabmBC

Avastinadjuvant

Breast cancerAvastinadjuvant

Lungcancer

OcrelizumabMS

GLP-1T2 diabetes

MabTheraRA

AvastinmBC

extensions

MabTheraCLL

HPV16therapeutic

vaccine

Tarceva1st line maint.

Tarceva+Avastin

combo 2nd line

Xelodaadj. BC

40Unless stated otherwise, submissions will occur in US and EU.

MabTheraCLL (EU)

Xeloda+Avastinadj. CC (EU)

CERA (R744 ) cancer anaemia

Avastinprostate Ca (EU)

ocrelizumab (R1594 )RA & SLE (EU)

AvastinNSCLC squamous (EU)

Major Roche managed projected submissionsover the next years

Tarcevaadj. NSCLC (EU)

GLP-1 (R1583)type II diabetes

Avastin+HerceptinmBC 1st line (EU)

Status as of December 31, 2007.

MabTheraiNHL maint 1st line (EU)

RAR gamma (R667)emphysema

Pha

se 3

MabThera+Avastinaggressive NHL (EU)

Avastinadj. NSCLC (EU)

HCV pol.inhib. (R1626)HCV

HPV 16 (R3484)cervical neoplasia

2008 2009 2010 2011 post 2011

Avastinovarian Ca (EU)

PNP inhibitor (R3421)AI/transplant

Pha

se 2

TarcevaNSCLC 1st line maint (EU)

MabTheraRA DMARD IR (EU)

Tarceva+AvastinNSCLC 2nd line (EU)

Avastinpancreatic cancer (EU)

Herceptingastric Ca (EU)

Xeloda adj. CC combo oxaliplatin

Xelodaadj. BC

CETP inhibitor (R1658)dyslipidemia

aleglitazar (R1439)type II diabetes

AvastinHER2- adj. BC (EU)

Avastinadj. CC (EU)

AvastinmBC + standard chem (EU)

Avastingastric Ca metastatic(EU)

DPP-IV (3) (R1579)type II diabetes

Tarceva+AvastinNSCLC 1st line (EU)

DBA OncologyDBA InflammationDBA VirologyDBA MetabolicDBA CNSOthers

Tarceva + AvastinNSCLC 1st line maint (EU

IGF-1R inh huMAb R1507Ewing’s sarcoma (EU)

pertuzumab (R1273)early BC (EU)

AvastinmBC + Taxotere (EU

pertuzumab (R1273)HER 2+ BC (EU)

21

41

Major phase III commitments – large investmentsAdditional large phase III trials started or starting soon

2007 2008 2009

Avastin adjuvant CC

Avastin adjuvant lung

Avastin gastric, NHL

Avastin mBC

Actemra RA

Ocrelizumab RA, lupus

Avastin adjuvant BC

Ocrelizumab MS

Pertuzumab mBC

CETPi

GLP-1

Other T2D compounds

HCV pipeline

42

Roche key therapeutic areasCurrent and future pillars of growth

MabThera

AvastinHerceptin

TarcevaPertuzumab

OncologyXeloda

ApomabApo2L/TRAIL

R1583 GLP-1

Metabolic

3 phase I compounds

R1439 dual PPAR

Virology

R7227 Protease Inh.

PegasysR1626 Polym. Inh.

CNS6 phase I compounds

On HandPromising Late

StageEmerging Mid-Term

Early Stage

R1658 CETP Inh.

R1594 ocrelizumab

RA/Autoimmune

5 phase I compounds

ActemraMabThera

Tamiflu

R7128 Polym. Inh.R3484 HPV16

PNP inhibitor

15 phase I compoundsARQ

R1579 DPP-IV

22

43

Conclusion 3:

With Roche 2015 we have the right platform in place

to identify the right priorities

Challenge # 3:

Filling the value gap

Long-term perspective Roche 2015 is a crucial platform

We Innovate Healthcare