rockdale library august 2013.9 ex

1

Information Exponentials

and Partners

Future Rockdale Public Library Service:

creating different scenarios

Steve O’Connor

A view from my home…………….

...my flooded home

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After Friday….

• Outcomes from the Thursday and Friday Workshops

• Return to the Community for final input• Select Group to Finalise the Preferred Library

Scenario• Strategic Planning or the Allocation of

Resources to follow

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Aims of this Workshop

• Enable us to understand and plan multiple futures

• Blend different tools and insights into future plans and actions

• Understand client need and to incorporate this into future models

• Harness the capacity of whole organisation… users and staff

Objectives for this session

• To understand the Rockdale Public Library User and their information need

• To discuss the available multiple futures• To understand what we have achieved, what

we want to achieve and that which we have not yet begun to think of

• To begin to understand what Scenario Planning is as a tool for the modern future-orientated library

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‘Wei Ji’ CRISIS

Danger and Opportunity

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Are we on the same page??

10

PerceptionMatters more than reality

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Value that is not valued

is not valuable

These three points articulated by Rick Anderson12

Patrons do not need librarians

as much as they once did

What can you see?

13

What can you see?

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“People want what they want when they want it.

They don’t want something else, they don’t want less than they want,

and they certainly don’t want it

at some other time.”

Henry Forsha

Staff view of what is done well

Collections

Service

Programs

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Frontline Customer service

High calibre ServiceStaff skills are well utilised

CALD ServicesStaff skills are well utilised

Physical Collections

Up to date collections Collection

Development

Good Collections

Local History research

Wide and varied Collections

Supportive teams

Continuous improvements

Children’s Collections

Modern ‘p’ collection

New release novels

Various programs, children’s, Local history, CALD Adult

Story time

Early literacy services

Engage with customers at their level

Promote technological change to special need groups

Friendlier staffExperienced staff

Children’s activities

In-house cataloguing

Staff view of what should be done

Collections

Programs

Technology

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Frontline Customer service

Cultural varied ProgramsComputer activities at Branches

CALD ServicesResearch community needs

Demise of p newspapersMore Faster

computers E-resources collection

Downloadable ebooks

User generated content

Wide and varied Collections

More early literacy services



E Resources

Use of e books

Digital technologies

Wi Fi Access

Up to date technology

More varied programs

Remote access to ‘I’

Adult programsMore CALD services

Computer access

Availability of i equipment

More computers

Further ‘disruptions’

E books

Staff view of what should be done 2

Collaboration

Facilities

Services

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Catalogue in community languages

More Shelving /FurnitureMore study room

CALD ServicesLack of community space

Liaise with other departmentsWork with other

Council Libraries Engagement with customers

Collections distributions

Population changes

Internet power

Appropriate space



Collaboration

New release novels

Tutoring Homework assistance

IT Training

Even more Helpful services

Meeting rooms!!!

Helping unemployed

Areas for study/ PCs so on Modern Study spaces

New emerging technologies

More Promotion / MarketingWeb site marketing

Promote databases

Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November,

201120

What is the Library …..?

• What is the Library doing well?

• What does it need to do better??

• THREE OF EACH please

Changing the mind-set

• Scenario Planning as a process, but not a solution

• Scenarios are a form of engagement in the solution

• Plan from the Future rather than in the present

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What are the influences?

• What is the perception?• Is the current view of the ‘Library’

tired or … expected?• Are there too many clichés or ideas

on library and content futures not thought through?

• Is the environment requiring evidence-based solutions?

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The cool eye of the Future• ‘Future’ is a very real force in our lives• We do not know what the future

holds• We use the term very loosely and vaguely• Can be intimidated by the future, or the absence of certainty• Paths to certainty are crucial• The Futures is deep in the EYE…

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Ordered Futures

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Chaos

The Rear vision view….• We can only judge how far we have come by

looking backwards• We can only understand our path to the future

with a ‘rear vision mirror’

Photo credit: David Hobbs 28

The path to the present

is littered with choices

The Future Is Not Linear….

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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

NOW

DECISION POINTS

SCENARIO PATH

OPTIONS

Extinction Summary

2013 Getting Lost

2018 Libraries Blackberries Video rental stores

2020 Copyright

2025 Desktop Computers Blogging

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Disrupted models

• IBM Mainframe disrupted by Personal Computer

• Diaries… Paper disrupted by PDA• Diaries, Contacts disrupted by PDA, then Mobile

phone• Nokia mobile phone disrupted by multi-

functioned iPhone, HTA etc• Kodak industries disrupted by Digital

technologiesSteve O'Connor Leadership Future

Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011

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Five Principles of Disruption

*M arket re se arch an d p lan n in g go o d fo r su stain in g te ch n o lo gie s

1. Companies depend on customers and investors for resources*Do n

2. Small markets do not solve growthneeds of large companies

3. Markets that do not exist cannot be analysed

Five Principles ……..

4. Organisation’s capabilities define its disabilities

*Capability in processes and values…work against organisation implementing change

*Technology improvement provides greater performance than market can absorb

5. Technology supply may not equal market demand

Has the Library model been disrupted?

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EXERCISE

• Identify examples of potential disruptions:

– Could affect our general lives

– Could affect our new future library:

• Should be within 3 year time-frame

• What does the general populace say about Libraries, their present and future purpose?

• What do the those responsible for the library say?– Funder?– Governing body such as a Council?– Connections to other cultural bodies?

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Which Lane is your Library wanting to be in?

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Build a picture

• What is the imaginative story we want to tell folk?

• This is a story of why we need a new or revitalised Library

• We will do the WHAT (i.e. design and features ) in the next session

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What kinds of data?

• What kinds of data do we have?

• What kinds of data explain the future needs??

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More about …..

• Insiders and Outsiders• Over time most of us become Insiders as we

master our discipline• InnoCentive illustrates the powerof Outsiders• We need to be Outsiders• Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole

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Recap

• Societal trends affecting Libraries– Disrupted library models

• Kind of Library?– Impact of digital?– Partners?

• Data?– What is it telling you?

• Collections?

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Choices

• Many decision points• Better to choose rather than having the future

happen to you• So how is it best to inform the decision points?• Engagement in the need equation as well as the

choices?• What are the best choices which you have

recognised in your own career?• It is your choice

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EXERCISE

• Imagine what your library was like in 2002, 2007?

• What were some of the characteristics of the organisation then?

• What are the three main forces the Library was doing well?

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“ You can’t stop change from coming… you can only usher it in and work out the terms. If you are smart and a little lucky, you can make it your friend”

Barrack Obama

Time Nov 17, 2008: 25


201148

Path tunnel gets narrower• As we look forwards the definition in the

distance becomes very indistinct• The wider environment in the distance; the

spaces to each side cannot be seen• It is only as we approach that point, do we gain greater clarity• So ‘seeing’ the future is difficult and predictability is not easily found

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What are Scenarios?

• The Long View• Outside-in thinking• Multiple Perspectives

• Allow ourselves time to come to a new view, multiple views

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What is Scenario Planning?

• Process allows options to remain ‘in consideration’

• Allowing all ideas to come to the fore• Recognising that we donot have one future, butmany• How many scenarios?

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Imagination and Stories

• Strategic Planning is an important process but effectively it concerns the allocation of resources

• Scenario Planning seeks to use the imagination to conjure up new , different options

• Imagination needs to be strengthened so that improbable ideas, impractical ideas are not dismissed

• Imagination liberates us from past thinking

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53The-Library-of-the-Future-Is-web (CC) by Calgary New Central Library

54ALA 2011 Confronting the Future

55http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/page/scenarios-2050-0

Scenarios for 2050

Creativity

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Consider…..

“Creativity is the residue of time wasted”

Albert Einstein

“Always carry a light globe”

Bob Dylan

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Milton Glaser, iconic New York designer

Creativity is a verb

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More about …..• Insiders and Outsiders• Over time most of us become Insiders as we

master our discipline• InnoCentive illustrates the power of Outsiders• We need to be Outsiders• Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole

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One sphere to another..

• Right Brain Hemisphere allows us to see the whole• It enables us to find connections between seemingly

unconnected things• The Forest ( Right) and the trees (Left)• Prefrontal cortex helps focus attention on the task at

hand• Understanding some brain research assists in

understanding the the creative process• Blue helps create; Red spells Danger: Yellow is

uncomfortable61

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Go Park your Future elsewhere

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Research

Different Scenarios CommunityYour

Preferred Library Future

Stories

EXERCISE

• We imagined what your library was like in 2003, 2008?

• How have the characteristics of the organisation changed since then?

• What are the forces will you have to deal with in the next three years?

Publishers

• Digital 1990+• Elsevier( 1300 titles) and major publishers

done retrospective collections• Taken over archiving role .. Implications??• Changing copyright / licensing /ownership

arrangements

Professional Publishing and Information Universe

(a)

STM

Legal & Tax

Financial

B2B

Education

Media/Marketing

Other

Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090(a) Combined KAP/Springer entity.

Total 2002 Sales (€ in m)

Some Facts

• Book Publishing in 1963 worth US$1.68 billion• In 2008 it was worth US$ 40.3 billion• Science publishing US$ 9.4 billion in 2011• Science published 1.8 million English articles

at US$5,000 per article in 2011• Estimated that OA average cost of US$660 per

article

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Cell Reports costs US$5,000 per article whereas Public Library of Science PLoS, costs US$1,350

PeerJ and BioMed Central are other OA Journals

Industry profit margins are 20% - 30%.

Average cost per article US$3,500 to US$4,000


201170

A Truly Global Industry

Reed Elsevier Wolters Kluwer

Pearson

64%28%

8%

46%49%

5%

US

19%

8%

73%

Europe% of Revenues Originating from: Rest of the World

VNU

36%

11%

53%(a)

(a) Includes Canada.

Published Output Held

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

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1998

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2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 Percentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs published overseas

Year

% h

eld

Long Tail

Life Cycle

020406080100120

Period

Use

Change in archival role……

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James Canton http://www.globalfuturist.com

What is happening to Content?

• Narrowing of the ownership of major publishing houses• Move to sell directly to user and ignoring site licenses• Move to digital delivery

– E-books with many different models; limiting access and retention

– Will e-books be broken down into smaller digital objects?– E-books and mobile delivery – Learning objects and the development of MOOC’s

• Will Open Access and Institutional Repositories thrive?

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Growth of Digital…..

1 2 3 4 50%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Information Delivered to Library’s Clients

Web

Digital

Print

Period

Growth of Digital….

1 2 3 4 50%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Web Digital

Print

Year

EXERCISE

• What is your prediction of the content mix NOW and in 3 years time?

NOW 3 YEARS

• Web % %• Digital % %• Print % %

Growth of Digital….

1 2 3 4 50%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Web Digital

Print

Increased Relevance

“Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services.All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “

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Increased Relevance


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Increased Relevance


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Increased Relevance


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Scenarios can explore issues simply

“ ……..The skill set needed by library staff is changing rapidly although there is no funding for staff development or retooling of staff skills. With the emphasis on virtual services, the library is depending more on volunteers to supplement the limited staff who don’t have the requisite technical expertise. An enthusiastic group of Generation Y and younger users is helping the library in its move into the virtual arena by contributing to tagging and other web 2.0 efforts.

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What is ‘Inevitability’?• There is risk in disruption• What is a risk?• Risk is not Failure• What is the level of probability of failure?• Engagement with Risk in a disrupted environment is a crucial strategy

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“If you want to succeed, double your failure rate”

Thomas J Watson

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www.informationexponentials.com

Development of scenarios

WITHINPARADIGMSTRATEGIES

PARADIGMCHALLENGING

STRATEGIES

MINDLESSACTION FUTURES TRAP

WEAK

WEAK

STRONG

STRONG

FUTURE FOCUS

STRATEGICTHINKING

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Research

Different Scenarios CommunityYour

Preferred Library Future

Stories

Publishing cycle

USER as AUTHOR

PUBLISHERUSER as READER

LIBRARIAN as FUNDER

Publishing cycle

USER as AUTHOR


LIBRARIAN as FUNDER

Intellectual Property Rights

Publishing cycle

USER as AUTHOR


LIBRARIAN as FUNDER


$$$

Publishing cycle

USER as AUTHOR


LIBRARIAN as FUNDER as PUBLISHER


$$$

IMPACT OF OPEN ACCESS

At the Crossroads…

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‘Forces’ exercise can show evidence of Scenarios

AUTO INTER-LOCKING

NONE COMPLETE

COMPLETE

NONE

OUTSOURCING

NOW 3 YEARS

Auto-Inter Lending

AUTO INTER-LOCKING

NONE COMPLETE

COMPLETE

NONE

OUTSOURCING

NOW 3 YEARS

THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY

Auto-Inter Lending

AUTO INTER-LOCKING

NONE COMPLETE

COMPLETE

NONE

OUTSOURCING

NOW 3 YEARS

THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY

NOT ENOUGH TO GO AROUND

Auto-Inter Lending

What have we learnt ?

• The Future isn’t what it used to be• The Future can be what you want it to be

• Techniques for developing Business Scenarios– Funding models– Service capability– Skill development ……and planning

Think in terms of…

• Scenarios create new stories• What contrasting forces will lead to a break

through?– Relevance /irrelevance– New Service/ No service– New approach/ same-old-same old– More space/ less space– More budget/less budget

• Description of each created quadrant?111

Worse case scenarios

• If we are looking for better, what could be worse, far worse?

• Unforeseen changes in support/regulation/parent organisation?

• Unforeseen publisher vendor mergers or new technologies?

• Elections?• Financial disasters?• Earthquakes?

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How many futures?

• There are any number of Futures• Incremental approach

– Alternative 1– Official Future– Alternative 2

• Scaled Approach– Conservative– Modest– Challenging

• A Preferred Scenario• Preferred Scenario creates the drive for the Strategic Planning

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Increased Relevance


114

Plan not for tomorrow

• What should the future look like in the 2017?

• Start in 2013 and then work toward it

• Spend time getting accepted your Preferred Library Scenario

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Avoid Group Thinking

• Conformity to norm thinking will limit opportunities• Do not just accept stories about library• Open up and always encourage different thinking• Think about what is being proposed and encourage

an environment of thoughtful, questioning dissent• Research outside this discipline

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Do not let the Future happen to you.

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Exercise

• Create three Scenarios

• Give each of them an imaginative NAME

• DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points

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Three Scenarios

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Style of Story

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The Learning Hub“ The Library in 2011 continues to be located on a land-locked campus, in the middle of one of the most densely populated parts of the world, but is now everywhere else at the same time. Its strong reputation for being busy is still true but it has successfully fused the information and study worlds; fused the physical and digital into one; fused locally produced and the commercially produced information for the benefit of the community. This is a seamless world of quality information from the web, large sets of digital books and journals as well as great collections of books. The information is now even more digital and wherever possible print materials are delivered digitally. This is what is now called the LEARNING HUB a more comfortable and dynamic learning environment . The Library has focused its services more on outreach than previously. In reaching out it is both visiting the community wherever it is and also bringing more of that same community to the re-vitalised Library building. In this future, the traditional functions of the Library have been re-defined and re-focused to facilitate the growth of knowledge.”

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Emerging Trends in the

BroaderEnvironment

Exercise

• Create three Scenarios

• Give each of them an imaginative NAME

• DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points

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Possibilities abound……those owned by our Clients will always be

richer

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http://www.informationexponentials.com/

rockdale library august 2013.9 ex

Education

future future

library tired

current view

rear vision view

mindset scenario planning

allocation of resources

rockdale public library

disrupted models ibm