P.O. Box 463

6200 AL Maastricht

The Netherlands

www.riks.nl

Spatial Decision Support Systems for policy support in

urban planning contexts

Roel Vanhout

Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

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About RIKS

Independent research institute Founded in the 1980’s to focus on

Artificial intelligence E-learning Geographic information systems

… which eventually led to land use modeling Focus areas

Land use modeling Model integration Integrated modeling for policy support

RIKS

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Content

Spatial Decision Support Systems and Integrated Spatial Planning: what and how?

Land use modeling as a central component of the (I)SDSS

Application through traditional scenarios and “storyline and simulation” approach

Case studies: Province of Utrecht, the Netherlands PRELUDE (EEA) New infrastructure in Puerto Rico

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Content

Spatial Decision Support Systems and Integrated Spatial Planning: what and how?

Land use modeling as a central component of the (I)SDSS

Application through traditional scenarios and “storyline and simulation” approach

Case studies: Province of Utrecht, the Netherlands PRELUDE (EEA) New infrastructure in Puerto Rico

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Integrated Spatial Planning is …

An explicitly spatial - temporal domain

Multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral, and multiple spatial agents

Policy-interventions cause irreversible change

Policy-interventions require resources

… this requires a set of models, methods, techniques, data, …, available in an

integrated environment rather than in isolation

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What is a Policy Support System ?

Computer-based information system Supports - not replaces - some or all

phases of the decision-making process Interactive and user-friendly Facilitates analysis, learning and

communication Employs complex and weakly-structured

decision contexts

(Adapted from M. Scott Morton, 1971 and George M. Marakas, 1999)

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Weakly-structured decision context

weakly structuredproblem

structured problem

weakly structuredproblem

unstructured problem

Uncertainty

Conflicts

(After Hoppe and Peterse, 1998 in Van Delden, 2000)

Water resourcesStructured problem: What is the diameter of the aqueducts required if we want to transfer 50.000 hectoliters per day ?Weakly structured problem: Can we guarantee enough water of high quality at every day of the year for the next 15 years ?Unstructured problem: How should we manage the water resources among the different actors under climatic change?

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Content

Spatial Decision Support Systems and Integrated Spatial Planning: what and how?

Land use modeling as a central component of the (I)SDSS

Application through traditional scenarios and “storyline and simulation” approach

Case studies: Province of Utrecht, the Netherlands PRELUDE (EEA) New infrastructure in Puerto Rico

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Local,356000 cells 25ha

Regional,5 NUTS 2 regions

National, Portugal in EU

Land use modelling with MetronamicaModels at 3 coupled spatial scales

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Land use change over time

Time Loop

Land use& Interaction

weights

&

Suitability

Zoning

&

&

Accessibility

Potential for change

=

Transition RuleCells change to land-

use with highest potential until

regional demands are met.

Land use at time T+1

Regional demands

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The single run is not what counts: Working with uncertainty

Probability that the cell is occupied by particular land use as the result of uncertainty in parameter(s).

Not 1, but 10, 100, …, runsFluctuating 1, 2, …, all parameters

Milieu- en Natuureffecten Nota RuimteRIVM, May 2004

Prepared for VROM (Ministry of public housing and Spatial Planning and the Environment

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Content

Spatial Decision Support Systems and Integrated Spatial Planning: what and how?

Land use modeling as a central component of the (I)SDSS

Application through traditional scenarios and “storyline and simulation” approach

Case studies: Province of Utrecht, the Netherlands PRELUDE (EEA) New infrastructure in Puerto Rico

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Traditional scenario approach

Preparation Interviews Construction of preference and zoning maps

Workshop 1: Design of alternatives Interactive software tool application Discussion and choice of alternative locations

Workshop 2: Calculation of the alternatives Different growth figures Chosen alternatives and LOV-alternative Indicators Analysis of results and discussion

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Story and Simulation approach

Problem definition

Development of draft narrative

scenarios

Model development

and/or application

Quantification of narrative scenarios

Model runs and analysis of results

Feedback to stakeholder group

(From van Delden, Riddell, Maier, “A methodology for linking exploratory storylines  and quantitative modelling in support of long-term integrated

planning”, Environmental Modeling and Software, upcoming) 

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Content

Spatial Decision Support Systems and Integrated Spatial Planning: what and how?

Land use modeling as a central component of the (I)SDSS

Application through traditional scenarios and “storyline and simulation” approach

Case studies: Province of Utrecht, the Netherlands PRELUDE (EEA) New infrastructure in Puerto Rico

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Utrecht - different sectors and their criteria

Environmental hygiene Social coherence Economics Cultural history Landscape Traffic and transportation Ecology & nature Water resources Soil

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Utrecht - result of weighing preference maps of different sectors for industry

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Utrecht - designing alternatives for housing

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

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Utrecht - calculation of alternatives

Alternative 1 Alternative 2

AlternativeEnvironment Explorer

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Utrecht - indicators

Job potential

Open space

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Story and Simulation approach (SAS) for EEA (in PRELUDE)

Qualitative scenarioswritten by

stakeholders

Scenarios translatedin qualitative driving forces

and model parameters

Qualitative scenariooutput translated into

quantitative description

Quantitative modellingof scenario’s

EU-level

Quantitative modellingof scenario’s

Regional-level

1st meeting

Comparison by stakeholdersof the storylines with

the model output

2nd meeting

Consistent storylinesand

model calculations

3rd meeting

Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

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SAS in PRELUDE - storylines

RIKS

Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

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SAS in PRELUDE - storylines

RIKS

Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

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SAS in PRELUDE – modeling results

RIKS

Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

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SAS in PRELUDE – modeling results

RIKS

274 October 2007

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Puerto Rico: construction PR66

19902015

2015 – PR66

Puerto Rico: probability for urbanization

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Others…

Other examples: Assessment of desertification risks in the

Mediterranean Natural hazard (bush fires, flooding,

earthquakes, …) risks in Australia (South Australia) and New Zealand (Christchurch, Auckland, Wellington)

Effects of the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU (LUMOCAP)

More transport / land use interaction in Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Australia, …

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Thank you

& time for questions!

(or rvanhout@riks.nl)

Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

32RIKS

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Utrecht - the preference mapsFactor map

Giving a value to the legend items

Preference of the sector

List of factor maps

Land use function

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Utrecht - combining the preference maps

Housing Services Industry

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Utrecht - area to be planned

Currentlocations

Fixed plansuntil 2005

Plans2005-2015

Expansion2005-2015

Housing 16825 ha(673 cells)

1350 ha(54 cells)

1425 ha(57 cellen)

1300 ha(52 cellen)

Offices 375 ha(15 cells)

175 ha(7 cells)

125 ha(5 cellen)

50 ha(2 cellen)

Industry 3625 ha(145 cells)

175 ha(7 cells)

375 ha(15 cellen)

300 ha(12 cellen)