rohit talwar travel 2030 - master document sep 13th 2011

Travel 2030 –

Reinventing the

Passenger Experience

Expanded Slide Set

Vancouver, BC

September 8th 2011

Rohit Talwar

CEO – Fast Future

[email protected]

Contents

Presentation p 3

About Fast Future p 91

Background Notes p 103

Image Sources p 355

Macro

Drivers

The World in 2030

How do we get there from Here?

Research & Innovation

Customer Insight

New

Business Models

Growth is not Guaranteed…Growth is not Guaranteed…

…Thinking is Back in Fashion

Transformational Change?

It’s Only Just Begun

10 Key Patterns of Change Shaping the Next DecadeEconomic turbulence, a shift in wealth from west to east and political

uncertainty are shaping the landscape

Technology

and Science

Rethinking

Talent,

Education,

Training

Demographic

Destinies

Society in

Transition

Natural

Resource

Challenges

Geo-political

Complexity

Generational

Crossroads

Source: Designing your Future – Key Trends, Challenges and Choices – Fast Future

Economic Crisis

and Power Shift

Global

Internet

Expansion

Enterprise 3.0

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.cnq.ca/Storage.asp?StorageID=88814&SiteLanguageID=1&imgrefurl=http://www.cnq.ca/Page.asp?PageID=2065&SiteNodeID=206&h=1174&w=1280&sz=176&hl=en&start=1&usg=__9ReZOrvLdrqxDpnJsOv0lt_EXpg=&tbnid=F13K5baDJApOMM:&tbnh=138&tbnw=150&prev=/images?q=technology&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.campusaccess.com/images/education.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.campusaccess.com/&h=282&w=425&sz=9&hl=en&start=2&usg=__BGcptDiOHaCKz6qDpus_E2FLCZM=&tbnid=s09JXzcY8R89FM:&tbnh=84&tbnw=126&prev=/images?q=education&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.hhs.state.ne.us/images/omh/OMH_Logo.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.hhs.state.ne.us/minorityhealth/MHfocusgroups.htm&h=1241&w=1237&sz=146&hl=en&start=3&usg=__943gOLa3yXe4tCS_Wn2rx_MjEGE=&tbnid=foK_c1ww-55nXM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=150&prev=/images?q=minority&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.hanifworld.com/Newyear2006/Crowd city hall new year 2006 15.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.hanifworld.com/newyear2006.htm&h=768&w=1024&sz=214&hl=en&start=2&usg=__nLCHbXzWWhBrMXQoFxp9Cr8J0Rs=&tbnid=gWeizX8QHKlBEM:&tbnh=113&tbnw=150&prev=/images?q=crowd+city&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://explore.toshiba.com/images/showcase/green-recycle-img.jpg&imgrefurl=http://explore.toshiba.com/green&h=349&w=302&sz=17&hl=en&start=1&usg=__yIYKy_H-gbwW_mCHVNjBnUZVhfE=&tbnid=cq1_S6-D8EFTJM:&tbnh=120&tbnw=104&prev=/images?q=green&gbv=2&hl=en

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://api.ning.com/files/INplmvfuLEcn0baRTpee5-yqSjV0tXn3F7jqrGgO5Ck_/Globe.png&imgrefurl=http://www.sabet.tv/photo/photo/show?id=832998:Photo:1488&h=972&w=828&sz=524&hl=en&start=2&usg=__kUto2ghyLvtA6wCvFIk4awnOf8E=&tbnid=KL843_EmMtPSlM:&tbnh=149&tbnw=127&prev=/images?q=globe&gbv=2&hl=en&sa=G

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://bleongcw.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/02/21/internet.jpg&imgrefurl=http://bleongcw.typepad.com/simple_is_the_reason_of_m/singapore/&h=300&w=380&sz=57&hl=en&start=6&usg=__0YrtUcktQp6uWFSkbX2whPV6lnI=&tbnid=hwVZ31qBqt8vhM:&tbnh=97&tbnw=123&prev=/images?q=internet&gbv=2&hl=en

Aviation Outlook

Airport Expansion by 2020

China from ~150 to 244

India from ~100 to 140

Today - US – 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1Asia – a third of all flyers (2013) and travel spend (2020)

Under 100 US Airports by 2015?

Airports only in Major Euro Cities

Low Cost Carriers

64% - Half will Collapse

49% - Massive Growth

New Business Models / Airlines

Industry Scenarios

Passenger Price Sensitivity

Low

Low

High

High

Business Model Innovation

Uncharted

Territory

Paranoid

Survive

Back to the

Future

Crash and

Burn

Virtual Airlines

Sustainable Green Terminals

Fast Build, Flexible and Temporary Terminals

Redistribution of Aviation

Profit Pools

Embracing Open InnovationAirport Living Lab

Future

Customers

Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –

Demographics is Driving Economics

1998

448 691

729

5231

4157

739

1030

344

585

Source : United Nations http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm2010 2050

http://www.cogentis.com.au/marketing-strategy-win-new-clients.jpg

http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm

Life Redefined –

Lifespans are Increasing

Under 50’s have 90%

chance of living to 100.

Aubrey de Grey suggests

we could live to 500 or 1000

What are the health,

consumption and resource

implications?

What kind of opportunities

will be created?

Tomorrow’s Traveler - Demographics

• Over 60‘s in developed

economies to rise from 22-

33% from 2009 and 2050.

• In developing world, from 9 to

20%

• Global retirement market

2010-2020 could grow from

$28 - $46 Tn

• Global middle class could rise

from 430M to 1.2 Bn (2000 –

2030)

Source: United Nations Report Warns of Dire Effects of Under population, Fertility Decline,’ by Susan Yoshihara, PhD, March 5th 2010, Life News http://www.lifenews.com/int1479.html http://www.financial-planning.com/news/allianz-retirement-pensions-growth-2668604-1.html

http://www.lifenews.com/int1479.html

http://www.financial-planning.com/news/allianz-retirement-pensions-growth-2668604-1.html













• By 2020, Asian consumers

could account for over 40%

of global middle class

consumption

• By 2030 Asian consumer

spending could hit $32

trillion

• By 2014 female wealth

could reach $18 trillion

• Females could control 70%

of global consumer

spending

Tomorrow’s Traveler –

Spending Patterns

Traveller Mindsets

Too Busy To Care

Complex Lives, Pressurised

Finances

Craving Simplicity

Wealthy and Hard to Please

Buying Behaviour

• Mobile

• Low loyalty

• Multiple searches and

site visits

• Word of mouth critical

• Value conscious –

price, offers, rewards

• Shorter trips

• Shorter notice

Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse

and harder to segment into clearly definable customer groupings

604 Respondents

Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely

I will book the bulk of my travel online in 2015

64%

31%

3% 2%

74% - Will use Social Networks to Research and Find Deals

Technology

Horizons

• Number of mobile subscribers

could rise from 4Bn to 5Bn

2009-2015

• Mobile data traffic to rise 300-

fold by 2015 (Nokia).

• By 2020 the range and nature

of interaction technologies /

customer ‗touch points‘ will

expand dramatically.

• ‗Go nowhere‘ gamers

• Personal genetic profiles

Tomorrow’s Traveler – Technology

Source: U.N report, cited by metamanda http://www.metamanda.com/blog/archives/2009/03/cell-phone-use-at-60-worldwide.html

http://www.metamanda.com/blog/archives/2009/03/cell-phone-use-at-60-worldwide.html











TINA – The Intelligent Airport

http://www.baa.com/

http://www.laingorourke.com/

http://www.boeing.com/phantom/

http://www.red-m.co.uk/

http://www.ericsson.com/uk/

http://www.motorola.com/uk/

http://www.zinwave.com/

http://www.arup.com/

http://www.tycoelectronics.com/

http://www.innovision-group.com/

http://www.ucl.ac.uk/

http://www.cam.ac.uk/

http://www.leeds.ac.uk/

http://www.swan.ac.uk/

http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mba.hobsons.com/usrimages/225317/logo.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.mba.hobsons.com/organisation/605/school_of_business_and_economics_swansea_university/studentProfile&h=150&w=150&sz=7&hl=en&start=1&um=1&tbnid=GMzIRNQC9tfxXM:&tbnh=96&tbnw=96&prev=/images?q=Swansea+University+logo&svnum=10&um=1&hl=en&rlz=1T4RNWN_enGB228GB233

http://intelligentairport.org.uk/

Cloud Computing

Telephony• Voice

• Messaging

• SIM card

• Phonebook

• Ring Tones

• Security

Connectivity• Cellular

• Up to 14 bands

• WLAN/BT

• GPS

• NFC

• FM

Data/

Enterprise• 100Mbps

• Email

• IMS

• Browsing

• VPN

• PIM

• Ecommerce

• Payments

Software• Protocols

• Middleware

• Applications

• User Interface

• Minimize fragmentation

Multimedia• Camera 8-16M

• Camcorder

• 24M Color Display

• Memory (160GB)

• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out

• Games

(50-100M Tps)

• DRM

TMT – Convergence and Immersion

Apps – What I Want, When I Want

Source: Forrester

Next Generation Smart Phones

• Concierge / Schedule

Management

• Check in

• Notifications / Directions

• Route Management

• UGC

• Wallet

• Location Based Offers

• Dynamic Rerouting

• Personal Networking

Personalised Advertising

Holographic Displays

Augmented Reality / Heads Up

http://go2.wordpress.com/?id=725X1342&site=experiencerethink.wordpress.com&url=http://designmind.frogdesign.com/blog/envisioning-your-future-in-2020.html&sref=http://experiencerethink.wordpress.com/2010/09/23/the-future-of-shopping-2020/

AR at Copenhagen Airport

Gesture Interfaces

Touchable Holograms

Interactive Surfaces

Wearable Displays

Ambient Intelligence

Real Time / Predictive Analytics

http://www.lsgskychefs.com/en/home.html

http://www.lsgskychefs.com/en/home.html

3D Printing – True Personalization

Rethinking the Airport

Experience

Live the Customer Journeys and Experiences

Stimulus / Search / Booking

Transport to and from the

Airport

Check in to Flight Departure

Flight Arrival to Airport Exit

Flight Transfer - Arrival to

Departure

Airport Experience

In Flight Experience

Relationship Management

<Plaza aankomst> <Picture>

Sub processKPIScore

Sub processKPIScore

▪ Traffic information

▪ Traffic jams

▪ Entering Plaza

▪ Clarity

▪ Off airport flight information

▪ Services; rental, parking

▪ Arrival at airport by car/train

▪ Accessibility

▪ Parking

▪ Price/Quality LT

▪ Departure from airport by bus/train

▪ Accessibility

▪ Transport from parking to Plaza

▪ Ease of wayfinding

▪ Retrieving car & Leaving airport

41%73%

▪ Leaving Plaza

▪ Clarity

91% / 90% 90%

90% / 80%77% 77%

Mapping Customer Journeys & Experiences

Airport Arrival

Extended Airport?

Check In

Next Gen Qantas Check-In

Security

Are Biometrics the Answer?

Flight Departure

Minimising Journey Times

Arrivals –

Localizing the Experience?

Aircraft Turnaround

Enhancing the Airport Experience

‘Virtual Assistants’

Catering and Lounge Experiences

Services

The Slide@T3

Changi Airport - Singapore

Funding The Future –

From Cabin to Cash Register

Multiple Revenue Streams

Leveraging Customer Insight

Integrated Travel Solutions

Best Price Guarantees

Partner Tie-ins

Pullman Bangkok King Power Hotel

In-flight Duty Free Korean Air - Shop Onboard

Passenger Centric, Context Related

e.g. The Virgin Red Store

Single swipe ‘open tab’

In Terminal / In-Flight Travel Agency

Booking/Boarding Pass Ads / Offers

Daily Social Media Offers e.g. Twitter

Rethinking Airport Retail

Auctions - The $17,739 iPad

Air Sahara/Jetlite

Outsourcing In-flight Duty Free

e.g. BA / Tourvest

So How Can we Respond?

The Journey to 2030

• Continuous research

• Define change roadmaps –

passenger journeys and

experiences, operations and

technology

• Experiment

• Develop uncertainty tolerant

management

Mapping a Path to 2030

Strategic Management Imperatives

Horizon scanning Scenario based planning Anticipation

Open processes Rapid implementation Tomorrow’s workforce

Aviation Next – what does the

timeline of developments look

like for the sector in your region?

Deep Dive on Key Trends / Issues

Be Magnetic

Make Time and Space for Change

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg

Conclusions

• Huge untapped potential

• Technology is a key enabler

• Encourage innovation and

curiosity

• Experiment with business

models

• Work with and for

tomorrow‘s passenger

Thank You

Rohit Talwar

CEO

Fast Future

[email protected]

Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766

Mob +44 (0)7973 405145

Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture

LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar

www.fastfuture.com

www.convention-2020.com

Blog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com

Signup for our newsletters / Download past editions at www.fastfuture.com

Watch a short video of Rohit at http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300

Download the Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation Report at

http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit/beyond-segmentation.html

About Fast Future

91

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Hotels 2020 – Objectives

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http://sites.google.com/site/durbankzncb/home/DBNKZNCB3.jpg?attredirects=0

http://www.seoulwelcome.com/

http://www.abudhabitourism.ae/en

http://www.businesseventssydney.com.au/

Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.

• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation –

addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents

• Author of Designing Your Future

• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global

Future Thinkers

• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy

projects for clients in telecommunications, technology,

pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism, environment, food and

government sectors

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EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG,

M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic,

Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous

international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK,

Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.

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• 50 key trends

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• Published August 2008

• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95

• Email invoice request to

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Designing Your FutureKey Trends, Challenges and Choices

Our ServicesBespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks

Accelerated Scenario Planning, Timelining & Future Mapping

Identification of Opportunities for Innovation and Strategic InvestmentStrategy Creation &

Development of Implementation Roadmaps

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Expert Consultations & Futures Think Tanks

Personal Futuring for Leaders and Leadership Teams

Public Speaking, In-Company Briefings, Seminars and Workshops

Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. :

– Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients

– Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030

– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration

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– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030

Example Clients

http://www.cargill.com/

http://www.chiefexecutive.com/index.htm

http://www.blplaw.com/generic_template.cfm?page=about

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/

http://www.abfoods.com/index.asp

http://www.skyetek.com/Portals/0/logos/Intel Logo.jpg

http://www.bakkavor.is/

http://www.tradedoubler.com/pan/public

http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/38639000/jpg/_38639613_bae300.jpg&imgrefurl=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2652923.stm&h=180&w=300&sz=11&hl=en&start=35&tbnid=oBi2WOV9ndVtyM:&tbnh=70&tbnw=116&prev=/images?q=BAe+systems+logo&start=18&ndsp=18&svnum=10&hl=en&lr=&sa=N

http://www.dhl.co.uk/publish/gb/en.high.html

http://www.bayercropscience.com/

http://www.ibm.com/us/en/

TINA – Key FactsThe network will support:

• 1,000 Fixed and 500 Mobile Video Cameras - 10 Gb/s

• 500 Displays - 10 Gb/s

• 500 Biometric Scanners - 10 Gb/s

• Private and Public Fixed and Wireless LAN - 20 Gb/s

• Cellular services - 10 Gb/s

• TETRA and private radio - 0.5 Gb/s

• Passive RFID - 0.2 Gb/s

• Active locatable RFID - 5 Gb/s

• Aggregate Mean Rate 65.7 Gb/s; assumed Aggregate Peak Rate 100 Gb/s

Background

Notes

Macro

Drivers

Love is in

the Air

Road to

Nowhere

Suspicious

Minds

Dancing in

the Dark

GDP

Growth

India

and

China

8-10%

6-7%

1-2%

Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%

GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan

We need to Prepare for

Alternative Scenarios

Derivatives –

Market Value vs. Global GDP

760700

605

69.814.2 4.33

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Richard Duncan (June

2008)

2010 est Bank of International Settlements

June 2009 est

World GDP US GDP Chinese GDP

US

$ T

rilli

on

Source: BIS, 2009 BIS - http://www.roubini.com/financemarkets-monitor/258502/___swap_tango________a_derivative_regulation_dance__part_12010 - http://www.newsmax.com/deBorchgrave/BankforInternationalSettlements-BIS-derivatives-MerrillLynch/2010/05/11/id/358672

http://www.roubini.com/financemarkets-monitor/258502/___swap_tango________a_derivative_regulation_dance__part_1



http://www.newsmax.com/deBorchgrave/BankforInternationalSettlements-BIS-derivatives-MerrillLynch/2010/05/11/id/358672







Public debt in 2020 (% of GDP)

Source: Deutsche Bank Research ‘Public debt in 2020’ March 2010 http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000255134.pdf

http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000255134.pdf




Economic Power Shifts

GDP US$

The Top 20 in 2025?

Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‗the World in 2050 March 2008 edition

Reorientation of global markets

• Some 647 million air travelers — more than a quarter of the 2.2 billion passengers

who flew worldwide — took to the skies in Asia in 2009, compared to the 638 million

air travelers in North America, hitherto the traditional leader in global aviation.

• By 2013, an additional 217 million travelers are expected to fly within Asia to push the

region‘s aviation market share to about one-third of the world market.

• In the U.S. there are three aircraft seats per year for each of the 300 million people

who live here.

• China‘s population of 1.3 billion is served by only 0.3 seats per person and India‘s 1.1

billion population has only 0.1 seats available per person.

• When Asians reach the stage of traveling as frequently as people in the U.S., that

alone will triple the size of today‘s global aviation industry.

Source: Bay Area Travel Writers ‘Travel Trends: Asia Eclipses America in Aviation Markets — by Lakshman Ratnapala,’ March 2010http://www.batw.org/news/industry-news/travel-trends_mar-2010/

http://www.batw.org/news/industry-news/travel-trends_mar-2010/







Current spending patterns

• Reinforcing the appeal of duty free

savings, 43 percent of all respondents

said they shopped at a duty free store

during their last overseas trip.

• Travelers from Japan (73 percent),

Korea (71 percent) and China (49

percent) were the region‘s most

frequent duty free shoppers while

Korean and Chinese travelers also

made it to the biggest spender list.

Top Asia-Pacific

duty free spenders

Amount US$

Korea 358

China 333

Hong Kong 224

Malaysia 195

India 180

Thailand 178

Japan 164

Australia 153

Singapore 153

New Zealand 134

Taiwan 125

Regional Average 212

Source: China Travel Trends, September 2009 http://www.chinatraveltrends.com/2009/09/16/chinese-travellers-top-list-of-duty-free-spenders-in-asia-pacific/

http://www.chinatraveltrends.com/2009/09/16/chinese-travellers-top-list-of-duty-free-spenders-in-asia-pacific/





















Future regions of multiple stress

Source: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040,’ February 2010http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf

http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf











Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic

http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic

Source: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040,’ February 2010http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf












Climate Change

The Climate Change Challenge

• How fast can CO2 emissions be reduced per unit travel?

• How can we move towards convergence on the most effective way to

reduce aviation climate change impacts?

• How can we best address non-CO2 climate impacts?

• Where are carbon emissions owned?

Source: Henley Centre Headlight Vision ‘Managing the environmental challenges of growth in aviation Draft report of stakeholder event, Cambridge’ October 2006

Travel

Outlook

Multi speed recovery leading to

many types of tourist• The global travel and tourism industry will experience a ―multi-speed‖ recovery taking

up to a further four years to fully recover to pre-global downturn levels, reveals a

report launched on June 16th 2010.

• Euromonitor International‘s Forecast Update – Recovery In Sight? - reveals the global

travel and tourism industry will experience a ―multi-speed‖ recovery kick started by

the developing economies as high unemployment and debt in developed countries

holds back their growth.

• Global international arrivals will not recover to pre-crisis 2008 levels until 2012, while

incoming tourism receipts will not recover until 2013.

• Furthermore, the hotels sector will not fully recover to 2008 levels until 2014.

• The hotel sector in Australasia, Latin America, and Europe will take the longest to

recover.

• Asia is again driving force behind the hotels recovery, due to the continued expansion

of international and local chains.

Source: World Tourism Directory, June 2010 http://www.worldtourismdirectory.com/news/4325/global-travel-industry-to-experience-multi-speed-recovery.html

http://www.worldtourismdirectory.com/news/4325/global-travel-industry-to-experience-multi-speed-recovery.html















Travel in 2023

• A report by KPMG released in April 2008 ranked transport and tourism as the sectors

least well prepared for climate change and among those most commercially exposed

to the physical risks it presents.

• Forum for the Future in its ‗Tourism 2023‘ report of October 2009 partnered with

companies like British Airways, Carnival UK, and Advantage Travel Centres to

analyze the impact our ever-growing ecological footprint will have on travel.

• The four scenarios under which we could progress:

– 1) Boom and Burst

– 2) Divided Disquiet

– 3) Price and Privilege

– 4) Carbon Clampdown

Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf

Boom and Burst

• A booming economy and high disposable incomes have fuelled a growth in travel

worldwide. People travel further, more frequently, and at faster speeds than ever

before. There are many new reasons to go abroad as global political stability and

prospering economies have opened up the world to more commerce and visitors.

• Rapid advances in technology have been crucial, such as the breakthrough in algae-

based fuels. Dramatic improvements in efficiencies have allowed the transport sector

just about to keep pace with new regulations and their impacts, such as the steadily

rising global price of carbon.

• Legally binding carbon targets are being met – but many are asking how long this can

continue. Many destinations are suffering from serious overcrowding. Wilderness is

perhaps the scarcest resource as road, rail, sea and air routes have brought mass

tourism to the last corners of the planet.



Boom and Burst highlights

• Tourists flock to see the ancient shrines and archaeological treasures of Iraq.

• Massive protests spoil the opening of the Mount Everest Theme Park.

• Tourism puts huge strains on infrastructure in popular destinations like New York,

Paris and London. Visitors are herded between attractions with timed tickets.

• High-tech ‗carbon scrubbers‘ installed on the ground ‗clean the air so you can travel‘.

• Overcrowding in popular destinations has led to the rise of glamorous ‗campsites‘,

‗pop up‘ hotels with stackable modules, and floating resorts.

• Fastest growing destinations: the Democratic Republic of Burma, Yemen, Beyond

Botswana Plc (Privatised Special Economic Zone), Somalia, Argentina, Brazil,

Antarctica, Near space voyages, Papua New Guinea, Kazakhstan.



Divided Disquiet

• A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce

resources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. This has

made travelling overseas an unattractive proposition.

• Many destinations were unprepared for the impacts of a changing climate. More

extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased flooding and frequent droughts

have battered some places, while food shortages and malnutrition, malaria, and

conflict over resources like water and oil have wreaked havoc in others.

• Visitors are highly selective in where and when they travel, cramming into a small

number of destinations where overcrowding compounds the problems.

• A breakthrough in affordable telepresence technology has proved surprisingly popular

with businesses that are keen to cut costs. This resulted in drastically reduced

numbers of certain air routes, closing them to many holidaymakers.



Divided Disquiet Highlights

• ‗One flight per year‘ policy for major US company encourages executives to cut costs

with telepresence technologies.

• Tour guides with a military background hired as part of a holiday package for extra

protection abroad.

• Rising sea levels force Government of Maldives to step up relocation plans to India.

•

• Latest ‗hot‘ holiday craze is massive resorts offering golf and skiing across sand

dunes.

• Eiffel Tower auctioned off to a multinational corporation as part of sponsored heritage

plan.

• Fast growing destinations: Norway, Ireland, Latvia, UK, Greenland Doomsday Park,

Canada, Denmark, France, Sweden, The Estonian Army Base Experience.



Price and Privilege

• A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Dwindling supplies

and rising demand from the new economies of Asia have pushed energy prices into a

series of sharp and unpredictable spikes.

• The travel industry worldwide has been badly hit and aviation has shrunk

dramatically. Fleet replacements have been slower than anticipated and the predicted

efficiency gains could not keep pace. There have been mass redundancies across

the travel industry and a period of dramatic consolidation across the world.

• Although a small, elite market continues to fly regularly, the vast majority of people

simply cannot afford the experience. The days of affordable travel are now just a

nostalgic memory.

• People who want to holiday abroad either save up for years and fly overseas or join

the new mass market of overland connections. Pan-European rail, bus and sea

networks offer the most cost-effective means of travel for most people. State-of-the-

art super-hubs provide seamless connections between different parts of the

comfortable and affordable system of overland travel.



Price and Privilege Highlights

• Demonstrators take to streets in cities across the world demanding the ‗right to fly‘.

• Ukraine positions itself as the ‗Gateway to the East‘ with new Kiev bus-rail megahub

plan.

• ‗Absolutely no frills‘ airline sector from some non-EU countries offers standing room

only and no cabin crew.

• Banks offer holiday credit schemes allowing family and friends to save together for

the annual trip.

• Fastest growing destinations: Montenegro, France, Lithuania, Portugal, Germany,

Central Europe Lakelands, SailRail breaks to Greece, Morocco, The Tropical Island

Experience (Jersey), Ukraine.



Carbon Clampdown

• Governments introduce tradable carbon quotas for all households as part bold plans

to tackle climate change. Individual allowances are seen as the fairest way of

allocating the ‗right to pollute‘ equally.

• The public has clamoured for tough action. Environmental impacts are increasingly

felt. Although there has been no great shift in cultural values, support for regulation is

high.

• The economy is more localised, and disposable incomes are low.

• Many holidaymakers are still keen to travel abroad, but perceptions of the purpose

and real costs of travel have changed. Although distance is a key consideration, the

reason for the holiday is crucial: what you are doing is more important than where

you are.

• Ethical travel is a new mass market, and the government encourages this with the

carbon rebate for volunteering whilst abroad.



Carbon Clampdown Highlights

• Major travel firm goes bust after massive boycott coordinated by a popular website

over its environmental policy.

• Red Cross Swarm uses social networks to send volunteers to disaster zones faster

than official agency staff.

• Peer-to-peer holidaying allows people to ‗swap lives‘ with another family and spend a

year in another part of the world.

• Fastest growing destinations: Cornwall, Ukraine, Sweden, Mozambique Special

Volunteer Zone, Lithuania, Northumbria, Cork, France, Slow Boat Community

(registered to Guyana), Liverpool.



What does this mean?

• Fast Company notes that ‗…the

reality of vacationing in 2023 will

probably be a combination of

these scenarios, with high oil

prices, disappearing wilderness,

carbon quotas, and advances in

air travel (i.e. biofuel-powered

planes).‘

Source: Fast Company ‘Tourism 2023 Imagines the Future of Vacations,’ October 2009 http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-schwartz/sustainability/tourism-2023-imagines-future-vacations

http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-schwartz/sustainability/tourism-2023-imagines-future-vacations











Predictions

• Charles Goddard, Asia Pacific Editorial Director, Economist Intelligence

Unit, speaking at the ALTM Ultratravel Forum, said that ‘…China, despite

the crisis, and because of economic stimulus packages, had continued to

grow in the last 18 months by between 8% and 9%. This shift would be

even more dramatic if China became more consumption driven as opposed

to export led, and this was beginning to happen.’

• ‘Asia was the growth market ‘par-excellence’ with 50% of global

consumption being centred in the region in the next 4-5 years. An explosion

in travel would be an offshoot of this phenomenon,’ he said.

Source: Travel Daily News ‘Bullish growth for inbound and outbound travel in Asia Pacific and China,’ June 2010 http://www.traveldailynews.com/pages/show_page/37535-Bullish-growth-for-inbound-and-outbound-travel-in-Asia-Pacific-and-China

http://www.traveldailynews.com/pages/show_page/37535-Bullish-growth-for-inbound-and-outbound-travel-in-Asia-Pacific-and-China

























Future of Travel and Tourism

• 1. Keeping it local. If trends in energy, economy, and environment continue, then

traveling long distances for recreation will become more rare. In order for the resort

community to maintain a market, they will need to cater more to a local clientele. This

is captured in the concept of the 10-kilometer hotel, one whose prime customers

come from the local area for a respite.

• 2. Alternative transport. In 2009 a newspaper in Seattle featured a photo of a local

organic farmer delivering his wares via sailboat to the docks in Seattle. He calls it the

no-oil food. In the travel and tourism industry this kind of move will be and is being

mirrored as people seek out non-motorized experiences like biking through France, or

taking trips by sail. Over the longer term, again depending on how energy,

environment, and economic trends play out, it is likely that tourists will seek out

slower, less energy intensive, even zero-fossil fuel energy experiences.

Source: Futurist ‘Future of Travel and Tourism ,’by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/

http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/









Future of Travel and Tourism

• 3. Destination evolution. This trend is underway, as destination resorts focus on

becoming greener and more sustainable, more local in their attraction, more astute in

their use of information technology for advertising and for management, and more

knowledgeable of market trends via research.

• 4. New whys of travel. It is said that there is graffiti from ancient tourists on the

monuments in Egypt. People have always and will always travel to see new places

and people, even if they have to walk or ride an animal to do so. That is not going to

change. But, one more time depending on how the converging trends play out, we

may see a return to the why of travel being for two primary purposes – to visit family,

and to seek new adventure. Business travel may decline as 3D-net technologies

become robust, and distance travel may decline as economic and environmental

imperatives demand. Local travel may fill the need for reconnecting with yourself and

recharging the batteries. In fact making that a focus of what you offer in the travel and

tourism industry may be one key to the future.

Source: Futurist ‘Future of Travel and Tourism,’ by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/










Future

Customers

Changing European Ethnicity

Preference for Rail over Air

66% - Europe

18% - USA

Trends

• Concierge services are set to make a

rise across the mid market travel

sector according to Euromonitor

International, who released their

results for the 2010 global travel

trends at the World Travel Market in

November 2009

• Kuoni are one company set to offer

customers concierge options. Andrea

Mueller, Communications Manager for

Kuoni said; "Today people are

overwhelmed by information on travel

and tourism services and need more

guidance. Concierge services will play

and important role in helping them

make intelligent choices based on their

individual needs".

Source: World Travel Guide, November 2009 http://www.worldtravelguide.net/news/3551/news/Global-travel-trends-2010.html

http://www.worldtravelguide.net/news/3551/news/Global-travel-trends-2010.html







Simple identity

• The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) plummeted the value of the High Net Worth

population by US $32.8 trillion or 19.5% according to the World Wealth Report (2009)

published by CapGemini and Merrill Lynch, so the rich are less rich.

• Writing in the Harvard Business Review, Paul Flatters and Michael Wilmott argue that

in most developed economies pre GFC, that the precession consumer behaviour was

the product of 15 years of uninterrupted prosperity, driven by growth in real levels of

disposal incomes, low inflation, stable employment and booming property prices.

• As such, new consumer appetites emerged in which the consumer could afford to be

curious about gadgets and technology, in which tourists shelled out for enriching and

fun experiences on exotic locations. Where they could afford several holidays a year

and rent premium experiences such as hiring a Ferrari for the weekend in exotic

locations like Japan.

• The GFC changed that, propelling tourist trends into slowdown, halting or even

reserving the trajectory of growth in world tourism.

Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009 http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php

Simple identity

• So, is this a sample of the future, an era of the pension crisis, scarcity of oil, inflation

and falling levels of disposal income in which tourism expenditure falls year on year?

• If so, what will the future tourist look like? Rather than having a fluid identity it will be

more akin to simplicity.

• During an economic slowdown, tourists tend to travel less, stay nearer home

(increase in domestic tourism) and seek simplicity such

as exploreworldwide.com value based holidays focusing on basic facilities, meeting

locals, lots of free time and cheap in exotic locations throughout the world. This trend

is accelerated in a scenario of falling incomes as a simple and functional product that

will suffice. A simple identity means that offering advice becomes extremely

important, whether its website's farecast.com‘s ,which advises travellers of the

optimal time to purchase an airline ticket or price comparison technologies which are

found on many online booking services.



Simple identity

• Research by the Trajectory Group highlights that affluent consumers have revealed

mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption. Many desire a wholesome and

less wasteful life. As such, there is a desire to get back to nature, something that is

tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple (Yeoman 2008). As a consequence, the

desire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelerates. An example of

simple luxury, are tree house hotels which offer a unique experience in a natural

setting. A new experience which is not seen as conspicuous consumption, but overtly

inconspicuous.

• In a simple identity, ethical consumption declines as paying a premium for a

Starbucks coffee falls by the wayside, even if they use organic coffee which supports

children in a third world country. From a tourism perspective, many of the ethical

tourism projects in third world countries such as Africa and India which depend on

independent travellers will suffer.



Simple identity

• Tourists also have become canny at searching for bargains which economists call

mercurial consumption, whether it is using price comparison software, or grabbing

last minute offers from websites such as grabaseat.co.nz which offer last minute air

travel deals to New Zealand consumers, or 5pm.co.uk which offers diners the chance

of discounted meals after 5pm that evening. Technology and social media network

enabling purchasing strategies, further accelerate this trend of mercurial

consumption.

• Attitudes to travel also change, as tourism has to compete with other forms of leisure

expenditure, whether it is the latest technology gadgets or virtual holidays. There is a

generation of Japan youth who prefer their X-Box than climbing Mt Fuji. The desire

for new experiences is more about insperience, where technology provides a better

experience than in which consumers desire to bring top level experiences into their

domestic domain.

• A simple identity is all about simplicity seeking, thrift, green yet mercurial tourists will

hold tourism business and brands accountable. In a world of scarcity of resources

this scenario becomes the norm.



Market Pain Points

Market Pain Points

• Research on passenger dissatisfaction reflects the obvious issues that

make air travel difficult. Three main areas represent the majority of

passenger complaints: service disruptions, long check-in lines and baggage

issues. Through the adoption of new communication techniques and

internal systems that take advantage of advanced technology and shared

information, airlines and airports can improve their delivery of services

focusing on these three primary passenger pain points.

• Airlines and airports are challenged with updating their operational systems

to eliminate unnecessary manual step whilst interconnecting existing

information silos to better manage the entire passenger experience.

Integration between Departure Control Systems (DCS), Passenger Service

Systems (PSS), Baggage Reconciliation Systems (BRS), and airport

services can provide improved passenger processing. Delivering services

on advanced mobile devices will help all entities be more efficient and

operate with lower costs.

Source: Amadeus, 2011 http://www.amadeus.com/airlineIT/navigating-the-airport-of-tomorrow/docs/Amadeus-Navigating-the-Airport-Of-Tomorrow-2011-EN.pdf

http://www.amadeus.com/airlineIT/navigating-the-airport-of-tomorrow/docs/Amadeus-Navigating-the-Airport-Of-Tomorrow-2011-EN.pdf























Market Pain Points

What Passengers Want

• As a result of social media-inspired discussion, and with the assistance of

London City Airport‘s sales director, Bernard A. Lavelle, Future Travel

Experience reveals the views of passengers themselves on what they really

want from the airport of the future.

• As outlined in the chart, the aspect that can most improve the passenger

experience on the ground is high-quality signage, communications and staff,

with almost a third of all respondents highlighting this as a vital passenger

requirement.

• The second most common request was free Wi-Fi in the terminal building,

while improved facilities, processing and queues, and an enhanced security

process are also prominent on the passenger wish list. Airport layout was

also identified as an area that can make a telling difference to the overall

passenger experience.

Source: Future Travel Experience, May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/

http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/









What Passengers Want

Source: Future Travel Experience , May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/











Emerging

Customers

Tracking the rise of the middle class across the BRICs and N-11:

Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 in

PPP terms (Goldman Sachs)

2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)

Brazil 46 52 59 57

Russia 71 71 56 29

India 6 16 46 89

China 37 59 75 53

Korea 67 46 23 7

Bangladesh 0 1 5 38

Egypt 39 57 84 82

Indonesia 16 29 57 87

Iran 70 77 73 41

Mexico 61 65 65 49

Nigeria 6 9 18 42

Pakistan 9 13 22 49

Philippines 15 23 40 69

Turkey 79 81 70 35

Vietnam 7 21 51 84

Source: Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf









Primed for More Travel

Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010 http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf






Source: Airbus 2009 http://www.airbus.com/en/gmf2009/appli.htm?onglet=&page=

http://www.airbus.com/en/gmf2009/appli.htm?onglet=&page=

Online bookings in Asia-Pacific,

2008 and 2011

2008 2011

Australia / New Zealand $6.2B $10.9B

China $6.9B $13B

India $3.1B $5.5B

Japan $11.5B $17.7B

Source: PhocusWright cited by Travel Weekly ‘China, India will lead region's online bookings boom’ January 2010 http://www.travelweekly.com/article3_ektid209470.aspx

Source: PhoCusWright

http://www.travelweekly.com/article3_ektid209470.aspx

China consumer report

• By the year 2020, China will have a population of more than 1.4 billion people that will

make up a significant portion in the world's consumer market.

• The annual disposable income of Chinese consumers is forecasted to increase to

65.4 billion Yuan (US$9.57 billion) by 2020 compared with 15 billion Yuan (US$2.19)

in 2008.

• The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the country would be

considered a moderately affluent society by 2020, if development trends since the

year 2000 continue. The estimate was made taking into account progress in the fields

of the economy, social harmony, quality of life, democracy and law enforcement,

culture and education, as well as resources and the environment.

• Zheng Xinli, Vice-Minister of the Communist Party's central policy research office,

said that taking price changes into account, 55% of the population will be middle

class by 2020, with 78% of city dwellers and 30% of those in rural areas reaching that

status.

• Middle class is currently defined as having an annual household income of between

RMB60,000 (US$8,700) and RMB200,000 (US$29,215). In 2008 prices, the annual

disposable income per household will be RMB98,956 (US$14,900) in 2020.

Source: Euromonitor 2009 http://www.euromonitor.com/Chinese_consumers_in_2020_A_look_into_the_future

http://www.euromonitor.com/Chinese_consumers_in_2020_A_look_into_the_future

China and India entering era of travel

• Dun Jidong, spokesman for the China Travel Service notes that GDP per capita has

hit $3,000 in China, ‗…a level that industry experts agree sends a signal that the

country is entering a stage of explosive growth in travel consumption.‘ (1)

Source: (1) China Daily January 2010 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/15/content_9323567.htm

2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)

Brazil 46 52 59 57

Russia 71 71 56 29

India 6 16 46 89

China 37 59 75 53

Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 (PPP terms) (2)

Source (2): Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/15/content_9323567.htm












Source: Goldman Sachs ‘Is this the ‘BRICs Decade’?’ May 2010 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade-doc.pdf

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade-doc.pdf





Aviation

Industry

Outlook

International Passengers in 2014

Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014 http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf

http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example - Projected Top 10 International Markets in 2014.pdf




Freight in 2014

Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014 http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf





Aviation in 2029

Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010 http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf







Future Demand

• Passenger air traffic is forecast to double by 2030 as 12 billion of us take to

the skies. So what will the massive airports of the future look like?

• One theory being discussed is that the future city will be an ―aerotropolis‖,

with the airport at its heart rather than stationed far away from the centre –

important if the city is to connect effectively to the global economy. In much

of the western world, airports were developed years ago, when air travel

was a luxury form of transport for the privileged. Now, of course, it‘s a mode

of mass traffic, requiring different capacity solutions.

• Songdo, South Korea, is an example of a city built from scratch at a cost of

$40 billion with an airport in the centre.

• Dubai is rapidly expanding its airport for A380 traffic, where first-class

passengers on the building‘s upper level will be able to transfer direct to the

upper level of the A380 aircraft.

Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future

http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future



















Future Demand

• Nearby in Dubai, another gigantic airport, Al-Maktoum International, will

eventually have five runways and enough capacity to make it double the

size of the biggest airport around today. The first runway is already

operational for cargo and passengers will be able to fly there by the end of

2011.

• But developers are wary of building a future airport that is too big, creating

long distances for passengers to walk between flights and concerns over

the logistics and security of having large numbers of people crammed

together. The key to this is to arrange connecting transport links such as

trains or cars to be as close as possible to the plane.

• In the Middle East there seems to be an airport capacity race. In Europe, it‘s

the contrary; it is extremely difficult for many airports to develop enough

capacity to handle the forthcoming explosion in air travel. Projects like Berlin

Brandenburg Airport, due to open in 2012, are few and far between. China,

by contrast, plans to build 78 new airports by 2020. In Europe, there are

plans for five new airports by 2030.

Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future




















IATA Launches Vision 2050

• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on industry leaders

to look beyond the crisis that buffeted the air transport industry over the last

decade and to strategically define a sustainable future.

• Giovanni Bisignani, IATA‘s Director General and CEO, outlined his vision for

aviation in 2050. ―We will be very near to zero accidents. We will emit half

the carbon. We will have eliminated queues with integrated systems

ensuring security as we process more passengers. We will operate with

almost no delays in globally united skies. We will share costs and profits

equitably across the value chain. We will be a consolidated industry of a

dozen global brands supported by regional and niche players. And we will

deliver value to investors.‖

Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx








• ―In just over a decade, I can see $100 billion in industry profits on revenues

of $1 trillion. As we move towards 2050, this 10% margin will become even

more robust. This is not just a crazy dream. Before the recession, at least a

dozen IATA members already had 10% margins. We must make this a

much broader reality. Change in all areas is possible. This vision—including

sustainable profitability—can be our future,‖ said Bisignani.

• Bisignani‘s vision for 2050 rests on four cornerstones of change:

– Profitability

– Infrastructure

– Powering the industry

– Customer










• Profitability: ―Efficiency gains never make it to the bottom line because

airlines are deprived of the commercial freedom to operate their businesses

like a normal business. Our poor profitability makes every shock a fight for

survival,‖ said Bisignani. He laid the blame on the industry‘s hyper

fragmentation with 1061 airlines as a result of the bilateral system which

regulates the global aviation industry. The restrictions on international

capital prevent consolidation across borders. ―The restrictions of the

bilateral system are a dam that holds us back. It is time for that dam to

burst. Governments must act responsibly to ensure safety, security, and a

level playing field. And airlines need the freedom to build efficiencies across

borders, better serve their customers, and achieve sustainable profits to

fund growth and innovation,‖ said Bisignani.










• Infrastructure: ―Infrastructure must be reshaped around the needs of

airlines—the core of the industry‘s value chain. Airports should compete for

airline business based on efficiency. Commercial revenues will drive their

business. I can see airports paying airlines to bring shoppers and airport

revenues funding the air traffic management system,‖ said Bisignani.

• Air traffic management must also change. ―I can see ten global air

navigation service providers (ANSPs) replacing the current 180 at half the

cost,‖ said Bisignani. The Single European Sky (SES) would be the first of

the ten global ANSPs. ―But we need real leadership to replace the

uncoordinated bureaucratic mess that Europe is today,‖ said Bisignani,

pleading for a date to achieve the $6.5 billion (EUR 5 billion) cost savings

that the SES promises. ―After 20 years of waiting, we are fed up. Heads of

governments must set a date and deliver,‖ said Bisignani.










• Powering the Industry: ―Today‘s jet fuel cannot sustain air transport in the

long-term. We must find a sustainable alternative and our most promising

opportunity is bio fuels, which have the potential to reduce our carbon

footprint by up to 80%,‖ said Bisignani. After successful testing by airlines,

certification is expected within a year. Bisignani urged greater support from

governments. ―Too often governments are only committed to environment

when it means grabbing cash. Governments should be investing in biofuels

and green technologies. Local production with jatropha, camelina, algae, or

even urban waste will open up economic opportunities in virtually any

location. Not only will this secure a future power source for our industry, this

will also break the tyranny of oil and drive economic development in all parts

of the world.









IATA Launches Vision 2050• The Customer: ―The customer is at the center of our future vision. By

2050, we will have 16 billion travelers and handle 400 million tonnes of

cargo. In just a couple of decades, we will see the middle class nearly triple

from the 1.3 billion today to 3.5 billion people—a quarter of which will be in

India and China. Accommodating that growth efficiently will be a challenge

for all parts of the value chain—airports, air navigation service providers,

manufacturers and governments. The solution must be strategic and

aligned,‖ said Bisignani.

• Bisignani noted that the air transport industry must engage its 2.4 billion

passengers to change government‘s ―over-regulate and under-appreciate‖

attitude. ―To turn our customers into industry activists, we must improve the

value proposition of price, speed, and quality. We have reduced the price of

flying by 40% since deregulation. But as we made travel more accessible,

speed and quality suffered. The infrastructure has not kept pace, resulting in

delays both in the air and on the ground. New security procedures created

new hassles. Our challenge is to gain the support of customers in

demanding change from the governments,‖ said Bisignani.









EUROCONTROL: Long Term

Forecast• Future air traffic will be limited by capacity at the airports, 0.7-5.0 million

flights will not be accommodated in 2030, 5%-19% of the demand. The

congestion is now lower than in the forecast two years ago. The recent drop

in traffic has given the system some extra years to react and adapt but once

the limits are reached the number of unaccommodated flights increases

quickly. Congested airports create pressure on the flow of operations in the

network and will exacerbate delays.

• Even with airport capacity restrictions airports will grow. In 2030, there will

be 13-34 airports as big as the top 7 are now. Some of the faster growing

East-European airports will join the top 25. European hubs will be faced with

competition from hubs outside Europe, primarily in the Middle-East.

Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf

http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf







EUROCONTROL: Long Term Forecast

Source: Eurocontrol, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf









EUROCONTROL: Long Term Forecast









Visions of

Tomorrow’s

Airport

Exploring the Airport of 2030

• The importance of generating non-aeronautical revenue streams has also

had a major impact on the recent developments in the aviation sector, and

Alan Lamond, aviation director, Pascall + Watson Architects, explained that

this will continue to impact on future airport models. He said: ―We are

seeing increased commercialisation of airports and a realisation that you

have to exploit the opportunities presented, and this is done in Western

airports through very intensive retailing. What is increasingly becoming clear

is that, for businesses, there‘s a distinct commercial advantage in being

based near an international airport. This means that the space around the

airport becomes far more valuable.‖

Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/

http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/











Siemens Airport Lab

• Inside Siemens airy, 90,000-square-foot glass and steel structure in

Germany is an entire infrastructure of an airport, minus only the planes,

runways and control tower.

• Nearly every aspect of airport operations is tested and developed here, from

high-tech baggage handling and fleet-management systems to wireless

passenger check-in and 3-D security.

• The airport center, built in 2005, houses real-time, check-in counters, a

parking guidance system, a control center and a luggage conveyor with belt

and tray conveyors stretching more than 6,000 feet. The baggage system

can handle 30 million pieces of luggage per year. (In Germany, only Munich

and Frankfurt airports have larger systems.)

• On the passenger side of the terminal, a prototype system is being fine-

tuned that would allow travelers to check in using only their mobile phones.

Once a passenger makes a phone call to check in, the system then sends

back a bar code that displays on the mobile phones screen. Special readers

at the airport then scan and print out boarding passes.

Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236

http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236










Siemens Airport Lab

• Also being tested in the lab are new fingerprint and facial-recognition

systems as Siemens targets the ever-expanding need for better security at

airports everywhere.

• Iris scans, fingerprint-based IDs and 3-D face digitization are all being

tested here as part of the company's development of cutting-edge

recognition and security systems.

• One area developed by Siemens that is already being employed at airports

from Seoul to Denver is a baggage system that employs radio-frequency

identification or RFID technology.

• The RFID tags are applied directly to baggage and are a much more

efficient way of identification and tracking luggage using radio waves.

• More than 3.1 million missing baggage reports were filed in the United

States alone in 2009, according to the Air Travel Consumer Report

produced by the U.S. Department of Transportation.












Siemens Airport Lab

• Siemens says the radio wave technology will eventually replace bar-code

tracking systems now employed at many airports because it allows bags to

be instantly updated with changes to a passengers flight or security status.

That should drastically lower the risk of the dreaded lost luggage nightmare.

• From check-in to loading on an aircraft it allows more useful data to travel

along with the bag.

• Airport systems make up about 2 percent of the company's $100.7 billion

annual revenue. But that number is expected to rise as the need for better

airport technology surges along with the number of air travelers.












Visions of the Future

• EADS Innovation Works (IW), the corporate network of research centres of

EADS, and Altran, an international advanced engineering and innovation

consulting group, are jointly working on projects supporting the long-term

evolution of the air transport industry.

• The goal of a recent study was to create revolutionary airport concepts.

EADS IW and Altran organised workshops with representatives of airlines,

airports, air traffic management and aircraft manufacturers as well as

representatives of other transport sectors.

• It was recognised that, for short and medium flights, future passengers'

experience will play a significant role in the competition between aviation

and high-speed rail transport.

• This research contributes to the goals set forth in the European

Commission's report 'Flightpath 2050 - Europe's Vision for Aviation', whose

target is for 90% of travellers in Europe to be able to complete their journey,

door to door, within four hours.

Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675

Visions of the Future• Intermodal transfers will be seamless and final destinations are to be reached

smoothly, predictably and on time while accommodating the increasing

demand for air travel. 'These concepts put passengers at the heart of the air

transport system. The result is a passenger-friendly experience and lean

processes which we have labeled 'Friend- Lean Airport of the Future',' said

Guy Gallic, head of the Technical Capability Centre 'Innovative Concepts and

Scenarios' at EADS IW. 'In future, we will speak not only about infrastructure

but about an 'extended door-to door experience'.

• The airport terminal will become a lean step in the journey towards co-modal

and connected travel,' explained Sebastien Renouard, Executive Director

AeroSpace & Defence International at Altran.

• On an average day in 2010, 6.5 million passengers flew an average of

2,000km on one of 14,000 commercial jets.

• By 2050, the number of passengers per day will increase to roughly 44 million

globally. Beyond 2040, the study aimed to find revolutionary airport concepts

capable of handling 25-100 million passengers per year.



Eye to the Sky


• The following three concept from EADSs were selected and elaborated in

more detail.

• The 'Eye to the Sky' concept.

• The aircraft traffic area is located above the terminals, while the flow of

passengers through the terminals to their planes is vertical. From arriving at

the airport to reaching their seats on the plane, passengers use spiral

ramps that link every level of the airport. This concept focuses not only on

infrastructural design but also on solutions for guiding passengers through

an augmented reality information system. A mobile device would connect to

the airport network and act as a portable personal guide to help people find

their way at the airport. Lean security systems based on new technologies

would also be embedded.




• The 'Passenger Airport Shuttles (PAS)' concept.

• With a predicted time of at most seven minutes to get from anywhere in the

airport to any Skygate, passengers can choose to spend more time at the

airport's central terminal facilities or they can arrive at the airport less than

10 minutes before departure and still catch their flight.

• In this decentralised approach, passengers are moved in Passenger Airport

Shuttle vehicles which are guided by an automated central airport control

system. An identification function ensures that passengers and their travel

data are recognised by the control system as soon as they board, and the

vehicle then offers them a transportation and information service dedicated

to their specific needs. Aircraft will be docked to a 'Skygate', a minimal

building that forms the interface between the aircraft and the PAS. Baggage

will be handled at the Skygate, reducing the baggage deposition and

retrieval times to a minimum.




• The 'Extended Airport' concept

• The Extended Airport concept addresses the vision of providing a door-to-

door travel service in the literal sense by extending the transportation

service so that passengers (or just their luggage) are picked up at their

home or office. In this vision, air transport and airports are fully integrated

with other transport modes. The proper competition and collaboration

between modes of transport are ensured by a transport planner on the user

interface where passengers can plan their trips. It will take many revolutions

in the air transport sector to create solutions that deliver on the ambitious

objectives set forth by the European Commission's FlightPath 2050.



User Friendly Terminals

• Munich Airport‘s new InfoGates allow passengers to obtain quick and

detailed information to help them navigate around the terminal.

• Passengers using the InfoGate can simply push a button, which connects

them immediately to an information service representative via

videoconference.

• Six InfoGates are already operational in the public and non-public areas of

the airport, and 17 Interactive InfoGates are positioned at key crossroads

throughout the terminals.

• These consist of touch-screens mounted on pillars, offering a full range of

information on services, shopping and dining at the airport.

Source: Future Travel Experience, June 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/06/munich-airports-infogates-offer-improved-wayfinding/

http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/06/munich-airports-infogates-offer-improved-wayfinding/











Future of Airports

• David Holm, Principal Architect, Woodhead, explained that retail,

commercial, advertising and other forms of revenue generation will be

crucial within the development of terminals of the future. Not only do these

forms of commerce provide funding incomes, they also play a key role in

crafting the unique character of the place and in enhancing the ―total

journey experience‖. ―It is our design view that retail and commercial

developments and strategies must be incorporated at the earliest phases of

project planning. In this way, the form of a new project is designed from the

inside out in harmony with the outside in pressure applied by the equally

crucial requirements of exterior aircraft planning,‖ he said.

• At the Check-In 2010 Conference in Las Vegas, Holm referred to four key

themes:

Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/

http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/













Future of Airports

• Urban Catalyst – ―Innovative civic and transport leaders are now seeing

airports and their surrounding and supporting infrastructure, often referred

to as airport cities, as the catalysts of urban growth and often regeneration;

a key part of the ‗c21st polycity concept‘.‖

• Civic Buildings – ―The contemporary airport within the ‗c21st polycity‘ is

today‘s crossroads celebrating trade and community gathering. As such the

urban structure and the built forms of the airport must stand as civic

buildings respected by the community and designed with a sense of

community, flexibility and longevity.‖















Future of Airports

• Sense of Place – ―Our design projects endeavour to make the subtle

connection between context, place making and built form in order to weave

our built form into the community within which it exists.‖

• Total Journey Experience – ―The transport node, whether it be a domestic

or international airport or multi-modal station, has existed as an evolutionary

control at the edges of regions or borders. As such the node has performed

a variety of functions, ranging from service industries to authority

procedures. This variety of stakeholders has many functions to address,

though all conjoined represent the overall brand and experience of the

transport node.‖

• It appears clear that a consistent approach towards design provides the

passenger with a coherent total journey experience throughout their

incoming and outgoing experiences as a traveller.















Exploring the Airport of 2030

• The impact of a master plan, which often outlines a blueprint for the airport

with a vision for the next two decades or more, is the most integral part of

the planning process and can often provide an idea of how airports will

continue to develop in the mid-to-long-term.

• Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, Fentress Architects, said:

―With master plans you almost need a crystal ball. You have to design for

flexibility, which can accommodate for future needs even though you don‘t

know what these will be. Flexibility really is key and I think that because of

this, you will see more airports with column-free buildings. At LAX we‘ve

designed large, column-free buildings so that we‘re completely flexible for

any future developments. This is even something that you can see in the

design of Denver International Airport, which has just celebrated its 15th

birthday.‖













The Intelligent Networked Airport

• A passenger-sensing, self-organising unified network to track the location of every

passenger and bag in the terminal will feature in future airports.

• It‘s not much fun sitting in an airport waiting for a plane. But might it be less of a

chore if you could download your in-flight films in the departure lounge? Might you

even pay for the service? If you find that airport bars usually serve the best antidotes

to tedium, would you be glad to know that a nearby display can detect your presence,

prompt you when your gate number changes and provide clear directions to it at

drinking-up-and-boarding time?

• It‘s being developed by scientists from the University of Cambridge, University

College London, and the University of Leeds. The idea is to tidy up the tangle of wired

and wireless networks used in most modern airports by installing a single

infrastructure that can handle GSM, 3G, Wi-Fi and RFID communications, as well as

locating every person and piece of baggage in the building.

Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html

Background Note

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html




• TINA - The intelligent networked airport

• ―For instance, can we solve problems like bags being in one place but the passenger

not showing up, or a passenger being on an airplane and not knowing where their

bags are?‖ asks Jon Crowcroft, Marconi professor of communications systems at the

Cambridge University Computer Laboratory.

• Organising a building‘s network infrastructure in this way could also create

opportunities for airport operators to generate money.

• ―In an airport environment, where in-building communications systems [such as Wi-

Fi] are often used to generate revenue for the airport operator, the adoption of such a

technology could lead to some interesting innovation with regard to the commercial

models under which airports operate,‖ says Justin Trevan, a consultant at the

communications division of Arup - an engineering consultancy well known for its work

on airports, including Heathrow‘s Terminal 5 and Dubai International Airport.


Background Note





• To track people and assets, researchers are looking at both active and passive RFID

tags, locating the active tags by comparing the different time delays of the transmitted

signals as they arrive at neighbouring antenna units, which are typically positioned

tens of metres apart.

• Being battery-powered and expensive, active RFID tags would only be suitable where

they could be re-used and recharged, such as when issued to members of staff or

applied to airport vehicles. In contrast, passive RFID tags could be printed cheaply on

disposable paper boarding cards or luggage labels, given to every passenger and

attached to each of their bags. In Hong Kong airport, luggage is already labelled with

bar-coded passive RFID tags that are read (by conventional short-range means) with

two antennas placed either side of the luggage conveyer belt.


Background Note





• Zinwave application

• A ‗long-range‘ passive RFID sensing scheme is novel and technically difficult.

• However, Sithamparanathan Sabesan, Michael Crisp, Richard Penty and Ian White at

the University of Cambridge‘s department of engineering, have found a way to reduce

the fading and improve the accuracy of RSSI techniques, using an optimised Zinwave

radio-over-fibre hub with multiple antennas.

• ―The first challenge was getting the range up to 20m. The second, which we‘re still

working on, is the resolution at that range. We‘ve got the location accuracy down to

around 2m, but we‘d like to do better,‖ said Professor White, head of photonics

research in the electrical division of the department of engineering at Cambridge.

• Tracking every single passenger anywhere in the building all the time may not be

feasible with passive RFID tags. But the technology could indicate if a passenger has

moved from one space to another, maybe from a lounge to a bar, which is enough to

target a message to a nearby display, page them, or send someone to find them.


Background Note





• Network architecture specifications

• The basic TINA network architecture is being designed to support a terminal with

typically 1,000 fixed and 500 mobile video cameras (demanding 10Gbit/s of

bandwidth); 500 displays (10Gbit/s); 500 biometric scanners (10Gbit/s); private and

public fixed and wireless LAN (20Gbit/s); cellular services (10Gbit/s); TETRA and

private radio (500Mbit/s); as well as passive RFID (300Gbit/s) and active RFID

(5Gbit/s). These figures, which include projections for future demand, are based on

input from BAA and other companies involved with the network installations in

Heathrow Terminals 4 and 5.

• The software tool can model and simulate passenger flow, radio propagation delays,

optimum antenna position, and bandwidth requirements to give a top-down picture of

how the network might perform under various circumstances.

• In this way, designers can better understand how the flow of people in indoor spaces,

traffic demands and energy consumption constraints might influence different

architectures.


Background Note




Flexible Terminals

Flexible Terminals

• An Austrian company, TMT, has installed a mobile passenger terminal

at Switzerland‘s Geneva Airport. It is designed as a flexible structure, to

expand and contract airport capacity, depending on demand. With a

growing number of companies providing such facilities – driven by the

increasing seasonality of flight operations and the continuing lack of

available finance – is the future going to be "temporary and mobile"? Could

this be the ultimate low-cost terminal?

• TMT‘s management stated the terminal can be installed and dismantled

within a week.

Source: Centre for Aviation, February 2011 http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2011/02/14/upwardly-mobile--airport-terminals-that-match-the-seasonal-nature-of-the-airline-business/page1

http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2011/02/14/upwardly-mobile--airport-terminals-that-match-the-seasonal-nature-of-the-airline-business/page1


























Flexible Terminals

• Thomas Melcher, managing director and inventor of TMT The Mobile

Terminal - Melcher has ambitious plans for TMT The Mobile Terminal,

particularly in emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America.

―In the next three years, we are targeting 20 to 25 mobile terminals

worldwide,‖ he said.

• Indeed, the effectiveness of the terminal solution during major events in an

airport‘s catchment area means discussions are already underway with the

Russian market with regards to the 2014 Winter Olympics, which take place

in Sochi, and the 2012 European Football Championships in Poland and

Ukraine. TMT The Mobile Terminal is also exploring the possibility of renting

its terminal solutions for short-term periods.

Source: Airport Business, April 2011 http://www.airport-business.com/2011/04/first-tmt-the-mobile-terminal-opened-at-geneva-airport/

http://www.airport-business.com/2011/04/first-tmt-the-mobile-terminal-opened-at-geneva-airport/



















The ‘Airport City’

• This geographical advantage has led to the rapid rise of the ‗airport city‘

and, according to Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, Fentress

Architects, this is likely to become an increasing trend in years to come.

• ―I think you will see more of the ‗airport city‘,‖ he explained. ―In the Middle

East, you see a tremendous surge in passenger numbers and there is then

a need for hotels and other services and this is something that we may see

elsewhere in the next 20 years. Airports will become more multi-modal and

the construction of office buildings, conference buildings, air freight facilities,

and even the likes of beauty salons within the actual airport are things that

are already becoming more widespread.‖

• With environmental sustainability now firmly established toward the very top

of the list of priorities within the field of airport architecture, the need to

explore the use of ‗green‘ energy is more evident than ever before.













Airport Cities: Manchester

Airport Cities: Manchester

• More than 10,000 jobs could be created around Manchester Airport when it

is turned into a ‗mini city‘.

• The £400m Airport City project was given the green light after the

government named it as one of its first Enterprise Zones.

• It is one of 21 designated areas nationwide that will offer tax breaks for

businesses, simplified planning rules and super-fast broadband as part of

plans to grow local economies and jobs by removing barriers for new

companies.

• Money raised from discounted business rates in the area will be available to

re-invest in Greater Manchester‘s redevelopment.

• Airport bosses say the Enterprise Zone status means they can start

immediately on Airport City, which is expected to bring 10,500 full time jobs

– 13,000 in total – over the next 10 to 15 years. A 60-acre site, centred

around Manchester Business Park to the north of the airport, will introduce

new offices, hotels, shops and manufacturing space.

Source: Manchester Evening News, March 2011 http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1416306_manchester-airport-enterprise-zone-will-generate-mini-city-with-10500-jobs

http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1416306_manchester-airport-enterprise-zone-will-generate-mini-city-with-10500-jobs





















Airlines and

Aircraft

Futures

Impact of Consolidation

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_zjtdEB0M1JI/STmWpOA6mBI/AAAAAAAACEQ/bGffo8Tq6Jk/s1600-h/Austrian-LufthansaCEOs.jpg

• The airline industry continues its consolidation trend: in

Europe things started with the Air France-KLM merger in

2004, soon followed by Lufthansa-Swiss.

• The action continues with SN Brussels, BMI and Austrian

taken over by Lufthansa, Air France-KLM buying a

significant stake in Alitalia and getting full control of the

Dutch leisure and cargo airline Martinair and FlyVLM.

• British Airways and Iberia have completed a merger.

• Airlines are likely to continue consolidating aligning their

products for their passengers: pricing, loyalty programs,

joint check-in areas.

Impact of Consolidation

Shifting the Goalposts


• Booz suggests ,that ‗…airlines must take an objective, data-driven look at

their business models and cost structures, challenge existing assumptions,

and provide CEOs and program managers with the analysis they need to

take decisive, innovative, and informed action.

• One measurement whose validity should be actively questioned is the

ubiquitous metric of the airline industry, cost per available seat mile

(CASM). Although it is an interesting data point, CASM is not the most

relevant gauge for determining the success of an airline‘s business model

because it focuses solely on the cost of supply and not on demand. We

believe that a better metric would be cost per passenger seat mile, which

would calculate the expense of operating the seats that travelers are

actually willing to purchase.

Source: Booz & Co, 2008 http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Future_of_Green_Aviation.pdf

http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Future_of_Green_Aviation.pdf


• Examining operating costs through the prism of demand, and augmenting

that data with CASM, would reveal the routes and schedules, types of

travelers, and overall markets worth serving, as well as what types of

aircraft to put into service.

• One result of this approach could very well be a rethinking of the hub-and-

spoke business model, a sharp rejection of the status quo that could

produce vastly improved results for the industry.

Source: Booz & Co, 2008 http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Future_of_Green_Aviation.pdf

http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Future_of_Green_Aviation.pdf

What if…?

• The aviation industry now uses 5 million barrels of jet fuel every day.

• The Air Transport Action Group predicts the biofuel share for aviation will be

15% in 2020, and 30% in 2030.

• If this is either optimistic or insufficient, the industry could be in trouble.

Source: Associated Content: Is there a future after peak oil? May 2010 http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/3018604/aviation_after_peak_oil_is_there_a.html?cat=15

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/3018604/aviation_after_peak_oil_is_there_a.html?cat=15

Weight Reduction – a Core Priority

Future Scenarios for the

European Airline Industry (2015)

Source: Leipzig Graduate School of Management: Center for Scenario Planning ‘Future Scenarios for the European Airline Industry.’ 2010

Future Scenarios for the European Airline Industry (2015)

• Network Fortress describes a future, in which the European network carriers

have regained a strong competitive position in both the long-haul and the

intra-European market. The recession of 2008 and 2009 was followed by a

quick economic recovery, which increased corporate travel budgets again in

2012. In turn, the demand for low-cost travel stagnated in favor of high

quality and convenient travel, which led to growth in the more profitable

business and first class segments. The growing long-haul market

connecting Europe with the booming ASEAN region and China is dominated

by European airlines, which can operate from a largely protected European

market to which competition from Asia and the Middle East had only limited

access to due to restrictive traffic rights legislation.



• Europe under Siege describes a world in which Asian and Middle Eastern

competitors dominate the future of European network carriers. Despite

growing business travel based on solid economic growth in Europe, the

industry faces severe competition, also in its home market. However, low-

cost carrier have not been able to continue their growth seen in the first

decade of the new millennium as customers became increasingly aware of

the total cost of flying low-cost. "New World", a new alliance by Middle

Eastern and Asian airlines was formed in 2012 focusing on capturing the

growing demand for high quality air travel around the world. The alliance

also partners with a major European airline to gain easier access to the

attractive European market. With their new fleet and superior service

offering, the alliance has quickly gained market share and is expected to

continue its growth.



• Decline of Champions describes a world that is characterized by declining

European network carriers struggling to survive the intense local and global

competition. While Europe and the United States of America are again in

the middle of an economic crisis, Asia is flourishing. The recession in the

western world has led to a shift in the mindsets of business and private

customers towards a strong price orientation. European network carriers

therefore are under heavy pressure from both European low-cost rivals and

strong Asian and Middle Eastern competitors on long-haul routes. These

companies have grown significantly in recent years due to favorable cost

position, innovative product and high client recognition.



• New Horizons refers to a world in which Europe is still struggling with the

aftermaths of the financial crisis, which originated in 2008 and 2009. Thus,

business travel has been cut to a minimum as companies face severe cost

pressure. In addition, an increasing market share of this shrinking segment

is captured by low-cost airlines. While Europe is still faced with the

aftermaths of an economic crisis, the ASEAN region together with China

has developed into the most vibrant business area worldwide, which has

increased the demand for long-haul flights to and from Asia tremendously

over the last 5 years. These traffic flows are dominated by European

carriers, which benefit from political protection of the sector in Europe and a

growing customer sentiment to buy 'European'.


Cost Comparison of Carriers


Future Scenarios for European

Airline Industry


Scenario: Network Fortress


Scenario: Europe Under Siege


Scenario: Decline of Champions


Scenario: New Horizons


Impact/Uncertainty Grid for

European Airlines


Training Needs

• Boeing predicts that nearly half-a-million new pilots and almost 600,000 in

support-staff will need to be trained by 2030 years to accommodate higher

travel demand – up from about 233,000 pilots and 100,000

mechanics/engineers who are currently employed by airlines worldwide.

• About 40 percent of this increased demand will come from the Asia-Pacific

region. China alone will need 70,600 new pilots over the next 20 years.

• Boeing also forecast that on the whole airlines will buy 30,900 aircraft

valued at $3.6 trillion between 2010 and 2029, with more than two-thirds of

that demand for smaller single-aisle jets such as Boeing's 737 and Airbus'

A320.

Source: IB Times, September 2010 http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/63951/20100920/airlines-recession-pilots-boeing.htm

http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/63951/20100920/airlines-recession-pilots-boeing.htm







Political/Market Pressures


• Air travel has become more competitive and efficient, but is subject to

significant market failures. One is that many passengers, especially

infrequent travellers, know very little about the quality of service of any

given airline. So they are disproportionately influenced by the ticket price,

says Kevin Neels of Brattle, a consultancy. The internet accentuates this: a

ticket that costs only a few dollars more may not show up on the first page

of an online search.

• Airlines have little financial incentive to take into account the cost to

passengers of, say, delays. Instead, they cram their planes to bursting,

taking the view that every empty seat is a bundle of money flying away.

When freak weather strikes, they have little spare capacity to replace

cancelled flights. So it might make sense for regulators to impose some cost

on airlines when passengers are stranded for a long time—so long as the

cost is not too great.

Source: Economist, January 2011 http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=348873&story_id=17857391

http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=348873&story_id=17857391


• Mr. Neels also worries that airline bosses‘ financial incentives make them do

things that yield short-term profits but risk harming their firms‘ reputations.

They cut costs by skimping on service, for example. They may even

economise on safety. There is concern among regulators that some pilots

are now paid dangerously little.

• Airlines are operating in a mostly deregulated market, but they are using

infrastructure that is largely government- owned and heavily regulated.

Even as the number of flights and flyers has soared, the airports that must

accommodate them have been neglected. Market forces have not been

allowed to allocate access to scarce infrastructure more efficiently. A system

of peak pricing for landing slots, for example, would ease congestion in

good weather and bad.




• Instead of market forces, there is massive political interference. Gleaming but empty

airports are built in places represented by powerful politicians. Security checks are

excessive because no politician wants to be blamed if a terrorist gets through. New

technology that would allow more planes to fly but put air-traffic controllers out of work is

blocked by unions. ―The aviation system is collateral damage to the political problems we

are seeing in all mature democracies,‖ says Michael E. Levine of New York University, a

longtime proponent of deregulation.

• When bad weather strikes, market forces could determine which passengers and flights

should go first, says Mr. Levine. For example, airlines could bid for the right to be prioritised

in the event of an airport‘s capacity unexpectedly being cut. Passengers would then be

able to choose (and pay more for) an airline that is less likely to leave them stranded for

long. That would reveal the currently hidden costs of congestion and increase the likelihood

of airlines competing on service quality as well as on price.



New Model – Virtual Airlines

New Model – Virtual Airlines

• IBS chairman & CEO V K Mathews -―What is most striking is that even in

2010, 80% of the time cargo is waiting to be moved at some location and

only 20% of the time it is actually moving. It‘s clear to see how much of an

improvement in efficiency is yet to be achieved.‖

• What that means is extra cost, because cargo idling at some location adds

to inventory holding cost, and what the situation should spur is a new

dimension to capacity usage utilising the benefits of technology.

• The IBS chief feels there has, for long, been a focus on the cost side, and

that it ought to shift to the value side, enabling companies to tap more value

than merely eking out savings through cost arbitrage. He winces at the

present situation in which aircraft, which are million-dollar assets, idle

frequently and are utilised suboptimally , all for want of adequate tech

support for optimisation and rationalisation of their usage.

Source: Economic Times, September 2010 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments--analysis/virtual-airlines-future-of-aviation/articleshow/6633586.cms

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments--analysis/virtual-airlines-future-of-aviation/articleshow/6633586.cms











New Model – Virtual Airlines• ―In fact, the question should be whether an airline company should be

handling all the components involved in passenger or cargo movement. The

future will belong to virtual airlines, a concept in which about five major

global entities would take up the business of flying aircraft in large numbers

around the world and the airlines that we know of today will be able to use

that capacity to run services under their individual brands.‖

• Mathews says there are compelling reasons to adopt this model. First, there

will be economies of scale as the few companies that operate aircraft will fly

massive numbers of planes as against multiple airlines flying far fewer

numbers of aircraft today. Secondly, the virtual airline concept will help

those in the business of operating branded travel services to operate

without the massive fixed cost component of owning aircraft, and instead

operate with variable costs.

• Thirdly, the aircraft-flying companies can better internationalise their costs,

like using pilots from different parts of the world, as against the current

practice where pilots are restricted in aircraft use linked to their companies.

Source: Economic Times, September 2010 http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments--analysis/virtual-airlines-future-of-aviation/articleshow/6633586.cms












NASA: Flight in 2025


• In late 2010, NASA awarded contracts to three teams—Lockheed Martin,

Northrop Grumman and Boeing—to study advanced concept designs for

aircraft that could take to the skies in the year 2025.

• While each design looks very different, the space agency noted all final

designs have to meet NASA's goals for less noise, cleaner exhaust and

lower fuel consumption. "Each aircraft has to be able to do all of those

things at the same time, which requires a complex dance of tradeoffs

between all of the new advanced technologies that will be on these

vehicles," NASA documents stated. "The proposed aircraft will also have to

operate safely in a more modernized air traffic management system."

• In addition, each design has to fly up to 85 percent of the speed of sound,

cover a range of approximately 7,000 miles, and carry between 50,000 and

100,000 pounds of payload, either passengers or cargo.

Source: eweek January 2011 http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Government-IT/NASA-Releases-Look-at-Flight-in-2025-523435/

http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Government-IT/NASA-Releases-Look-at-Flight-in-2025-523435/


















• Shape memory alloys, ceramic or fiber composites, carbon nanotube or

fiber optic cabling, self-healing skin, hybrid electric engines, folding wings,

double fuselages and virtual reality windows are just a few of the far-out

conceptual materials passenger planes in 2035 might embody.

Source: eWeek, January 2011 http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Government-IT/NASA-Releases-Look-at-Flight-in-2025-523435/


















Futuristic Flight

Futuristic Flight• One of the trendiest topics in aviation is futuristic design and innovation.

While green energy and drone technology are often incorporated into

futuristic plans, more outlandish design quirks are also exciting engineers. A

prime example is Airbus' 2030 Concept Plane, which features elements that

airplanes might have 20 to 40 years from now. Conceptual components

include self-cleaning cabins, smart seats that form to passengers' bodies,

and see-through walls, floors and ceilings. Engineers even imagine

holographic projections that could turn the cabin into a home office or Zen

garden.

• The Airbus conceptual plane features extra-long wings, a U-shaped tail and

a highly efficient fuselage.

• "It's not a real aircraft, and all the technologies it features, though feasible,

are not likely to come together in the same manner. Here we are stretching

our imagination and thinking beyond our usual boundaries," says Charles

Champion, vice president of engineering at Airbus. Still—these designs

might provide the keys to safer, greener and more comfortable air travel.

Source: Smarter Technology, July 2010 http://www.smartertechnology.com/c/a/Technology-For-Change/The-Future-of-Aviation-3-Trends-in-Flight/1/

http://www.smartertechnology.com/c/a/Technology-For-Change/The-Future-of-Aviation-3-Trends-in-Flight/1/



















UAV Flapless Flight

• A novel unmanned air vehicle (UAV) which showcases a wide range of new

technologies has successfully demonstrated 'flapless flight' in the UK

• The UAV, called DEMON, made the historic flight from an airfield at Walney

Island in Cumbria on Friday 17 September. Developed by Cranfield

University, BAE Systems, and nine other UK universities, DEMON is

designed to be able to forgo the use of conventional mechanical elevators

and ailerons which usually control the movement of an aircraft in favour of

novel aerodynamic control devices using blown jets of air.―

• Such an approach offers several advantages over 'moving flap' technology

which has been used since the early days of aviation, in that it means fewer

moving parts, less maintenance, and a more stealthy profile for the aircraft.

DEMON's trial flights were the first 'flapless flights' ever to be authorised by

the UK Civil Aviation Authority.

Source: BAE Systems , 2010 http://www.baesystems.com/AboutUs/ShowcaseUAVDemonstratesFlaplessFlight/index.htm

http://www.baesystems.com/AboutUs/ShowcaseUAVDemonstratesFlaplessFlight/index.htm

UAV Flapless Flight

• The flapless system, developed around a concept called fluidic flight control,

was the result of collaborative work between Manchester and Cranfield

universities together with BAE Systems' Advanced Technology Centre and

was tested in wind tunnels and on models before the full-scale trials on

DEMON took place.

• The DEMON is designed to fly with no conventional elevators or ailerons,

getting its pitch and roll control from technologies which rely on blown air

and so requires much fewer moving parts, therefore making it a lot easier to

maintain and repair.

• DEMON can fly parts of its mission by itself but, as it is currently an

experimental vehicle, is not fully autonomous.

• The shape of the DEMON aircraft is referred to as a "blended wing-body"

configuration.

Source: BAE Systems , 2010 http://www.baesystems.com/AboutUs/ShowcaseUAVDemonstratesFlaplessFlight/index.htm

http://www.baesystems.com/AboutUs/ShowcaseUAVDemonstratesFlaplessFlight/index.htm

Drone Flight

• Today, unmanned aircrafts are commonly used for war operations in many

countries. But as drone planes grow more capable of performing complex

tasks and carrying passengers, unmanned commercial flight seems to be

on the horizon. In June 2010, the Federal Aviation

Administration announced its two-year plan to bring unmanned flight to the

American skies, possibly in a commercial form. Commercial drone crafts

could mean cheaper—and possibly safer—flights.

• One particularly promising non-combat application of unmanned aircraft is

search and rescue. A team of researchers at Brigham Young University

recently revamped a cheap propeller-driven plane with computerized maps

and cameras that determine the locations of lost hikers. These drones can

find people more quickly and safely than human rescue teams or

helicopters.

Source: Smarter Technology, July 2010 http://www.smartertechnology.com/c/a/Technology-For-Change/The-Future-of-Aviation-3-Trends-in-Flight/1/




















Sustainability

Green Terminals

• San Francisco‘s renovated second terminal is slated to become the nation‘s

first airport terminal to be certified by the U.S. Green Building Council‘s

Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system.

• The upgrade is expected to reduce the airport‘s carbon emissions by an

estimated 1,667 tons annually.

• The revamped 640,000-square-foot terminal, called ―T2,‖ will be the new

base for Virgin America‘s and American Airlines‘ domestic flights. Designed

by Gensler Architects, T2 also aims to educate SFO‘s 6 million visitors

about green living.

• ―SFO is setting new standards for sustainability and the traveler

experience,‖ said SFO Director John Martin. ―T2 has been built to

accommodate today‘s and tomorrow‘s modern traveler — and they expect

sustainability, comfort and convenience. We have found a way to provide all

of those elements here at SFO.‖

Source: Earth 911, March 2011 http://earth911.com/news/2011/03/07/the-airport-of-the-future/

http://earth911.com/news/2011/03/07/the-airport-of-the-future/









Green Terminals

• Here are some highlights of T2‘s green features:

• Energy savings: T2 will use energy-efficient lighting and other equipment

to reduce the terminal‘s energy use. The bulk of T2‘s estimated annual

carbon savings will come from energy efficiency: 1,640 tons of greenhouse

gas emissions per year.

• Daylighting: T2‘s design harnesses the sun‘s natural light to reduce the

need for artificial lighting and to make the airport‘s atmosphere more

pleasant for travelers and employees.

• Recycling and composting: The renovation‘s contractors, Turner

Construction, have recycled 90 percent of the project‘s construction and

demolition material. SFO already had an extensive recycling and

composting program and will require all food vendors in the new terminal to

use compostable service ware and compost their food waste.











Green Terminals

• Waste reduction: To encourage passengers to travel with reusable water

bottles, T2 will have ―hydration stations,‖ where visitors can refill water

bottles once they are through security screening.

• Water savings: T2‘s new plumbing fixtures are very efficient, using 40

percent less water than standard fixtures. The terminal also has a dual

plumbing system, so treated wastewater can be used for restroom toilets.

• Green dining: Food vendors will offer local organic food whenever

possible.

• Green building materials: The renovation used recycled-content flooring,

carpet and tiles to conserve virgin materials and used low-emitting paints to

create excellent indoor air quality. Much of the existing building was reused

in the renovation, which reduced the project‘s carbon footprint itself by

about 12,300 tons of greenhouse gas emissions.

• Access to public transit: T2 will have a pedestrian bridge to connect

travelers with the Bay Area‘s subway system.











Aviation - Environmental Outlook

The Initial Scenario Set


Potential Emerging Risks

• Technology risks: Much of the technology which the industry has developed,

but which is not yet in the market, involves incremental improvement rather

than a step change in performance.

• However, if governments take more stringent action on climate change

targets, that could involve reductions in emissions of 60% or more between

now and 2050.

• The risk is that the type of technology needed to achieve such reductions

while maintaining substantial aviation volumes would be disruptive rather

than incremental. It is not clear if the industry has a model of how it would

adapt to a radically different environmental policy framework.



• Demand management: Similar issues may push governments towards

imposing demand management on airlines, or influencing demand, to

restrict usage. Some of these may also affect scheduling and flight

operations. Again, there appears to be little understanding of how such a

change in approach may affect industry structures and systems.

• Capacity issues: Technical capacity issues, such as runway capacity

and air traffic management capability, were reviewed and are captured

above. However, capacity could get restricted through shifting public

attitudes towards the social impact of airports. It is a commonplace of the

urban economics literature that one of the main limits to economic growth is

the ability of public infrastructure to support it (Cambridge is a good

example). Capacity issues may result from social limits as well as technical

limits to supply.



• Business model: In two of the scenarios, demand for aviation fell. In

most industries, this would most likely lead some players to exit the

industry. The regulatory structure of the aviation industry makes this option

difficult – or all but impossible. This instead encourages economic

competition between airlines which is environmentally damaging, e.g.

pricing in favour of interlining via environmentally inefficient locations. But

little air system and airline planning appears to be about how to manage

environmental aspects of the business in a growing, static or even shrinking

market, or the impacts of this on current regulation.

• Climate change: A number of participants observed that some of the

more complex impacts of aviation on climate change were poorly

understood. While this is true, and is an appropriate subject for knowledge

transfer, it is also the case that the industry is extremely unlikely to make an

error if it presses as hard as possible to reduce CO2 and NOx as early as

possible.



• Attitudinal shift: As was observed, the Restoration scenario requires

that there is a significant shift in social and public values about the

environment. There were competing views as to the likelihood of this.

However, there have been significant shifts in the UK, and elsewhere, in

each of the last three decades: around smoking in the 1980s; around road

use and road development in the 1990s; and around obesity in the current

decade. In each case, the shift was driven by a combination of NGO

pressure, changing regulatory views (partly driven by changing perceptions

of public cost), and a shift in social perception. In each case, the shift also

involved a change in the way individual choice and consumer choice were

perceived. There are risks for the aviation sector associated with how an

equivalent debate in relation to the environmental impacts of aviation are

perceived, weighed and resolved in society.


Biofuels: How Much Would we

Need to Grow to Power Aviation?

68,000 70,000

380,000

809,000

2,000,000

2,700,000

3,287,590

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Algae Ireland Montana World Annual Corn

Crop

Camelina Jatropha India

Sq km

Source: Enviro. Aero , 2009 http://www.enviro.aero/Content/Upload/File/BeginnersGuide_Biofuels_WebRes.pdf

http://www.enviro.aero/Content/Upload/File/BeginnersGuide_Biofuels_WebRes.pdf

Clean Sky

• Flying can become considerably more environmentally friendly -- the

aviation experts from the "Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in

Europe" ACARE are certain of this. In the guidelines that they compiled for

the European aviation industry, the experts are calling for a 50 percent

reduction in carbon dioxide and noise emissions by 2020; nitrogen oxide

output should be reduced by 80 percent.

• To achieve this goal, new structural concepts and aerodynamic profiles

have to be engineered, along with better drive concepts as well as adapted

logistical designs, and then put to use.

Source: Science Daily, June 2010 http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100510092513.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100510092513.htm

Technology

Horizons

Science and Technology

Our Personal ‘Ecosystems’ Will Evolve

Augmented

Reality

Memory

Capture /

Enhancement

Body Area

Network

Fully

Mapped

Personal

Genome

Travel technology

• Japanese healthcare specialist Tanita is using

RFID on a common pedometer.

• The device is designed to be worn on a

waistband.

• Instead of just giving a readout of distance

traveled and calories burned, the device

shoots the data off to a nearby RFID travel

card.

• Once home, the data can be synced with a

PC and uploaded to the company‘s Karada

Karute (Body Card) website, where ongoing

progress can be monitored.

• Although Tanita‘s system currently works only

in Japan, the possibility of taking the

combined healthcare and travel card global is

clear.

Source: CNN Go ‘Hi-tech gear for tomorrow's traveler,’ January 2010http://www.cnngo.com/explorations/none/new-travel-gear-workout-tech-get-excited-about-405322

http://www.cnngo.com/explorations/none/new-travel-gear-workout-tech-get-excited-about-405322

















Travel migrates online

• While most Chinese visit traditional travel websites for research, they are likely to

finalize their itineraries via interaction with other netizens on social networking

platforms, according to the survey.

• Nearly 100 million Chinese netizens regularly visit online bulletin boards to share

opinions, ask for help or socialize with friends, according to 2008 figures from the

China Internet Network Information Center.

• ―Word of mouth is the major factor for travelers when picking airline tickets or hotels,‖

said Nan Nan, marketing manager for travel search engine Qunar.com. ―For them,

strangers are more reliable than advertisements.‖

• Online advertising, however, is also having more influence on Chinese travelers than

advertising in more traditional mediums, like television and print. Almost 70 percent of

those surveyed remembered seeing travel ads on the Internet, the Nielsen survey

said.

Source: China Travel Trends, August 2009 http://www.chinatraveltrends.com/2009/08/29/travelers-hit-internet-to-plan-vacations/

http://www.chinatraveltrends.com/2009/08/29/travelers-hit-internet-to-plan-vacations/












Travel software

• With more than 1.6 billion Muslims globally,

religious tourism to Saudi Arabia alone

generating $7bn annually, a figure which is

expected to grow at 20% over the next decade,

and an increasingly affluent Arab population

under 21-years-of-age, Halal-friendly travel is

being widely tipped as one of the industry's

fastest growing market segments.

• "We are seeing massive growth within this

market segment and it was something we

needed to be part of. To cater for demand, we

have developed our very own rating system and

website for travel based on a set of Halal-

friendly criteria," said Fazal Bahardeen, CEO

and Member of the Board, Crescentrating.

Source: AME Info, May 2010 http://www.ameinfo.com/231843.html

http://www.ameinfo.com/231843.html


Travel software

• With a rating of 1 to 7, 1 being the lowest and 7 being the highest, the criteria for

rating include prayer-related facilities, Kibla direction in rooms, serving of Halal food

as well as those that respect the fasting month of Ramadan, washroom facilities

suitable for Muslims, and non-serving of alcohol.

• More than 100 hotels worldwide currently avail of Crescentrating's services, including

three in the UAE, four in Qatar, one in Bahrain, as well as 6-rated hotels in Saudi

Arabia and South Africa.

• In addition, a significant number of hotels located in China, Malaysia, Indonesia and

Singapore have also signed-up to Crescentrating's services.

• A 6-rated hotel facility is one that serves Halal food and does not serve alcohol at all.

Whilst those that have been given a 1-rating are those whose personnel are at the

very least, trained to provide all the necessary information to Halal-conscious guests.

• Crescentrating's website also offers its own booking facility for hotels. It plans to

include ratings for restaurants, shopping malls and theme parks.

Source: AME Info ‘'Halal Friendly' travel services make Middle East debut at Arabian Travel Market 2010,’ May 2010 http://www.ameinfo.com/231843.html


Smart Mobility Strategies that Will Transform the Industry

Smart Mobility Strategies that

Will Transform the Industry• Airline Mobility Evolution

• Traditional airline business models are evolving rapidly to exploit the growth

of mobility, and many airlines are beginning to experiment with mobility-

enabled personalized services.

• Solutions such as websites optimized for mobile access and bar-coded

boarding passes sent to smartphones are seeing double-digit growth.

Based on the survey, SITA forecasted (2010) that by the end of 2010,

mobility optimization for websites will grow from 15% currently to 51%.

• Mobile phone-based boarding will increase from 7% today to 31%, and

other paper- and card-based applications such as baggage receipts, card

access to premium lounges, and cash and credit card payments are also

expected to be replaced by mobile applications. In the meantime, use of

wireless devices by airport staff to support aircraft maintenance will grow

from 17% currently to 31% by the end of 2010.

Source: Cisco, ‘Airline of the Future,’ July 2010 http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/pov/Airline_of_the_Future_PoV_FINAL0712.pdf

http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/pov/Airline_of_the_Future_PoV_FINAL0712.pdf

• Airport and airline operations are also seeing innovative mobility

enhancements in the areas of ―operational messaging‖ (between the aircraft

and airline headquarters), maintenance, pre- and in-flight services, flight

planning, and asset and spare parts management

• Mobility 3.0: The Future

• While Mobility 1.0 and 2.0 have enabled airlines to move beyond basic and

maturing services, Mobility 3.0 will ultimately empower airlines to combine

1.0 and 2.0 capabilities with context-aware applications to transform their

business models, enhance their relevance to customers, and provide

passengers with greater control over every aspect of their travel—anytime,

anywhere, through any device.

Smart Mobility Strategies that

Will Transform the Industry




• Examples of Mobility 3.0 services and applications include:

– Personal travel assistant—for travel-related interactions such as alerts

pertaining to all aspects of the journey, including drive time to the

airport, flight times, and security line status

– Mobile marketing—dynamic packaging of personalized offerings and

discounts

– Mobile concierge service—with the push of a button, access a virtual

concierge whose familiarity with the user‘s profile (likes, dislikes, etc.)

enables delivery of a highly personalized experience

– Mobile payment—smartphone as a secure e-wallet, taking advantage of

context aware security capability

– Augmented reality—context- and location-aware applications enable an

immersive, context-rich environment for the passenger

– Real-time business intelligence for airlines—rather than conduct

analytical yield management on a batch basis, airlines can perform

optimized real-time yield management based on passengers‘ location,

what they are doing, and what they might want


• Mobility 3.0 solutions enable passengers to make far more intelligent and

precise decisions about their travel to and from the airport. When combined,

such capabilities create a mashup that offers context-aware, location-based

services that can notify passengers of whether they need to leave for the

airport earlier or later based on real-time and predictive data of traffic,

airport, and airspace conditions.




• New Business Models

• Mobility 3.0 will permit new business models that enhance customer

experience, facilitate new services, increase revenues and profitability,

streamline airport operations, lower sales and marketing costs, boost

employee productivity, and encourage further service-level differentiation.

The impact of Mobility 3.0 capabilities spans the various business models of

network, regional, and low-cost carriers. The picture on the following slide

depicts a high-level smart mobility vision that, through successful execution

of a mobility strategy, enables new business models and benefits.




• These capabilities can streamline and unburden the travel process by

empowering passengers with enhanced self-service, real-time data, and

context-aware services. Such services can dramatically expand the airlines‘

value chain with multiple opportunities to shape a rich, personalized

passenger experience, creating new ways to drive profitability.

• Mobility 3.0 will further accelerate the airline industry‘s current migration to

direct sales and ticket/product distribution. Airlines expect to increase the

proportion of tickets sold through online channels from 26.7 percent to 41.4

percent by 2012, and through their own websites.

• Smart mobile devices are a key driver of this development. This is

especially true in emerging countries, where low penetration of fixed

Internet access hampers direct airline ticket sales. Here, mobile phones can

play a critical role in delivering new services and enabling airlines to interact

with customers.




• Offering smart, mobility-enabled, personalized services and products can

generate new revenues, in addition to monies from the sale of core products

and ancillary services/products. Such new revenues may include the sale of

perishable products (for example, empty seats) through real-time auctions

for aisle or window seats, or sales of overhead storage as space becomes

available; commissionable products such as food, drinks, music or movies,

premium airport parking and car services; or use of frequent flyer points.




• New Operations and Processes

• Airlines traditionally operate in a highly siloed fashion where specific

processes necessary to support extremely efficient operations are

departmentally isolated. Because of this, sharing cross-departmental

information is typically not a priority. To extract maximum value from smart

mobility, airlines must achieve a greater level of information sharing. To

achieve this, they must retool their operational processes to support a

passenger-journey-centric framework instead of the existing ―seat-

production‖ model. Airline operations that can benefit from smart mobility

include:

• Collaborative ramp management—Mobility 3.0 solutions can enable

employees to collaborate based on real-time information such as gate

changes, leading to a reduction in aircraft turnaround times.




• Innovative asset management—Smartphone solutions can provide ramp

workers with up-to-date information required for their specific task. For

example, lost luggage is an ongoing concern for passengers. Using

smartphones to manage luggage along its journey, airline baggage agents

can trace baggage by accessing and logging real-time information about the

luggage‘s location. This capability leads to faster problem resolution and

asset identification, and improved passenger satisfaction.

• Workforce management—Using smartphones, employees working on the

ground, for example, can access real-time information from flight crews to

handle passenger requests (such as flight delays) more efficiently.

• Airport footprint—Smartphone capabilities will also allow airlines to reduce

their airport footprints (personnel, counters, kiosks, real estate, and more).

Airlines typically have relied on self-service capabilities delivered by the web

and airport kiosks to lower costs and, in many cases, improve customer

experience. Kiosks are expensive systems to deploy and maintain, and web

solutions address only a narrow portion of the passenger journey.



Airline Driven Change


• Fly Delta is Delta Airlines official Android app. It lets you check in for your

flight, watch flight statuses, and even download a mobile boarding pass to

your phone. A new update gives the ability to choose your seat from a

handy little map.

• Normally you have to choose your seat when you purchase your ticket, and

if you want to try and change it at the airport you have to wait in line for a

terminal to check availability.

• Now you can do it on your phone wherever you please. You can even check

your upgrade eligibility.

• The Delta app is an example of how much smartphones can do just to make

the little things easier.

Source: Android Community, July 2011 http://androidcommunity.com/delta-airlines-app-update-lets-you-choose-your-seat-20110720/

http://androidcommunity.com/delta-airlines-app-update-lets-you-choose-your-seat-20110720/




















• Delta Airlines customers can now check in to flights on the company‘s

Facebook app.

• From the Ticket Counter application, Delta customers can now check

SkyMiles and preview what amenities are available for various flights, too.

Delta launched its app back in August 2010, at which time it was the first

airline to allow users to book flights through the social network.

• Using the app, which was developed by 8thBridge, boarding passes can be

printed from the Facebook, just like on the website. Delta also lets users

share details about their travel plans or itineraries with users over

Facebook.

Source: Mashable. March 2011 http://mashable.com/2011/03/17/delta-facebook-check-in/

http://mashable.com/2011/03/17/delta-facebook-check-in/







Airport Automation

Airport Automation

• Airport automation has always involved significant investment in

infrastructure.

• Airports strive to balance passenger comfort with operational efficiency

whilst striving for a unique experience that reflects the specific destination.

• A growing global trend is the privatisation of airports. This may entail a

complete shift to private ownership or a government industry hybrid model

where investment from private equity firms is combined with government

support. This has created a more business-centric focus on return on

investment for any airport IT expenditure. As Low Cost Carriers continue to

grow and embrace secondary city airports it puts added pressure on

traditional airports to modernise to effectively compete.

• Airport technology is often locally deployed. This approach has been

chosen by airport executives because of the perceived value and control of

locally installed software.

























Airport Automation

• With the IT industry moving to cloud based computing, the idea of installing

software at the airport for individual functions is both antiquated and

inefficient. This local focus not only impacts the airport‘s ability to execute

common processes across airlines and terminals, but also does not allow

airports to share best practices by using a common platform.

• The reality is that today‘s airport technology is highly fragmented.

• For example, a key component of baggage automation is the Baggage

Reconciliation System (BRS). In some airports a BRS does not exist, in

other airports a different BRS exists in different terminals and in most cases

the BRS is not integrated with airline systems. This standalone nature of the

BRS is symptomatic of the bigger problem of lack of system integration

within airport systems and between airport and airline technology.

























Airport Automation

• Airports suffer from a lack of customer insight. This takes the form of both

operational weakness as well as limitations on customer centric services. To

counteract this lack of customer knowledge some airports have launched

loyalty programmes.

• In order to increase profitability, merchandising of airport shops and

services is critical.

• To effectively promote relevant airport services to the right customer at the

right time, customer insight is mandatory.

• Products and service offers need to be customised to fit specific traveller

preferences encouraging greater spend at airport shops and restaurants.

• Whether or not the airport decides to invest in new systems to improve

passenger processing and merchandising, passengers themselves will

increasingly demand enhanced services that they receive from other

transportation providers and retailers.

























Airport Automation

• For example, as rail companies embrace Near Field Communication (NFC)

to simplify and improve the passenger boarding process, the customer will

expect the same type of experience at the airport. Retailers such as Best

Buy and Macys have implemented sophisticated mobile marketing platforms

offered by innovative start-ups such as Shopkick. By implementing

Shopkick, the retailer can target specific mobile promotions based on the

customer‘s precise location in the store. As retailers offer specific

• targeted mobile promotions to shop visitors, passengers will come to expect

this same type of one-to-one marketing at the airport. In fact, the airport

could be viewed as a shopping mall and thus consumer behaviour which is

being shaped by technology such as Shopkick will be expected by the

always connected traveller. Without passenger insight this type of electronic

merchandising will not be possible.

























Airport Systems of the Future

• Widespread 2015-2020

• To support the airport of the future, an integrated technological eco-system

must be created. This would allow all airport functions to be unified under an

integrated airport system that is tightly aligned with the airline systems to

deliver a comprehensive airport experience.

• The self service trend will continue with the widespread adoption of Near

Field Communication. NFC will be used for boarding, payments and

personalised promotions. Once the majority of passengers own a NFC

enabled smartphone, the creation of methods to automatically check-in the

passenger is possible. Today, NFC requires the passenger to swipe their

mobile phone against a NFC reader. As NFC becomes more widespread,

any interaction the passenger has in the terminal could trigger a check-in.


























• Airports may consider installing NFC readers throughout the terminal to

sense the passenger‘s presence and provide an automated check-in notice

to the airlines. NFC may be combined with location based social networking

applications such as Foursquare which enables automated check-in for

favourite places.

• Clearly the future airport experience will track the passenger‘s location (with

their permission) enabling a more productive experience, reducing the need

to wait in line.

• By this time all baggage will be location aware. Passengers will know that

their bag is on the airplane and airline and airport personnel will be able to

easily locate lost bags, or offload baggage when required improving

departure times. If a flight is cancelled the passengers will know when their

baggage is offloaded. Improved baggage passenger notification will save

the airline, airport and ground handlers time and money reducing staff

needed to track and deliver lost bags.


























• Underlying these new services is a fully integrated airline/airport ecosystem.

Airports will adopt integrated IT solutions that provide seamless connectivity

between flight operations, resource management, baggage systems and

merchandising efforts. At the centre of this new airport infrastructure is an

operational database that manages all customer information.

• This new infrastructure will be connected to next generation DCS and PSS

airline systems exchanging key passenger information to help both airlines

and airports manage passenger flows.

• At the heart of this technological revolution is the more informed passenger.

We are already in the age of ubiquitous connectivity.

• The ‗always connected‘ passenger will demand information and services

delivered on their preferred personal computing device that is personal,

location sensitive and contextually relevant. By improving the efficiency of

the traveler and informing them of all facets of the airport experience,

airlines will be able to deliver a differentiated enhanced experience that

corrects many of the passenger issues present today.Source: Amadeus, 2011 http://www.amadeus.com/airlineIT/navigating-the-airport-of-tomorrow/docs/Amadeus-Navigating-the-Airport-Of-Tomorrow-2011-EN.pdf
























Next Generation Smart Phones

Internet of Things

Interactive Surfaces (2011 onwards)

• Interactive Surfaces

• 2011 onwards

• Even skin has become an interactive surface, with scientists able to create

a system that allows users to use their own hands and arms as

touchscreens by detecting the various ultralow-frequency sounds produced

when tapping different parts of the skin. Skinput uses microchip-sized

projectors to allow for interactive elements rendered on the user‘s forearm

and hand.

Source: ZDNet, March 2010 http://blogs.zdnet.com/emergingtech/?p=2146

http://blogs.zdnet.com/emergingtech/?p=2146

Augmented Reality

• Copenhagen Airport has updated its CPH Airport iPhone app, available for

free download in the Apple‘s iTunes store, to enable users to view the

distances and locations of restaurants, information desks, lounges, shops

and gates.

• This Live View feature comes through augmented reality technology and

was developed for the airport by SITA Lab and Novasa. Augmented reality

has been around for awhile, but the CPH Airport app is special because it

claims to be the first augmented reality application that works indoors.

• Most augmented reality apps use GPS technology to determine a user‘s

location, but concrete terminal buildings make that untenable indoors. So,

instead the CPH Airport app uses signal strength and triangulation from Wi-

Fi access points around the airport to determine the location of each

traveler‘s mobile phone.

Source: Business Insider, April 2011 http://www.businessinsider.com/copenhagen-airport-gets-augmented-reality-app-2011-4

http://www.businessinsider.com/copenhagen-airport-gets-augmented-reality-app-2011-4















Augmented Reality

• Of course, the airport plans on commercializing the whole thing as soon as

possible, meaning you‘ll probably have the choice of opting in to receive

special promotions from retailers when using the app.

• Other upgrades to Version 2.0 of the app include the capability of viewing

your location at the airport on maps, and the parking map shows the

number of available spaces.

Source: Business Insider, April 2011 http://www.businessinsider.com/copenhagen-airport-gets-augmented-reality-app-2011-4
















Kiosks and Interactive Surfaces

QR Tags

Mobile Commerce

Growth of Evolutionary Psychology (2011 onwards)

Growth of Evolutionary Psychology (2011 onwards)

• Evolutionary psychology (the contention that many aspects of our behaviour

and emotions are evolutionary adaptations) may merge with cognitive

neuroscience to produce a new understanding of how the mind and brain

evolved and thus offer a platform for deeper understanding of human

behaviour (Sigma Scan).

Source: Sigma Scan, 2009 http://www.sigmascan.org/Live/Issue/ViewIssue.aspx?IssueId=410&SearchMode=1

http://www.sigmascan.org/Live/Issue/ViewIssue.aspx?IssueId=410&SearchMode=1

Virtual Worlds

Virtual Products Answering the Call of the Passenger

Global Research Study – Identified High Merchandise Interest

Source: GuestLogix ‘Opportunities Abound in Virtual Products’ presentation, June 2011

Virtual Products Answering the Call of the Passenger

Global Research Study – Identified Strong Consumer Benefit


Virtual Products Support Access at all Travel Touch Points


Paris – Virtual Boarding and

Beyond?• An airport in Paris is tinkering with boarding staff that are not, in fact, real

people, but holographic images of people.

• The project is being piloted at the Orly airport in the French capital and over

the past month the virtual staff have received a mix reception from air

travelers.

• The semi-holographic agents appear seemingly out of thin air at the

beginning of each boarding process and give instructions to passengers

much like any human agent would.

• The ―holograms‖ are actually pre-recorded, two dimensional projections set

against human-shaped silhouettes made of Plexiglas. Three real live

humans pre-recorded the virtual agents‘ messages and mannerisms in a

studio earlier this summer.

• Depending on passenger reaction and a number of other factors, the

concept could spread to other parts of the airport in 2012.

Source: TMC Net.com, August 2011 http://telepresence.tmcnet.com/topics/telepresence/articles/209747-airport-employs-holographic-staff-paris.htm

http://telepresence.tmcnet.com/topics/telepresence/articles/209747-airport-employs-holographic-staff-paris.htm











‘Virtual assistants’

• London Luton Airport has introduced two ‗virtual assistants‘ – Holly and

Graham – to communicate important security messages as passengers

move from the check-in area to the departure lounge.

• The next-generation digital signage utilises the latest holographic imaging

technology. Already in place at a number of UK airports, there is growing

interest, both within the UK and globally, and the range of applications for

the ‗virtual assistants‘ looks set to grow.

• The aim of the two holograms – Holly and Graham – installed at London

Luton was to deliver a compelling ―how to prepare‖ message, which, if

successful, would result in fewer passengers needing to be stopped and

searched. Since their introduction, the number of bags identified as being

packed incorrectly has been reduced by 5%.

• A customisable solution, looking ahead, the holograms could be deployed

throughout the airport in both operational roles disseminating passenger

information and for use by retail or catering outlets.

Source: FTE, August 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/08/virtual-assistants-simplify-security-and-improve-passenger-experience/

http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/08/virtual-assistants-simplify-security-and-improve-passenger-experience/















Technology in Aviation:

Holograms• To shorten security lines, improve customer service, and make passengers

feel like they are in a Star Wars film, Manchester and London Luton airports

have introduced holograms at their bag check queues.

• Manchester unveiled their two holograms ―John‖ and ―Julie‖ on January 31st

and a few days later ―Holly‖ and ―Graham‖ were introduced at Luton.

• The goal of both is to brief passengers on security rules which will hopefully

decrease wait times. The airports claimed to not be aware that the other

was developing such similar technologies.

• The virtual staff will improve check in time etc by reminding them of security

requirements like the ban on most liquids.

Source: Nile Guide, Travel News, by Morgan DeBoer, February 2011 http://www.nileguide.com/blog/2011/02/07/the-future-of-airport-customer-service-holograms/

http://www.nileguide.com/blog/2011/02/07/the-future-of-airport-customer-service-holograms/













Business Traveler Innovation Award Winners

Business Traveler Innovation Award Winners

• Category 4: Outstanding Apps

• Criteria: Applications that help business travelers organize and/or make best

use of their time on the road

• Winner: GateGuru

• Innovation: In-airport tool/guide

• GateGuru is the first mobile application to refine your airport

experience. The app offers information to guide any trip. It provides instant

access to your itinerary, security wait times, airport maps, and a structured

database of airport amenities, including ratings, reviews and tips from fellow

travelers

Source: GBTA, August 2011 http://www.gbta.org/BusinessTravelInnovationAwards/Pages/BusinessTravelInnovationWelcome.aspx?Referral=Innovation

http://www.gbta.org/BusinessTravelInnovationAwards/Pages/BusinessTravelInnovationWelcome.aspx?Referral=Innovation

Business Traveler Innovation

Award Winners• Category 5: Travel Convenience & Efficiency

• Criteria: Services that expedite the travel process

• Winner: Intelity

• Innovation: ICE Touch on iPads

• The Intelity ICE Touch provides a virtual concierge stationed on iPads in

hotel rooms. Guests quickly navigate services such as housekeeping,

transportation, room service, spa and flight info without ever picking up the

phone.

Source: GBTA, August 2011 http://www.gbta.org/BusinessTravelInnovationAwards/Pages/BusinessTravelInnovationWelcome.aspx?Referral=Innovation

http://www.gbta.org/BusinessTravelInnovationAwards/Pages/BusinessTravelInnovationWelcome.aspx?Referral=Innovation

Rethinking the

Airport

Experience

Drivers of Future Airport Design

• More passengers

• Self service

• More luggage and storage requirements

• Time poor / cash rich travellers

• Intolerance of longer waiting times

• Demands for better food and entertainment

• Rising Asian traveller numbers

• National Pride

• Environmental concerns and expectations

• Increasing no. of peaks in demand from one

off events e.g. Olympics

• IT advances and Expectations

• Modular Design

• Rapid Turnaround

• High Throughput

• Rethinking Security

• Larger Airports

• Climate Proofing

• Support Religious Needs

• New Models of Commercialisation

• Sustainable Design

• Temporary Structures

• ‘Airport Lite’

• Leading IT Capabilities

Design Drivers Solutions

Enhancing the Airport

Experience• NFC

• The main goal of the airport is to ensure the safe flow of passengers from

the airport entrance to the gate.

• Along the way, the opportunity to merchandise airport products and services

represents an essential revenue opportunity for the airport.

• Technology such as NFC will likely play a critical role in the airport

experience but requires a significant investment in infrastructure and a

critical mass of smartphones with NFC readers.

• By 2015, 247 million smartphones will be NFC enabled, up from 0.96 million

in 2011.


























• By placing NFC readers throughout the airport, passengers will be able to

• › Check-in with their mobile phone

› Receive coupons for airport shops

› Pay with their mobile phone

› Interact with NFC enabled advertisements

› Exchange information with other travellers by simply bumping their NFC

enabled phones

› Use the phone for boarding

› Use the phone for public transportation

• NFC does require a significant infrastructure investment and a critical mass

of NFC mobile phone penetration, and as a result, the move to NFC will be

evolutionary.

• Pilot tests at airports around the world have begun, but full implementation

of NFC at airports is likely to take 4-7 years.


























• ‗As NFC becomes more widespread, any interaction the passenger has in

the terminal could trigger a check-in,‘ the Amadeus report said.

• Near field technology could also be used for boarding, payments and

personalised promotions on an opt-in basis.

• ‗NFC technology has the potential to change every aspect of the airport

experience,‘ the report added.

• The Navigating the Airport of Tomorrow report says all baggage will be

‗location aware‘ within a decade, meaning passengers with mobile devices

will be able to see that their bag is on the plane.


























• Self-service and mobility are the key themes of the airport of tomorrow.

Ubiquitous connectivity means the passenger is always online and thus

expects real time communication. Simple advances such as verifying that

the passenger‘s baggage is on board the aircraft can help minimise

frustration and uncertainty.

• Automating responses to periods of service disruption where vouchers are

generated automatically and delivered to mobile devices is a key

opportunity to shift this activity to a more self service mode. Roaming

agents handling severe disruptions, coming to the passenger rather than

making the passenger stand in an extended queue helps manage limited

resources and improve overall efficiency.

• To achieve this vision of the airport of tomorrow, airlines and airports must

invest in new systems that automate manual tasks, share information and

provide proactive communication to the passenger.


























• Airlines need to provide airports critical passenger data so they may better

plan manpower needs. Baggage systems need to provide real time

awareness of location to all parties to reduce loss and accelerate the

reuniting of the baggage and passenger.

• At the centre of all this technology is customer information. With

comprehensive customer information all stakeholders can improve service

to the passenger and use customer insight to market ancillary airline

services and airport products and services.

• The airport revolution has already begun. The revolution is actually an

evolution continuing today‘s efforts to increase self service capabilities for

the passenger and communicating to the traveller the status of their flight,

and bag in real time whilst enhancing and improving their in airport

experience.


























• The 'next generation' check-in should provide greater speed and ease

through the airport terminal by eliminating airport queuing, based on a new

Qantas frequent flyer card, a Q card reader and bag drop facility.

• The new Qantas frequent flyer card features an 'intelligent Q' smart chip

and will act as a permanent boarding pass, replacing eligible customers‘

existing frequent flyer cards.

• The card will be used at various points throughout the experience, including

at check-in, at bag drop, and to board the aircraft.

• Customers arriving at the airport who have not yet checked in online or via

their mobile device, will be able to simply touch their card at an all-new Q

card reader located throughout the check-in hall.

• The Q card reader will provide both visual and audible recognition

of successful check-in.

Source: Design Boom, July 2010 http://www.designboom.com/weblog/cat/8/view/11002/marc-newson-next-generation-check-in-for-qantas.html

http://www.designboom.com/weblog/cat/8/view/11002/marc-newson-next-generation-check-in-for-qantas.html
















• Qantas‘ ambitious Next Generation Check-in system, including the

smartchipped Q Cards and Q Bag Tags, picked up a global award for

innovation in airline technology.

• The Airline Strategy Awards 2011 (London, July 2011), said that while

Qantas is not the first airline to embrace radio-frequency identification

(RFID) technology, its ―innovative Q Bag Tag and faster, smarter check-in

have developed its scope beyond any previous use‖.

• ―RFID has been around a long time, but not much has happened‖ the

ASA11 judging panel noted. ―(Next Generation Check-in) shows real

creativity.‖

• ―Initial RFID baggage tracking solutions have relied on single-use

disposable tags and only focused on improving baggage sorting after

check-in. Next-Generation Check-in also addresses the front end of the

process with the aim of simplifying a passenger‘s complete journey through

an airport while improving the efficiency and accuracy of baggage (sorting).‖

Source: RD Hub, July 2011 http://www.rdhub.com/?p=7156

http://www.rdhub.com/?p=7156

Biometrics

• Passengers at Amsterdam Schiphol are being promised a speedier passage

through immigration after the installation of new electronic border-crossing

gates.

• In a deal with Accenture, the airport claims the new gates will speed up the

identification process by using the latest in biometric technologies, including

facial recognition.

• Accenture will initially deliver 36 electronic border-crossing gates to be used

at Schiphol during 2011.

Source: Travel Mole, July 2011 http://www.travelmole.com/stories/1148551.php

http://www.travelmole.com/stories/1148551.php

Biometrics and an airport's

security strategy

• Jim Slevin of HRS: ‗Biometrics allows us to definitively answer who

somebody is, whereas behavioural analytics permits us, when we don't

know who you are, to least work out what you're doing. Biometrics is going

to, over time, play an increasing role in airport security. The main reason for

this is that there appears to be a real desire in the industry to change the

model from a sheep dip, a one-size-fits-all security processing model, to

one that's based on some threat and intelligence basis, based on

individuals. If you're going to base security decisions on an individual, then

you have to lock down who that individual is.‘

Source: Airport Technology, February 2011 http://www.airport-technology.com/features/feature109762/

http://www.airport-technology.com/features/feature109762/



Biometrics and an airport's security strategy

• ‗Realistically, biometrics is the only answer because tickets and other

breeder documents can be swapped or falsified and are therefore fallible.

Don't get me wrong, there are data protection issues and privacy concerns

to be overcome with biometrics, but I believe they will be overcome if the

security model and the facilitation of access is beneficial. I'd also say it's the

only valid way to permit the intelligence sharing of that information. One of

the things we often forget about is the people who get access to that data;

there are lots of concerns over data protection and privacy of information.

Biometrics can identify you as a member of staff, and says whether or not

you have permission to see a particular piece of information.‘





Biometrics and an airport's security strategy

• Secondly, as biometrics increases its penetration in airports, you start to get

some amazing management information back regarding passenger flow. So

if you imagine a position where your biometric is your ticket and you're

logged at various stages, there will be people who worry about the Big

Brother aspect of that. But if you view that biometric from an anonymous

perspective the system can simply know it's seen a unique passenger at

points A, B, C, etc through the airport and knows what times they were there

- consider that for all passengers going through and you have an enormous

amount of journey measurement information upon which to make real-time

operational decisions. It's maybe an output from a different security regime,

and it's invaluable information in terms of what is a normal flow, so you start

to see, for instance, bottlenecks if there are queues developing





Less Intrusive Screening

• Heeding to calls for a less intrusive way to screen passengers at the airport,

transportation authorities have proposed a high tech solution that includes

eye scanners, x-rays, metal and liquid detectors.

• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) demoed the first mock-up

of a Checkpoint of the Future at the Association‘s 67th Annual General

Meeting (AGM) and World Air Transport Summit, in Singapore.

• ―We spend $7.4 billion a year to keep aviation secure. But our passengers

only see hassle. Passengers should be able to get from curb to boarding

gate with dignity,‖ said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA‘s Director General and

CEO. ―That means without stopping, stripping or unpacking, and certainly

not groping.‖

• The system was developed to address invasion of privacy concerns, make

better use of available background information and ensure that most

travelers can get through the procedure with minimal hassle or delays.

Source: Smart Planet, June 2011 http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/thinking-tech/video-airport-security-checkpoint-of-the-future/7384

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/thinking-tech/video-airport-security-checkpoint-of-the-future/7384
















• ―Today‘s checkpoint was designed four decades ago to stop hijackers

carrying metal weapons,‖ said Bisignani. ―We need a process that responds

to today‘s threat. It must amalgamate intelligence based on passenger

information and new technology. That means moving from a system that

looks for bad objects, to one that can find bad people.‖

• To ensure that the security screening is as hands-off and efficient as

possible, passengers will be directed to one of three scanner-equipped

tunnels. Each tunnel is tiered as ‗known traveler‘, ‗normal‘, and ‗enhanced

security,‘ with each offering a different level of scrutiny. The system

designates which tunnel each passenger must go through depending on

how much of a security threat the person poses, a determination that‘s

made using results of an internal risk assessment conducted by the

government before the passenger arrives at the airport.


















• A passenger can speed through the ―known traveler‖ tunnel if the person

had completed background checks with government authorities while the

majority will likely walk through the ―normal‖ tunnel. Also, a passenger may

be required to pass through an additional ―elevated-risk‖ tunnel if the system

detects something suspicious during the walk-through screening.

• Perhaps the system‘s biggest selling point is that the screening technology

should allow passengers to walk through the checkpoint without having to

remove clothes or unpack their belongings.

• The IATA is hoping to have these checkpoints installed in airports within five

to seven years, a process that will require the cooperation of government

agencies to define what standards to use and also agreement on how the

data would be shared.

















Security Innovation

• Traveling through Shanghai's Pudong International Airport, every single

bag of every passenger is swabbed and tested and tested for explosives.

• Sounds costly and time-prohibitive, doesn't it?

• Unlike the one-by-one testing done in the USA, the testing at Pudong is

done in batches of about 20 passengers at a time. The bags of all

passengers in a group are swabbed as they proceed past a checkpoint to a

cordoned-off area. As that group of passengers waits, all their bags are

subjected to a single test. The process takes only a few seconds, then that

batch is released.

• Harvard Business Review describes this as ‗…a useful service innovation.

From the airport's perspective, it satisfies a need for greater vigilance, even

while keeping costs and passenger inconveniences in check. From the

customer's perspective, it meets the desire for efficiency in the screening

processes and for reassurance that the flight will be safe.‘

Source: Harvard Business Review, October 2010 http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2010/10/how_do_customers_experience_yo.html

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2010/10/how_do_customers_experience_yo.html

Security Innovation

• It also provides two useful reminders about service delivery innovation.

First, it does not need to be expensive to make a positive difference. Some

of the highest-impact innovations are about how services are delivered

rather than what services are delivered. Second, at its best, it finds ways to

resolve long-standing conflicts (such as the differing priorities of customers

and service providers, or tradeoffs between quality and cost).

Source: Harvard Business Review, October 2010 http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2010/10/how_do_customers_experience_yo.html

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2010/10/how_do_customers_experience_yo.html

Self Boarding

Self Boarding

• Lufthansa is installing second-generation gates at several of its larger

operations.

• ―We have self-boarding gates at our two hubs Frankfurt and Munich, plus

six more in Germany,‖ says Lufthansa‘s Jan Baerwalde. ―With the recent

upgrade of the boarding gates, we have increased the number of people

passing through those gates within one minute from 14 to 17 people – an

increase of almost 30%,‖ he adds.

• This improvement in throughput is significant at airports where space for

expansion is limited. As the number of air travellers increases, the need for

a timely boarding procedure is more prevalent than ever.

Source: Future Airport.com, March 2011 http://www.futureairport.com/articles/025_mar2011/FAI025_automatic-for-the-people.pdf

http://www.futureairport.com/articles/025_mar2011/FAI025_automatic-for-the-people.pdf







Arrivals

Automated Immigration?

• Taiwan will be launching a trial of an automated border control system at

offshore Kinmen island in order to simplify and speed up border controls.

• Once the trial runs are successful in the outlying island, the scheme will

later be expanded to two airports in northern Taiwan, Taiwan Taoyuan

International Airport and Taipei Songshan Airport, and Kaohsiung

International Airport in the south.

• A total 35 of the new automated border control system sets will ultimately

be introduced to the customs areas of these locations by the end of May,

said the officials.

• To make use of the new procedures that are expected to largely speed up

and modernize border controls, people have to apply for the service first

and provide his or her biometric data.

• Travelers can either choose to leave a picture of their face or choose to

leave a fingerprint record for future identification purposes.

Source: China Post, January 2011 http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2011/01/27/289245/Govt-to.htm

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2011/01/27/289245/Govt-to.htm





Transport Synergies

Transport Synergies

• GuestLogix, Inc. has been awarded the 2011 ―Innovation of the Year:

Implementation‖ at the 2011 Global AirRail Awards.

• GuestLogix received the award for OnTouch® Ground Connections; a

technology and merchandising platform that allows airlines‘ passengers to

purchase Heathrow Express tickets through their network in a secure and

highly accessible manner.

• As the airline industry continues to battle against price commoditization,

operators have looked to find new ways to generate revenues while creating

a true value-add to their passengers

• GuestLogix generates revenues for both parties and gives increased

service to travelers, providing the sale of Heathrow Express tickets to

airlines‘ passengers prior to arrival at the gate.

• GuestLogix‘ platform also provides access to additional sales channels.

Source: GuestLogix, May 25th 2011 http://www.guestlogix.com/pr/pr_05-25-11.html

http://www.guestlogix.com/pr/pr_05-25-11.html





Facilities

Localising the Experience


• San Francisco‘s T2 is also intended to be a place for travelers to enjoy

themselves.

• There will be installations by world-known artists, children‘s play areas, and

a retail street with shops, a wine bar and a spa.

• ―Gensler‘s design for SFO T2 will upend the generic placelessness of many

airports by creating an authentic Bay Area experience within the terminal‘s

walls,‖ according to the architecture firm‘s press release.

• For business travelers, the terminal offers numerous laptop plug-in stations

and free wireless Internet.

• The airport adopted a goal of making its operations carbon neutral by 2020.

• SFO gives customers discounts for renting fuel-efficient vehicles. At kiosks

in one terminal, passengers can purchase carbon credits to offset their

travels by funding sustainable forestry and renewable energy projects in

Northern California.












• As soon as international passengers depart the aircraft at Christchurch

International Airport, they can expect to experience a multi-sensory journey,

which is designed to reflect New Zealand‘s South Island/

• The unique arrivals experience starts in the airbridge corridors, where

specially commissioned floor-to-ceiling photographs highlight four separate

regions: the West Coast, Abel Tasman National Park, the Mackenzie

Country, and the Antarctic, while a soundtrack of the environment and

evocative smells of the region also feature.

• Passengers are then guided into the terminal building by wall graphics,

which represent the braided rivers of Canterbury, with water fountains also

offering Canterbury‘s famous artesian water.

• ―For us, this is a way to let people know they have arrived at a very special

place,‖ explained Jade Reeves, Christchurch International Airport Limited

(CIAL) Marketing Manager, who was the instigator and driver of the project.

―It also makes the arrivals experience more positive and peaceful.‖

Source: Future Travel Experience, April 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/04/christchurch-airports-sensory-arrivals-experience/

http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/04/christchurch-airports-sensory-arrivals-experience/










• While passengers queue in the Customs area, they can watch a video

presentation of the South Island‘s natural environment on Australasia‘s

largest video wall, which comprises 54 seamlessly linked screens. Even the

baggage reclaim hall is designed to reflect the destination through seasonal

imagery.

• According to Reeves, the project, which took 18 months to complete, has

received a positive response from passengers since its unveiling in late

December, and has succeeded in making the ―passage of travellers through

the airport a more interesting and relaxing experience‖.

• Furthermore, the installation of the Sensory Arrivals Experience has had a

positive knock-on effect for the region‘s tourism industry, which is recovering

following the damage caused by February‘s earthquake.

• ―Travellers are so inspired that they come to our Travel and Tourism desks,

where travel and accommodation can be booked, and request to have a trip

to exactly the place they have just seen on the airbridge, or along the

walkways, or in the Customs area,‖ Reeves explained.

Source: Future Travel Experience, April 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/04/christchurch-airports-sensory-arrivals-experience/










Heathrow Redesigns Lounge

Experience

Heathrow Redesigns Lounge

Experience• A new lounge in Terminal 3 of Heathrow Airport boasts a spa, game rooms,

a la carte dining and even sleeping facilities.

• Phil Cameron, founder and CEO of No.1 Traveller, said: "With a new world-

class lounge, designer bedrooms, shower facilities and invigorating spa

treatments, the passenger's time at the airport can now be another highlight

of their journey.

• "We're delighted to have created this new level of innovation in association

with Heathrow Airport."

• Entry to the new lounge costs £30 on the door per adult, and £25 if booked

in advance online. There are discount rates available for 2-11 year-olds and

toddlers (under two years) can enter for free. The price includes a selection

of hot and cold food, coffee, juice, wine and beer. You can also enjoy the

use of a mini cinema, family room, relaxation areas and Wi-Fi.

Source: Cheap Flights, August 2011 http://news.cheapflights.co.uk/2011/08/heathrow-aims-for-luxury-with-brand-new-lounge/

http://news.cheapflights.co.uk/2011/08/heathrow-aims-for-luxury-with-brand-new-lounge/















Heathrow Redesigns Lounge Experience

• The "Fun areas" for children are surrounded by soundproof glass walls,

ensuring that any noise from these areas will not disturb other passengers.

• At the end of the lounge there is a travel spa service which offers massage,

nail and hair dressing treatments which are individually priced.

• Those looking to get a quick nap will have to wait until September when the

bedroom facility is due to open. Of the 12 bedrooms that will be available,

the rate for an hour in a single bed will be £20 and £30 for a double. There

is a minimum two-hour booking period for the beds. This is the first of its

kind at Heathrow and all rooms will include en suite shower areas, TVs and

mini-bars.

Source: Cheap Flights, August 2011 http://news.cheapflights.co.uk/2011/08/heathrow-aims-for-luxury-with-brand-new-lounge/
















More Amenities

More Amenities

• Amsterdam Airport Schiphol has opened a brand new Airport Park, which

offers passengers a multi-sensory experience designed to mirror the

atmosphere of a city park.

• Travellers are able to relax on the terrace surrounded by greenery, with

images of famous parks all over the world, projections of butterflies, and the

sounds of animals, bicycle bells and playing children adding to the natural

outdoor ambience.

• The Airport Park also features food outlets and shop kiosks. Sustainability

has also been placed at the heart of the project and travellers can recharge

their mobile phone by pedalling energy-generating bicycles, while LED

lighting is also used.

Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/amsterdam-opens-worlds-first-airport-park/

http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/amsterdam-opens-worlds-first-airport-park/











Airport Innovation: Pester

Power?• Reminiscent of artist Carsten Höller's wildly popular installation in the Tate

Modern a few years back, The Slide@T3 at Changi (Singapore) bills itself

as the world's tallest slide in an airport.

• That may well be true, for the thrill-seeker's dream stands four stories (a full

12 metres high) permitting top speeds of up to six metres per second.

• To encourage visitors to experience the thrill, Changi gives consumers two

slide tokens for every SGD 30 they spend at the airport in a single receipt at

duty free stores.

Source: Springwise, June 2010 http://www.springwise.com/tourism_travel/slide_t3/

http://www.springwise.com/tourism_travel/slide_t3/

Leveraging Scale Through

Innovation / Technology

• Continuous research on emerging airport

technologies

• Adopt an ‗open innovation‘ approach

• Create a Future Airport Lab - Attract

partners to pilot innovations

• Partner key R&D actors (e.g. TINA)

• Shape the Agenda - Drive airport

standards

• Create s technology development roadmap

• Establish an innovation fund to support

staff ideas

Hotels Pushing for Better Airport

Facilities

Hotels Pushing for Better Airport Facilities

• When you stay at the Hilton Maldives/Iru Fushi Resort & Spa, Beach House

Maldives A Waldorf Astoria Resort or Conrad Maldives Rangali Island, you

start getting amenities even before you arrive at the hotel. The perks

actually start rolling in when you step off of the plane.

• After you arrive at Maldives International Airport and await your seaplane

transfer to your island getaway, you get to relax in the new VIP seaplane

lounge that gives out a number of freebies.

• These include a complimentary shoulder massages, which are probably

much-needed after a long, cramped international flight.

• Other freebies in the air-conditioned lounge include hot and cold food

prepared by a resident chef, drinks, Wi-Fi, computer stations, toilets,

showers and changing areas. There are indoor and outdoor lounging areas.

• Guests staying at the Beach House Maldives and Conrad Maldives Rangali

Island get a large shared lounge while guests of Hilton Maldives Iru Fushi

Resort & Spa receive their own separate area.

Source: Hotel Chatter, May 2011 http://www.hotelchatter.com/story/2011/5/1/23651/77295/hotels/No_Fair_The_Hilton_Maldives_Hotels_Have_Their_Own_Seaplane_Airport_Lounge

http://www.hotelchatter.com/story/2011/5/1/23651/77295/hotels/No_Fair_The_Hilton_Maldives_Hotels_Have_Their_Own_Seaplane_Airport_Lounge



Hotels Pushing for Better Airport Facilities

• In March 2010, the W Retreat & Spa -Vieques Island opened a welcome

lounge at the tiny, un-air-conditioned Vieques Airport, off the coast of Puerto

Rico.

• Hotel guests are greeted with chilled towels, cocktails and light snacks.

"While they're relaxing, we check them into their rooms, tag and load their

luggage into a Jeep, and then whisk them to the retreat, which is five

minutes away," says the hotel's Nikolai Ursin. Use of the air-conditioned

lounge includes free Wi-Fi and is complimentary for hotel guests at both

arrival and departure.

Source: USA Today, July 2011 http://www.usatoday.com/travel/experts/baskas/2011-07-19-airport-lounges-access-memberships_n.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/experts/baskas/2011-07-19-airport-lounges-access-memberships_n.htm













Retail and

Revenues

What Will the Future of

Onboard Retail Look Like?• In surveying travellers globally, GuestLogix found that more than half would

take advantage of destination-related offers onboard a flight. The company

expect items such as tickets to entertainment, ground transportation,

attractions, tours and other offers that add immediate value to a trip to be in

demand, not just in Asia, but around the world.

• ‗In response, leading onboard duty-free concessionaires will evolve their

business models to include broader shopping categories with the

convenience of home delivery. This will represent the next wave in onboard

innovation that will usher in other important changes in the onboard

experience.‘

• ‗Airlines will need to upgrade their existing POS systems to meet more

stringent global payment standards. As connectivity slowly takes its place

onboard aircraft, payments will incorporate real-time credit card

authorisations to support higher-value transactions.‘

Source: Retail in Asia, April 2011 http://www.retailinasia.com/article/tech/retail-systems/2011/04/boardroom-inflight-retail-20-catching-asia-says-guestlogix

http://www.retailinasia.com/article/tech/retail-systems/2011/04/boardroom-inflight-retail-20-catching-asia-says-guestlogix

















New Business Models

67% - Experience Lounges

67% - Monetize Clients

81% - Pay to Present

48% - Airport Seminars

• A number of new revenue models are available to us. Respondents were asked to

assess the likelihood of six strategies which the travel sector might adopt to generate

new revenues in the face of growing pressure on price and margins.

• 81% think that product vendors will be willing to pay to present to the ‗high net worth‘

individuals who are ‗captive‘ in an airport, flight or hotel room on a holiday.

• Fully 84% expect that vendors will test new products in flight or in customers‘ rooms

and survey their opinions via the seatback TV / room TV. Given the increasing

amount of time passengers spend waiting in airports,

• 67% think it likely that we will see ‗experience lounges‘ in airports that pay high net

worth individuals and business customers to test out new products.

• As marketing strategies become ever more targeted and consumer profiling

techniques are refined, 54% think product manufacturers and marketers will take

proven high spenders on free product testing conventions or holidays.

• As travel agents come under increasing pressure from direct booking, 67% of

respondents think agents will try to monetise their customer base by charging

companies to survey their network of customers and then share the rewards with

customers.

• 48% think airports will run short business and personal development seminars for

customers waiting to travel – for which a fee would be payable.

New Business Models

How to Attract Non-Shoppers?

• Luxury?

• Convenience?

• Choice?

• Inspiration?

• Price?

New Retail Concepts

Reinventing Formats

Chain vs. Independent

Store and Product Locators

Personalisation

Dynamic Billboards

Holographic Displays

Ambient (Embedded) Technologies

(IP in Everything)

Reaching into Retail

Reaching into Retail: Changi

• In March 2010, CAG launched Changi Rewards: a programme that rewards

shoppers for spending at Changi, providing them with even more reason to

shop and dine there.

• In April 2010, CAG launched ‗Let‘s Do Lunch‘ – a two-month dining

promotion at the public areas of Changi, targeted at local residents and

those who work near the airport. Under this promotion, 22 dining

establishments offered enticing weekday set lunches at an attractive rate of

just S$10.

• In May 2010, GST-absorbed shopping was extended to the public areas of

all terminals at Changi (from just Terminal 3) under the Flying or Not, You

Shop We Absorb programme, with about 90% of the stores at the public

areas absorbing GST on all purchases.

• In June 2010, CAG launched the Be a Changi Millionaire shopping

promotion, which saw one lucky patron walking away with the grand prize

of S$1 million at the end of the six-month campaign in January 2011.

Source: Future Airport.com, March 2011 http://www.futureairport.com/articles/025_mar2011/FAI025_qa-changi.pdf

http://www.futureairport.com/articles/025_mar2011/FAI025_qa-changi.pdf



Future of Retail ?

Future of Retail

• By Brett Proud, GuestLogix

• ‗The new in-flight retail environment will be distinguished not by the reselling

of once-included products and services, but rather by embracing and

extending the relationship between airline and passenger. It will be marked

by accurate assessments of consumer needs and wants and by the

fulfillment of these at any (and every) touch point of the journey. It will be

defined by customer experience and framed by retail-informed strategies of

merchandising and product mix.‘

• ‗Creating and promoting a successful customer relationship may be second

nature for ground-bound retailers but for airlines it means re-conceptualising

the passenger.‘

• ‗While the unbundled airfare relies on presenting fee-or-no-fee options to

passengers for basic, almost compulsory, products and services – a

checked bag, a seat assignment – the new approach to in-flight retail puts

the emphasis on the passenger.‘

Source: Travel Tourism Middle East, June 2011 http://www.ttnworldwide.com/GeneralNews.aspx?artid=10521

http://www.ttnworldwide.com/GeneralNews.aspx?artid=10521

Future of Retail

• ‗Within the onboard store, virtual shelves replace physical shelves with

great effect. Products are offered based on predetermined tastes and

preferences, flight duration and destination. A brand can be established and

extended through interaction with this onboard store – much as it has for

most of the retail success stories in the past decade. But in a controlled Wi-

Fi-enabled environment or through the use of smart wireless point-of-sale

devices, passengers can explore the onboard store from the comfort of their

seat as well as interact with in-flight entertainment systems through their

own personal electronic devices.‘

• ‗Airlines also have information on their passengers‘ demographics, itinerary

and immediate purpose (i.e business or leisure) readily

available. Traditional retailers would have to spend countless weeks

collecting data – and probably paying market analysts to interpret it – to get

the sort of valuable information airlines have at their fingertips. Utilising this

data to develop a compelling retail experience is central to the onboard

store approach and bound to become industry standard very soon.‘

Source: Travel Tourism Middle East, June 2011 http://www.ttnworldwide.com/GeneralNews.aspx?artid=10521

http://www.ttnworldwide.com/GeneralNews.aspx?artid=10521

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