role of coal for india
TRANSCRIPT
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The Role of Coal in Future Power Generation in India:
Prospects of Advanced Generation Technologies in a Carbon-Constrained World
Coal and Electricity in India ConferenceSponsored By:
International Energy Agency, Ministry of Coal and Mines & Ministry of Power of the Government of India
22-23 September 2003; New Delhi, India
Manoj K. GuhaFormer Manager, Corporate Technology Development
American Electric PowerColumbus, Ohio, USA
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Presentation Outline
• Electrical generation in a carbon constrained world
• Role of coal in sustainable development in a carbon constrained world
• The role of coal gasification in the Hydrogen Economy
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India’s Energy Strategy
Vision:
To meet the energy needs of all segments of India’s population in the most efficient and cost-effective manner while ensuring long-term sustainability
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Provide Clean and Affordable Energy to All
• Promote the design and establishment of decentralized energy service providers
• Design a basket of differentiated services available at differential prices to empower poorer customers choice
• Re-assign energy subsidy allocations towards the provision of micro-credit
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Ensure Security of Energy Supply
• Map all energy resources and develop a databank of technology choices, efficiencies and costs to facilitate evaluation of trade-offs between alternative energy paths
• Investments in energy systems and efficiency improvements
• Encourage commercially-driven goal-oriented R&D efforts
• Public R&D funds towards reducing energy delivery costs to the poor
• Prepare energy plans to meet unforeseen emergency situations
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Improve the Efficiency of the Energy System
• Open up energy markets to allow more players in all market segments
• Adequately empower independent regulatory authorities
• Adopt uniform pricing principles• De-link social function of subsidy
provision from energy pricing decisions• Institutionalize preparation of information
systems, communication and education programs promoting efficiency
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Reduce Adverse Environmental Impacts of
Energy Use
• Accelerate development and market adoption of environmentally friendly technologies
• Strategically exploit opportunities arising out of international agreements and the WTO to meet energy goals
• Establish and stringently enforce appropriate environmental standards
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Comparison of Per Capita Energy Consumption
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Energy and Electricity Demand and the Indian Economy
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Power Generation Capacity
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India’s Energy Consumption Pattern
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Electricity Capacity Additions: Past and Projected
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Comparison of Capacity and Energy Generation (Latest Data, 1997)
28.21003,649.30779.8Total
74.0 (0.4)1.6NA59.512.9All Other Renewables
35.0 (0.1)0.4NA14.32.9Geothermal
~~NA-4.019.3Hydro Electric Pumped Storage
14.3 (2.8)9.8NA358.979.9Conventional Hydro
29.5 (5.2)18.510,320673.799.7Nuclear
153.4Dual-fired
46.4Petroleum 20.9 (5.2)18.510,600673.9
50.2Natural Gas
38.8 (14.5)51.29,9601,873.00315.1Coal
USA
3.06100405.696.35Total
~~NA0.2< 0.25All Non-Hydro Renewables
2.7 (0.5)16.9NA68.421.0Hydro
0.3 (0.06)1.811,8007.42.0Nuclear
6.8 (2.5)81.315,500329.673.1Fossil (coal, gas,
petroleum)
India
% of Total World Generation
% Total Within the Country
Average Heat Rate Btu/kWh
BkWHCapacity
GWFuel and/or Generation
SourceCountry
Generation
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Energy Consumption by Sector
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Electricity, Transportation & CO2
• Electricity accounts for about 40% of end use energy and 36% of CO2 production in the U.S.
• Transportation accounts for about 37% energy consumption and 33% of CO2 in the U.S.(Carbon emissions in India from these sources do not appear to be that much different from U.S. on percentage basis) (Except for passing comments, I will not cover
transportation sector in my presentation)
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Cost of Additional Megawatt of Capacity
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Low-Carbon Energy Technologies
• DSM and efficiency improvements are powerful tools, but focus is on technologies for future power plants
• Many low/no-carbon technologies available– Renewables– Natural Gas– Nuclear– Coal
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Renewables: An Important Niche
• Carbon-free technologies are promising
• Wide variety of options– Solar
– Wind
– Biomass
– Hydropower
• Constrained by intermittency, reliability, cost
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U.S. Non-Hydro Renewable Generation
EIA AEO 2001 (2000-2020); AEP Projection (2020- 2030)
300
50
01995 2000 2030
Gen
erat
ion
, BkW
h
Year
150
100
250
200
2010 2020
Wind
Solar Photovoltaic
Solar Thermal
Wood / Biomass
Municipal Solid Waste
Geothermal
AnnualGrowth Rates
2000 - 2030
2.6%
12.6%
2.4%
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
Non-Hydro Renewables% Total Generation
19952000201020202030
1.4%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.8%
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Maximum Potential of Non-Hydro Renewable Generation
Extension of production credits to all Renewables past 2010AEP Projection (2020- 2030)
300
50
02000 2030
Gen
erat
ion
, BkW
h
Year
150
100
250
200
2010 2020
Wind
Solar Photovoltaic
Solar Thermal
Wood / Biomass
Municipal Solid Waste
Geothermal
AnnualGrowth Rates
2000 - 2030
9.0%
19.6%
5.7%
5.1%
5.0%
4.2%
Non-Hydro Renewables% Total Generation
2000201020202030
1.6%3.7%5.5%6.0%
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Limits to Renewables
• Even with accelerated expansion of non-hydro Renewables, potential market penetration remains small in near- to mid-term in the U.S.
• Prohibitively high capital costs continue to constrain renewable deployment in developing countries
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Natural Gas: A Near-Term Remedy
• Dramatically increased natural gas use is primary strategy for U.S. GHG reductions
• Several technologies available– Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC)– Cogenerations/Combined Heat and Power
(CHP)– Distributed Generation (microturbines, etc.)
• However, natural gas requires extensive infrastructure and abundant fuel reserves
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Nuclear Power: A Zero-Carbon Option
• Many disadvantages, but nuclear offers a plentiful source of zero-carbon electricity
• Technological advances to help address concerns– Safety– Capital costs– Economic competitiveness
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Coal: The Foundation of Electric Power
• Coal fuels majority of power generation in U.S. and many developing nations
• High carbon content can be offset by low prices and technological improvements– Near-term
• Advanced Pulverized Coal-Fired (PCF) steam cycles• Fluidized Bed Combustion
– Long-term• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)• Carbon Capture and Sequestration (based on IGCC)• Co-production of energy, heat, and fuels (“EnergyPlexes”)
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Coal-Based Energy Technologies I
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Coal-Based Energy Technologies II
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Heat Rates ComparisonCoal-Based Technologies - Conventional and Advanced
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
ExistingCapacity
PCF w/FGD Adv. PCFw/FGD
PFBC GCC Adv. PFBC Adv. GCC AG w/FuelCell
Hea
t R
ate,
Btu
/kW
h
PCF w/FGD – Pulverized Coal-fired with Flue Gas DesulfurizationPFBC – Pressurized Fluidized Bed CombustionGCC – Gasification Combined CycleAG w/Fuel Cell – Advanced Gasification with Fuel Cell
10,3
59
9,32
0
8,50
0
8,32
0
7,80
0
6,83
0
6,25
0
5,73
0
Generation Technology40% CO2reduction
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H2: The New Champion?…
• The ultimate energy carrier– Most abundant element on earth
– Sources are uniformly distributed
– Clean combustion
• But where will the Hydrogen come from?
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Hydrogen Production Today
• Steam methane reforming
• Electrolysis
• Partial oxidation of fossil fuels
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Limits to Steam Reforming
• Over 80% of global hydrogen is produced via steam reforming of methane
• CH4 + 2H2O → CO2 + 4H2
• Endothermic reaction, requiring high energy inputs
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More Limits to Steam Reforming
• Competing uses for natural gas could drive up prices– Heating
– Power generation
– Industrial processes
– Chemical production
• Natural gas is unevenly distributed
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Limits to Electrolysis
• 2H2O → 2H2 + 2O2
• Good for distributed applications
• Opens door for Renewables and Nuclear
• Less efficient than alternatives
• Less cost-effective than alternatives
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Coal to Hydrogen
• Coal can contribute to this goal as an integral part of the emerging hydrogen system, because it is:– Abundant – Affordable ($1.10/106 BTU)– Reliable– Domestic– Improveable
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Rationale for Coal-based H2
• Coal can, and must, become a leading source of hydrogen– Gasification
• Releases the H2 in coal, unlocks the H2 in water
• Coal + H2O + O2 → Syngas (H2, CO) + CO2 + … ($3.75/106 BTU) provided gasification technology can be commercialized at or below $1,000/kW.
• Syngas can be further processed to generate pure H2
• Key developing countries are coal-rich, with every intent of using it
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Steps to Success
• For coal to play a role in the hydrogen economy, we must:– Improve gasification systems
• Hot gas clean-up (particulates, H2S)
• High efficiency gas turbines
– Develop carbon capture techniques
– Create carbon storage options
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Normalized Costs of Electricity for Different Technologies*
*Levelized Costs at 65% capacity factor for all technologies, except NGCT, which is at 40%
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Breakeven Capital Costs of IGCC using Coal Fuel
Lev
eliz
ed C
ost
of
Ele
ctri
city
($M
WH
)
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Breakeven Capital Costs of IGCC using Petroleum Coke
Lev
eliz
ed C
ost
of
Ele
ctri
city
($M
WH
)
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Integrated Energy Facility (Trigeneration)
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Preliminary Economics of a Trigeneration FacilityAssumptions
– 100,000 barrels crude oil/day facility
– 75% of energy from crude oil goes to produce premium fuel (gasoline, kerosene, aviation fuel)
– Refining of high distillate fuel is 72% efficient
– Remaining 25% of energy from crude oil goes to produce heavy distillate residues and/or petroleum cokes. These could be utilized in an entrained bed gasification process to generate electricity and steam
– Premium Fuel, MGED 3.2
– Chemical Feedstock, GED 200,000
– Electric Power, MW 750
– Max. Load Factor for Electricity 75%
– Effective Energy Utilization 85%
Note: These calculations do not include additional steam that can be generated in addition to what is required to operate the refinery and chemical production plant
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Preliminary Economics of a Trigeneration Facility
EconomicsA) Operating Costs
• Total Capital Requirements $3 bil1
• Annual Operating Cost $120 mil• Annual Crude Oil Costs $550 mil• Total Annual Operating Costs $1,120 mil2
B) Revenue• Revenue from Premium Fuel3 $935 mil• Revenue from Chemical Feedstock4 $50 mil• Total Annual Revenue $985 mil• Revenue needed from electricity sales $135 mil
C) Cost of Electricity• Annual required electricity revenue $135 mil• Total annual electricity generation 4.93x106 MWH• Cost of electricity (busbar) $27.3/MWH
Notes: 1. Best estimate as per discussion with oil companies & $1 billion for power plant cost2. Projected from refinery data with 15-year recovery period3. Assumes current price of petroleum fuel (80 cents/gal.)4. Assumes average price of 72 cents/gal
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Energy Use vs Energy R&D
• Coal & natural gas R&D funding must increase
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Challenges Facing Coal for Future Power Generation
A. Environmental Issues• Proposed legislation of 0.15 lb/MBTU limit on NOX emissions• Proposed PM2.5 legislation that may require additional 60% SO2
removal over CAAA of 1990• Global climate change and CO2 emissions• Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) & air toxics, including Hg
emissions control at the ppb level
B. Infrastructure-related Issues
C. Deregulation/Restructuring Issues:• Will the future market price of electricity be able to absorb these
additional costs? • Can coal-fired generation be competitive in the future under
these scenarios?
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Conclusions
• Fossil fuels will remain the dominant energy source in foreseeable future
• Environmental constraints demand cleaner, more efficient utilization
• Near to mid-term answer for coal is gasification
• Coal gasification could accelerate the Hydrogen Economy.
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Appendix
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Appendix:Power Capacity in the Baseline
Scenario
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Appendix: Power Generation in the Baseline Scenario
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Appendix: Investment Requirements for Generation
by Scenario
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Appendix: Total Discounted Costs, Emissions, and Fuel
Consumption