DR.VINCENT ONGUSO OEBA

voeba@yahoo.co.uk or voeba@kefri.org

Mobile: +254-720-475053

+254-733-244911

ROLE OF FORESTRY IN CLIMATE CHANGESustainable Forest Management, Mitigation and Adaptation & Initiatives

to Encourage Communities to Preserve Forests

Executive climate change and carbon trading course 12-16th Nov 2012, KEFRI: Africa Carbon

Exchange

1.0. Introduction

Forests play a significant role in improving people’s livelihoods

directly and indirectly through provision of: Wood and non-wood forest products.

Importantly, they regulate climate change through carbon

sequestration.

They stabilize soil, treat waste, provide habitats, and offer

opportunity for recreation.

These benefits are on continuous decrease due to reduction of area

under trees

Climate Change Phenomena

11/16/2012

Introduction-Evidence of climate change

Melting of Ice Indicators & Effect

Mt. Kenya lost 92% of its ice mass while Mt. Kilimanjaro lost 82% which comprises an important source of river streams and springs

There are changes in the ecosystem and loss of biodiversity, spread of infectious diseases such as malaria since increase of temperature favours the breeding of disease carrying insects, animals and microbes in the places they did not exist before.

More frequent and severe with time like La Nina of 1999-2001

Flooding-Budalangi, Nzoia

Severe socio-economic impact: loss of life, livestock, migration, poor yield

11/16/2012

2.0. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ON FORESTS

2.0. Global Impact of CC on Forest

Climate

factor

Cell level Organism

level

Species level Ecosystem

level

CO2

increase

-Photosynthetic rate

increase

-Stomatal conductance

reduction

-Growth rate increase

-Water use efficiency

increase

-Seed production

increase

-Decreased seed mortality

-Increased recruitment

Period for individuals to

reach maturity

-Changes in individual

density?

-Biomass production

increase

-Alteration in species

competitiveness

-Changes in species

composition

Temperature

increase

-Photosynthesis increase

or decrease

-Photosynthetic period can

increase

-Transpiration increase

-Primary production

positive or negative

changes

-Seed production changes

Regeneration rate changes

Possible increase in tree

mortality.

Negative consequences for

species sensitive to temperature

changes

Alterations in species

Competitiveness.

Species’ composition

Changes.

Soil mineralization

Increase.

Rainfall

regime

changes

Growth rate decrease Seed mortality rate

increase

Increase of mature

individuals’

mortality rate

Alternation in species

competitiveness

Species composition

changes

Impact of Climate Change on Forests: Regional & National Perspectives

Forest and climate interaction: Globally

The climate is an important determinant of the geographical distribution, composition and productivity of forests, species populations and migration, the occurrence of pests and diseases and of forests regeneration.

Forests expected to respond to changes in temperature and to increases /decreases in precipitation brought about on by climate change

Changes in different climate variables would result in adjustments at different levels

Projected impacts of CC: Africa

In the case of Africa, changes induced by climate change are also likely to result in species rangeshifts, as well as in changes in tree productivity, adding stress to forest ecosystems.

ASIA Boreal forests in North Asia would move

further north. A projected large increase in taiga is likely to displace tundra, while the northward movement of the tundra will in turn decrease polar deserts.

Large populations of many other species could also be extirpated as a result of the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation.

The areal coverage of broad-leaved Korean pine forests is projected to decrease by 20 to 35% with a significant northward shift. About 90% of the suitable habitat for a dominant forest species, beech tree, in Japan could disappear by the end of this century.

The overall impact of climate change on the forest ecosystems of Pakistan could be negative.

Increasing intensity and spread of forest fires in North and South-East Asia were largely related to rises in temperature and declines in precipitation in combination with increasing intensity of land uses.

The uncertainty lies on whether the expected increase in temperature would beenough to trigger more frequent and severe fires despite the projected increase in precipitation. One study on the impacts of climate change on fires show that for an average temperature increase of 1°C, the duration of wild fire season in North Asia could increase by 30%, which could have varying adverse and beneficial impacts on biodiversity, forest structure and composition, outbreaks of pest and diseases, wildlife habitat quality and other key forest ecosystem

functions.

National Perspective-Kenya

Do we have any data on impact of CC on Forests in Kenya?

We need to document

evidence of climate of

change on Kenyan forests.

How do we start?

What are the KEFRI

strategies?

Take home message on Impact of CC on Forests

Any impact on the forests, in turn, could have profound implications for traditional livelihood, industry, biodiversity, soil and water resources, and hence, agricultural productivity.

Moreover, these climate change induced effects would aggravate the existing stresses due to non-climate factors such as land use changes and the unsustainable exploitation of natural resources.

Impact of changes in forest types due to climate change is expected to be larger on communities who depend on forests for livelihoods and subsistence.

Communities who are more vulnerable due to their nature of livelihoods also face additional impacts due to their poor socioeconomic condition, low asset holdings and poor access to infrastructure

3.0. OPPORTUNITIES: Mitigation

and Adaptation

Trees and Mitigation of climate change

11/16/2012PHD DEFENCE KENYATTA UNIVERSITY

Illustration of various changes in forest cover, and corresponding emissions and removals of carbon

Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern Africa –

Mitigating Climate Change

Ecosystem / Forest Type Average C Stock (t ha-1)

Miombo Woodlands 60

Coastal Forests (excluding mangroves) 95

Evergreen Catchment Forests 195

Mangrove Forests 180 Non Marine Wetlands 50

Acacia Savanna woodlands 30 Source: Munishi 2010, Munishi et al 2011, Zahabu, 2006, Katoomba Group, 2009

Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern

Africa – Mitigating Climate Change

Protection of existing forests – conserves the existing carbon stocks

Afforestation, reforestation, and forest productivity improvements – to enhance existing carbon stocks

Restoration of degraded lands by tree /shrub planting –enhances existing C stocks on land

Substitution of fossil fuels by sustainably produced fuel-wood

Forests/Woodlands of Eastern and Southern Africa –

Mitigating Climate Change

Address the causes of deforestation and forest

degradation:

provide affordable and sustainable alternative energy sources gas, biogas and improved utilization of fuel-wood and bio-fuels avoid shifting cultivation through conservation tillage, use of

fertilisers and manure, and agroforestry Small holder forestry to meet timber/other forest product

demands

Embark on better land use management through

REDD+ policy

3.1. Climate Compatible Development What is climate compatible development?

This is the development that minimises the harm caused by climate impacts, while

maximising the many human development opportunities presented by low emissions,

more resilient future

Climate change and responses to it are changing patterns of:

Innovation

Trade

Production

Population distribution and

Risk in complex ways

This is creating new development landscape for policy makers, who need to nurture and

sustain economic growth and social development in the face of multiple threats &

uncertainties while also cutting emissions or keeping them low

Climate compatible development (CCD) goes one step further by

asking policy makers to consider “triple win” strategies: low

emissions; build resilience & promote development simultaneously.

CCD: A new development landscape

CRD: Climate resilient Development Source: Improved from Climate & Development Knowledge Network

Development Strategies:

Aligns the challenges posed by CC:

exploit opportunities of carbon mkt;

demand for cleaner energy fuels

Adaptation strategies:

take advantage of climate

impact at all scales: create high

levels of economic & livelihood

diversity, promote skills,

learning & innovation, reduce

dependence on ecosystems

services, reduce inequality,

involve participation of

stakeholdersMitigation Strategies:

using less energy, generatting more energy from

low emissions, protecting carbon stores such as

forests, encourage development of low emissions

technologies & provide incentives to discourage

high emissions investment

Climate Compatible developmentLow carbon

development CRD

Co-benefits

Example of Pro-poor low emissions

development in Guyana

Guyana’s 2009 low carbon development strategy on payments for

preserving its rainforest through REDD+ mechanism. The payment

will be used to invest in : clean energy (hydropower), flooded-related adaptation & developing village

economies including strengthening health & education

In 2020: low carbon infrastructure, increase employment in low

carbon sectors & secure new poverty reduction opportunities for

forest dependent & indigenous communities

Has benefited from strong domestic leadership, key bilateral financing

relationship with Norway and support from World Bank’s Carbon

Partnership Facility

Take Home Message

To achieve climate compatible development, policy makers need to:

Develop national and sub national governance systems, including

legislative, institutional architecture, regulatory and accountability

measures that can take advantage of combining efforts to lower

emissions or keep emissions low, build resilience, grow & develop

Integrate measures to build resilience & reduce risk into

development & low emissions with strategies

Ensure transition to resilient low emissions growth have significant

benefits for poor people

Acknowledge and plan for the threats & opportunities associated

with a new international, climate related development landscape

3.2. The Green Economy

What is Green Economy (GE)?

UNEP defines GE as one that results in improved human well being

and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and

ecological scarcities.

GE can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient

and socially inclusive

In GE, growth income should be driven by public and private

investments that reduce carbon emissions & pollution, enhances

energy & resource efficiency & prevent the loss of biodiversity &

ecosystems services

Green Growth: Implications for

Development Planning

Lower GHG intensity

Economic growth

Human development & poverty reductionEnhanced

Biodiversity & Ecosystem

Climate change resilient

Tackling climate

changeLow-carbon

growth

GREEN

GROWTHValuing

natural

capital

Strengthening

communities &

habitats

Equitable

growth

Regional Training Course on Mitigating Climate Change in

Africa Through Social Forestry 24th Oct.to 25th Nov.

2011

Case study: Estimated returns from sale of wood &

Carbon credits-Kenyan plantation forests

Site

Tree

species

Stand density ha-1

Age (years)

Income (Ksh) from AGB

tCO2e ha-1

Income (Ksh) from clearfelling m3ha-

1

Kiambu C. lusitanica 800 8 268,859 323,694

590 14 603,330 775,773

532 24 1,338,740 1,821,856

E. saligna 1238 7 738,409 947,738

250 10 152,913 185,515

150 12 559,470 581,266

P. patula 550 6 383,774 420,315

200 10 352,055 358,023

506 13 947,698 966,042

60 32 560,638 636,229

Discourse on Carbon pricing Example:

a 32 age Pinus patula stand of 60 trees per ha at Kiambu had an

average DBH of 59 cm. This yielded an average cost of Ksh. 9,837

per tree at clearfelling having absorbed about 5.84 tCO2 an

equivalent of 182 kg of carbon dioxide per year.

This implied that the minimum value a tree investor could get from

carbon sale at unit cost of US $10 (Ksh.800) would be about

Ksh.4,672 as compared to Ksh. 9,837 implying that the expected

minimum cost of a carbon credit should be around US $21 (Ksh.

1,685) at this age of tree stand and site.

Enabling condition for GE Establish sound regulatory frame works

Prioritizing government investment and spending in areas that

stimulate the greening of economic sectors

Limiting spending in areas that deplete natural capital

Employing taxes and market based instruments to shift

consumer preference and promote green investment &

innovation

Invest in capacity building and training

Strengthening international governance

Financing the Green Economy

This can be mobilized by smart public policy and innovative

financing mechanisms

Rapid growth of capital markets, growing green orientation of these

markets, evolution of emerging market instruments such as carbon

finance & micro finance & the green funds established are opening

space foe large scale financing of a global green economic

transformation.

UNDP and UNEP in support of national efforts to reduce

deforestation and forest degradation and enhance forest carbon-

stocks along with REDD+ mechanisms can provide an important

vehicle to drive green economy.

Donor pledges to REDD+ partnership, including UN REDD

programme, REDD+ partnership, Forest Carbon Facility, the GEF

and Forest investment programme among others amount to USD 5

billion through 2012.

PES hold wider promises