role of interaction design & data science in crisis response · 2020. 6. 12. · • gapple api...
TRANSCRIPT
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Role of Interaction Design & Data Science in Crisis Response
Karri-Pekka LaaksoLead Designer (Interaction), Reaktor
Antti HonkelaAssociate Professor at the Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki and Coordinator of Research Programme in Privacy-preserving and Secure AI, Finnish Center for Artificial Intelligence (FCAI)
June 11, 2020
CS-E4002: Human-Centred Research and Design in Crisis
Aalto University
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Designing the Ketju Contact Tracing App:Interaction Design, Technology and Privacy Implications
11.6.2020
Karri-Pekka Laakso, Reaktor
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● Officially started on Mon 23rd March, 2020● 6 designers
● 3 from Reaktor (UX, graphic, UX) <= me● 3 from Futurice (UX, graphic, UX)
In cooperation with
ketjusovellus.fi
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Karri-Pekka Laakso
M.Sc. (eng), Helsinki University of Technology
#UX #interaction_design #field_studies #visualizations
#scala #js #java #html_css #node #bash
#public_speaking #teaching
#family #gymnastics #acrobatics #orienteering #piano
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Social Distance
Susan AnnBret MikeLisa Xavier Yvonnespouse friend same workplace next in metro, shop, …
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Who can Susan recall / name?
Susan AnnBret MikeLisa Xavier Yvonnespouse friend same workplace next in metro, shop, …
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Who would Susan share with?
Susan AnnBret MikeLisa Xavier Yvonnespouse friend same workplace next in metro, shop, …
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Who knows Susan by name?
Susan AnnBret MikeLisa Xavier Yvonnespouse friend same workplace next in metro, shop, …
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Technology and privacy● Location
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Technology and privacy● Location● Bluetooth contacts
“Susan” “Lisa”
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Technology and privacy● Location● Bluetooth contacts● Anonymous Bluetooth contacts
“0x00a78” “0x81eaa”
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Technology and privacy● Location● Bluetooth contacts● Anonymous Bluetooth contacts● Anonymous Bluetooth contacts
changing in time (DP^3T, Google Apple Exposure Notification API)
“0x00a78” “0x81eaa”“0xb2312”“0x9124a”
15 min15 min
15 min
… …
“0xa292f”“0x93d51”
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Technology and privacy
I have met9:05 - 9:12 “0x00a78”9:12 - 9:17 “0xb2312”
“0x00a78”“0xb2312”“0x9124a”
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Centralized model● Authorities know the exposed
immediately● Gather names & phone numbers
=> call, interview, quarantine
● Privacy?
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1) Citizens load the Ketju app from the App Store and put it on every time they leave home.
2) When users A and B meet, their phones register a contact when are close enough for time long enough (for example <5 m, >15 min).
C is too far away to register a contact.
4) A has symptoms and the doctor order a test. 3) The app stores the
contact totally anonymously: no personal or location information is stored.
5) The doctor calls to tell that the test result is positive and asks, if A uses the Ketju App.
6) The doctor gives A a PIN code, which A enters to the Ketju app. The app informs the central server that A has been infected.
7) The app of B notices that one of its contacts has reported a positive test result. The app tells B about the exposure and that she should contact the local health center.
C has had no contact with A and thus nothing happens.
Distributed model
8) Only the user knows about the possible infection, since the data at the server and at the phone in anonymous.
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Distributed model● Susan tells the system that she is
sick (voluntary)● Lisa gets a notification
=> take a test (voluntary)=> self-quarantine (voluntary)
● Verification of exposure?● Granularity of exposure time?● Contact tracing?
You have been exposed yesterday
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Distributed modelAuthorities can only give the release code
=> no help for contact tracing=> no official quarantine (≠ self quanrantine)
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Hybrid models• People voluntarily release information
to authorities, e.g.• contacts with a sick person• exposures of a sick person• their contact info• …
• Legal issues• Privacy issues• Gapple API issues
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Iterations
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Chaotic surroundings
politics
law
bluetooth
design
communications
media
protocols databases
contract tracing
infectious diseases
doctors
users
visualizations
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produce 330 screenshots for users
participate in writing the reportorganize 250 database files
Do what is needed
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The power of realistic cases
Susan
≠
Everything is easier: talking, deducing, …
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Cost / benefit
x% install * y% use * z% contact noticed * i% user notices * j% contacts the authority * …
vs. cost of implementation & maintenance?
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Privacy-preserving contact statistics collection using COVID-19contact tracing apps
Antti Honkela1 and Tejas Kulkarni2
Finnish Center for Artificial Intelligence FCAI1 University of Helsinki
2 Aalto University
Human-Centred Research and Design in Crisis11 June 2020
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Outline
A cartoon of an epidemic
Contact tracing apps
Privacy-preserving collection of contact statistics
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Disclaimer: while I talk about mathematical epidemic models, I am not anepidemiologist. Listeners beware.
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A cartoon of an epidemic
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
I Population divided to classes of individuals based on infection status
I Infection spreads when S has sufficiently strong contact with I
I Current growth rate of the epidemic measured by reproductive numberRe ≈ ratio of new infections over recoveries
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A cartoon of an epidemic
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
0 50 100 150 200 250Days
0.0
0.5
1.0
Frac
tion
of p
opul
atio
n
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A cartoon of an epidemic
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
I Modelling by fitting the curve to observed confirmed cases / hospitalisations /deaths / ...
I Estimation delay: changes in infection rate only show in tests and hospitalisationsafter a week or more
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A cartoon of an epidemic
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
Data
I Modelling by fitting the curve to observed confirmed cases / hospitalisations /deaths / ...
I Estimation delay: changes in infection rate only show in tests and hospitalisationsafter a week or more
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Managing an epidemic
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
I Epidemic management activities aim at limiting contacts between S and II Social distancing limits all contactsI Contact tracing aims to quarantine exposed individuals before they become infective
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Managing an epidemic
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
I Epidemic management activities aim at limiting contacts between S and II Social distancing limits all contactsI Contact tracing aims to quarantine exposed individuals before they become infective
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Contact tracing and mobile apps
I Classical contact tracing works remarkably well, but is very labour intensive
I Many countries are developing mobile apps to assist the activity
I Privacy is an absolute requirementI Typical mode of operation (e.g. DP-3T, Google/Apple):
I No location data gathered (low utility, bad privacy)I Use Bluetooth to record random identifiers broadcast by nearby devicesI Identifiers change relatively frequentlyI Recorded recent contacts shared only when user is diagnosed positive
I Discussion to decide between decentralised vs. centralised mode of operation
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Contact tracing app theory
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
I Assuming 50% of population use the app and all detected exposed individuals areperfectly quarantined, we prevent 25% of potential future infections
I E.g. reduce Re = 1.2→ Re = 0.9
I Over 70% users needed for theoretical 50% efficiencyI E.g. reduce Re = 1.8→ Re = 0.9
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Contact tracing app theory
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
I Assuming 50% of population use the app and all detected exposed individuals areperfectly quarantined, we prevent 25% of potential future infections
I E.g. reduce Re = 1.2→ Re = 0.9
I Over 70% users needed for theoretical 50% efficiencyI E.g. reduce Re = 1.8→ Re = 0.9
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Contact tracing app theory
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
QuarantinedQ
I Assuming 50% of population use the app and all detected exposed individuals areperfectly quarantined, we prevent 25% of potential future infections
I E.g. reduce Re = 1.2→ Re = 0.9
I Over 70% users needed for theoretical 50% efficiencyI E.g. reduce Re = 1.8→ Re = 0.9
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Opportunity
I Contact tracing apps collect data of close contacts in the population
I Collecting statistical information of contact frequencies would provide data forepidemic modelling as well as monitoring and planning other interventions (e.g.school and business closures)
I While such statistical information is not very sensitive, strong privacy protection isstill necessary; collection should be opt-in
I Such data likely to be useful with fewer users: even at 30% use we would expectto see 30% of contacts of each user and can correct that from known rate of users
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Asking sensitive questions: Randomised response (Warner, 1965)
Assume respondents are instructed to answer a potentially sensitive query (e.g. wereyou in contact with more than 10 individuals yesterday?) as follows:
1. Flip a coin in secret.
2. If tails, then respond truthfully.
3. If heads, then flip a second coin and respond “Yes” if heads and “No” if tails.
I Outcome: the answer is flipped with probability 14
I Everyone gets plausible deniability: “It was just the coins”
I Statistics can be estimated from population responses by compensating for thenoise
I Probabilistic loss of privacy: “Yes” response makes it more likely your trueresponse was “Yes”
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Differential privacy (DP; Dwork et al., 2006)
I Provides protection against adversaries with side information
I Degrades gracefully under repeated use
I Invariant to post-processing
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Proposal: Locally DP collection of contact statistics
I Using local DP (LDP) to collect population histogram of number of contacts
I Data are anonymised before they leave the user device
I Privacy guarantee: even if you see a user’s report knowing it came from her, youcan only guess what she answered
I Rapidly changing identifiers make collection of full daily statistics difficultI Collect e.g. maximum number of contacts over 30 min period each day instead
I Observed data fed to a Bayesian model for denoising, integrating responses frommultiple days in a probabilistic model
I Produces real-time data on behaviour changes and effects of changes tointerventions and guidelines
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Extended data collection
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
Data
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Extended data collection
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
Data
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More about privacy
I Caveat: theoretical privacy guarantees will degrade over repeated data collectionI Using fresh data for each report mitigates the impactI Ethical review of costs vs. benefits still needed
I Introducing secure shuffling to eliminate linking reports to individuals tightens theprivacy guarantee by approximately factor
√n for n users
I Basically eliminates privacy concerns even after repeated collectionI NB: even breaking the shuffler would not completely compromise the privacy
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Preliminary simulation results
0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Mea
n de
viat
ion
in e
xpec
ted
valu
e of
rec
over
ed h
isto
gram
=2.0, N=1000000, D=16
0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.20.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Mea
n de
viat
ion
in e
xpec
ted
valu
e of
rec
over
ed h
isto
gram
=2.0, N=1000000, D=32
Error in estimating the mean of a simulated population using LDP histogramestimation with D bins. Simulated using geometric distribution with true mean 2.0.Bars show MAE of 10 repeats, error bars show std over the repeats.
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Conclusion
SusceptibleS
ExposedE
InfectiousI
RecoveredR
DeadD
Data
I COVID-19 pandemic has just started, still long way to vaccine or herd immunity
I Daily contact statistics observed by contact tracing apps could provide directmeasures of the most important spreading mechanism, enabling more timelymodelling
I Differential privacy provides the means to collect these data under strong privacyguarantees to the users
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Next Tuesday:Why Contact Tracing is Neither Secure or Privacy-Preserving
Janne Lindqvist, Prof. at the Department of Computer Science, Aalto University