roles of remote sensing for influenza risk prediction and early
TRANSCRIPT
Roles of Remote Sensing for Influenza Risk Prediction and Early Warning
Roles of Remote Sensing for Influenza Risk Prediction and Early Warning
Richard Kiang, Radina Soebiyanto, Farida AdimiNASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Richard Kiang, Radina Soebiyanto, Farida AdimiNASA Goddard Space Flight Center
GEO Health & Environment Community of Practice WorkshopCentre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES)
Paris, France, 27-29 July 2010
GEO Health & Environment Community of Practice WorkshopCentre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES)
Paris, France, 27-29 July 2010
Epidemic-prone acute respiratory diseases have no borders, and can be spread rapidly around the world. Global, coordinated surveillance & control efforts are essential.
Epidemic-prone acute respiratory diseases have no borders, and can be spread rapidly around the world. Global, coordinated surveillance & control efforts are essential.
2003 SARSSpread to 37 countries in weeks
2004 H5N1 Avian InfluenzaSpread to 62 countries since 2004. There are still frequent outbreaks in Indonesia, Egypt, and some Southeast Asian countries.
2009 H1N1 PandemicSpread to 48 countries in a month despite heightened public awareness and substantial preventive and control efforts
Cilia being invaded by flu virusSource: National Geographic Source: CDC
hemaglutinin
neuraminidase
Antigenic driftmutations in HA & NA
Antigenic shiftnovel genes through reassortment
Animals to humansjumping across species
Seasonal epidemicnew strains continue to appear
Pandemicse.g., 1918 H1N1 Spanish Flu, 1957 H2N2 Asian Flu, 1968 H3N2 Hong Kong Flu
Pandemic potentialsH5N1 Avian Flu, 2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” pandemic
Genetic & Antigenic Variation Among Influenza Viruses
Genetic & Antigenic Variation Among Influenza Viruses
First appeared in Hong Kong in 1996-1997, HPAI has spread to approximately 60 countries. More than 250 million poultry were lost.
Worldwide the mortality rate is 53%.
Co-infection of human and avian influenza in humans may produce deadly strains of viruses through genetic reassortment.
On average one major pandemic occurred in each century. 90 years have passed since the 1918 pandemic (0.675M deaths in the US, and 21-50M deaths worldwide).
H5N1 AI — THE PROBLEMH5N1 AI — THE PROBLEM
DISTRIBUTION OF H5N1 HUMAN CASESDISTRIBUTION OF H5N1 HUMAN CASES
Source: WHO. Cases from 2003 to June 19, 2008.
Highly Pathogenic AI Cases Since January 2010Highly Pathogenic AI Cases Since January 2010
FAO EMPRESFAO EMPRES
HUMANS
POULTRY TRADE
wild birdsdomestic birds
ducks & geese
poultry, products, feed, waste, personnel,
equipment
BIRD TRADE MIGRATORY BIRDS
POULTRYSectors 1&2 Sectors 3&4
H5N1 TRANSMISSION PATHWAYSH5N1 TRANSMISSION PATHWAYS
LPAI spill over
HPAI spill back
human flu virus
pandemic strain
reassortment
?
Asia43% thru poultry14% thru mig. birds
Analysis of Global Spread of H5N1 through Phylogenetic Evidence, Poultry & Bird Trades,
And Bird Migration Data
Analysis of Global Spread of H5N1 through Phylogenetic Evidence, Poultry & Bird Trades,
And Bird Migration Data
Africa 25% thru poultry38% thru mig. birds
Europe87% thru mig. birds
US
Most likely thru poultry to surrounding countries first, then thru migratory birds to US mainland
Source: Kilpatrick et al., PNAS 2006.
Objective 4
Objective 3 Objective 2
Objective 1
OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES
Perform empirical AI outbreak risk analyses based on outbreak history, environmental parameters, and socio-economic factors.
Identify spatiotemporal risk for AI outbreaks based on wetlanddistributions, prevalence of bird species, flyways of migratory birds, surface characteristics, and socioeconomic factors.
Model the spread of AI virus from large commercial poultry farms to small and backyard farms under typical environmental and socioeconomic conditions.
Model weekly influenza-like illness cases based on observed and forecast meteorological parameters for regions in the US and other tropical countries.
What environmental and socio-economical factors may contribute to highly pathogenic AI outbreaks?
Poultry Outbreaks, Human Cases, Wet Markets, And Distribution Centers
Poultry Outbreaks, Human Cases, Wet Markets, And Distribution Centers
January – February 2006Based on Media & Publicly Available Information
January – February 2006Based on Media & Publicly Available Information
Histograms of Distance from Neighborhoods With/without Outbreaks to Other Locations
Histograms of Distance from Neighborhoods With/without Outbreaks to Other Locations
Log
(N+1
)Lo
g (N
+1)
meters
What areas around wetlands may have higher risks for AI outbreaks?
NAMRU-2 Bird Surveillance Sites on Java
NAMRU-2 Bird Surveillance StudyNAMRU-2 Bird Surveillance StudyThe role of migratory birds in the spread of H5N1 remains under
considerable debates.
In Indonesia, migratory pathways are only known for shorebirds (East Asian-Australasian flyway) and migratory ducks and geese (East Asian & Central Asian flyways).
4067 birds comprising of 98 species and 23 genera were collected in 2006-2007.
Most common birds: striated heron, common sandpiper, and domestic chicken.
6%3% 14%
(continued)(continued)
RNA was extracted from swabs; RT-PCR was conducted for H5N1 genes; antibodies was detected using hemagglutination inhibition and other tests.
Species with the highest seropostive rates in each category are Muschovy duck (captive), striated heron (non-migratory) and Pacific golden plover (migratory).
16% of the captive birds (duck, swan, pigeon, etc.) showed H5N1antibody.
Infected captive birds can be asymptomatic.
In Indonesia, the role of migratory birds in H5N1 transmission is limited.
ASTER False-Color, Google Earth And Land Use Maps Around Indramayu
ASTER False-Color, Google Earth And Land Use Maps Around Indramayu
Supervised ClassificationSupervised Classification
EU’s & UK’s Practice:
3 km protection zone10 km surveillance zonelarger restricted zone
Buffer zones can be established to limit the spread of H5N1 around wetlands and the nearby farmlands Buffer zones can be established to limit the spread of H5N1 around wetlands and the nearby farmlands
How do AI viruses spread on and off farms, within and across poultry sectors, and into the environment?
Densely Populated Sector I Poultry Production Area
Google Earth image
Detection of H5N1 Infection on a Poultry FarmDetection of H5N1 Infection on a Poultry Farm
Highly pathogenic AI infection on a poultry farm cannot be detected immediately.
Some infected poultry may not look very sick.
In a poultry house with 20,000 chickens, an infection of <1% may not be detected in a walkthrough.
Using a SEIR model, it can be shown that it may take 4-5 days to detect an outbreak.
Before an infection is detected, viruses continue to spread onfarm and off farm, through service personnel, equipment, materials, and the poultry that have been shipped out.
How does seasonality vary geographically? How is influenza transmission influenced by the environment? How can this be used for forecasting and pandemic early warning?
Latitudinal variability in influenza transmission pattern
Experimental findings on the effect of meteorological factors in influenza transmission, virus survivorship and host susceptibility
Viboud et al. (2006). PLoS Med 3(4):e89
Empirical Evidences of Environmental Influences On Influenza Transmissions
Empirical Evidences of Environmental Influences On Influenza Transmissions
Hong KongHong Kong
Land surface temperature
Air temperature
Rainfall
Relative humidity
Dew point
Evaporation
Pressure
Solar irradiance
Sunshine hours
Windspeed
Time series for environmental parameters and weekly seasonal influenza cases
Hong KongHong Kong
Training Prediction
Maricopa County, ArizonaMaricopa County, Arizona
Land surface temperature
Air temperature
Rainfall
Relative humidity
Dew point
Pressure
Solar irradiance
Windspeed
Time series for environmental parameters and weekly seasonal influenza cases
Maricopa County, Arizona
Maricopa County, Arizona
Training Prediction
Time series for environmental parameters and weekly seasonal influenza cases
New York CityNew York City
Training Prediction
Epidemic-prone acute respiratory diseases have no borders, and can be spread rapidly around the world. Internationally coordinated surveillance & control efforts are essential. Better understanding of the influenza seasonality and the environmental effects on transmission will help the global surveillance and control efforts.
Epidemic-prone acute respiratory diseases have no borders, and can be spread rapidly around the world. Internationally coordinated surveillance & control efforts are essential. Better understanding of the influenza seasonality and the environmental effects on transmission will help the global surveillance and control efforts.
