roll out of 3g,4g & lte progress & challenges by dr t.h. chowdary director: center for...

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Roll Out of 3G,4G & LTE Progress & Challenges By DR T.H. CHOWDARY Director: Center for Telecom Management and Studies Fellow: Tata Consultancy Services Chairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India ) Former: Chairman & Managing Director Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited & Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh T: +91(40) 6667-1191(O) 2784-3121® F: +91 (40) 6667-1111 [email protected] Lecture @ BITS-Hyd : 7 th Dec 2012

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Roll Out of 3G,4G & LTEProgress & Challenges

By

DR T.H. CHOWDARYDirector: Center for Telecom Management and Studies

Fellow: Tata Consultancy ServicesChairman: Pragna Bharati (intellect India )Former: Chairman & Managing Director

Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited &Information Technology Advisor, Government of Andhra Pradesh

T: +91(40) 6667-1191(O) 2784-3121®F: +91 (40) 6667-1111

[email protected] @ BITS-Hyd : 7th Dec 2012

Man in Search of Speed

• Running ( Marathon) • Horse • Bicycle• Steam/ diesel /electric locomotives on rails• Automobiles on roads• Aeropelanes in the sky• Rockets into space

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Information Transport• Post Office• Telegraph/Telex• Telephone• Radio• TV• Internet• Mobile phones • Communications Satellites• Optical Fiber• Digitization, Packet switching , Routers, Compression,

Encryption

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Mobile Penetration in the Last Decade

S681 _Dec'12 4Source: Voice & Data, Sept 2011 and IT U World Telecoms/ KT Indicators Database * Estimates

Per 100 Inhabitants

THC_CTMS

Information traffic grows exponentially

• Globally the number of mobile internet users will surpass desktop users by 2015

• Smart phones, social networking, video on demand, video streaming,

e-education, e-books, mobile video conferencing

• BOYD (bring your own device) • Push up information storage & transport

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Generations of mobile systems

• 1G, 2G,3G, 4G and LTE (long term evolution)• Digitisation• Computer Switching ( Routers), MPLS ( multi

protocol label switching )• Modems (analogue – 4kbps, 16 kbps)• BB (Broadband), 64 k, 256k, 2MBPS, 8 MBPS,

100MBPS ,(N GBPS)

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Evolution for Data AccessYear 1997 2000 2003 2003+ 2006 2008 2012

System GSM GPRS EDGE 3G 3.5G 4G 4G

Data Rate

9.6 115 384 2 MBPS 4MBPS 8MBPS 100 MBPS

GSM Evolution 3G LTE

EDGE - Enhanced Data Rates for Global EvolutionLTE – Long Term evolution; GPRS: General Packet Radio ServiceGSM: Global Service Mobile

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Spectrum Requirements

2G 3G BWA

100MHZ 60MHZ 500MHZ

900 & 1800MHZ bands

2,100 MHZ band 2,300MHZ band

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Radio Spectrum- Bands & Frequency

Band Frequency in GHZ

Band Frequency in GHZ

L 1-2 U 40-60

S 2-4 V 50-75

C 4-8 E 60-90

X 8-12 W 75-110

Ku 12-18 E 90-140

Ka 26.5-40 D 110-170

Q 30-50

Infra Red – Light - Ultra Violet

Below 1 GHZ : LW, MW, SW, VHF, UHF, SHF

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Limited Spectrum for Mobile Broadband

Best mobile broadband (300 MHz-3.5 GHz)

Bounces from the sky Bounces inside rooms

Penetrates buildings and terrain Reflects from buildings

Follows Earth’s curvature Travels in a straight line

Fades in the rain

1 MHz 10 MHz 100 MHz 1 GHz 10GHz75 meters 7.5 meters 0.75 meters 7.5 cm 75mm

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LTE deployment• Mid 2009 Telia Sonera in Norway and Sweden• Sept 2010 Metro PCS –USA• Dec 2010 Verizon –USA• Nov 2010 Hong Kong: CSL • Dec 2010 DoCoMo –Japan• APril2011-SMART Philippine• July 2011- SK Telecom -Korea, Telestra- Australia, SingTel-Singapore• 3 Jan 12-South Korea -KT• Jan 2012- 40 Networks in operation in 29 countries• 229 commitments for deployment in 79 countries• India augure in1 4 cities in MP and Chattisgarh in Q1-12 • Currently there are 197 LTE enabled devices from 48 manufacturers• MTNL in Delhi & Mumbai in Q1-2011 (MTNL & BSNL allotted 3G

spectrum even before auction but they required to pay what the auction determined)

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Reliance-Mukesh Ambani’s Infotel)

• Invests in 3/5 yrs $8 bln• Constructs 100,000 RKM of O/F cable• Phase-I Towers 7000• Traffic aggregators 3500 ach in Delhi &

Mumbai based on FTT X technology• Pan India BWA already invested $2.8 bln• Subscription @ Rs. 800/1000 pm

THC_CTMS S681 _Dec'12 12

Google Fiber Project (to boost Internet speed)

July 2012, Kensas City)• High Speed & internet @ $ 120 pm• 1 GPBS Internet B/W (100 times faster than

current speed)• 2 TB of DVR storage 1 TB of Google Drive• Free Google News 7 Tablet• Reliance Info promises ( 10 to 30) MBPS

THC_CTMS S681 _Dec'12 13

Tower Requirements• India ‘s population density – 150 (Andaman); Delhi -1800

per sq. mile • 1000 subscribers per tower • One tower for 6 sq.miles to 18 towers per sq.mile• MBPS per tower for 2G-40; for 4G-800• India has 4,50,000 towers• Tenancy ratio required :2 to 3 per tower • To reduce radiation to less than 1 wt per sq. mtr we need

at least 25,000 more towers at a cost of Rs. 7,500 cr.• Local bodies and property owners are becoming hungry

wolves and clearances are costing huge monies

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Back -haul

• 1.5 to 2 GBPS from each tower• Terrestrial microwave is less expensive than

Optical Fiber systems (digging and resurfacing costs are a source of unearned income for local bodies and highways)

• Both TDM and IP traffic require back-haul • Encapsulation : Ethernet is cheaper than MPLS

which is superior

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Broadband wireless access (BWA) (1)

• The spectrum auction in June 2010 netted $ 8.4 bln (Rs. 40,000 Cr) (the 3G netted Rs. 68000 Cr)

• Target for broadband subscribers by 2014 – 100 mln • Only Reliance Infotel has nation wide licence (cost $ 2.74 bln )• Aircel has a spectrum in 8 circles, Airtel and Qualcomm in 4

circles each; BSNL all over India • LTE ready equipment vendors - Nokia Siemens networks,

Huawei, Alcatel Lucent & ZTE• WiMax is also LTE technology and some a re deploying it. • FD, LTE & TDLTE

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Broadband wireless access (BWA) (2)

• 132 operators in 56 countries are now investing in LTE • 45 networks are in operation now• Reliance uses LTE-TTD (time division duplex)• Qualcom (which ha s licence in 4 circles) supplies

equipment to every operator promotes TD-LTE in competition with WiMax• Qualcom has multi mode chip sets which enable equal

footing for services in 2G, 3G and BWA • Aircel demonstrated high definition video streaming and

three way video conferencing using inter-operable TD-LTE dongles

• Speed 110 mbps and low latency of 10-20 milli sec .

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Monies raised through spectrum auction

• 3G – Rs. 68,000 Cr• Broadband – Rs. 40,000 Cr • Reliance Infotel (Mukhesh group) – 4G Spectrum in June 2010 @ Rs. 4,800 Cr Investment to be made Rs. 27,500 Cr • Content creation : 15% to creator; 15% to aggregator; 70% to

Telcos but Reliance Infotel will pass on 50% to Telcos and aggregator

• Content- video on demand, live video, mobile video conferencing, e-education(bought online tutoring company extra marks education pvt.) , network 18 TV content, triple play ( voice, entertainment and education)

• Technology used: (TDD)- time division duplex- LTE will provide voice service through applications like Skype and

Viber

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Auctioning Spectrum is disastrous • Gamblers instinct• First mobile service licences were auctioned• Fantastic “upfront paid “ bids led to near death of Telcos • Telcso migrated to revenues share in 1999• Right thing to do - invite bids for revenue share and not for

spectrum price • DOT/government has stake in Telcos wellbeing • DOT/gov take equity in Telcos to control• Money made is squandered on “Feed and breed” welfare programs • About 30% of what users pay and tax on profits go to government • Telecom R&D, and indigenous manufacturing languishing • Defense, security , infrastructure are starved

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Should Spectrum be Priced?• Like air it is an inexhaustible resource , which can be

used again and again all the while Infrared, ultra violet, x-ray…..• Solar power • Sun’s light rays spectrum is not sold• The product that is electricity is sold • Devices convert sunlight to electricity are sold and

taxed . So only products and services derived from spectrum should be sold .

• Take Nitrogen from air and produce fertilizer what do you sell /tax?

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Industry Woes (1)

• Telco Revenues @ Rs. 1.5/2 Tln.• Telco Investments of = Rs. 3 Tln• Telcos debt Rs.3 Tln• Debt of Telcos to Banks Rs. 1,00,000cr (R-Com = Rs. 35,000 cr)• Profits are declining• ARPUs lowest in the world• Hyper competition

– Services customers– Sickness for companies

• DOT/TRAI-function?• Raising Revenues for government or • Reaching service upto aam admi• Return on capital employed <6.5%

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Industry Woes (2)

• No company has declared a dividend in the last 18 years

• Share prices’ performance below BSE index • Banks not enthused to finance 2G spectrum

purchases.• A Kotak Investment Study finds need for

“Viability Gap Funding” by government ?

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Perverse views of DOT/TRAI• Asking internet service providers (ISPs) for revenue share.• Asking tower companies to pay revenue share and take a licence • Asking cell companies to pay spectrum charge determined by 2012

2G auctions for the remaining period of the licence of P-telcos 2014/15 . (Electricity transmission towers and distribution poles do not require a licence nor do they pay anything to any body.)

• Withholding VOIP for the last 10 years an d now saying OK• Not allowing 3 G roaming between different company networks

(no single company got 3Glicence for the entire country – Airtel- 13; Idea-11; Vodafone-9; BSNL-everywhere )

• Suggesting reforming of 2 G networks from 800 MHZ to 800/900 MHZ bands

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Thank You:Dhanyawad

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