ron harbour president, harbour consulting automotive news world congress january 18, 2006 the...
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© 2005 Harbour Consulting. All Rights Reserved Recent ClientsTRANSCRIPT
Ron HarbourPresident, Harbour Consulting
Automotive News World Congress January 18, 2006
The Changing Face of the North American Auto Industry
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Areas of ExpertiseHarbour Performance
Manufacturing AssessmentsLean Manufacturing Implementation/TransformationStrategic PlanningProduct and Process DesignProduct Launch Support
Harbour BenchmarkingTotal Cost and Investment ModelingCooperative Benchmarking StudiesCost and Investment BenchmarkingProduct TeardownsState of the Industry
Harbour Report GlobalNorth America annually since 1993 (public)Europe annually since 1996 (private)Heavy-duty truck study (future) South America and Asia (future)
Harbour Performance
Harbour Benchmarking
Harbour Report Global
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Recent Clients
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North American Automotive Manufacturing
Vehicle Assembly 13 21 25 7 4 7 9 86
Stamping 7 9 18 3 3 4 6 50
Engine 6 7 10 4 2 2 1 32
Transmission 3 4 6 1 1 2 0 17
Total 185Harbour has visited most of these
plants over the last 5 years and tours 30 to 40 each year
Others Total
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North American Vehicle Sales(Millions)
1992 1995 2000 2005
14.8 16.5
19.8 19.6Millions ofVehicles
U.S.73.1%10.8 M
Japan23.8%Korea
0.9%Europe3.6%
U.S.71.6%11.8 M
Japan21.5%Korea
1%Europe3.3%
U.S.65.2%12.9 M
Japan25.3%
Korea2.7%
Europe6.9%
U.S.56.9%11.1 M
Japan32.2%
Korea4.3%
Europe6.5%
Domesticbrands stillhave 69%
of assembly
plants
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North American Vehicle Assembly Plant Openings and Closings (1990 -- 2005)
DaimlerChrysler 4 2 +2Ford 1 2 - 1General Motors 3 16 -13Toyota 2 - +2Honda 3 - +3Nissan 2 - +2
Total - 6
New Plants Closed Plants Net Change
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Chrysler Group North American Vehicle Assembly Capacity
0
1
2
3
1992 1995 2000 2005
Millions of Vehicles
Change from 1992 to 2005NA Capacity rose 14%(11 to 13 plants)
2.52.75
2.95 2.87
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0
5
1992 1995 2000 2005
Ford North American Vehicle Assembly Capacity*
Millionsof vehicles
4.34.83 4.8
4.0
* Includes AutoAlliance Inc.
Capacity rose through the1990’s, but fell 18% from 1995 to 2005(22 to 21 plants)
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012345678
1992 1995 2000 2005
Millions of vehicles
General Motors North American Vehicle Assembly Capacity
7.356.4 6.2
5.1
Change from 1992 to 2005NA capacity fell 31%(38 to 25 plants)
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Honda North American Vehicle Assembly Capacity
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1992 1995 2000 2005
Number of Vehicles
Change from 1992 to 2005NA Capacity rose 129%(4 to 7 plants)
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Nissan North America Vehicle Assembly Capacity
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1992 1995 2000 2005
Numberof vehicles
Change from 1992 to 2005NA Capacity rose 192%(3 to 4 plants)
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Toyota North American Vehicle Assembly Capacity*
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1992 1995 2000 2005
Number ofVehicles
* Includes Toyota production from NUMMI
Change from 1992 to 2005NA Capacity rose 216% (5 to 7 plants)
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North American Vehicle Assembly Capacity
02468
1012141618
1992 1995 2000 2004
Millions of vehicles
GM GM GM GM
16.317.3 16.9
15.9
Ford Ford Ford
DCX DCX DCXDCX
ToyotaToyota
ToyotaHonda
NissanHonda
Ford
HondaNissan
Nissan OthersOthersOthers
Others
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North American Stamping (Domestics)
0
5
10
15
20
1995 20040
5
10
1995 2004
GM
No. of StampingPlants
No. of StampingPlants
Ford
01234567
1995 2004
No. of StampingPlants
dcx92
LIN
ES 66LI
NES
33O
Lin
es
241
Line
s
162
Line
s
109
Line
s
More stamping facilities, but most are smaller plants with fewer, better and more productive presses
1418 9 9
7 7
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North American Stamping (New Domestics)
0
2
4
1995 20040
2
4
1995 2004
Number ofStamping plants
Toyota
14 line
s
22 lines
Number ofStamping plants
Nissan
11 lines
14 li
nes
0
2
4
1995 2004
Number ofStamping plants
Honda
6 lin
es
4 lin
es
Japanese assemblyplants always includea small on-siteStamping plant
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North American Engine Capacity(Domestics)
0
5
1995 20040
5
1995 2004
Millions of engines
GM
Millions of engines
Ford
0
1
2
3
1995 2004
DCXMillions ofengines
2.16 2.78
5.95
5.39
3.95
2.98
Domestic •7.5% less capacity
•9.8% less production
•15% fewer plants
How will shrinkingassembly capacity
impactpowertrain capacity?
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North American Engine Capacity(New Domestic)
0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,000
1995 2004
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1995 2004
Toyota
Number ofEngines
Number ofEngines
Nissan
0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000
1995 2004
HondaNumber ofEngines
New Domestics•125% more capacity
•113% More production
• Grew from 4 to 9 engine plants
Stronger yenhas driven theshift in powertraincapacity
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2005 North American Vehicle Capacity Utilization111%97% 97% 93% 87%
79%
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Flexibility Drives Capacity UtilizationNo. of No. of No. of 2005 capacity lines platforms body styles utilization
Honda East Liberty 1 2 3 81%
Honda Alliston #2 1 2 3 95%
Nissan Smyrna 2 35 124%
Toyota Cambridge 2 2 3 109%
Ford Chicago 1 1 3 98%
GM Oshawa 2 1 4 93%
DCX Brampton* 2 1 3 127%
* Operated on 3 shifts for most of 2005
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What Caused Today’s Overcapacity Predicament?
• Significant market share loss– Domestic manufacturers slid from 73.1% in 1992 to 56.9% in 2005
• Lack of factory flexibility• Restrictive labor agreements• Overly optimistic sales projections• Significant performance improvement
– Better throughput– Higher first-time through quality– Improved equipment uptime
• New shift patterns– 3 crews working 2 shifts– 3 shifts
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35.85
46.81
36.9836.76
34.33
46.52
32.0231.90
29.4330.79
27.9030.25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
0%23%
4%
2004vs.
1998
GM excludes medium duty. Honda, Nissan and Toyota data includes partial reporting of North American plants.
North American History of Total Hours per Unit – (Assembly, Stamping, Powertrain)
26%
0%
8%
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8581
126
109
123
104
129
95
119
106
140
118116113
149
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
J.D. Power Initial Quality SurveyProblems per 100 Vehicles
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Translating Perception to Reality
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Translating Perception to Reality