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Ronald J. Ferek, Ph.D.Marine Meteorology Program

March 5, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Research Sponsored by the Office of Naval Research

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Marine Meteorology Overview

Marine Meteorology--Navy-Unique• Forecast Location: Global to Local, rapid response anywhere• Navy Operates in the MABL• NWP and Ocean Prediction are 2 of the 4 Core Competencies of

NMOC (production centers at FNMOC and NAVO)• Vertical integration from S&T to Operations (R2O)

Current Research Emphases• Air-Sea interaction, coupled modeling• Next-generation global coupled NWP (ESPC talk in later session)• State-of-the-art DA and exploitation of quantitative remote sensing• Tropical cyclone genesis, structure, intensity and modeling

– WestPac emphasis to support JTWC mission• Core programs have decreased in favor of Research Initiatives• Focus effort on difficult problems, opportunities to advance the science,

logical progression, exploit discoveries for transition to operations (impact)• Examples: TCM-90, CBLAST, TCS-08, ITOP, TCI-14

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Why we do TC research

Tropical cyclone tracks: 1998-2007

DOD is vulnerable

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Why we do TC research

• Fleet priority since WWII

• Establishment of JTWC in 1959

• TC Research an ONR program thrust since 1980

• 1984 goal set by CINCPACFLT: reduce 72h track error to 150nm

Research focused on track in ‘80s and early ‘90s Goal achieved in 2002

• “Tropical cyclones…continue to be the most disruptive and devastating peacetime threat affecting operations within the USPACOM AOR”—Capt. John O’Hara, Fleet Oceanographer

• New USPACOM TC Forecasting Goals issued in 2009Reduce position errors to 75nm at 72 hr, 150nm at 120hr and 200nm at 168hrPredict the radius of 35 and 50kt winds within 20% through 168hrDevelop products that display uncertainty in a dynamic and probabilistic senseForecast the intensity (max winds) to within 20% at 168hr

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Legacy (and Impact) of ONR Tropical Cyclone Field Experiments

TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION (TCM-90) First international tropical cyclone field experiment with special observations from NASA DC-8, Japanese weather ships (3), Russian oceanographic ships (4), and Taiwan collaborators

Accomplishments: - Documented three-dimensional structure of steering flow in monsoon environment- Documented TC beta-effect propagation as function of outer vortex wind structure- Documented 3-D structure of Supertyphoon Flo with minimum pressure of 891 mb- Documented ocean response to typhoons

TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION (TCM-92, TCM-93)- Follow-on experiments with two USAF Reserve C-130s- Documented role of monsoon depressions in typhoon formation

- Documented role of mesoscale convective systems in typhoon formation

Impact: Led to significant advances in track forecasting at JTWC and achieved the 1984 goal set by CINCPACFLT in 2002

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TCM Impact: Reduction of JTWC Track Errors

(Western North Pacific - 24-72 Hours)

Annual errors are atall time low valuesBut…5 yr averages are not decreasing

TCM-90Appl. res.

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Motivation: Few observations and little understanding of air-sea transfer processes in very low (<7 m/s) and very high (>30 m/s) wind regimes

Major Performers:WHOI, SIO, UWash, OSU, UH, UMiami, URI,

UWisc, MIT, NRL, NASA, NOAA

OBJECTIVE: Understand the physical processes of air-sea interaction at low and very high wind conditions

Hurricane component of CBLASTInitial 5-year program to measure,

analyze and understand the critical air-sea coupling at hurricane winds

2-yr follow-on effort to exploit findings and develop advanced parameterizations

Legacy (and Impact) of ONR TC Field ExperimentsONR CBLAST DRI, 2001-2007

Accomplishments: Development of new wave-modulated drag parameterizations resulted in first ever realistic model simulations of TC intensity

Impact: Began applied research to develop an operational capability (COAMPS-TC) for predicting TC intensity. Led to improvements ina number of other mesoscale TC models.(Now a major activity in the HFIP program)

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TCS-08 DRI: The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific Typhoons

GOAL: to reduce errors in TC structure and intensity forecasts by 50% within a decade

Problem: Cannot predict the evolution of disturbances in the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific (genesis, structure & intensity changes, outer winds, etc.)

Approach: Conducted field experiments in Aug-Sept 08 to examine the evolution of Westpac TCs from genesis to fully mature storms. An integrated effort of research flights, remotely sensed atmosphere and ocean observations, and testing in a coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere modeling system (COAMPS-TC).

Impact: Increased predictability of environmental factors that influence tropical cyclone formation, the evolution of the outer-wind structure, and of factors that determine ET or landfall.

TY Fred

o GuamPhilippines

Pre-TY Harry

Pre-TY Gladys

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Operations center, NPS, Monterey, CA

Driftsonde center,

Driftsonde Balloon release,Hawaii

Aircraft locations, and

aircraft operations centers

Guam

Japan

Taiwan

Okinawa

Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiment (TCS-08) Partnership withTHORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)

• 9 participating nations– Canada, China, U.K., France, Germany, Japan,

South Korea, Taiwan, United States• Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours

– 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR• 76 missions

– 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR

• 7 airfields– Andersen AFB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena

AFB, Okinawa, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AFB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan

• 11 tropical circulation systems– 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others

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TCS-08: Examined the entire lifecycle of a tropical cyclone (formation, intensification, and structure change)

TY Sinlaku aircraft sampling (9-21 Sept 2008)

NRL P-3C-130DOTSTARDLR F-20

Guam

OkinawaTaiwan

Japan

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COAMPS Prediction of Typhoon JangmiInitial Time: 0000 UTC 26 September 2008

45 km grid is stationary, 15 and 5 km grids move with the TC

Initial Grid Set-up

COAMPS Forecast Track (red) and Official Warning Positions (black) plotted every 12 hours (dots)

24h959mb

48h/916mb

72h/913mb

24h/925mb

48h/916mb

72h/985mb

0h0h

COAMPS-TC forecast Jangmi intensification at 48h, but moved Jangmi slower and more northward than observed, keeping the system stronger than observed since the predicted track

did not take Jangmi over land

Animation of COAMPS predicted radar reflectivity every 30 minutes on 5 km moving grid (24-72 h)

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NWS Radar Composite

1148 UTC 27 August 2011

COAMPS-TC (36 h)

COAMPS-TC HighlightReal-Time Hurricane Irene Forecasts

• Impact: Realistic precipitation shield, structure and intensity forecasts• COAMPS-TC did very well for Intensity during 2011, especially for Irene

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TCS-08 Accomplishments

• First major WestPAC experiment since TCM93• First observations of a WestPAC TC life-cycle• First systematic targeting operation in the WestPAC• First four plane operation in a WestPAC TC• First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process• First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific• First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over the western North

Pacific flight operations in:• First buoy drop in front of a WestPAC TC• First msmts. to validate new and advanced satellite obs. of WP TCs• First detailed (i.e., in situ aircraft, dual-doppler radar, dropsonde, lidar)

observations of:– Large scale environmental influences– Tropical cyclone formation in the monsoon environment of the tropical WestPAC– Structure changes during the initial tropical cyclone intensification

• First measurements to define the response of the outer wind structure to changes in intensity and eyewall replacement cycles

• Successful relay of research dropsondes to the ground and onto GTS in near real time

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ResourcesITOP 2010 Observations

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Understanding and Predicting the Impact of Outflow on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

and Structure (“TCI-14”)

An FY14 ONR Departmental Research Initiative

Ronald J. Ferek and Daniel P. Eleuterio, 322MM

13 December 2012

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TC Structure and Recent Research Programs

Image courtesy of NASA

Primary circulation

Unexplored: Outflow structure, intensity, and variability, and relationships with hurricane intensity and structure

NSF RAINEXSecondary Circulation

ONR TCS08ONR TCS08 NSF TPARCNSF TPARC NOAA IFEXNOAA IFEX NASA GRIPNASA GRIPNSF PREDICTNSF PREDICT

ONR CBLASTONR CBLAST ONR TCS-08ONR TCS-08ONR ITOPONR ITOP

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Outflow & IntensificationTyphoon Roke

Pre-Rapid Intensification00 UTC 19 Sep 2011

Intensity = 65 kt

Winds: 100-250 mb, 251-350 mb, 351-500 mb

150-300 mb Divergence

Upper-LevelJet

Roke

RokeOutflow

• Outflow directed equatorward

•No interaction between outflow and approaching upper-level jet

• Weak upper-level divergence

• Weak typhoon

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150-300 mb Divergence

Outflow & IntensificationTyphoon Roke

Rapid Intensification00 UTC 20 Sep 2011 (+24h)

Intensity = 115 kt

•Outflow shifts poleward

•Outflow couples with midlatitude jet

•Upper-level divergence triples

•Roke underwent Rapid Intensification, increased intensity by 50 kts in 24 hours

Upper-LevelJet

RokeOutflow

Winds: 100-250 mb, 251-350 mb, 351-500 mb Roke

Models (including COAMPS-TC) failed to capture this RI

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Opportunity: NASA HS3 Field Program 2012-2014

Global Hawk Ops Center during HS3

Environmental Payload: cloud/aerosol lidar, dropsondes, wind lidar, remote sounders

Over-storm Payload: HAMSR (multi-level water vapor), HIWRAP (surface and multi-level wind velocity and rain rate), HIRAD (surface wind speed, rain rate), dropsondes

TWO Global Hawks will fly to sample the environment and inner-core

NASA Global Hawk at Wallops

Advantages: long duration and high-altitude obs.

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Cross Section6 sondes

HS3 Observations of Leslie’s Outflow at 150 mb

X

LeslieCenter

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HS3 Observations of Leslie’s Outflow

7 Sep 20121041-1111Z

Black, Red, Blue and Pink lines:Global Hawk observedwind speed and temperature profilesalong jet maximum from dropsondes

Red line: Satellite wind speed vertical average

Green line: COAMPS-TC modelwind speed profile

Solid black: TropopauseDashed: Cirrus top / jet maxDotted: Cirrus cloud baseYellow shading: Cloud Physics

Lidar (CPL) domain

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Impact of HS3 Dropsondes for NadineTrack Error (nm) Intensity: Max. Wind Error (kts)

Intensity: Min. SLP Error (hPa)

Bias (dash)

HS3 drops

No drops HS3 drops

No drops

HS3 drops

No drops

Bias (dash)

• Dropsonde impact experiments performed for 19-28 Sep. (3 flights)

- Red, with HS3 drops- Blue, No drops with synthetics

• COAMPS-TC Intensity and Track skill are improved greatly through assimilation of HS3 Drops.

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• At ONR we try to focus initiatives on problems that advance the science and have impact (collaborate/leverage other agencies)

TC motion (academia, NASA, international collaborators, USAF) Physics of the air-sea interface (academia, NOAA, NASA, USAF) Storm-scale structure (academia, NSF, NOAA, USAF, international collaborators) Interaction with the ocean (academia, NSF, international collaborators, USAF)

• Strategy: increase understanding of the dynamic processes and represent them in models, exploit the results to improve prediction systems Vertically integrated process from basic research to applied research to advanced

development and transition to operations

• Fruitful collaboration with NOAA’s HFIP utilizing NOPP process for joint funding of a number of academic/Gov. lab

partnership projects

• Next initiative: Leverage the unprecedented opportunity to deploy two NASA Global Hawks to observe hurricane intensity, interactions between storms, outflow and larger-scale environment (academia, NASA, NOAA, USAF, NSF international collaborators)

Summary

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Questions?