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Climate Change:An IntroductionRonald MitchellPolitical Science and Environmental Studies1The winter Olympics in the era of climate change?2

You go first!What do you know about climate change?

3You go first!What do you know about climate change?

What do you want to know about climate change?4Climate change:An introductionClimate change is challengingWhat are we doing and what gases do they emit?How do those gases raise global temperatures?Why should we trust the science?What are the impacts of climate change?Whos responsible?What do we need to do?What are we doing?What are some policy options?

Climate change is challengingResponsible behaviors: numerous and deeply embedded in all aspects of lifeMagnitude: impacts of inaction and costs of action are large Trends and timelines: population and affluence (IPAT) growing by 1.8% and 1.3% per year, technology declining by 0.7% per yearAlternatives: not available or economically unattractiveEvidence that its hard: 30 years of knowledge, 20 years of policy, yet little progressA Chart with Too Much Detail!

Source: World Resources Institute: http://www.wri.org/image/view/9529/_originalBasics of that chart:3 main gases & sources75%: Carbon Dioxide (CO2)Fossil fuels for manufacturing,transport, heat/cool, electricityDeforestation15%: Methane (CH4)Livestock and manureRice cultivation8%: Nitrous Oxide (N2O)Agricultural fertilizer

How those gasescause global warmingMany causes of greenhouse effectVery few non-human factors that can explain increases in the greenhouse effectCO2 and CH4:VERY small fraction of atmosphereN2: 78%; O2: 21%; Ar: 1%; CO2: 0.04%; CH4: 0.0002%BUT atmosphere is in equilibriumAllow short wavelength light through but block long wavelength light and re-reflect it

How do we know humans are the cause?-- Correlation of changes with human activities-- Computer models do not match observations of temperature unless human forcings are included

Discussion: three types of beliefs -Faith, opinion, and knowledgeWhere does each type of belief come from?How hard is each to change?What sorts of evidence is each based on?Who do you listen to with respect to each?11Generating understanding:From Ignorance To KnowledgeWhy should we trust the science?Credible sources: expertise and trustworthinessIndividuals using scientific methodSociology of science and peer review; institutionally conservative IPCCConfirmation of predictions from theoryMultiple independent sources of same infoMultiple indicators of same trendBest explanation, not just a possible explanationAccounting for all data, not just selected dataIPCC Summarys of research:Evidence of CC is Getting Stronger1st report (1990): unequivocal detection of enhanced greenhouse gas effect not likely for decade or more2nd report (1995): balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate3rd report (2001): new, stronger evidence that most warming observed of last 50 years is due to humans4th report (2007): most of increase in global average temps since 1950 is likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse emissions5th report (2014): It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century Slide courtesy of Greg Bothun, U of OregonImpacts of global warmingTemperature: most areas warmer; some colder; many differentPrecipitation: some areas more; some less; some differentSea level rise and wave heightsMore extreme weather: drought, floods, hurricanesEconomic lossesSpecies lossDisease vectorsSome abrupt changes or surprisesFAQs:Climate vs. weather?How can we predict climate?Global warming but regional cooling?Impacts: Glacial Retreat

Source: Argentina: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/05/sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm Gesellschaft fr kologische Forschung 2002. Das gletscherarchiv. http://www.gletscherarchiv.de/.

ArgentinaAustria19002000Free water storageCostly water storageImpacts: Thawing Rivers

Picture: Hood River, Oregon, W. D. Rogers, 1/17/1907; Oregon Historical Society Photo OrHi 35431 (http://librarycatalog.ohs.org/) Columbia generally freezes up once in the winter from a trial in 1882 at http://books.google.com/books?id=wZA8AAAAIAAJ (p. 1393)*Data on freezes compiled from: http://www.pacificcohistory.org/columbia.htm; http://historyink.com/results.cfm?keyword=Weather&searchfield=topics; and http://www.nwmapsco.com/ZybachB/Thesis/05-081_Chapter_3b.pdf (p. 86)The Columbia River froze over 23 times between 1830 & 1930 but has not frozen over since.How fast is it happening?Arctic ice changes in last 30 years17

18Obama climate planObama climate regulations decrease CO2 from power sector by 30% from 2005 levels by 2030 (but only 3.5% from 1990 levels)

Generating concern:From Knowledge To NegotiationGetting to the tableWhen do politicians listen to science and scientists? Salient relevant to policy-makers current decisionsCredible generated by people with expertise and trustworthinessLegitimate developed through process that reflects values, perspectives, and concerns of those affected20Generating agreement:From Negotiation To AgreementGetting to YesWhy are states Pushers, Draggers, Bystanders, Intermediates with respect to climate change?Ecological vulnerability: Costs countries face if problem NOT addressedAbatement costs: Costs country will incur if take action to address the problemNegotiating position as DV; vulnerability and abatement costs as IV21Determinants of country negotiating positionsAbatement CostsLOWHIGHEcological VulnerabilityLOWBystander(indifferent)Dragger(oppose action)HIGHPusher(call for action)Intermediate(unsure)Actual positionsEuropeans: act now, developing countries not required, flexibilityUS: supportive only if developing countries included AOSIS: developing states pushing for action because their interests directly and clearly affectedOPEC: oppose action on fossil fuelsDeveloping countries: avert problem but not the cause and lack capacities to respondSeparate who plays from who pays (Schneider)Debates involving lack of concern, effectiveness, and equity, inter aliaGoal of negotiationsFind the ZOPA (zone of possible agreement) -- intersection of different countries positionsOvercome collective action problems (incentives to cheat in Tragedy of the Commons problems)Write agreement to reduce costs or increase benefits to make pushers out of draggers, bystanders, intermediatesNegotiators three-fold choice (Ikle 1964): Accept terms currently on the tableKeep negotiatingExit the negotiations24Generating action:From Agreement To ActionAlternative mechanismsSticks punishment Carrots rewards Locks prevention Fields of dreams new opportunities Labels information Sermons norm developmentHow do we change behavior25Where we need to be:450ppm=2 t/personCO2:Pre-industrial: ~280ppmCurrent: ~380ppmTrajectory to 550ppm by 2100But major impacts at 450ppm ~4oFAnd stopping at 450ppm is likely ... unachievable with current & foreseeable technologies (Stern report)Sources: T. Wang. 2007. Chinas Cumulative Carbon Emission & Pathways over the 21st Century. Accessed: 19 March 2009. At: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/sussexenergygroup/documents/tao_wang_china_s_carbon_emission_pathways_20070902.ppt and US EPA, Recent Atmospheric Changes. Accessed 19 March 2009. At: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.htmlWhos responsible?Depends on how you count

http://www.wri.org/image/view/9255/_original20%2%15%5%5%20%5%% of total global emissionsWhere we need to be:450ppm=2 t/person

http://www.wri.org/image/view/9255/_originalSocio-economic causes of climate changeIPATImpact = Population * Affluence * TechnologyImpact: environmental harmPopulation: # of peopleAffluence: $ per person (income)Technology: impact per $ (carbon intensity)+1.3%/yr since 1991Doubles in 55 years (2070)-0.6%/yr since 1991Halves in 120 years (2135)Sources: Calculated based on Global: World Development Indicators, 2015+2.0%/yr since 1991Doubles in 35 years (2050)Trends in Deep Social Causes& their Implications

+1.3%/yr since 1991Doubles in 55 years (2070)Technological solutions alone may be inadequate3% per year net growth due to population and affluence requires 3% per year net decline from technology (CO2/$) just to stabilize emissionsMeeting 80% reduction by 2100 requires 2% per year reduction in emissionsTechnology must generate ongoing 5% per year emission reductions to achieve required reductions but currently less than 1% per year31What are the policy options?MitigationAdaptationGeo-engineeringGrieving and lossWhat is being done?MitigationUN FCCC of 1992 and Kyoto Protocol of 1997Governments: India, China, US, Europe, Japan; Costa Rica: 3.5% carbon tax since 1997States: Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative; Western Climate InitiativeCities: ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability: >1000 cities, townsNGOs/Corporations: WWF, Greenpeace, Nike, Levis, etc.Multinational corporationsReligions: Faith Action on Climate Change, Interfaith Power & Light, Evangelical Environmental Network, Individuals: Voluntary Simplicity, direct actionWhat is being done?Adaptation34

Relocate and displaceProtect infrastructureChange behaviors What may be done?Geo-engineering35

What has been lost?Grieving and loss36

Ivory-billed Woodpecker:Killed by Hurricane Katrina?

Mt.Hood:Like this in Winter?

The Snows of Kilimanjaro1976http://earthshots.usgs.gov/earthshots/Mount-Kilimanjarohttp://mthoodrentals.blogspot.com/2011/05/schools-almost-out-have-you-planned.htmlhttp://www.gambassa.com/public/project/profile/0/0/2771/AveryHorne%27sIvoryBilledWoodpeckerreport.jpgWhat has been lost?Grieving and loss37

Ivory-billed Woodpecker:Killed by Hurricane Katrina?

Mt.Hood:Like this in Winter?

The Snows of Kilimanjaro2010http://earthshots.usgs.gov/earthshots/Mount-Kilimanjarohttp://mthoodrentals.blogspot.com/2011/05/schools-almost-out-have-you-planned.htmlhttp://www.gambassa.com/public/project/profile/0/0/2771/AveryHorne%27sIvoryBilledWoodpeckerreport.jpgBased on material from the course:What kind of problem is climate change? What do you think are the conditions that would lead to progress in the negotiations?What human efforts to address the problem are likely to succeed or fail?What do you see as your role in this?

This is a hard and scary problemSo, some words to live byEveryone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.~Leo TolstoyNobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could only do a little.~Edmund BurkeThe true meaning of life is to plant trees, under whose shade you do not expect to sit.~Nelson HendersonUnless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not. ~Dr.Seuss