Rooppur Nuclear Power plant & Iran Nuclear Issue

Conflict Regarding

Rooppur Nuclear Power plant

Rooppur Nuclear Power plant• Proposal was made in 1961 & approved in 1963• Total area needed- 253.90 acres • Will be made and funded by Russia• Estimated cost 12.6 Billion $• Two VVER-1200 reactor power Plant• Output 2.4GWe• Completed within 2025

Why Rooppur Power Plant is needed

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Public 255 581 838 1040 1270 450 1500 6204

Private 270 105 1072 1311 1123 1900 1300 7081

Quick Rental 250 1185 1435

Total 775 2141 1910 2351 2393 2350 2800 14720

In recent years number of plants commissioned in Bangladesh

Why Rooppur Power Plant is needed (Cont.)

Shortage of Electricity in Previous Years

Fiscal Year Peak Demand(MW)

Maximum Generation(MW)

Shortage(MW)

2012 6454.00 4698.5 1755.51

2013 6765.00 5174.00 1591.00

2014 7518.00 6350.00 1168.00

2015 8349.00 6675.00 1674.00

Why Rooppur Power Plant is needed (Cont.)

Advantages of Nuclear Based Energy Production

• Stable and Powerful Source• Continuously supply energy for long term• natural uranium can provide about 10000 times more energy

than crude oil• Make a few amount of wastes compare to others• Transportation cost of raw material is also low for nuclear plant

Historical evidence of nuclear power plant accidents

Year Incident INES level

Country IAEA description

1986 Chernobyl 7 Ukraine (USSR) Widespread health and environmental effects. External release of a significant fraction of reactor core inventory

2011 Fukushima 5 Japan Reactor shutdown after the 2011 Sendai earthquake and tsunami; failure of emergency cooling caused an explosion

1957 Kyshtym 6 Russia Significant release of radioactive materialto the environment from explosion of a high activity waste tank.

1999 Tokaimura 4 Japan Fatal overexposures of workers following a criticality event at a nuclear facility

Accident at Chernobyl Nuclear Plant

• INES level 7 (worst nuclear accident ever)• Happened due to technical problem• releasing radiation into the atmosphere and cutting off the flow of

coolant into the reactor• Thirty-one deaths are directly attributed to the accident, all among

the reactor staff and emergency workers• 50 emergency workers who died soon after the accident from acute

radiation syndrome• nine children who have died of thyroid cancer and 116,000 needed

to be evacuated.

Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Plant

• Following a major earthquake, a 15-metre tsunami disabled the power supply and cooling of three Fukushima Daiichi reactors

• INES Level 5• Four reactors were written off due to damage in the accident• No Death or sickness causes of radiation but 1000 died for the

evacuation process• Over 100000 peopled needed to be evacuated

Conflict regarding Financial Issue• 1 Rooppur Power Plant = 2 Coal Plant + 3 Padma Bridge• Maintenance and Operation cost will be 200 Million dollar per year for

the next 40 years.• 90% of the cost is loaned from Russian govt. and Uranium will be

brought from Russia also.• It is actually a “cost plus” contract• All the repair and maintenance cost have to be provided by Bangladesh

Government

Conflict regarding planning• Technology- “Pressurized water reactor” is outdated and unsafe

according to specialist• Established near “Farakka Barrage”- get less water in summer season

for cooling purpose• Cant tolerate a high level of earthquake• Lack of safe zone surrounding the area (50 Miles)• Difficulties should be faced to evacuate surrounding place in case of

any accident• Threat of Terrorist and hacking

Conflict in operation level

• Lack of expert and technical manpower

• Lack of an institutional and regulatory framework

• Unsettled price of fuel

• Poor Management of spent fuel

Conflict regarding environmental Impact of Nuclear Power Plant

• Impact on Land• Impact on Water• Impact on Human Health & Animal• Impact on forests• Environmental Effects• Waste Disposal• Radioactive waste

Recommendations

• Is not the high time to involve in nuclear power generation

• Find some other place to build the plant where density is low.

• If not possible, then take necessary steps to make it hazard free.

• Take initiative to rehabilitate people from the active radioactive zone

Take enough steps to evacuate people within very short time. Take

preparation for evacuating more than 300000 lakh people.

Recommendations

• For cooling plant have some alternative and sustainable plan.

• Keep close monitoring waste management.

• Still fuel price has not been fixed. So make it fix

• In case of accidents clarify role of Russian government and vendor.

• Think for some other options for electricity generating

• Research on how to generate electricity in alternative way as well as

efficient way in the context of our country

Solution Onion Tool

Solution• First,• Solar based electric plant • may be the first choice.• 496,805 square kilometers

area of solar plant will be needed in 2030 to supply the electricity to the entire world.

• 0.009% of total world• Size of Spain

Solution• Second,Water based power plant. We already have at kaptai. This environment friendly. So we may find another location to build such power plant.

Third,Coal based electric power. As we have invented coal mine in recent years. Even storage is also convincing so going for that option may be second wise but not as wise as the earlier one.

Iran Nuclear Issue

Iran Nuclear Project At A Glance • Program was launched in 1950s with the help of the USA.• Program continued until the 1979 Iranian Revolution.• In 1981 Agreement Cut off with USA & agreement with Russia in 1990.• IAEA launched an investigation in 2003• In November 2011, the IAEA reported Iran Aiming Nuclear Bomb• Nuclear Power Plant would reach full capacity by the end of 2012.• As of 2015, Iran's nuclear program has cost $100 billion in lost oil

revenues ( $500 including other opportunity costs )

Iran Nuclear Conflict Resolution Deal• Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)• Renegotiation started 14 July 2015 • Parties: Iran and the P5+1/E3+3 • Issue: limited & tightly monitored uranium enrichment return for

reintegration into global economy.• Cooperation in resolving the International Atomic Energy Agency’s

(IAEA)

Consequences• Date: 16 January 2016• IAEA certified that Iran had fulfilled its key commitments under the

agreement.• exemptions allowing Iran to skirt some obligations.

Criticism • Criticism missed the bigger picture• Decisions granting exemptions(memorialization) a technically complex

agreement• Some Wish to political backlash• others not to politicize the IAEA’s work.

So Far, so Good? • Concerns over issues outside the nuclear accord, Iran's growing

regional posture and ballistic missile tests.• JCPOA’s two key components:

(I) restricting and rigorously monitoring Iran’s nuclear program (II)sanctions relief are working and delivering concrete results.• primary threat to its successful implementation

Nuclear Commitments • IAEA has verified on six separate occasions that Iran is fulfilling its

JCPOA obligations.• Numerous objections to the IAEA’s positive reports, but none amounts

to proof.• Europeans agreed, but Washington Argued it as a signal by Iran that it

could retaliate.

Sanctions Relief Commitments

• U.S. EU and UN nuclear related sanctions on Iran were relaxed• Oil production and exports returned to pre-sanction levels of 3.85

million barrels per day.• Iran regained access to $55 billion of previously frozen assets.• Still, sanctions relief has yet to reach Fully. • The Europeans blame both sides “US Treasury officials are often as

uncompromising as Iranians are unrealistic.

Options of US New President• Repudiate the deal • Rigorously police the deal • Renegotiate the deal • Resuscitate the nuclear program

Sustaining and Improving the JCPOA

• Rigorously monitoring its implementation• Iran is able to reap the economic dividends• Effort is consensual and mutually beneficial• No economic pressure which is unlikely to reach the intensity.• Tehran Washington dialogue regarding security concerns and core

interests, both the nuclear and regional files.

Conflict Pillar Analysis

Interpretation of conflict pillar• Tighten the sanctions by adopting a new resolution (New Resolution). • Take military action against Iran (Military Action). • Close Iran’s nuclear dossier and return it to IAEA (Close Dossier)• Reach an agreement with Iran and recommend UNSC to close Iran’s dossier

(Agreement).• Support the complete suspension of Iran’s uranium enrichment program

(Support Resolution).• Cooperate with IAEA and answer clearly all the IAEA’s questions (Cooperate). • Suspend all uranium enrichment activities temporarily and talk to West

(Suspension). • Persist to operate enrichment program, leave the NPT and escalate the conflict

to a war (Escalate).

ANY QUERY?