round table round table current state of seasonal adjustment in countries/ unece workshop on...

Round TableRound TableCurrent State of Seasonal Adjustment in Countries/

UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS) UNECE Workshop on Short-Term Statistics (STS) and Seasonal Adjustmentand Seasonal Adjustment14 – 17 March 2011, Astana, Kazakhstan

UNECE Statistical Division 2March 2011

Armenia

Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?

• Seasonal adjustments are not implemented If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• - Are there problems or challenges?

• Lack of methodology and experience in seasonal adjustment Future plans of your office?

• To study methodology and get training, improve short-term statistics and introduce seasonal adjustment

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• To get information about international experience in short-term

statistics, methodology of the seasonal adjustment to allow carrying out seasonal adjustment in our country


Azerbaijan


• SA work began in 2003, X12-ARIMA and Econometric Views are used If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• Seasonally adjusts about 15 indicators, not published Are there problems or challenges?

• No methodological explanations, not staff available for seasonal adjustment

Future plans of your office?• Implementation and publication of seasonally adjusted data 2011 via

Demetra Your expectations towards the Workshop?

• To get theoretical knowledge and practical skills sufficient for improvement works in this field in accordance to international standards


Belarus

Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment? • For the first time, GDP was seasonally adjusted for 1992-1999. X-12-

ARIMA is used for seasonal adjustment. If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• STS indicators are currently not seasonally adjusted because of lack of base indices at constant prices. Quarterly GDP is adjusted and published in English and Russian.

Are there problems or challenges?• There are problems with registration of new products.

Future plans of your office?• Quarterly GDP will further be seasonally adjusted.

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• As industrial production indices are not seasonally adjusted in Belarus,

it would be useful and helpful to get consultation and recommendations on making adjustments and use of relevant software products.

• To study experience of other countries on seasonal adjustment.


China

Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment? • SA work began in 2010, NBS-SA is used. NBS-SA is seasonal

adjustment software supported by National Bureau of Statistics of China, which based on X-13-ARIMA-SEATS.

If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?• 4 indicators are seasonally adjusted, including Quarterly GDP,

Industrial production index, Investment in fixed assets, Total retail sales of consumer goods. But they are not published.

Are there problems or challenges?• Not enough experience, and quality of original data need to be

improved since these data are not collected discretely. Future plans of your office?

• Publish the 4 indicators in the early future. Your expectations towards the Workshop?

• -


Georgia Please describe your experience with seasonal adjustment?

• Started in 2006 when the NSO with an international expert compiled quarterly time series of industrial production indices based on 2001, and seasonally adjusted them using TRAMO/SEATS Demetra

If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?• The same method used with National Accounts indicators like GDP,

household consumption expenditure etc• NA indicators not published, used only for analytical purposes

Are there problems or challenges?• Taking into account national holidays and other national features• Knowledge of other countries’ practices and international methodology

Future plans of your office?• To publish seasonally adjusted series, to improve the quality of

seasonal adjustment and cooperation with UNECE will be important Your expectations towards the Workshop?

• Increase the knowledge in the methodology of seasonal adjustment • Better understanding of other countries’ practices


Kazakhstan Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?

• The Center for Economic Analysis “RAKURS”, established in early 2009, undertook analysis of short-term economic statistics, and of seasonal adjustment of quarterly GDP. X-12-ARIMA software is used.

If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?• Quarterly GDP is seasonally adjusted and published.

Are there problems or challenges?• National calendar is not used, as software does not include it. There is

also an issue of direct vs. indirect aggregation of seasonally adjusted data (e.g. adjustment of various sectors or the whole GDP)

Future plans of your office?• Plans to adjust GDP by expenditure approach, but there are some

issues with quality. There are plans to improve the current SA method used.

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• To improve the SA method used by RAKURS and to clarify some

technical issues while undertaking analysis of short-term statistics. Also, to learn more international standards and procedures.


Kyrgyzstan


• “Demetra” has been used in experimental calculations If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• Seasonally adjusts industrial production index and quarterly GDP at the aggregated level, not published

Are there problems or challenges?• Availability of software and instructions mainly in English only creates

difficulties for wider use Future plans of your office?

• Future plans to carry out seasonal adjustment for quarterly GDP and industrial production index by economic activities

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• Be familiar with methods and methodology for implementing seasonal

adjustment to analyze obtained results.


Republic of Moldova


• Very little experience in seasonal adjustment If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• Industrial statistics are not seasonally adjusted yet Are there problems or challenges?

• Yes Future plans of your office?

• To seasonally adjust industrial production Your expectations towards the Workshop?

• Gain experience and learn how to do seasonal adjustment


Russian Federation Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment?

• Since 1998, the Federal State Statistics Service has carried out seasonal adjustment of key macroeconomic indicators, mainly X-12ARIMA (version 0.1.2) is used and for the indices of industrial production DEMETRA 2.2 (was decided in mid-2010)

If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?• GDP, industrial production indices, agricultural production, the volume of

construction, commissioning of residential buildings, passenger public transport, turnover in wholesale and retail trade, investment in fixed assets and real disposable income. Information can be found at: www.gks.ru

Are there problems or challenges?• The end-point problem, the optimal level of aggregation, elimination of seasonal and

calendar effects, the problem of the difference between the quarterly seasonally adjusted components and the annual value

Future plans of your office?• To start using the software package Demetra more widely

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• To share the experience in seasonal adjustment and its publication with international

organizations and national statistical offices. Discussions on major issues related to the different methods.


Mongolia


• Lack of experience in seasonal adjustment. If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• Pilot estimation for seasonal adjustment has been carried out, not published

Are there problems or challenges?• Lack of experience

Future plans of your office?• Estimate the seasonally adjusted data such as macro economic main

indicators and publishing statistical yearbooks, bulletins and other documents.

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• To develop the recommendation of seasonal adjustment methodology.


Tajikistan

Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal adjustment? • Seasonal adjustment carried out and published for freight/passenger

transport and for the volume of paid services. Publication in Tajik and Russian.

If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?• Pilot estimation for seasonal adjustment has been carried out, not

published Are there problems or challenges?

• Inexperienced staff in seasonal adjustment, using current seasonal adjustment programs seen as too time-consuming.

Future plans of your office?• xxx

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• xxx


Turkmenistan


• Our office does not seasonally adjust data. If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• Seasonally adjusted data are not produced, nor published Are there problems or challenges?

• - Future plans of your office?

• To get knowledge about the methods and how to use them Your expectations towards the Workshop?

• To hear about the experiences of other countries in this area of work


Ukraine Please describe your office’s experience with seasonal

adjustment? • Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP have been published since 2004 (with

X-11-ARIMA) If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP at a disaggregated level • STS indicators are not adjusted for seasonality

Are there problems or challenges?• A seminar on seasonal adjustment in April 2010 gave impetus to start work

in this direction in STS; system knowledge needed, no trained staff. Future plans of your office?

• Seasonal adjustment of the index of industrial production Your expectations towards the Workshop?

• To obtain the desired theoretical and practical experience (for the adjustment procedure and answers to specific questions).


Uzbekistan


• Seasonal adjustment is currently not done If you seasonally adjust, which indicators? Are they published?

• Seasonal adjustment are not published Are there problems or challenges?

• More experience needed, methods for discrete data to be studied Future plans of your office?

• Next step is to study of international experience, guidelines of international organizations and how to introduce SA in Uzbekistan

Your expectations towards the Workshop?• Gaining experience and applying it in compilation of statistical

round table round table current state of seasonal adjustment in countries/ unece workshop on...

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