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Cooperative and automated vehicles in QueenslandDr Miranda BloggQueensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, [email protected] 3 - Evaluation of connected and increasingly automated vehicles
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Our values, our diversity
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What is happening in Queensland?Cooperative and automated vehicle initiative (CAVI)Pilot of cooperative intelligent transport systems (CITS) Pilot cooperative and highly automated driving (CHAD)
ObjectivesGrow technical and organisation readiness Validate safety benefits of the applications, and user perceptionsEncourage partnerships and build capability Demonstrate and build public awareness and uptake
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Southeast Queensland AssessmentC-ITS Rapid cost benefit assessment Focus on safety use-case applications 2020 – 2050 (30 year period) Uses todays transport model
eCAV – electric, cooperative and automated vehicle Customised transport model for eCAV Scenario years 2036 and 2046
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C-ITS cost benefit assessment
pessimistic, moderate, optimisticPenetration
Costs
Benefits
vehicle, roadside, central
Travel time, crashes, fuel, emissions
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BenefitsC-ITS applications Crash type Fatal Injury
Roadworks warningSingle vehicle hit objectSide collision Rear-end
9%10%7%
10%3%5%
Weather warning Water over road 3% 4%Automatic Crash Notification All 3% 3%Emergency electronic brake light, Back of queue warning Rear-end 12% 10%
Red light violator Unsignalised intersection violation
Red light violationDisobeyed stop signDisobeyed give way
27% 27%
Right turn assist Right turn 55% 55%TOTAL All crash types 20% 20%
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C-ITS total fleet penetration
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30 years from 2021 Pessimistic Moderate OptimisticUpfront costs ($m)
Central ITS 11.1 15.6 17.5Roadside ITS 21.3 21.3 21.3In-vehicle 71.8 328.9 442.2Sub-total ($m) 128.8 390.4 505.6
Ongoing costs ($m)Central ITS 21.2 25.9 25.9Roadside ITS 78.6 78.6 78.6In-vehicle 62.3 295.7 432.7Sub-total ($m) 146.8 400.2 537.2Total ($m) 275.6 790.6 1,042.9
Benefits ($m)Crash savings 399.6 1,878.1 2,754.5Crash delays 17.4 82.0 104.8Fuel savings 94.8 448.3 656.2Emissions 63.8 298.2 438.1Total ($m) 575.7 2,706.6 3,953.5
Net present value ($m) 300.1 1,916.0 2,910.7Benefit cost ratio 2.1 3.4 3.8
NPV/I 1.1 2.4 2.8
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eCAV modelAssumptions:
Mixed; 100% eCAV AV travel time more useful = lower cost of time (60-100% reduction) AV plus electric = lower cost of travel (50-75 % reduction) AV plus C-ITS = faster travel (20; 25% increase) AV plus C-ITS = greater densities (5; 20% increase) No need for a driver = more utility and new trips (10; 15% increase) Unoccupied driving or dead running = not included Shared eCAV = costs less than taxi; some trips less than private car
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eCAV total fleet penetrationProportion of AV remains fairly low until the mid 2030 – so first model year is 2036eCAV penetration2036 moderate 12% 2036 aggressive 45%2046 moderate 62% 2046 aggressive 100%
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eCAV model resultsMixed fleet (all years) eCAV people travelling further and more often (lower costs) increase in capacity, which is consumed by traditional vehicles other modes also decrease portion of congested roads increases more traditional vehicles = more exposure and more crashes
100% eCAV and shared eCAV fleet (70% shared) better than existing base year traffic conditions
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eCAV policy considerations Minimise the transition period (mixed traffic) Maximise AV uptake through supportive policy to shorten transition Look for ways in which pricing could ease the transition Support the cultural changes necessary for shared services
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We welcome you to join IBEC…get in touch at [email protected]
ContactsAndrew Somers, Co-chair IBEC [email protected] Geers, Co-chair IBEC [email protected] Popova, ERTICO. Email: [email protected]