RSK @ STIRLING

Institute of Water Autumn Seminar

Andrew Gunning

Agenda

1. Introductions

2. An approach to the Risk Management Process

3. Environmental Risk Management – project examples

Shale gas and groundwater protection

Carbon dioxide from minewater

4. Climate Risk Management – project examples

COCC – Resilience in the water sector and the energy & water trilemma

Strategy development – water in Construction

5. Wrap up

October 2019 2

Institute of Water Autumn Seminar

‘The development of environmental & climate risk management strategies

with reference to the water environment.’

12 November 2019 3

1. Introductions

Andrew Gunning / RSK

IntroductionAndrew Gunning, Managing Director RSK @ Stirling

Andrew has wide experience in risk management and mitigation in

the water, energy, mining, construction and utility sectors and leads

an experienced team of hydrogeologists, hydrologists,

meteorologists and engineers in providing consultancy services

which include environmental and climate risk management. Andrew

is based at Stirling, Scotland.

In addition to technical expertise in hydrogeology and geothermal

energy, Andrew is an experienced Company Director and has skills

in leadership and innovation alongside commercial and project

management expertise. He is educated to MSc level in applied

geology (Newcastle University), has a Diploma in Company

Direction (Institute of Directors).

October 2019 4

http://tiny.cc/khcjfz

agunning@rsk.co.ukE:

RSK Group History

RSK UK and Ireland office Locations

Largest privately owned UK based environmental

firm

Growth from 1 person to over 3500 people over 30

years

Our success is based on our client focused

approach

100 offices across UK, Europe, Africa, Former

Soviet Union and Middle East

Leading provider of environmental and engineering

services

Trusted advisor to 7,000 active clients in the public

and private sectors including water, agriculture,

transport and energy.

RSK Worldwide

RSK Key Clients

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RSK @ Stirling

Our Services:

Climate & Environmental Risk Management

Environmental permitting

Surface Water management

Geology and Groundwater assessment

Geothermal studies

Clients Include:

Government

Energy and Oil & Gas companies

Utilities

Developers and Main Contractors

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2. The Risk Management Process

Risk Management ISO 31000:2018

Provides generic guidelines

Creates and protect value in organizations and

processes by managing risks, making decisions, setting

and achieving objectives and improving performance.

Managing risk is iterative and assists in setting

strategies, achieving objectives and making informed

decisions.

Managing risk is part of all activities associated with an

organization or process and includes interaction with

stakeholders.

Managing risk considers the external and internal

context, including human behavior.

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Establish Context

Identify risks

Analyse risks

Evaluate risks

Treat Risks

Co

mm

un

icate an

d co

nsu

lt

Mo

nit

or

and

re

vie

w

Risk assessment

12/11/2019 WP5.3 EQUP4RISK RSKW UEdin 12

This is an

implementation of

the ISO 31000

risk management

framework for the

energy sector

RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES

Defining Risk

Risk is typically defined as:

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*(In seismic risk assessment Value is called Exposure)

𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘 = 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 × 𝑉𝑢𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 × 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

Likelihood of

event/hazard,

how often

Intrinsic predisposition to

suffer ‘damage’ as a result of

the event/hazard or source

of risk

Cost of

event/hazard or

consequence

*

Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives

Vincente et al (2011), Enzenhoefer et al (2015), Kelly et al (2018).

Some of the important issues in risk management

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Perception of risk – particularly amongst non scientific audiences and the general public

Experience suggests it is crucial that stakeholders understand the risks in a project even if the risks are

low as these risks can be misinterpreted and a ‘social license to operate’ not obtained;

The social license - the ongoing acceptance of an organization’s business practices by its employees,

stakeholders & the general public.

Assessment of risk – not appreciating risks in a project may have catastrophic consequences in

extreme cases

Consequences can be immediate or result in a long term legacy

Treatment of risk – most effective and least cost at the feasibility stage of a project

Risk Perception

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The Perception of project related risks can vary

considerably particularly for high impact low

probability events:

For Example:

Nuclear - HIGH IMPACT LOW PROBABILITY

RISKS: Fukishima, Chernobyl, Three Mile island

Offshore oil & gas HIGH IMPACT LOW

PROBABILITY RISKS: Deepwater offshore

conventional oil and gas – Macondo GoM

In other cases the perception of risks sometimes not proportionate to actual risks

The Risk Assessment Process

Risk identification

Find, recognize and describe risks that might help or prevent an

organization achieving its objectives. Relevant, appropriate and up-

to-date information is important in identifying risks.

Risk analysis

The purpose of risk analysis is to comprehend the nature of risk

and its characteristics including, where appropriate, the level of

risk. Risk analysis involves a detailed consideration of

uncertainties, risk sources, consequences, likelihood, events,

scenarios, controls and their effectiveness.

Risk evaluation

The purpose of risk evaluation is to support decisions. Risk

evaluation involves comparing the results of the risk analysis with

the established risk criteria to determine where additional action is

required.

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Risk Treatment

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Most effective during

the project planning

stage

Some international

examples follow

where treatment

proved to be very

expensive

Flint, Michigan : Switching to a new water source

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Since the 1960’s the Detroit water and sewerage department

supplied Flint, Michigan with reliable clean drinking water.

• Major issue was the cost - Residents had urged their

leaders to relieve the burden of pricey water.

• Flint had one advantage - it’s own water treatment

works was already in place as an emergency backup.

Therefore changed supply from potable DWSD water to a raw

water supply from Karegnondi Water Authority. There was a

drawback that the raw water pipeline was delayed.

Flint City rebooted the old treatment plant and switched to

using raw water from the Flint River as an interim measure.

• An outbreak of Legionnaires' disease followed, and

residents were found to have drunk water poisoned

with lead. Twelve people died

• Nearly 100,000 residents of Flint were left without safe

tap water and at risk of lead poisoning.

The month of the water switch, Flint’s utilities administrator, Michael

Glasgow, didn’t believe the plant was ready. He emailed three people at the

Michigan department of environmental quality (MDEQ) with a warning. “I

have people above me making plans” to distribute the water as soon as

possible.” Guardian Website 2018

Best Intentions - Switching to a new water source

Bengal Basin, Bangladesh

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Many of those living in the delta relied upon surface water sources such as

rivers and ponds. Most of these water sources were microbiologically unsafe,

and, diarrheal diseases and cholera were widely prevalent.

Groundwater tapped from only a few meters below the ground surface

was considered to be microbiologically safe; this led to the installation

since the 1930’s of shallow tubewells 10 -70m in depth with the aim of

providing safe water for the population and thus reducing diarrheal

diseases.

Ultimately, by the nineties, 97% of the total population of Bangladesh

had access to microbiologically safe drinking water through tubewells.

In 1995, when villagers began to display symptoms of poisoning such

as major skin lesions, did experts realize that the water was heavily

polluted.

Since 1995, the UK: BGS has led a major survey of arsenic in

Bangladeshi groundwater," and has been trying, in part, to steer

villagers towards the least polluted wells

Millions of people in Bangladesh

continue to drink water tainted with

arsenic.

The problem has been described as

the worst mass poisoning in history -

health experts estimate that 100,000

people living on the Bengal delta

have suffered debilitating skin

lesions. Other effects of the

contamination include cancer and

neurological problems.

12 November 2019 20

2. Environmental Risk Management

Shale Gas & Groundwater Protection

The Development of a risk management strategy for shale gas

• The SHEER project – an international consortia carried

out a three year EC Horizon 2020 funded investigation

into environmental risk associated with shale oil and gas

development within the European Union.

• A key feature of the programme of work has been the

independent monitoring of a shale gas well at Wysin,

Poland, through a network of seismic, groundwater and

air quality measurement arrays and shallow borehole

sensors both in advance of and subsequent to hydraulic

fracturing operations.

• Shallow drinking water aquifer consisting of Quaternary

glacial and fluvio-glacial deposits, silts, sands & peat

used as a drinking water aquifer and with high hydraulic

conductivity.

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Dissolved Gases

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BGS metal flow

through bombs

Isotech IsoFlask®

sample container

BGR glass containers

acidified with HCl

Need to incorporate Uncertainty in the risk analysis

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Parameters:

Hydrogeological

Flow paths

Geological model uncertainty

Anthropogenic uncertainty e.g. abandoned

boreholes/mine workings etc

Equipt4Risk WP5 aims to integrate spatially and

temporally the cumulative risk posed by seismicity

and water and air pollution from shale gas

development in the UK

We are developing a methodology and platform to

allow robust aggregation of risks for different hazards

based on the Source-Pathway-Receptor concept

12 November 2019 25

3. Climate Risk Management

Colin Summerhayes: Earth's Climate Evolution- a Geological

Perspective

12 November 2019 26

There has been an insulation driven

temperature decline over the past

2,000 years, with smaller variations

around that downward trend caused

by solar effects.

The black line in the bottom graph is

from paleoclimate data.

Since the 1970s, the global

temperature has gone beyond the

normal window of insulation and

solar effects. This seems to be

caused by greenhouse gases

humans are putting into the

atmosphere.

Invention of the Watt

steam engine in 1776

IPCC Figures

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These figures show the effect on extreme

temperatures when (a) mean temperature

increases, (b) variance increases, and (c) when

both mean and variance increase. (Figures from

the IPCC’s Climate Change 2001: Impacts,

Adaptation, and Vulnerability)

12 November 2019 28

3. Climate Risk Management

Mine gas, rising groundwater and more extrem

weather events

Research

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Research project to investigate prevalence of CO2

from disused mineral mines and the implications

for residential buildings

For over a century CO2 at high concentrations has been recognised as

a workplace hazard.

During April 2014, a number of cases of ill health were reported to be

affecting some residents in the former mining area of Gorebridge,

Midlothian.

22 residents were hospitalized and ultimately 64 Houses demolished

at a cost of £6Mn, several court cases resulted from the incident and

are still ongoing.

Summary of Incidents in Scotland

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03/11/1994, Coalburn, South Lanarkshire - 1 residential property

30/05/1995, Coalburn, South Lanarkshire

08/08/1999, Kirkconnel, Dumfries and Galloway -Number of animal

fatalities

09/08/1999, Kirkconnel, Dumfries and Galloway - Number of bird and

small animal fatalities

12/08/1999, Kirkconnel, Dumfries and Galloway

28/06/2001, Dysart, Fife - 1 harbour store

25/10/2002, Fife (no village listed) - 1 Elderly woman (1 residential

property)

01/04/2004, Thornton, Fife - Multiple residential properties

10/11/2010, Coalburn, South Lanarkshire - 1 property

April 2014, Gorebridge, Midlothian - 165 people (22 for healthcare)

Wrona, P., Różański, Z., Pach, G. et al. Environ Earth Sci (2016) 75: 1139.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5977-7

More robust enforcement, risk assessment, and mitigation will

help to prevent further instances of ill-health in residential

buildings from CO2 associated with abandoned mine workings.

12 November 2019 31

3. Climate Risk Management

COCC – Resilience in the water sector and the

water trilemma

RSK ADAS - Research to update the evidence base for indicators of climate-related risks and actions in England (2019) Report to the Committee on Climate

The Adaptation Committee of the Committee on Climate Change provide advice to the UK Government and

Devolved Administrations on emissions targets and the current and future risks to the country from climate

change; and report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for

climate change.

2 Infrastructure 2.1 Design and location of new infrastructure2.2 Resilience of energy infrastructure services 2.3 Resilience of public water infrastructure services 2.4 Resilience of road and rail network infrastructure services

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Sp

en

d o

n r

esili

en

ce

(£

m)

Year

Total and forecast spend on resilience by all water companies from 2008-09 to 2024-25 (£m)

• Spend on resilience by all water companies in England and Wales (both water and sewerage, and water only) from 2008 to 2025.

• Actual spend for 2008-09 to 2017-18 is, as reported to Ofwat.

• Forecast spend for 2018-19 to 2024-25, as reported to Ofwat in water companies PR19 Business Plans.

Source: Figure 2.13 in ADAS (2019) Research to update the evidence base for indicators of

climate-related risks and actions in England. Report to the Committee on Climate Change.

Water company spend on resilience

An overall challenge – which has

become known as the ‘‘energy (or

water) trilemma’’ – is to

simultaneously satisfy three

imperatives: affordability, security of

supply and decarbonisation. Younger

PY (2016).

Security of Supply

Affordability Decarbonise

12 November 2019 34

2. Climate Risk Management

Strategy development – water in Construction

The Met Office 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

indicate that the UK is likely to experience milder, wetter

winters and hotter, drier summers in the future due to

climate change. We are also likely to see more extreme

weather events including flooding and droughts.

Strategy development – water in Construction

October 2019 35

Water is Vital to our Business

Climate change

Water Scarcity

Population and Urban Grown

Legend

Low (<10%)

Low to medium (10-20%)

Medium to high (20-40%)

High (40-80%)

Extremely high (>80%)

Arid & low water use

No data

Baseline water stress in the UK. Total annual water

withdrawals/total available annual renewable supply,

accounting for upstream consumptive use (Water

Resources Institute, Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas

Strategy development – water in Construction

October 2019 36

Water is Vital

Risks in

Climate change

Water Scarcity

Population and Urban Grown

Projected population increase for low (left) and high (right) scenarios

(*Sayers and Partners LLP)

Vision and Objective

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Vision

Our business’s vision, mission, core values and cultural principles are tied with sustainability and set

our goals for the future. We aim to reduce water use in our operations and our supply chain, design

our homes to be more water efficient, protect water quality and reduce flood risk. We aim to

integrate water management into our company’s values.

Objective

We aim to use water carefully and increase the water efficiency of our sites through all aspects of

our business model, where sustainability is integrated at every stage: selecting land, managing the

planning and community engagement process, getting the homebuilding basics right, delivering

customer service, our people, and optimising value.

Best Practice

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Leaks – report and fix leaks as soon as they are discovered

Taps – report and fix dripping taps as soon as they are

discovered

Percussion Taps – check these come as standard on new

welfare facilities

Hoses – Install trigger control on all hoses

Sprinklers – Ensure careful placement and management of

sprinklers when watering gardens

An approach to the Risk Management Process

Environmental Risk Management – project examples

Shale gas and groundwater protection

Carbon dioxide from minewater

Climate Risk Management – project examples

COCC – Resilience in the water sector and the energy & water trilemma

Strategy development – water in Construction

Wrap up

October 2019 39

Institute of Water Autumn Seminar

‘The development of environmental & climate risk management strategies

with reference to the water environment.’

October 2019 40

Thank you

Any QuestionsAndrew Gunning CGeol FGS CEng MCIWEM

Managing Director

RSK @ Stirling, Unit 11 Beta Centre,

Stirling University Innovation Park,

Stirling, FK9 4NF

Scotland UK