RTB progress, priorities and planning for climate

resilience Jan 22

2016

RTB PROGRAM

A COLLABORATION OF:

• Broad based collaborative platform • Around 200+ research-for-development

stakeholders & partners • Including private sector

Banana Plantain

Cassava Potato Sweetpotato Yam Other R&T

300 million small holder farmers and processors depend on RTB crops Buffering role in food systems

Our Crops

RTBs share • Genetic complexity • Vegetative propagation, similar seed systems

• Perishability, bulkiness and post harvest/value chain options

Why Roots, Tubers and Bananas?

Biological constraints to breeding

Breeding complexity

Banana Cassava Potato Sweet potato

Yam

Multi-species + - + - + Polyploidy +++ - ++ ++ ++ Clonal propagation + + + + + Heterozygosity ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ Multiplication rate/year 1:10 1:5 1:10 1:15 1:20

Other constraints: • Low seed setting • Low germination • Crossing difficulties • Long generation time

RTB ACHIEVEMENTS

1. Adding value synergistic research: breeding

• Sequencing and phenotyping data • Support genomic analyses (GWAS, GS)

for complex traits (eg. potato tuberization and early bulking, fertility and fruit quality in banana)

• Common Vision RTB data management and bio-informatics • Promote linkages CassavaBase,

SweetpotatoBase, MusaBase etc with Integrated Breeding Platform and multiple crop/center tools

August 2015, Bioversity Montpellier

January 2015, Ithaca

1. Adding value synergistic research: breeding

Integrating End User Preferences in RTB Breeding – Workshop Kampala (Feb 2015)

Critical gaps: working across disciplines to fill gaps in knowledge and technical support to bring greater “end-user awareness” to public sector

• Biological and socio-economic surveys pests and diseases along altitudinal gradients

• Modelling to understand degeneration of planting material and design cost effective interventions

• Improvement of energy efficiency in cassava processing & adding value to RTB waste products

1. Adding value: seed, pests and diseases and post harvest

•Collaboration with ILRI and CRP Livestock & Fish and CRP Humidtropics

1. Adding value: example

Seed degeneration and modelling seed systems • Yield loss viruses and seed

system major shared constraint

• Knowledge gap on actual losses and degeneration

• Common framework: banana, cassava, potato, sweetpotato, yam

• CG centers, KSU + NARS

General procedure: Field trials linked to modeling

Sara (KSU)

Planning Implementing

Data management Publishing

Evidence based policy

Building a Culture of Collaboration Planning

2. Platform for engaging partners

• RTB part of GCP21 governance • Enthusiastically supports GCP21

and ISTRC as partnership organizations

2. Platform for engaging partners

Co-constructed impact pathways: • Results frameworks

validated at national/regional level

• Basis for defining roles,

synergies and coordination mechanisms

Cassava processing, Nigeria

Potato seed system, Kenya

3. Integrating gender into core research

• Targeted and linked up approach for gender research: – Gender and breeding – RTB & NEXTGEN Cassava

project pilot study on gender differentiated preferences for cassava traits in Nigeria

• Critical gaps and building capacity with RTB-University Partnership Gender Integration initiative – 9 universities and 6 students in

2015

1. Notable progress in past 4 years

2. RTB strongly warrants continuing

3. Well directed, achieving reasonable # of milestones

4. Adding value across crops and centers

5. Science sound 6. NARs appreciative

4. Outstanding external review - IEA

• RTB-ENDURE: Expanding utilization of roots, tubers and bananas and reducing their postharvest losses

• Product differentiation in cooking banana value chain

• Sweetpotato and RTB crop residues for pig feeds

• Postharvest innovations for better access to specialized ware potato markets

• Extending shelf-life of fresh cassava roots

5. RTB led projects

Nigeria Cassava Value Chain & project

Breeder Seed

Foundation seed

Commercial seed growers

Farmers / Seed Users

Seed Quality & Protocols

Seed & Information

Consumer Demand & Money

M&E

Cassava seed value chain workshop

RTB facilitated IITA

Context Network Fera SAH

NRCRI NASC

CGIAR AND RTB CHANGES UNDERWAY!

3 System Level Outcomes ----------------------------- 10 Programmatic Intermediate Development Outcomes (IDOs) 30 Programmatic sub-IDOs ------------------------------ 4 Cross-cutting IDOs 16 Cross-cutting sub-IDOs ------------------------------ 8 Global Challenges

Global integrating programs

Portfolio of CGIAR Research Programs

Dryland Cereals and Legumes systems

Fish agri-food systems

Forest and Agroforestry systems

Livestock agri-food systems

Maize agrifood systems

Rice agri-food systems

Roots, tubers and bananas systems

Wheat agri-food systems

NUTRITION

&

HEALTH

PI

M

WLE

CLI

MATE

CHANGE

Agri-food systems programs

Genebanks

Total number of beneficiaries (2022)1 Primary target countries 20,000,000 people (50% women) increased their income 30,000 small and medium enterprises operating more profitably in RTB seed and processing sectors

Africa: Burundi, Cameroon⁺, Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)⁺, Ethiopia⁺⁺, Ghana⁺, Ivory Coast, Kenya⁺, Malawi⁺, Mozambique⁺, Nigeria⁺⁺, Rwanda⁺, Tanzania⁺⁺, Uganda⁺, Zambia⁺ Americas: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Haiti, Peru Asia: Bangladesh⁺⁺, China, India⁺, Indonesia, Nepal⁺, Thailand, The Philippines, Vietnam⁺⁺

8,000,000 farm households increased RTB yield through adoption of improved varieties and sustainable management practices

10,000,000 people (50% women) improved their diet quality (measured by dietary diversity score)

800,000 ha of farm land with soil carbon and nutrients content improved

1,700,000 ha of current RTB production area converted to sustainable cropping systems

CRP Second Phase 2017-2022

• Pre-proposal submission and review 2015

– Highly collaborative writing team! – Close engagement Humidtropics CRP

• Submission of full proposal and review 2016 – Writing process underway

RTB New Program Structure

Six big achievements of RTB!

1. Adding value through synergistic, cross crop research

2. Platform for engaging broad range of partners: ARIs, national programs, private sector and NGOs

3. Integrating gender into core research activities 4. Outstanding external review! 5. RTB led projects in Uganda on post harvest

innovation and Nigeria on cassava seed 6. Successfully transitioning to a new agri-food

system CRP as part of CGIAR reform

RTB PLANNING FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE: POVERTY IMPACTS

Sub-Saharan Africa most vulnerable: price rises and climate change

World Bank 2016 – Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

Food price rises could lead to big increases in poverty

World Bank 2016

Per-capita food demand

IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

Cereals

Meat

Roots & tubers

Pulses

Oilseeds

Fruits & veg

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;

Population at risk of hunger: different climate change scenarios

IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean

Technological change dampening increased food costs: esp SSA

Incr

ease

d fo

od c

osts

World Bank 2016

1. Climate change will increase food prices 2. Increasing food prices worsens extreme poverty 3. Per capita demand for roots and tubers in SSA

significantly higher than cereals in 2050 4. High global emissions scenario, population at risk of

hunger declines markedly in most of world, but only slightly in SSA

5. Technological change in roots and tubers essential to dampen food price increases and risk of hunger under any climate change scenario

Climate change, poverty and roots and tubers

World Bank 2016

RTB PLANNING FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE: CROP MODELLING

Is cassava the answer to African climate change adaptation? A. Jarvis et al

1.Projections 2030 2.Cassava positively impacted many areas

−3.7% to +17.5% changes climate suitability 3.Other staples (−16% ± 8.8), potato

(−14.7 ± 8.2), banana (−2.5% ± 4.9), and sorghum (−2.66% ± 6.45)

4.Ecological niche modeling: cassava mosaic disease, whitefly, brown streak disease and cassava mealybug

Pest Risk Assessment and Climate Change Target Sites along Altitudinal Gradients

Rusizi Basin, Burundi Climate gradient Burundi, Rusizi Basin: 900 to 2600 m Rwanda, Ruhengeri: 1400 to 2600 m

BXW & Fusarium wilt

CMD, CBSD & whiteflies

Altitude Effects on RTB Pest/Diseases

Native Potatoes shift to higher altitudes

Shift to higher altitudes of native potatoes

297m in 50 years

Source: Juarez, Pasencia and De Haan

``

`` Generation index

[2000] Phthorimaea operculella

0 1-2 generations / year 3-4 generations / year 5-6 generations / year 7-8 generations / year 8-9 generations / year

``

`` Generation index

[2050] Phthorimaea operculella

0 1-2 generations / year 3-4 generations / year 5-6 generations / year 7-8 generations / year 8-9 generations / year

Climate change: potato tuber moth distribution

Economic threshold >4 generations per year Increase from 25.9%

to 37.0% total area by 2050.

Kroschel, J., Sporleder, M., Tonnang, H.E.Z., Juarez, H., Carhuapoma, P., Gonzales, J.C. and Simon, R. (2013) Predicting climate change caused changes in global temperature on potato tuber moth Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) distribution and abundance using phenology modeling and GIS mapping. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170:228-241.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

TGA

(mg/

100

g, F

W)

La Molina Winter San Ramon

Monitoring Food Safety w/ Climate Change

Total Glycoalkaloid concentration (TGA) advanced heat tolerant, disease resistant potato clones

Normal versus high temperature conditions in Peru

Max safe TGA

Breeder’s goal max.

TGA

Source: Bonierbale, Zum Felde

RTB PLANNING FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE: RESEARCH OPTIONS

Screening sweetpotato for heat tolerance

• Evaluation environments (N. Peru):

-heat stress (summer): Ø soil temp. at night: 30 °C -no-heat stress (winter): Ø soil temp. at night 24 °C

• Plant material: 1973 germplasm accessions CIP genebank.

• Key prioritized traits: heat tolerance and early bulking, plant performance and yield related traits assessed.

• Remote sensing fast throughput method to screen effects of heat on biochemical and physiological processes

Experimental site in Piura during winter.

Yields of storage roots vs. pencil roots represent an indicator for heat tolerance.

Aerial picture: summer 2014 heat stress exposure at maximum storage root bulking.

Thermographic image: of summer 2014 heat stress exposure at maximum storage root bulking.

Results • Large fraction

sweetpotato germplasm heat stress tolerant (i.e., 305 clones with yields >12.2 t ha-1 under stress).

• Considerable genetic variation heat stress

• Large pool favorable alleles to heat stress

• Large and sustainable genetic gains expected

Bettina Heider1, Elisa Romero1, Raul Eyzaguirre1, Wolfgang Grüneberg1, Emile Faye2, Stef de Haan1,3 and Merideth Bonierbale1

1= CIP, 2=IRD (Institut de recherche pour le développement), 3=CIAT

Root System Architecture and its Potential Role in Stress Tolerance in

RTB Crops Awais Khan

December 8, 2015

Root Traits are Positively Correlated with HI and Tuber Yield under Drought Stress

New paradigm of Genomics-Assisted Climate Sensitive Breeding

Varshney et al. 2014

Foresight, models and metrics for climate sensitive breeding

Do what we were already doing but:

Faster Better

More intelligently

8. Wrap up

1. Climate change increase food prices and poverty 2. Largest effect SSA: roots and tubers primary staple 3. Complex picture of climate change impacts 4. Considerable scope adaptation roots and tubers 5. Very large unknowns and unexpected effects 6. Climate sensitive breeding priority 7. Breeding metrics: faster, better, more intelligent 8. High priority for RTB to support teaming up!