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RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY
JUNE 29, 2015
1
Copyright © 2003-2015.
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
Research Department
RTS, MICEX, MSCI EM Indices
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920930940950960970980990
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MSCI EM RTS MICEX (RHS)
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MICEX VOL. ($ MLN) LSE VOL. ($ MLN)
Source: Bloomberg
RTS, MICEX, MSCI EM Indices Close Day YtD
RTS 943.0 0.18% ▲ 19.3% ▲
M ICEX 1,644.5 0.76% ▲ 17.7% ▲
Dow Jones 17,946.7 0.31% ▲ 0.7% ▲
S&P 500 2,101.5 -0.04% ▼ 2.1% ▲
NIKKEI* 20,150.5 -2.68% ▼ 15.5% ▲
Shanghai Comp.* 4,013.1 -4.29% ▼ 24.1% ▲
FTSE 6,753.7 -0.80% ▼ 2.9% ▲
Straits Times 3,272.6 -1.87% ▼ -2.8% ▼
DAX 11,492.4 0.17% ▲ 17.2% ▲
M SCI EM 980.6 -0.76% ▼ 2.5% ▲
Bovespa 54,017.0 1.58% ▲ 8.0% ▲
* as at 9 a.m. (Moscow time) Source: Bloomberg
Commodity, FX Close Day YtD
WTI 59.6 0.13% ▲ 11.9% ▲
Brent 62.4 -1.50% ▼ 8.9% ▲
Gold 1,183.7 0.78% ▲ -0.2% ▼
Copper 5,755.0 -0.26% ▼ -8.7% ▼
Aluminium 1,704.0 -1.10% ▼ -8.0% ▼
Nickel 12,450.0 -1.97% ▼ -17.8% ▼
USD/RUB 55.45 1.26% ▲ -5.0% ▼
EUR/USD 1.10 -1.77% ▼ -9.2% ▼
UST10 2.30 -9 bps ▼ 13 bps ▲
Source: Bloomberg
Outperformers and underperformers
Global Ports, GDR
M.Video
CTC Media
OGK-5
O'KEY, GDR
RTS
Uralkali
Magnit
Sistema
Sistema, GDR
Rostelecom, GDR
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Source: Bloomberg
MARKET COMMENT
Russian Market
Russian equities logged marginal gains on Friday, capping a three-
day decline.
The best performers included Magnit and Uralkali, which surged by
more than 4%.
Global Markets
Greek PM Alexei Tsipras broke off debt talks over the weekend and
called a nationwide referendum for July 5 on whether or not to
accept the terms of the bailout. Yesterday, Greek authorities
imposed capital controls, and all banks and the stock market are
set to remain closed for a week.
The PBoC over the weekend cut both the benchmark lending rate
and the reserve requirement ratio for some banks in response to
the recent brutal sell-off on the Chinese equity market.
Commodities and currencies
Oil is down over 1% this morning on the bank of the Greek crisis
and a rising dollar, with Brent trading around $62.5/bbl.
The ruble was steady ahead of the weekend, but looks set to fall
today as the dollar is trading back above RUB 55.
Forecast for today
Global equity markets are down 1.5-2.0% across the board, while
China is 3.2% in the red despite the measures taken by the
country’s central bank. The local bourse will not avoid a pullback
and we expect the Russian market to gap 1.5-2.0% lower at the
opening.
Economic data. Macro data will be on the back burner today, all
the more since the only key data are due out of the Eurozone,
including EU consumer confidence (12:00 Moscow time) and
Germany’s CPI (15:00).
Alexander Nazarov +7 (495) 980 43 81
NEWS
Inter RAO may sell assets in Armenia. Neutral
RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY
JUNE 29, 2015
2
Copyright © 2003-2015.
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
Research Department
UTILITIES
INTER RAO
Ticker IRAO RX
Current Price RUB 1.21
Target Price RUB 1.50
Upside 24%
Rating OVERWEIGHT
Inter RAO may sell assets in Armenia. Neutral
News: Inter RAO may be forced to sell its stake in the company Electric
Networks of Armenia, according to today’s Kommersant.
Effect on the company: In addition to Electric Networks of Armenia, the
Armenia segment of Inter RAO’s consolidated financials includes OAO
RazTES. Overall, this segment accounted for 2% of Inter RAO’s
consolidated revenues and 1.7% of consolidated EBITDA in 2014.
Effect on shares: The possible sale of the assets in Armenia should not
have a significant impact on the company’s share price due to the low
share of Armenian assets in the group’s consolidated financial results
Matvey Tayts
+7 (495) 980 43 89
RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY
JUNE 29, 2015
3
Copyright © 2003-2015.
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
Research Department
COVERAGE UNIVERSE
Issuer Ticker Currency Price TP Upside Rating Mcap 1D 5D 1M 3M 1Y MTD YTD P/E 14 P/E 15 EV/EBITDA 14 EV/EBITDA 15 Oil & Gas Gazprom GAZP RX RUB 145,2 201,2 39% OW 62 031 1,0% -1,3% 4,5% 7,6% -2,8% 4,5% 11,4% 1,9 2,0 2,0 1,9 NOVATEK NVTK LI USD 100,5 161,0 60% OW 30 515 2,0% -0,5% -0,4% 37,3% -20,2% -0,4% 28,2% 9,0 6,4 8,1 6,6 Rosneft ROSN RX RUB 229,9 311,7 36% N 43 976 -3,6% -8,0% -1,8% -3,1% -7,9% -1,8% 17,4% 5,9 5,5 3,2 2,9 Lukoil LKOD LI USD 44 54 25% N 37 042 -1,4% -5,1% -9,2% -2,9% -27,2% -9,2% 9,4% 7,8 13,3 2,6 3,7 Surgutneftegaz SNGS RX RUB 33,5 31,8 -5% N 21 601 0,2% -1,1% 8,1% -4,6% 25,9% 8,1% 42,4% 7,1 7,4 1,8 1,8 Surgutneftegaz prefs SNGSP RX RUB 42,5 28,3 -33% N 5 911 0,5% 1,0% 14,3% 2,0% 50,5% 14,3% 44,2% Gazprom Neft SIBN RX RUB 136,6 201,2 47% OW 11 689 0,8% -0,8% -0,9% -12,3% -7,6% -0,9% -4,5% 2,4 2,3 1,4 1,6 Tatneft (ADR) ATAD LI USD 32,8 32,1 -2% N 11 921 1,2% 3,0% -2,1% 16,6% -16,3% -2,1% 34,0% 9,7 7,6 6,1 5,0 Tatneft pref TATNP RX RUB 157,6 216,9 38% OW 420 0,2% 2,3% 1,7% -1,7% 20,3% 1,7% 17,5% Bashneft BANE RX RUB 1890 2323 23% N 5 043 0,1% -1,9% -5,5% 0,0% -21,4% -5,5% 51,2% 3,3 3,4 2,3 2,5 Bashneft pref BANEP RX RUB 1415 1861 32% N 761 3,1% -2,1% -6,5% 7,5% -14,3% -6,5% 53,5%
Transneft pref TRNFP RX RUB 129600 76309 -41% UW 3 637 0,5% -0,8% 5,0% 4,4% 75,1% 5,0% 2,9% C.A.T. oil O2C GR EUR 10,1 u/r u/r 542 1,0% 1,0% -14,0% -4,5% -45,5% -14,0% -31,5% Eurasia Drilling Co. EDCL LI USD 17,0 u/r u/r 2 497 1,2% -5,0% -15,0% -11,2% -46,0% -15,0% -4,5% IGSS IGSS LI USD 9,5 u/r u/r 99 0,0% 0,0% -5,0% -5,0% -64,8% -5,0% -28,0% Metals Norilsk Nickel MNOD LI USD 17,5 26,2 50% OW 27 638 1,1% -2,4% -0,9% 0,4% -12,3% -0,9% 22,8% 8,8 6,9 6,1 5,0 Alrosa ALRS RX USD 1,1 1,5 31% OW 8 434 1,0% 1,5% 0,3% -9,7% 51,1% 0,3% 0,7% 7,2 6,2 5,5 4,8 Rusal 486 HK HKD 3,9 4,7 20% N 7 682 0,3% -9,9% -7,6% -19,8% 10,1% -7,6% -24,9% 26,2 4,4 5,5 4,3 NLMK NLMK LI USD 13,6 20,5 51% OW 8 151 -0,4% 0,4% -3,6% 7,9% -2,5% -3,6% 18,5% 12,9 10,4 6,2 5,6 Evraz EVR LN GBp 127,7 120,0 -6% N 2 824 -5,7% -13,0% -24,3% -32,7% 37,6% -24,3% -17,4% neg. neg. 5,0 4,3 Severstal SVST LI USD 10,7 13,5 26% OW 8 947 -0,4% -2,0% -11,6% -4,7% 42,1% -11,6% 17,4% 11,8 9,3 5,8 5,1 ММК MMK LI USD 3,5 4,7 36% OW 2 974 0,6% -0,3% -6,5% 11,4% 32,5% -6,5% 44,2% neg. neg. 4,9 4,3 Polyus Gold PGIL LN USD 2,8 3,2 17% N 8 429 0,1% 0,4% -4,1% -6,0% -0,1% -4,1% -2,3% 17,9 12,8 9,4 8,2 Polymetal POLY LN USD 8,4 9,31 10% N 3 564 0,9% -3,3% -3,7% -4,9% -3,6% -3,7% -6,9% 12,6 9,2 6,9 6,7 Nordgold NORD LI USD 3,2 u/r u/r 1 195 0,2% 0,5% 4,8% 20,2% 76,9% 4,8% 112,3% Raspadskaya RASP RX USD 0,7 u/r u/r 458 0,3% -1,6% -5,0% -4,9% 83,3% -5,0% 57,0% TMK TMKS LI USD 4,4 u/r u/r 1 091 2,8% 6,9% 5,4% 45,7% -54,4% 5,4% 89,7% Utilities Inter RAO IRAO RX RUB 1,21 1,50 24% OW 2 280 2,4% 2,5% -3,1% 30,0% 27,8% -3,1% 69,9% 12,9 5,2 2,8 2,8 RusHydro HYDR RX RUB 0,54 0,47 -13% N 3 768 1,9% -6,8% -8,0% 7,0% -20,5% -8,0% -0,2% 8,7 5,4 5,0 4,4 OGK-2 OGKB RM RUB 0,28 u/r u/r 558 2,3% -6,8% 5,3% 27,9% 23,9% 5,3% 74,1% E.ON Russia EONR RM RUB 2,97 u/r u/r 3 380 1,4% 5,7% -1,3% 2,4% 4,2% -1,3% 30,3% Enel Russia ENRU RX RUB 0,89 u/r u/r 568 -8,2% -8,9% -1,9% 12,5% -13,4% -1,9% 20,4% FGC FEES RX RUB 0,063 u/r u/r 1 450 -2,0% -4,2% -3,2% 3,3% 6,8% -3,2% 38,0% ROSSETI RSTI RX RUB 0,48 u/r u/r 1 395 0,0% -1,7% -9,2% -3,5% -12,4% -9,2% 15,6% ROSSETI pref RSTIP RX RUB 0,48 u/r u/r 18 -0,2% -4,0% -6,4% -5,7% 6,7% -6,4% -14,1% MOESK MSRS RX RUB 0,88 u/r u/r 769 0,6% -2,2% -1,7% -12,9% -28,9% -1,7% -30,0% MRSK Center MRKC RX RUB 0,26 u/r u/r 197 0,0% -2,3% -3,2% 11,9% 15,9% -3,2% 2,4% MRSK Center and Volga MRKP RX RUB 0,070 u/r u/r 142 -1,4% -1,0% -0,3% -1,7% -25,7% -0,3% -27,7% MRSK Volga MRKV RX RUB 0,024 u/r u/r 78 -1,6% -2,8% 0,2% 5,2% 30,3% 0,2% -13,3% MRSK Urals MRKU RX RUB 0,081 u/r u/r 127 -4,7% -3,7% 5,9% 23,6% 35,9% 5,9% 31,7% MRSK North-West MRKZ RX RUB 0,030 u/r u/r 51 -1,0% -10,8% -1,3% -0,7% 6,5% -1,3% 17,4% Lenenergo LSNG RX RUB 3,01 u/r u/r 90 0,5% -11,9% 31,2% 37,4% 9,9% 31,2% 72,0% Lenenergo pref LSNGP RX RUB 11,75 u/r u/r 20 -2,9% -8,6% 20,5% 17,5% -21,7% 20,5% 4,9% MRSK Siberia MRKS RX RUB 0,061 u/r u/r 105 -0,7% -0,3% -7,4% -8,8% -19,6% -7,4% -32,1% Kubanenergo KUBE RX RUB 43,00 u/r u/r 220 1,2% 0,7% -2,3% -5,3% -36,8% -2,3% 0,2% MRSK South MRKY RM RUB 0,032 u/r u/r 29 1,3% 0,3% -2,4% 0,9% -9,8% -2,4% 4,9% MRSK North Caucasus MRKK RX RUB 16,00 u/r u/r 45 -1,8% -0,6% -6,4% -3,3% -7,4% -6,4% 32,2% Telecommunications / Media Sistema SSA LI USD 8,8 9,0 2% OW 4 251 4,6% 9,0% 15,9% 19,1% -71,8% 15,9% 69,1% 4,3 9,9 3,0 4,8 Yandex YNDX US USD 15,8 19,2 22% N 5 110 -0,6% -5,7% -12,3% 2,3% -55,0% -12,3% -12,0% 16,6 26,2 11,9 14,1 MegaFon MFON LI USD 14,2 16,0 13% N 8 773 -2,1% -3,7% -7,8% -11,0% -55,5% -7,8% 2,7% 9,1 10,4 4,2 4,4 MTS MBT US USD 9,7 12,0 23% N 10 053 2,1% -3,6% -7,0% -1,2% -50,7% -7,0% 35,5% 10,8 8,5 4,1 4,2 VimpelCom Ltd VIP US USD 5,1 u/r u/r 8 959 -1,2% -5,5% -17,9% -2,1% -40,1% -17,9% 22,2% Mail.ru MAIL LI USD 21,2 22,0 4% UW 4 661 -1,5% -0,6% -7,5% 5,6% -40,6% -7,5% 29,9% 4,1 23,8 15,9 14,2 Rostelecom RTKM RX RUB 91,0 u/r u/r 4 384 1,8% 0,0% 12,4% 15,9% 7,5% 12,4% 4,6% Rostelecom pref RTKMP RX RUB 62,8 u/r u/r 275 -0,5% -0,5% 8,7% 11,0% 3,5% 8,7% 9,9% QIWI QIWI US USD 29,7 32,5 9% OW 1 743 0,4% 2,5% -1,7% 27,0% -25,5% -1,7% 47,2% 41,0 32,1 18,9 14,6 Transport Aeroflot AFLT RX RUB 39,2 43,0 10% UW 785 2,3% 3,3% -4,7% 19,8% -29,6% -4,7% 21,5% 3,3 2,1 3,2 2,5 NCSP NCSP LI USD 2,4 u/r u/r 616 0,0% 0,8% -9,4% 31,9% -51,9% -9,4% 20,6% TransContainer TRCN LI USD 4,5 u/r u/r 625 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 28,6% -21,1% 0,0% 2,3% Globaltrans GLTR LI USD 4,5 5,7 27% N 805 -2,1% -8,1% -21,4% -5,4% -60,6% -21,4% -10,8% 7,1 10,6 3,4 5,1 FESCO FESH RX RUB 3,2 u/r u/r 168 -1,6% -3,4% 8,6% 6,4% -7,6% 8,6% 12,1% Global Ports GLPR LI USD 4,7 u/r u/r 888 -18,0% -4,7% -20,1% 17,0% -55,5% -20,1% 89,4% Fertilizers Uralkali URKA LI USD 13,1 18,6 42% N 7 716 3,8% -6,1% -3,6% 0,5% -43,7% -3,6% 11,5% - 8,1 5,8 6,1 PhosAgro PHOR LI USD 13,1 14,6 11% OW 5 090 0,4% 4,0% -1,1% 13,9% 6,1% -1,1% 28,4% 9,0 8,5 6,4 6,1 Acron AKRN RX RUB 2270 1568 -31% N 1 661 0,4% 2,3% 2,4% 3,5% 86,8% 2,4% 26,2% 6,4 5,5 5,0 4,4 Consumer X5 Retail Group FIVE LI USD 17,3 u/r u/r 4 698 2,7% -1,7% -11,1% 16,9% -19,7% -11,1% 41,8% Magnit MGNT LI USD 56,5 u/r u/r 26 714 3,4% 6,5% 8,3% 13,0% -4,9% 8,3% 24,5% Dixy Group DIXY RX RUB 329,0 u/r u/r 741 0,0% -5,2% -12,5% -30,7% -19,7% -12,5% -8,5% O'Key OKEY LI USD 2,4 u/r u/r 640 -6,7% 0,4% -29,5% -37,7% -73,4% -29,5% -45,8% Financials P/E 14 P/E 15 P/BV 14 P/BV 15 Sberbank SBER RX RUB 70,6 82,1 16% OW 27 507 -1,15% -1,34% -3,95% 15,74% -16,28% -3,95% 28,60% 5,4 8,5 0,8 0,7 Sberbank pref SBERP RX RUB 49,4 50,5 2% OW 892 -0,6% 0,6% 2,4% 11,9% -29,7% 2,4% 31,1% VTB VTBR RX RUB 0,078 0,024 -69% UW 18 246 0,00% -2,52% -2,80% 31,09% 85,14% -2,80% 16,42% - - 1,3 1,4 FC Otkritie Bank OFCB RX RUB 1100 u/r u/r 2 856 -1,1% -2,1% 3,6% 1,1% 22,2% 3,6% -5,3% Bank St Petersburg BSPB RX RUB 39,1 31,8 -19% N 310 0,26% 1,56% -1,88% 22,96% 2,87% -1,88% 59,92% 3,6 9,0 0,3 0,3 Bank Vozrozhdenie VZRZ RX RUB 463 228 -51% UW 198 -0,9% 9,5% 9,7% 7,9% 14,9% 9,7% 12,7% 9,4 27,1 0,5 0,5 Bank Vozrozhdenie pref VZRZP RX RUB 220,0 91,0 -59% N 5 -4,14% 3,77% 22% 144% 99% 21,9% 212% Moscow Exchange MOEX RX RUB 69,6 99,6 43% OW 2 861 2,0% -2,2% -3,4% 4,4% 5,2% -3,4% 17,8% 9,9 8,9 1,7 1,6
OW – OVERWEIGHT UW – UNDERWEIGHT N – NEUTRAL u/r – under review
Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg
RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY
JUNE 29, 2015
4
Copyright © 2003-2015.
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
Research Department
MACROECONOMIC CALENDAR
DATE EVENT PERIOD TIME PREVIOUS
USA
29.06.2015 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY May 17:00 -
29.06.2015 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity June 17:30 -
EUROZONE
29.06.2015 Consumer Confidence June F 12:00 -
30.06.2015 Unemployment Rate May 12:00 -
30.06.2015 CPI estimate YoY June 12:00 -
USA
30.06.2015 S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA April 16:00 -
CHINA
01.07.2015 Manufacturing PMI June 04:00 50.2
01.07.2015 Non-manufacturing PMI June 04:00 53.2
EUROZONE
01.07.2015 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI June F 11:00 -
USA
01.07.2015 MBA Mortgage Applications June 26 14:00 -
01.07.2015 ADP Employment Change June 15:15 201K
01.07.2015 Markit US Manufacturing PMI June F 16:45 -
01.07.2015 Construction Spending MoM May 17:00 2.2%
01.07.2015 ISM Manufacturing June 17:00 52.8
EUROZONE
02.07.2015 ECB account of the monetary policy meeting - 14:30 -
USA
02.07.2015 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls June 15:30 280K
02.07.2015 Unemployment Rate June 15:30 5.5%
02.07.2015 Initial Jobless Claims June 27 15:30 -
02.07.2015 ISM New York June 16:45 54.0
02.07.2015 Factory Orders May 17:00 -0.4%
CHINA
03.07.2015 Markit China Services PMI June 04:45 53.5
EUROZONE
03.07.2015 Markit Eurozone Services PMI June F 11:00 -
03.07.2015 Retail Sales YoY May 12:00 2.2%
USA
06.07.2015 Markit US Services PMI June F 16:45 -
06.07.2015 ISM Non-manufacturing Composite June 17:00 55.7
07.07.2015 Trade Balance May 15:30 -$40.90B
08.07.2015 MBA Mortgage Applications July 3 14:00 -
08.07.2015 US Fed Releases Minutes from June 16-17 FOMC Meeting - 21:00 -
09.07.2015 Initial Jobless Claims July 4 15:30 -
CHINA
09.07.2015 CPI YoY June 04:30 1.2%
13.07.2015 Trade Balance June - $59.49B
13.07.2015 Exports YoY June - -2.5%
13.07.2015 Imports YoY June - -17.6%
EUROZONE
14.07.2015 Industrial Production WDA YoY May 12:00 0.8%
14.07.2015 ZEW Survey Expectations July 12:00 53.7
CHINA
15.07.2015 Retail Sales YoY June 05:00 10.1%
15.07.2015 Industrial Production YTD YoY June 05:00 -
15.07.2015 GDP YoY 2Q15 05:00 7.0%
Source: Bloomberg
RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY
JUNE 29, 2015
5
Copyright © 2003-2015.
Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)
Research Department
CORPORATE CALENDAR
DATE EVENT PERIOD
30.06.2015 MegaFon: AGM
30.06.2015 RusHydro: IFRS results 1Q15
June 2015 Enel Russia: AGM
June 2015 RusHydro: AGM
03.07.2015 Rostelecom: Dividend record date
07.07.2015 MTS: Dividend record date
13.07.2015 MegaFon: Dividend record date
15.07.2015 NLMK: operating results 2Q15
17.07.2015 Evraz: operating results 2Q15
21.07.2015 Alrosa: operating results 2Q15
23.07.2015 Severstal: IFRS results 2Q15
23.07.2015 RusHydro: operating results 2Q15
28.07.2015 E.ON Russia: RAS results 1H15
29.07.2015 Polymetal: operating results 2Q15
29.07.2015 Enel Russia: IFRS results 1H15
30.07.2015 RusHydro: RAS results 1H15
July 2015 RusHydro: Dividend record date
04.08.2015 Enel Russia: RAS results 1H15
06.08.2015 VimpelCom: IFRS results 2Q15
13.08.2015 E.ON Russia: operating results, IFRS results 1H15
17.08.2015 MTS: IFRS results 2Q15
19.08.2015 Rostelecom: IFRS results 2Q15
21.08.2015 Raspadskaya: IFRS results 1H15
27.08.2015 Evraz: IFRS results 1H15
28.08.2015 Alrosa: IFRS results 2Q15
28.08.2015 RusHydro: IFRS results 1H15
06.10.2015 Evraz: operating results 3Q15
10.10.2015 VimpelCom: Investor Day
15.10.2015 Raspadskaya: operating results 3Q15
21.10.2015 Alrosa: operating results 3Q15
22.10.2015 RusHydro: operating results 9M15
28.10.2015 E.ON Russia: RAS results 9M15
29.10.2015 Enel Russia: IFRS results 9M15
29.10.2015 RusHydro: RAS results 9M15
05.11.2015 Enel Russia: RAS results 9M15
06.11.2015 VimpelCom: IFRS results 3Q15
12.11.2015 E.ON Russia: IFRS results 9M15
25.11.2015 Alrosa: IFRS results 3Q15
15.12.2015 RusHydro: IFRS results 9M15
Source: Bloomberg
HQ: 16/1 Nametkina St., Moscow 117420, Russia. Office: 7 Koroviy val St.
Research Department
+7 (495) 983 18 00
EQUITY SALES
+7 (495) 988 23 75
EQUITY TRADING
+7 (495) 988 24 10
FIXED INCOME SALES
+7 (495) 983 18 80
FIXED INCOME TRADING
+7 (499) 271 91 04
Copyright © 2003-2015. Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company). All rights reserved
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