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First Section - Rubber4U - 15th November 2020

Vol. XII 009 15th NOVEMBER 2020

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The economic contraction in theJuly-September quarter of 2020-21 may also be lower, at 8.6%,compared to the 23.9%contraction in the lockdown-hit April-Junequarter. The National Statistical Officewill release the data for the secondquarter on 30th November 2020. TheIndian economy could turn the cornerand register positive growth earlier thanexpected, but the unrelenting pressureof inflation and a second global Covid-19 wave pose a major risk to growth,the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said inits monthly bulletin for November.

Covid-19 pandemic has had a far-reaching impact on businesses aroundthe world and consequentially amongstthe rubber industries as well. Almost, all

sectors across the globe reporteddecline in demand as containmentmeasures came into effect limitingeconomic activities and impacting

livelihoods. Domestic rubberindustry was hit hard by the onsetof the pandemic.

Covid-19 impacted the rubber industryin multiple ways. On one hand, therewas a supply disruption of raw materials.On the other hand, a delay in farmingoperations and latex collection furthercompounded the issue. Due to disruptionof global economic activities andrestrictions on imports, crucial inputssuch as carbon black and rubberchemicals were in short supply. Thedelay in farming activities also led toliquidity and working capital issues fora sector dominated by MSMEs whichdo not necessarily have robust businesscontinuity plans. They depend onregular cash flows to meet working

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capital requirements and pay salaries.Volatility in global markets furtherweakened the industry prospective.

If the last six months were a greatlearning period, three things need to bedone to boost business in the postCovid-19 era. For a start, industry needsto sort out supply chain issues byassessing the robustness and formingplans to ensure uninterrupted operationsin times of crisis. Inventory needs to bemanaged while production plans mayneed to be re-evaluated as per marketconditions. Organisations can also lookat alternative sources of raw materials(both domestic and imported) whileevaluating newer markets for export.Trade benefits, concessions andrestrictions for different countries shouldbe carefully evaluated. At home,companies should look at the best waysto save on taxes.

The second lesson was the need forliquidity management. A carefulevaluation of the liquidity positioncoupled with planning and prioritisationof expenditures and loans is critical. Aneffective risk forecasting approach is theneed of the hour.

The moratorium on loans relief hasended, organizations should carefullylook at managing their loan servicingobligations and work towards at leastreaching the pre-Covid-19 production

capabil i t ies. Lastly, the existingworkforces need to be marshalled well.Rubber product manufacturing is alabour intensive industry and has nearly6,000 MSMEs that collectively employaround 6 lakh people directly. Further7 lakh people are employed indirectly.Proper planning in workforcedeployment, reworking of workercompensation and benefits coupled witheffective management of Covid positivecases within the organisation are to becritically examined and redeployed to

counter the changed businessenvironment.

Additionally, certain resolutions can belooked at, including removal of Customsduty on import of natural rubber, anti-dumping duties on synthetic rubber,carbon black, rubber chemicals & otherkey inputs. The government can set upDevelopment Finance Institutions andincentivise wholly-owned subsidiaries ofIndian units which are establishedabroad by funding their stocks, provide

On 14th November 2020- At 20:08 pm CST

WTI CrWTI CrWTI CrWTI CrWTI Crude Oilude Oilude Oilude Oilude Oil

US$40.12

15 Oct 14 Nov

Prices(December Contract)



Trade Date: 13th November 2020(Prices in `. / kg)India

Month Open High Low CloseNovember 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 154.46December 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 155.78January 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 157.33February 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 158.90March 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 160.49April 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 162.09

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interest-free loans and tax holidays. Thegovernment can also consider extendinga grant of 20% in lieu of the income taxpaid over the last 5 years as to MSMEs.Given the changing international tradescenario, a lot of internationalcompanies are looking at India as thenew manufacturing base. Lower interestrates on capital loans towards newcapex during this period will help theindustry take bolder decisions and investin future capacity building.

Consumption of natural rubber isdominated by the automotive sectorwhich accounts for nearly 60% of allsales. Besides the automotive sector,mining, medical, aerospace,agriculture, construction, machinery,engineering and electrical appliancemanufacturing industries are majordrivers of the domestic rubber industry.Tyre companies are seeing gooddemand for tractor and two-wheelertyres. In 2019-20, India’s rubberproducts exports stood at $3,193.97

million. With the onset of the Covid-19,these numbers will change significantlyfor the current fiscal year.

Natural rubber prices slumped when carfactories closed in the early days of theCovid-19 pandemic, hitting demand fora material that is used in the productionof tyres. The slide in oil prices alsoknocked the price of synthetic rubber. Arebound in auto production in China andincreased demand for medical gloves hassent prices for rubber soaring, making itone of the best-performing commoditiesin the world in recent months. The pricesfor a variety of natural rubber used tomanufacture tyres have jumped almost50% from their 2020 low.

Recovery in demand, China marginallyraised its consumption outlook for 2020in view of earlier-than-expected recoveryin economy and acceleration in growth.Gains in the global market furthersupported prices in the domesticmarket. Prices of natural rubber rose in

key markets of Kerala on expectationsof a rise in demand from domestic tyremakers. However, sluggish demand fromdomestic stockists and expectations ofa rise in supply capped sharp gains inrubber prices in domestic markets.Demand from domestic stockists issubdued because of a recent surge inprices. The supply of rubber is likely torise given tapping activity is in full swingas October-December is the peakproduction season.

RBI said the Indian economy mayregister a positive growth in the October-December quarter after six months ofcontraction if the economic upturnsustains till the end of the year.

While speaking at the virtual ‘Electric MobilityConference 2020’, the Union Minister NitinGadkari said that the government is workingtowards making India a global automobilemanufacturing hub in the next five years. Thegovernment is already making policies to supportthe industry. The future is very bright and Indiahas the potential to become the largest ElectricVehicle (EV) market in the world as the governmentcontinues to push for EV adoption. e-Mobility isgoing to be the future mode of transport with greaterefficiency and less impact on the environment.

The minister underlined that the automobileindustry would be able to cater to a growingmarket with higher output as the Indianmanufacturers have the capability to makeefficient EVs that can not only create more jobsbut also provide opportunities for exports.

The demand for vehicles was already low inthe past two years. Adding to the woes, thecoronavirus pandemic further made a strongdent in the sales number. The minister urgedthe auto industry to cut prices of ElectricVehicles for increasing sales.

India to become automobile manufacturing hub



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India extendsIndia extendsIndia extendsIndia extendsIndia extendsanti-dumpinganti-dumpinganti-dumpinganti-dumpinganti-dumpingdutdutdutdutdutyyyyyIndia extended the anti-dumping duty onimports of carbon black used in rubberapplications from China and Russia till31st December 2020, the department ofrevenue said in a notification.

Notwithstanding anything contained inparagraph 2, the anti-dumping dutyimposed under this notification shallremain in force upto and inclusive of the31st December, 2020, unless revoked,superseded or amended earlier, therevenue department’s notification said,citing the November 2015 order it hadissued at that time.

The duty was first imposed in November2015 after the Directorate Genral of TradeRemedies (DGTR) had found that theimports were impairing local industry.The department added that thedesignated authority, in this case theDGTR, had sought for continuation of theanti-dumping duty after conducting areview of the same which was initiatedin May this year.

During a virtual event, SICCI-360°, conductedby the South India Chamber of Commerce andIndustries, the former Governor of the ReserveBank of India and former Chairman of EconomicAdvisory Council to the Prime Minister, CRangarajan recently declared that the economywill be back at pre-covid-19 pandemic levelsby the end of 2021-22 and that green shootsare already visible after multiple phases ofunlocking across the country. As you lift thelockdown, I expect the economic activity willpick up. There are already indications ofeconomy picking up in the form of GST (Goodsand Services Tax), electricity consumption,Rangarajan said. Therefore, the second halfof 2021, i.e., from September-March could seea pickup in economic activity.

However, he cautioned that the increase ineconomic activity in the second half of 2021-22will not be sufficient to compensate for the loss thatoccurred in the first half of this year. As you allremember, the deteriorating growth rate in the firstquarter was almost 23% which is a huge declinein output. Growth may be negative in the secondquarter as well but much less than the first quarter.

According to Rangarajan, if there is nosecond wave of coronavirus and if thespread of the virus is contained, there maybe positive signs in the Indian economy inthe third and fourth quarter. He predictsthere wil l be strong growth in 2021-22,which should take the economy back to pre-covid levels.

Consumer Price Index rises to 7.61% in October 2020 as compared to 7.27%in September 2020. Lower crude oil prices will help ease fuel inflation.

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The festive season boost, along with lowbase and pent-up demand, accelerateddomestic passenger vehicles’ sales inOctober on a y-o-y basis. Passengervehicle wholesale in India increased by14.19% to 3,10,294 units in Octoberagainst 2,71,737 units in the samemonth of 2019 as companies despatchedmore units to dealers to cater toenhanced demand in the festive season,according to Society of IndianAutomobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

According to the latest data by SIAM,two-wheeler sales also rose 16.88% to20,53,814 units, compared to 17,57,180units in October 2019. In October 2020,

motorcycle sales were at 13,82,749units, up by 23.8%, while scooter saleswere also up 1.79% at 5,90,507 units.

Three-wheeler sales declined by 60.91%to 26,187 units compared to 66,985units in October 2019. The month ofOctober saw continuity in sales growthtrajectory, drawing on from the previousmonth.

There were marked improvementswitnessed across certain segmentsdue to very good festive demand.October wholesale numbers have beengood on account of dealers preparingto serve demand for the upcoming

Diwali festival, which is in November.Three-wheelers saw a sl ightimprovement in sales, compared to thelast month, however, i t has sti l lregistered a de-growth, said RajeshMenon, director general of SIAM.

While Federation of Automobile DealersAssociations (FADA) had reported an8.8% dip in passenger vehicle retailsales in October at 2,49,860 units. FADAcollects vehicle registration data from1,257 out of the 1,464 regional transportoffices (RTOs). Total retail sales acrosscategories declined 23.99% to 14,13,549units, compared to 18,59,709 units inOctober 2019.

Domestic passengDomestic passengDomestic passengDomestic passengDomestic passenger ver ver ver ver vehicehicehicehicehicles sales uples sales uples sales uples sales uples sales upDomestic passengDomestic passengDomestic passengDomestic passengDomestic passenger ver ver ver ver vehicehicehicehicehicles sales uples sales uples sales uples sales uples sales up

The Competition Commission of India (CCI)approves transfer of 100% shareholding ofSinochem Group Company Limited (Sinochem)and China National Chemical Corporation Limited(ChemChina) to a new company wholly ownedby China State-owned Assets Supervision andAdministration (Central SASAC), under Section31(1) of the Competition Act, 2002. Both thecompanies are engaged in wide variety ofbusiness globally and is headquartered in China.

In India, Sinochem is, directly or indirectly,primarily engaged in the following businesses: (i)Sale of crude oil; (ii) Sale of natural rubber andrubber antioxidants; (iii) Sale of a variety ofchemicals, including agrochemicals (i.e. the saleof insecticides, herbicides, fungicide and othersuch products); and (iv) Sale of pharma and healthproducts.

In India, ChemChina is mainly engaged in thefollowing businesses: (i) Sale of chemical products(including methionine, carbon and siliconproducts); (ii) Sale of passenger car tyres, busand truck tyres; (iii) Sale of chemical equipment;and (iv) Sale of solar PV modules.

The new holding company is not incorporatedyet and accordingly, has no business activity.

CCI approves transfer ofshareholding

India is likely to impose anti-dumpingduty on Rubber Chemical PX-13imported from China, US and SouthKorea. The Directorate General of TradeRemedies recommended duty in therange of $81.76-1570/MT based on anapplication filed by NOCIL Ltd. RubberChemical PX-13, a key raw material usedin tyre and non-tyre rubber sector.

Having initiated and conducted theinvestigation into dumping, injury andcausal link in terms of the provisions laiddown under Anti-Dumping Rules, theAuthority is of the view that impositionof provisional duty is required to offsetdumping and injury, pending completion

of the investigation, DGTR said in anotification.

It said it considers it necessary andrecommends imposition of provisional anti-dumping duty on imports of subject goodsfrom the subject countries. DGTR, underthe commerce and industry ministryrecommends the duty but the call toimpose it is taken by the Finance Ministry.

The period of investigation for thepurpose of present investigation is 1stApril 2019 to 31st March 2020. Theinjury examination period has howeverbeen considered as the period fromFY17-FY20.

India may impose anti-dumpingduty on Rubber Chemical PX-13India may impose anti-dumpingduty on Rubber Chemical PX-13

Balk r ishna Indus t r ies L td . (BKT) hasrevea led i ts b iggest ever rad ia l ty re ,Earthmax SR-468, for off road equipmentfor monster trucks.

According to the company, the Earthmax SR-468 was scheduled for launch prior to theCovid-19 pandemic; the new 57 inch giant

product will be subject to rigorous testinguntil the spring of 2021, to ensure qualityand reliability. The Earthmax SR-468 tyreis equipped with an all-steel structure for atyre casing that has greater resistanceagainst damage; while its special treaddesign and tyre compound is constructed tolimit heat generated.

BKT rBKT rBKT rBKT rBKT reeeeevvvvveals its bigeals its bigeals its bigeals its bigeals its biggggggest rest rest rest rest radial tyradial tyradial tyradial tyradial tyreeeeeBKT rBKT rBKT rBKT rBKT reeeeevvvvveals its bigeals its bigeals its bigeals its bigeals its biggggggest rest rest rest rest radial tyradial tyradial tyradial tyradial tyreeeee



Company Name20 MICRONSAKZOINDIAAPCOTEX INDS.APOLLO TYRESAVT NATURALBALKRISHNA INDS.BASF INDIABATA INDIABIRLA TYRESCEAT LTD.DOLFIN RUBBERSEASTERN TREADSELGI EQUIPEMENTSGOODYEAR (I)GOVIND RUBBERGRP LTD.GULF PETROHARRISON MALAYALHIMADRI CHEMICALINDAG RUBBERJK TYRE INDS.KESORAM INDS.KHADIM INDIAM.M. RUBBERMAHALAXMI RUBTECHMODI RUBBERMRF LTD.NOCIL LTD.ORIENTAL CARBONPHILIP CARBONPIX TRANSMISSIONPTL LTD.RELAXO FOOTWARERELIANCE INDS.RISHIROOP RUBBERRUBFILA INTERNAT.SOMI CONVEYORTINNA RUBBERTTK HEALTHCARETVS SRICHAKRVAMSHI RUBBER LTD.YASHO INDUSTRIES

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02.11.20 09.11.20 14.11.2028.00 30.05 31.101962.05 2000.70 2001.30148.05 149.10 165.45141.35 157.50 164.8042.65 44.00 43.701336.95 1491.50 1581.951341.70 1495.30 1519.901308.20 1356.35 1355.5019.15 20.05 19.851105.50 1121.70 1130.50NA 39.20 NA35.00 33.60 33.90106.60 119.55 121.20784.90 818.90 822.102.40 2.25 1.90777.10 807.00 775.0033.80 33.65 43.6094.50 94.20 93.5045.65 46.65 46.7071.15 76.95 84.2566.30 71.85 77.6042.75 44.00 41.85106.60 110.85 112.1030.10 31.90 37.0033.20 31.35 36.0031.65 NA 33.6566185.05 69934.10 71841.45133.60 143.35 146.85773.15 785.65 790.75142.35 149.50 157.35144.25 152.95 199.9037.95 37.40 37.75664.80 700.60 738.401877.30 2050.30 2001.8039.95 46.70 51.1538.40 38.70 47.4520.20 20.00 NA15.70 NA NA424.95 456.00 486.151402.30 1435.65 1519.65NA 20.00 21.35152.00 153.00 152.95

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Industrial output eIndustrial output eIndustrial output eIndustrial output eIndustrial output expandsxpandsxpandsxpandsxpandsAccording to data released by the Ministry of Statistics andProgramme Implementation, India’s factory output rose aftersix months of decline in September, led by higher powergeneration and mining activity. The Index of IndustrialProduction grew 0.2% y-o-y in September compared with arevised contraction of 7.36% in August. For the first half of thefinancial year, IIP has contracted by 21.1% over the sameperiod last year.

Manufacturing sector continued to see contraction inSeptember, albeit at a slower pace. Fifteen of the 23 industrygroups in manufacturing saw a contraction in output inSeptember. However, mining output and electricity generationactivity grew.

Glove factory to come up at MattannurState Minister for Industries E.P. Jayarajan laid thefoundation stone for the Rubber Glove Factory of KannurNatural Rubber Products Ltd. at Mattannur Kerala IndustrialInfrastructure Development (KINFRA) Corporation Park. Theproject cost is ̀ .25 crore, and the construction of the factorywill begin soon.


interNATIONALinterNATIONALUpdate4UUpdate4UUpdate4UUpdate4UUpdate4UUpdateUpdateUpdateUpdateUpdate44444UUUUU

Currency INR/1Unit INR/1Unit

Chinese (Yuan) 11.09 11.26Europe (Euro) 86.55 88.03Indonesian (Rupiah) 0.0050 0.0052Japanese (Yen) 0.71 0.71Malaysian (Ringgit) 17.87 18.04Singapore (Dollar) 54.39 55.23Sri Lanka (Rupee) 0.40 0.39Taiwan (Dollar) 2.59 2.61Thailand (Baht) 2.38 2.46US (Dollar) 74.33 74.49Vietnam (Dong) 0.0032 0.0032

On 2nd Nov On 14th Nov

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The outbreak not only awakenedpeople to protection againstinfections, but it also ledbusinesses to consider healthcarein their offerings, as consumerbehaviours change in the wake ofthe global pandemic. Thepandemic is changing manybusinesses and if don’t adjust with thechanging scenario; businesses maycome to an end. The pandemic is drivingdemand for gloves in the healthcareindustry worldwide and, from anentrepreneurship angle; this is the righttime to be a key player selling gloves inthis bustling atmosphere.

The gloves are not only necessaryequipment for doctors and nurses, butthey are an important avenue in helpingimprove the living standard of Thaifarmers, who can earn more revenue from

selling rubber latex to glovemanufacturers and also helping ruraleconomies as it is expected to bolster

rubber prices and ensuresustainable growth of rubberbusinesses in the long term.

Usually Thailand exports rubberlatex to neighbouring countries,especially Malaysia, ascommodity products, but

agricultural officials want to developthem into value-added products andstandard medical gloves can be one ofthem. Aiming to export gloves to theUS, European countries, India andBrazil will be a big opportunity, as theseregions are hotbeds for the highlycontagious virus.

The Malaysian Rubber GloveManufacturers Association estimatedglobal demand for rubber gloves willreach 300 billion pieces this year, withannual growth of 12%. Malaysia, the

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world’s largest rubber glove producer,contributes nearly 63% of globalsupply. It has revised its estimatedsupply to 220 billion pieces in 2020amid current scenario, which is muchhigher than previously estimatednumbers of 188 billion pieces.

Rubber prices have fallen since2017, largely due to oversupply fromrubber producing countries. Thesluggish economy later cut demandf rom the auto indust ry, fur therimpac t ing rubber p roducers .Thailand has the capacity to produce

around 10 million tonnes of rubberlatex a year. It should increase itsglobal market share of rubber glovesbecause it has plenty of rubber latexsuppl ied by rubber plantat ions.Thailand holds 13-14% of the globalrubber glove market. The rubberg love indus t ry in Tha i land i sexpected to use around 3 milliontonnes of latex a year.

Global rubber price is expected to seean upward trend in the second half of2021 and may hit US$2.45 (US$1=RM4.13) per kg as early as 2022.

While addressing at the Global RubberConference (GRC) held via a hybridformat, ALA Advisors Pte Ltd chiefInvestment Officer Dar Wong said therubber price was likely to fall again infirst half of 2021 and then make a ‘V-shaped’ recovery after mid-2021. Fromnow until January next year, we areexpecting the rubber price will movesideways between US$1.30 andUS$1.70 per kg. When the marketbreaks out at US$1.70 per kg, therubber price will start to climb up. If therubber price starts to recover startingnext year, it will go like a waveform,eventually it will hit the high between2022 to early 2024. I believe it will hit anew high than what we saw in 2011. Aweaker US dollar tends to boost all

dollar-denominated commodities andwhen US dollar recedes in boom-bustcycle, the rubber price will recover oreven reach a new high.

He projected the rubber priceto gradually increase when the new USPresident draws up a new budget tofight economic slowdown in March orApril 2021.

R. B. Premadasa, secretary general ofAssociation of Natural Rubber ProducingCountries (ANRPC) said the globalrubber production was expected towitness further capacity addition until2023 and stagnate thereafter. If pricesturn attractive coinciding with thestagnation of mature areas between 2023and 2024, farmers are expected to adoptshort-term measures to maximise theyield from existing trees. In that case,average yield from existing mature treescan improve in the next one year. The

market is expected to feel tight supplystarting from 2024 or 2025 even if thedemand increases at a normal growth.While global rubber production for thisyear is projected to drop 6.8% to 12.90million tonnes from 13.84 million tonneslast year, while rubber consumption willfall 7.3% to 12.76 million tonnes from13.77 million tonnes.

Global rGlobal rGlobal rGlobal rGlobal rubububububber price to riseber price to riseber price to riseber price to riseber price to riseGlobal rGlobal rGlobal rGlobal rGlobal rubububububber price to riseber price to riseber price to riseber price to riseber price to rise

Global Footwear Sole MaterialMarket is expected to rise from itsinitial estimated value of US$16.21billion in 2018 to an estimated value

of US$24.52 billion by 2026,registering a CAGR of 5.31% in the

forecast period of 2019-2026.

Elastomeric foam market isexpected to grow at a rate of6.4% for the forecast period of

2020 to 2027.



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Malaysian Ministry of PlantationIndustries and Commodities (MPIC),through the Malaysian Rubber Council(MRC), is always drafting andimplementing short, medium and long-term plans to maintain Malaysia’s globalleadership in the production of rubbergloves.

During the question and answer sessionin the Dewan Rakyat (lower house ofParliament), Minister Dr MohdKhairuddin Aman Razali said that underthe short and medium term plans, MRCwill continue to carry out promotionalactivities overseas, such as participatingin international trade expositionstogether with industry players, organisetrade missions and educationalseminars, business matching andadvertising in international media. Thesepromotional activities not only includeleading rubber glove markets such asthe United States and Europe but alsocover most populous countries with highpotentials like China, India, Indonesia,Vietnam, Brazil and Russia. He was

replying to a question from Wong Chen(PH-Subang) who wanted to know aboutthe policies planned by the ministry tostrengthen Malaysia’s global leadershipin rubber glove production. Through thelong-term plan, the ministry via MRC willfocus on boosting investment activitiesby industry players and empower thedownstream rubber industry to improvethe competitiveness and value of rubberglove exports from Malaysia.

The minister also said that an industryrelations fund was set up to promotecooperation between researchers andindustry players to boost research anddevelopment and innovation in the rubberdownstream sector. In addition, at leastfive existing glove companies will expandtheir respective capacities. The ministryalso encourages investment in newrubber glove factories in cooperationwith the state government.

MPIC drafts MPIC drafts MPIC drafts MPIC drafts MPIC drafts plans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leadeadeadeadeadershirshirshirshirshipppppMPIC drafts MPIC drafts MPIC drafts MPIC drafts MPIC drafts plans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leplans to keep Malaysia’s leadeadeadeadeadershirshirshirshirshippppp

India’s first Tyre ParkWest Bengal will soon feature India’s first TyrePark, where artworks made from scrap anddefective parts will be on display, said a stateminister. Asserting that it is a unique concept,and not found anywhere in the country, theofficial said the idea behind the park is ‘wastecan be converted into art’.

No scrap material can be labelled as waste, itcan be reused and converted into art form.Scrap tyres lying as waste in various busdepots; have been reworked and convertedto colourful shapes by the in-house team ofWest Bengal Transport Corporation (WBTC).The Tyre Park, which wi l l come up atEsplanade area, would have a small cafewhere people can sit, relax and enjoy thecraftsmanship made from tyres. The WBTCwill launch this Tyre Park soon, said RajanvirKapur, managing director of WBTC.



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At the outset, one must note that it mightbe naive to view either a Trump or a Bidenregime as unilaterally better or worse forIndia. Rather, both have pros and cons,and with varying implications over theimmediate term vis-a-vis a longerhorizon. Also, a Republican-dominatedSenate may temper certain policies thatBiden or the Democratic party might liketo pursue.

As the new President looks set to takecharge in early 2021, the expectation offresh stimulus targeted at supporting alarge spectrum of US households andsmall businesses gets stronger. On theother hand, Biden is expected topartially undo the large tax cut thatPresident Trump had delivered, partly ina bid to generate resources for thebroader stimulus plan.

While global recovery may offer animmediate boost for var iouscommodi t ies and commodi tyexporting economies. The Bidenregime is likely to accord greater

focus on long-term cl imate andenvironmental issues potentiallysupporting green energy initiatives,and a more restrictive policy biasagainst fossi l fuel . A st rongerdiplomatic focus of the Biden-led USmay bring about broader internationalsupport on such issues, resulting ina stable and somewhat downwardlyanchored oil price trend compared towhat could have been the case undera second term for President Trump.

India’s information technology industrymight be a key direct beneficiary of apossible easing of immigration norms,while likely higher US corporate taxesmight be a headwind for near-termtechnology spending in research anddevelopments along with potentiallystricter regulatory oversight.

As the new regime starts, on the tradenegotiations front, India would like to beincluded in the US’ ‘Generalized Systemof Preference’. Also, issues such asmarket access in case of agricultural

commodities, tariffs on India’s variousmetal exports, flexibility of pricing ofmedical devices might emerge as someof the priorities in near future.

Despite heightened COVID-19 relateduncertainties during 2020, the Indianrupee (INR) strengthened reflectingsurpluses on both current and capitalaccounts of the balance of payments(BoP), while the RBI’s forex buyinglimited INR gains. One expects the RBIto continue modulating its forexpurchases in a way to ensure largelyrange-bound INR movements in thecoming months.

Global trade tensions look set to de-escalate and ‘de-globalisation’concerns will likely abate meaningfully.One expects emerging marketeconomies to benefit. Overall, financialmarkets in India seem to be broadly ona decent footing as the economy isgradually recovering from the Covid-19blow. Indian markets seem to beentering an interesting phase.

Malaysian natural rubber productionincreased by 3.7% in September 2020to 46,187 tonnes compared to 44,543tonnes production in August 2020. Whilenatural rubber production declined25.2% when compared to September2019, said the Statistics Department inits Monthly Rubber Statistics.

The domestic consumption of natural

rubber declined 2.9% in September 2020compared to 45,207 tonnes in previousmonth. Rubber glove manufacturers werethe main consumers, accounting for34,016 tonnes or 75.2% of the totaldomestic consumption.

Malaysia’s natural rubber exports stoodat 48,720 tonnes in September 2020, anincrease of 14.2% against 42,658 tonnes

in August 2020. China remains as themain destination for natural rubberexports, with a share of 46% of totalexports in September 2020 followed byGermany (13.2%), Iran (3.8%), Finland(3.3%) and Brazil (3.1%).

Natural rubber stocks rose 9.3% inSeptember to 255,140 tonnes comparedto 233,492 tonnes in August 2020.

Natural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increasedNatural rubber output increased

BidenBidenBidenBidenBiden’’’’’s economic policies ars economic policies ars economic policies ars economic policies ars economic policies are dife dife dife dife difffffferererererentententententBidenBidenBidenBidenBiden’’’’’s economic policies ars economic policies ars economic policies ars economic policies ars economic policies are dife dife dife dife difffffferererererententententent



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The US Secretary of Commerce, WilburRoss, issued an affirmative preliminarycountervailing duty (CVD) determinationfor passenger vehicle tyres and lighttruck tyres from Vietnam. TheCommerce Department preliminarilydetermined that exporters and producersfrom Vietnam received counter availablesubsidies with rates ranging from 6.23%to 10.08%. Among the subsidies

preliminarily countervailed is Vietnam’sundervalued currency – making this thefirst time that Commerce has ever madean affirmative CVD determinationregarding a foreign currency with aunitary exchange rate.

Fol lowing this decision,the Department of Commerce willinstruct U.S. Customs and BorderProtection to collect cash depositsfrom importers of passenger tyres fromVietnam, based on the preliminaryrates noted above.

The Department of Commerce plansto announce its final determination inthis case on or about 16th March2021 but cautioned that this deadline

may be extended. If Commerce makes an affirmative finaldetermination, the U.S. InternationalTrade Commission (ITC) will bescheduled to make its final injurydetermination on or about 30th April2021. If the Department of Commercemakes an affirmative final determinationin this investigation and the ITC makesan affirmative final injury determination,then the Department of Commerce willissue a CVD order, but if the Departmentof Commerce makes a negative finaldetermination of counter availablesubsidization or the ITC makes anegative final determination of injury, theinvestigation will be terminated and noorder will be issued.

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Thailand aims toproduce 4.9million tonnesThailand is expected to produce some4.9 million tonnes of natural rubberthroughout this year. Of the totalnatural rubber production projected,some 4.18 million tonnes are boundfor export to world markets. Anestimated US$11.2 billion in value ofrubber export is expected throughoutthis year, said Nakorn Tangavirapat,Governor of Rubber Authority ofThailand (RAOT).

Tangavirapat said the rubber prices atdomestic markets may rise up to 80 baht(about US$2.6) per kg by the end of thisyear due to China’s increasedmanufacturing of automobile tyres, risingexternal demands for latex gloves in theface of the global pandemic and thereduced volumes of rubber production inIndonesia and Vietnam.

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DeDeDeDeDept ofpt ofpt ofpt ofpt of Commer Commer Commer Commer Commerce makce makce makce makce makes pres pres pres pres preliminareliminareliminareliminareliminary detery detery detery detery determinaminaminaminaminationtiontiontiontionfffffor duties on tyror duties on tyror duties on tyror duties on tyror duties on tyre impore impore impore impore imports frts frts frts frts from om om om om VVVVVietnamietnamietnamietnamietnam



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The prices of latex and rubber productshave plummeted following theannouncement of a lockdown in Europeto prevent Covid-19 from spreading. Thesituation has taken an unusual turn, asjust last month there had been concernsthat there would be a shortage of rubber,which had driven up the price. Thelockdown has resulted in carmanufacturers postponing their import oflatex as they fear they will not be ableto sell vehicles in the coming months.The plummeting prices have put not onlyfarmers but also processing factories ina difficult situation. These factoriesstocked up latex when the price washigh and now face the risk of loss dueto decreased demand, said Chaiphot

Commerceplaces importduties on ESBRThe South Korean exporters dumpedemulsion-styrene-butadiene rubber in theU.S. from September 2018 to August2019, the U.S. Department of Commerceruled. The decision means thecompanies now are subject to importduties of 44.3%.

The Enforcement and ComplianceInternational Trade Administration in thecommerce department issued a finalruling in the case after coming out withpreliminary findings. A total of sevenSouth Korean companies are impactedby the ruling, including LG Chem Ltd.,Daewoo International Corp., HyundaiGlovis Co., Kukje Trading Corp., KumhoPetrochemical Co. Ltd., SungsanInternational Co. Ltd. and WEInternational Co. Ltd.

The Commerce officials determined thatthere was a dumping margin of 44.3%during the period in question. Thismeans all the companies will be requiredprovide a cash deposit of 44.3%, equalto the dumping margin established in thefinal results, on imports of the material.The following cash deposit requirementswill be effective for all shipments of ESBrubber from Korea entered, or withdrawnfrom warehouse, for consumption on orafter the publication date of the finalresults of this administrative review,according to a notice in the FederalRegister.

This is the second time Commerce haslevied import duties on the material beingimported from South Korea.

Reungwarunwattana, president of ThaiLatex Association.

The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RTA)reported that the price of third-grade smokedrubber sheet was Bt77.72 per kg, about30% higher than the guaranteed price ofBt60, while the price of latex was Bt68.5per kg, about 20% higher than theguaranteed Bt57. RTA estimated, rubberprices could soon reach Bt100 per kg, asmany rubber producing nations were reelingunder floods, which had disrupted supplies.

Thailand also reported around 10% lower-than-normal rubber output due tofrequent rains, which has preventedfarmers from harvesting latex.

Fall in price a blow to Thai farmers, factoriesFall in price a blow to Thai farmers, factories

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China’s butadiene (BD) prices have beenrising after the China’s National Day holiday,hitting a new high this year due to tight spotsupply and improved downstream demand.China’s synthetic rubber prices have surgedsince the beginning of October, helped by apost-lockdown economic recovery.

Since early October, styrene butadienerubber (SBR) and polybutadiene rubber(PBR) producers ra ised the ‘ex-works

prices’ five-fold, to $224-$269 per tonne.By 21st October, market prices of emulsionstyrene butadiene rubber closed at $1660,up 46% compared to 2020’s lowest pricesand up around 6% y-o-y, according areport by consulting firm Sublime ChinaInformation Co.

Some synthetic rubber producers announcedthat they will shut plants or cut run rates toresist surging feedstock prices.

Synthetic rubber prices see sharp riseSynthetic rubber prices see sharp rise



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The United Arab Emirates energyminister said Organization of PetroleumExporting Countries (OPEC)+ oilproducers will stick to their plans to taperoil production cuts from January.

OPEC and others including Russia havebeen reducing output since January 2017in a bid to balance the market, supportprices and reduce inventories. They arecurrently curbing production by 7.7million barrels per day, down from 9.7million bpd.

OPEC+ is due to taper their productioncuts by 2 million bpd in January.

A slow global economy recovery from thepandemic could push a full rebound inenergy demand out to 2025. There havebeen signs of a recovery in oil demandas countries lift Covid-19 restrictions,noting China was back to almost 90%to its pre-pandemic levels.

Oil futures settled sharply higher on theback of improved demand outlooks

following reports of a breakthrough inCovid-19 vaccine research. Oil pricesmay go up to $50 per barrel in sixmonths and crude stocks fall to ‘normal’in the 2021 third quarter if the OPEC+coalition delays plans to add crude tothe market and the demand outlookimproves. The election of Joe Biden asUS president will have an impact on theoil market and prices.

UUUUUAE saAE saAE saAE saAE says OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsUUUUUAE saAE saAE saAE saAE says OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cutsys OPEC+ plans to ease oil cuts

Top Glove invests$2.4 billionTop Glove Corp Bhd., world’s largestrubber glove manufacturer plans to boostits annual production capacity to over 100billion pieces of gloves by August 2021.The Malaysian company is investingRM10 billion ($2.42 billion) on capitalexpenditure over the next five financialyears. Top Glove expects with thisinvestment, capacity will increase to 105billion pieces of gloves in FY21 beforerising further to 121 billion pieces in FY22.

The company currently has an annualproduction capacity of 85.5 billionpieces and is looking to meet surgingdemand for the personal protectiveequipment triggered by the globalcoronavirus pandemic. The RM10 billioncapex allocations will be spenton establishing new capacity, theenhancement of existing manufacturingfacilities, Industry 4.0 initiatives, a gammasterilization plant, and land bank for futureexpansion, IT upgrades and workers’ facilities.

Since in response to soaring glovedemand, company’s 30% of productioncapacity has been allocated for spot gloveorders, according to Top Glove.


14Statistics-Update4U

Rubber 2020 2019

Production

Natural Rubber (NR)Ribbed Smoked Sheet 53740 79490Solid Block Rubber 15850 26050Latex Concentrates (drc) 10150 14000Others 2260 3460Total 82000 123000

Synthetic Rubber (SR)Styrene Butadiene 40100 66550Poly Butadiene(BR) 32490 32316Others 1725 1600Total 74315 100466Total NR & SR 156315 223466

Consumption*Natural Rubber (NR)Ribbed Smoked Sheet 63985 126925Solid Block Rubber 63425 140785Latex Concentrates (drc) 10930 20320Others 3120 6590Total 141460 294620

Synthetic Rubber (SR)Styrene Butadiene (SBR) 43940 91915Poly Butadiene(BR) 22255 47460Others 13445 28675Total 79640 168050

Total NR & SR 221100 462670*: indigenous and imported

Reclaimed Rubber (RR)Production @ 20300 34055Consumption 20335 34490Stock with Manufacturers 14170 12870(End of June)@: indigenous purchase by manufacturers

Import / ExportImport (p)Natural Rubber 80533 106632Synthetic Rubber 45363 81544Total NR & SR 125896 188176

Export (p)Natural Rubber 1433 2026p:provisional

(Metric Tonnes)

(Source: Rubber Board)

RUBBER POSITIONRUBBER POSITIONDuring April - June

I N D I A N

(In Lakh `.)

Export & Import of Rubber & Articlesthereof Under Chapter 40

(Source: Dept of Commerce)

HS Code Commodity Export Import4001 NATURAL RUBBER BALATA GUTTAPERCHA

ETC & SMLR NATURAL GUMS INPRMRY FORMS/IN PLTS SHTS/STRP 2,370.02 197,405.46

4002 SYNTHETIC RUBBER & FACTICE DERIVED FORMOILS, IN PRIMARY FORMS OR IN PLATES,SHEETS OR STRIP; MIXTURES OF ANY PRO 41,089.47 216,510.02

4003 RECLAIMED RUBBER IN PRIMARY FORMSOR IN PLATES, SHEETS OR STRIP 17,149.02 197.32

4004 WASTE, PARINGS AND SCRAP OF RUBBER(OTHER THAN HARD RUBBER) & POWDERS &GRANULES OBTAINED THEREFROM 297.91 4,525.48

4005 COMPDED RUBBER UNVULCNSD INPRMRY FORMS/IN PLATES SHEETS/STRIP 9,510.95 43,773.74

4006 OTHER FORMS (FOR EXAMPLE, RODS, TUBES& PROFILE SHAPES) & ARTICLES (FOREXAMPLE, DISCS & RINGS), OFUNVULCANISED RUBBER 1,351.85 536.31

4007 VULCANISED RUBBER THREAD & CORD 5,044.06 1,697.824008 PLATS,SHTS,STRP,RODS & PROFILE SHAPES

OF VULCNSD RUBBER OTHR THN HARD RUBBER 32,253.65 7,532.214009 TUBES, PIPES AND HOSES, OF VULCANISED

RUBBER OTHER THAN HARD RUBBER, WITHOR WITHOUT THEIR FITTINGS (FOR EXAMPLE, 40,785.22 39,606.34

4010 CNVYR TRNSMSSN BLTS/BLTNGOF VULCNSD RUBBER 41,733.68 24,510.53

4011 NEW PNEUMATIC TYRES, OF RUBBER 586,056.19 62,311.084012 RETREADED OR USED PNEUMATIC TYRES OF

RUBBER, SOLID OR CUSHION TYRES,TYRE TREADS & TYRE FLAPS, OF RUBBER 13,892.11 2,159.27

4013 INNER TUBES, OF RUBBER 22,347.89 508.284014 HYGNC/PHRMCTL ARTCLS (INCL TEATS) OF

VALCNSD RUBBER OTHER THAN HARD RUBBERWTH/WITHOUT FITTINGS OF HARD RUBBER 21,314.88 6,945.59

4015 ARTCL OF APARL AND CLOTHINGACCESSORIES (INCL. GLOVES, MITTENS& MITTS) FOR ALL PURPOSE OFVULCANISED RUBBER NOT HARD 29,185.31 76,467.47

4016 OTHER ARTICLES OF VULCANISEDRUBBER OTHER THAN HARD RUBBER 129,056.95 163,904.93

4017 HARD RUBBER (FOR EXAMPLE, EBONITE)IN ALL FORMS, INCLUDING WASTE & SCRAP;ARTICLES OF HARD RUBBER 426.50 1,351.92

Total 993,865.67 849,943.77

During April-September 2020


15EVENTS4U

Rubber4U, published by Caprint, exercise due care and caution in collecting the news / data before publication. In spite of this if any omission, inaccuracy or error occurwith regard to the news / data contained in this bulletin, Rubber4U / Caprint will not be held responsible or liabale.

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Day Session As of 13th October 2020

Trade Date: 13th October 2020Month Open High Low Last Change% Volume SettlementNovember 2020 260.0 266.0 260.0 266.0 +13.1 12 266.0December 2020 248.2 248.2 237.0 247.6 +6.6 32 247.6January 2021 235.3 239.9 229.0 239.0 +9.4 99 239.0February 2021 233.5 236.5 226.1 236.2 +5.5 79 236.5March 2021 234.5 236.4 225.4 234.7 +3.2 791 234.7April 2021 235.2 236.7 225.7 235.6 +3.1 3,849 235.6

RSS3 Rubber

Europe Rubber & Latex Expo 202023 – 24 November 2020At Budapest,Hungary.

ACMA Automechanika25 - 28 February 2021At New Delhi, India.

TyreXpo Asia 202117 - 19 March 2021At Marina Bay Sands, Singapore.

GRTE 202117 - 19 March 2021At BITEC, Bangkok, Thailand.

INAPA 202124 - 26 March 2021At JIExpo Kemayoran,Jakarta, Indonesia.

Tyre & Rubber Indonesia24 - 26 March 2021At JIExpo Kemayoran,Jakarta, Indonesia.

ChinaPlas 202113 - 16 April 2021At Shenzhen WE&C Center,PR China.

ChemExpo India 202120 - 21 April 2021At Bombay Exhibition Centre,Goregaon, Mumbai, India.

Tire Cologne18 - 20 May 2021At Cologne, Germany.

Rubber & Tyre Vietnam 202116 – 18 June 2021At Saigon Exhn. & Convn. Center,Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

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