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Modelling the Dynamics of HIV/AIDS Epidemics

in a Heterosexual Transmission; focus on

Nigerian Situation By

AKPA, ONOJA MATTHEWAnd

OYEJOLA, BENJAMINE AGBOOLA

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Introduction: A clear understanding of the dynamics as

well as the trajectory of the epidemic of any infectious disease is critical to its management and policy formulation that will set a premise for further action regarding the epidemic.

Substantive works have been published on the epidemic modeling of certain infectious diseases in time and places without much addressing the situations in Nigeria.

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Some Basic Assumptions: The AIDS compartment in each group represent a state where the

infected person manifest overt symptoms of the disease and at such a stage, he/she can no longer contribute to HIV infection, as no body sexually involved with an individual that is obviously AIDS.

Infected individuals (who have not developed AIDS) and the susceptible are only distinguishable in principle; in act, those infected in this definition have the same behavioral changes as the susceptible and are involved in sexual activities as the susceptible.

Immigration of both the infected and the susceptible are possible at a constant rate, and are dependent on the groups. See table 2 for details.

A Female sex worker may become married if and only if she first becomes an unmarried single.

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Assumptions Continues: Natural death occurs in every compartments of the

group, except in an individual that is AIDS (where for the sake of our model), any death of the AIDS individual was attributable to AIDS.

There is a strong heterosexual network between members of the different groups, safe with an AIDS individual.

Immigration of the AIDS as well as marriage with the AIDS individuals is not possible.

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The Transmission Dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria:

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