russia and nato a new chapter?
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Russia and NATO A New Chapter?. Presented by: Harry Bethke & Max Harrington November 16, 2010 Presented for: State Dept. Policy Planning Staff. How could this happen?!?. A history of ad-hoc cooperation. June 24, 2010: A successful “reset” sealed with burgers and fries. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Russia and NATOA New Chapter?
Presented by: Harry Bethke &
Max Harrington
November 16, 2010
Presented for:State Dept. Policy
Planning Staff
1
How could this happen?!?A history of ad-hoc cooperation
1991: North-Atlantic Cooperation Council
1997: Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council
2010: Medvedev signals that he is willing to cooperate on ABM shield 2
June 24, 2010:
A successful “reset” sealed with burgers and fries
Why this should happen: the U.S. perspective
Of the top 6 importers of Russian crude; 5 are NATO members
› Russia uses natural resources in line with its foreign policy goals
Russia will provide 1/3 of China’s natural gas imports beginning in 2015
› Russia signaling Europe that they are not the only game in town
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Why this should happen: the U.S. perspective, continued
Gas isn’t the only thing China is buying from Russia› In 2005 over 50% of
arms exports from Russia went to China
› From 2005-2009 China was Russia’s third largest importer of arms
The Point: China is getting stronger
Democracy!› Pevehouse (2002)
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India: 3.22 Billion Algeria: 2.4
BillionChina: 1.65 Billion Malasi
a875 Million
Chief importers of Russian arms transfers 2005 – 2009Sales in U.S. dollars
Why this should happen: the Russian perspective
Russia needs a friend› Multiple security
challenges of its own: Demographic Economic Narcotic
Military modernization Reduced need to
posture NATO will cease to be
the anti-Russia club5
China: 680,492,931
Russia’s Military
Expenditures:
$82 Billion(2009, PPP)
Russia’s Military
Expenditures:
$82 Billion(2009, PPP)
Russia: 70,744,194
Manpower available for Military Service
To Recap:
Expand NATO to include Russia WHY?
› It’s good for Russia Provides a partner for Russia’s security Repurposes NATO; no longer the anti-Russia club Provides avenue for military transformation Permits more direct dialogue with the west
› It’s good for the U.S. New partner in NATO operations Useful partner in balancing PRC influence Can influence the flow of Russian arms and energy Fosters democratic growth in Russia
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