russia investment briefing 05 october 2015 15.15 – 16.00
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Russian Real Estate Investment MarketTRANSCRIPT
Russia Investment Briefing
05 October 2015 15.15 – 16.00
Russia Investment Briefing
WelcomePropertyEU, our expert speakers and
Our hosts Moscow City
Russian Real Estate Investment Market
The prospects for economic growth
4
Experts forecast 1-2 years of recession
Source: Colliers International, Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, IMF, Bloomberg, Rosstat, Sberbank CIB, Morgan Stanley
Real GDP growth, % Ruble was not the only currency that came under pressure
(change in exchange rates during 24.09.2014-24.09.2015)
Brazilian realRussian rouble
Belarussian roubleUkranian hryvnia
Kazakh tengeTurkish lira
Norwegian croneMaxican peso
South African randIndonesian rupiah
Canadian dollarPolish zloty
Hungarian forintEuro
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
-43%-43%
-40%-40%
-33%-27%
-24%-23%
-20%-19%
-17%-13%-13%-12%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
F20
16F
2017
F-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.08.2 8.5
5.2
-7.8
4.5 4.33.4
1.30.6
-2.5
3.1 2.7
GDP growth, %Ministry of Economic Development, basic forecastMinistry of Economic Development, moderately positive forecastIMFSberbank CIBMorgan Stanley
Basic forecast of Ministry of Economic Development of Russsia assumes that Urals oil
price stabilizes at USD 65 per barrel in 2016-2017, while the exchange rate stabilizes at 55 RUB/USD.
Q1 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q3 201
5
Q1 201
6
Q3 201
6
Q1 201
7
Q3 201
7
7% 6%8%
10%
17%
15%
15.8%
11.9%
7.3% 6.3%
CPI growth, year-on-year, and MinEconom forecast
Real estate investment volumes
5
The investment market size declined more than two times
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
2.8
4.6
2.02.9
6.05.2 4.9
2.6 2.2
3.9
5.0
3.2
4.9
8.5 8.88.2
3.63.0
Investment volume in Q1-Q3 Investment volume in Q4 Investment volumes for the full year
in USD bn
Source: Colliers International
Capital originRussians, with 72% share, are dominating on the investment market now
5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
1,070.9 1,604.72,433.6
3,915.14,969.3
7,240.5
4,960.7
2,642.41,599.5
2,846.1
3,454.2808.9
984.0
3,529.6
1,531.3
3,195.0
928.6
611.3
Russia Foreign
in USD bn
Source: Colliers International
Capital originRussians, with 72% share, are dominating on the investment market now
5 Source: Colliers International
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
Russia Austria China Finland Germany UK USA Other
Investor types
8
Financial and real estate companies are dominating on the market
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
26%
34%
35%
Hotel Owner or OperatorConfidentialNon-real estate companiesDevelopers and property companiesFinancial companies/institutions and funds/REIT
Source: Colliers International
Investment purpose
9
The share of purchases by end-users has increased, similar to 2009
Source: Colliers International
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
32%
58%69%
50%
76%
60%
78%
56%66%
12%
7%
27%
25%
12%
24%
10%
22%
27%56%
34%
4%
25%12% 16% 13%
22%7%
Investment End-users Development
Deal size
10
Half of deals are over USD100 mn, none of over USD300 mn
Source: Colliers International
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
24% 21%
42% 43% 48% 50%
22%
40% 44%
64%
28%36%
31% 25%
35%
50%
23% 21% 20% 12%
11% 10% 13%
15%21%
11% 11% 11% 14%8% 8% 8%
17% 23%
>300 101-300 51-100 21-50 <20
Deal size
11
Investors prefer standing income producing assets, 78% in Q1-Q3 2015
Source: Colliers International
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1-Q3 2015
Standing Under development
in USD mn
Russia Investment BriefingEmmanuel Blouin Founder & Managing Partner
Esterel CapitalSergey Cheremin Minister, Head of
Foreign Economic & International Relations Development
Moscow City Government
Vladimir Frolov Director of the Centre for Energy Efficiency
Moscow State University of Mechanical Engineering Vladimir Pechurchik First Deputy General
DirectorTula Region
Development Corporation, JSCVladimir Sergunin Partner
Colliers InternationalMaarten Vermeulen Head of Europe, Russia & CIS
RICSModerator: Richard Betts Associate Publisher, PropertyEU
€500 Million
Where & how would you invest?
Thank YouEXPO Real 2015Day 1: Asset Management Briefing
17.15 The Networking Lounge, Hall A1, Stand 440Day 2: European Residential
10.00 Hall B3, Conference Room B31 (1st floor)
Germany Investment Briefing11.00 Hall B3, Conference Room B31 (1st
floor)Nordic Investment Briefing15.00 Intelligent Urbanization, Hall A1,
Stand 432European Logistics Briefing – Let’s Talk
Logistics 17.00 Special Real Estate Forum, Hall C2,
Stand 040London I Frankfurt I Paris I New York I Amsterdam I Hamburg I Madrid I Stockholm I Warsaw