russian gas project up to period 2030: myth or reality ?
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Russian Gas Project up to period 2030: Myth or Reality ?. Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia. World Independent Energy Network (Baden-Baden Group) Prague April 26-27, 2010. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Russian Gas Project up to period 2030:Myth or Reality?
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
World Independent Energy Network (Baden-Baden Group)
PragueApril 26-27, 2010
Energy Strategy 2030 in the System of Documents of the Strategic Development
Program of long-term
development of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian
Far East
Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for
the year 2020
Strategy of development of
the power generation in the Russian Far
East
Long-term forecast of the development of
Russian economy for the years
2009-2030
Eastern Gas
Program
General scheme of allocation of power
generating facilities for the
year 2020
General scheme of development of the oil industry for the year
2030
General scheme of development of the gas industry for the year 2030
Conception of the state program for exploration and exploitation of the continental shelf of the Russian Federation
ES-2030
State program of energy saving
Investment programs of energy companies
2
Key reference marks for Russian Gas Sector’s Development up to period 2030
Reference Marks/Directions 2008 г. 1 этап 2 этап 3 этап
Production (extraction)Share of new areas in total volume of extraction, % 3 13-14 21-23 38-39
Yamal 0 6 9 23-24
Eastern Siberia and Far East 2 7-8 12-14 15
Share of Independent Gas Producers in total volume of extraction, %
17 16 25-26 27
TransportGrowth of length of the main gas pipelines, % to 2005 3 8-10 13-15 20-23
Share of the reconstructed working gas pipelines, % from the general length of gas transmission system
4 10-11 12-13 25-26
ExportShare of Asia-Pacific Region in total volume of export, % 0 11-12 16-17 18-19
Share of LNGДоля СПГ in total volume of export, % 0 4-5 10-11 14-15
3
Gas Production Gas Export
4
Прогнозная оценка развития газовой промышленности до 2030 года
billion cubic meters
Far East SakhalinEastern Siberia
European regions Shtokman
Tomsk regionTyumen region
Nadym-Pur-Taz region
billion cubic meters
East West CIS
1 stage 2 stage 3 stage 1 stage 2 stage 3 stage2008 200820052005
Key projects for Russian Gas Sector’s Development up to period 2030
5
Project Project mission Terms of realization
Expected investments(USD bln’ 2007)
Yamal Replace old fields with falling production
2015-2030 150-170
Shtokman LNG production and export for US and Europe Gas Market
2017-2018 (first stage)
25-30(first stage 12-15)
Nord Stream Supply reliability 2011(first stage)
12-14 (first stage 6-7)
South Stream Supply reliability 2015-2020 34-35
Eastern Gas Program
Export flow’s diversificationGasification of Eastern Siberia and Far East
2015-2030 80-90
Total(ES-2030)
560-590
Disturbing results of 2009…
583,9 583,6
664,9
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
675
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
годы
млр
д ку
б. м
Добыча газа в РФ, всего В т.ч. Группа Газпром
6
Gas production has fallen to level of 2000…
12%
120,3
158,4168,3
195,4
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009м
лрд.
куб
. м
Экспорт в дальнее зарубежье Экспорт, всего
24%
Gas export to Europe was reduced to a quarter…
Gas production (Russia) Gas production (GAZPROM)
Export to Europe Export (total)
Monitoring of ES-2030 realization
Reference MarksReference Mark for first stage of ES-2030
(2013-2015)
FactExpected year achievement
Probabilitypurpose achievements to 2013-2015
2008 2009
Share of new areas in total volume of extraction, %
13-14 2 3 2016 20%
Yamal 6 0 0 2014 50% Eastern Siberia and Far East 7-8 2 3 2016-2018 20%Share of Independent Gas Producers
in total volume of extraction, %20 17 20,9 2010 80%
Growth of length of the main gas pipelines, % to 2005
8-10 3 4 2013 80%
Share of the reconstructed working gas pipelines, % from the general length of gas transmission system
10-11 4 62014 60%
Share of Asia-Pacific Region in total volume of export, %
11-12 0 4,4 2016 20%
Share of LNGДоля СПГ in total volume of export, %
4-5 0 4,4 2014 50%
7
Risks (uncertainties) for Russian Gas Sector’s Development
Uncertainty for export expectations
Uncertainty for export prices and contracts
Uncertainty for technologies
Uncertainty for transit
Risk Degree
High
High
Medium
Low
8
Uncertainty for Export Expectations
368
349
234
203
300
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
2008 (факт) 2009 (факт) 2010 2015 2020 2030
млр
д ку
б. м
Прогноз экспорта российского газа (верхний уровень по ЭС-2030)Прогноз экспорта российского газа (нижний уровень по ЭС-2030)Прогноз экспорта российского газа (ожидания ГУ ИЭС)
9Risk of decrease in export expectations on 15-20 %
15-20%Factors of decrease in
export expectations
Europe: competition growth (LNG, Nabucco)
US: refuse of future Russian LNG (the boom of shale gas production)
Asia-Pacific: competition growth (Central Asia)
Russian Gas Export forecast up to period 2030
Russian gas export forecast (high level from ES-2030)Russian gas export forecast (low level from ES-2030)Russian gas export forecast (IES expectations)
Uncertainty for export prices and contracts
474,7
298,2
406,1
483,3
726,5
354,2
251,4292,9
351,9376,9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2008 (факт) 2009 (факт) 2010 2015 2020 2030
долл
. СШ
А за
ты
с. к
уб.м
Средняя цена российского газа (верхний уровень)
Средняя цена российского газа (нижний уровень)
10Price expectations are overestimated…
Forecast for Russian gas export prices up to period 2030
(The Ministry of Economics of Russia)
Factors of decrease in price expectations
High volatility of oil prices
Rapid development of spot trade trade in natural gas
Decrease in the regional prices on LNG
Price situation in 2009 Price,USD./bln. cub. m
Russian gas(long-term contracts, Europe)
288
LNG (US, Henry Hub) 147
LNG (Great Britain, NBP) 142
LNG (Japan, Korea) 260
LNG (Chine) 160
USD/1000 cub. m
Uncertainty for transit• Russia-Ukraine
- long-term reliability of transit
- deterioration of Ukrainian Gas transmission system
- Transit price for Russian gas
• Russia – Central Asia- Sufficiency of gas reserves
- Competition for Central Asia’s gas with Chine
- Competition for Central Asia’s gas with Europe (Nabucco)
- Throughput expansion of Gas transmission system between Russia and Central Asia (Pre-Caspian pipeline)
11
Uncertainty for technologies
12
• Shale gas production: outlook for Europe and Chine
• Limits for Renewables in Europeprices, economy, ecology
• Gas production in Arctic regionclimate changes
• LNG production in Arctic regionclimate changes
Overcoming ways to uncertainties for Russian Gas Sector’s Development
• Change Изменение вектора развития газовой отрасли- From export orientation to the domestic market
- From deliveries of fuel gas to gas processing
- From pipeline to LNG
- Change of principles for Arctic development : a support on ecological and economic expediency
• Revision of investment projects- Selection of priority projects from among declared in ES-2030
- Refusal of a number of ineffective projects-giants (the Southern stream, etc.)
• Flexibility of gas export policy- Revision of pricing system in long-term contracts of Gazprom
- Flexibility increase in mutual relations with Ukraine and Central Asia
• Technological breakthrough- Decrease in the cost price of extraction of natural gas on the Arctic shelf
- Development of LNG infrastructure
- Start of projects on extraction of nonconventional gas (shale gas, low-pressure gas, ets)
13
Thank you for your attention!
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