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Russias intervention in Syria Civil War BY: Abhishek, Anshika, Jose, Sandal &Varun

SyriaA small country with population of 22.5 million which borders Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. Syria has both deserts and fertile areas and is steeped in history dating back to biblical times.

The Syrian RegimeThe Syrian Civil war is an ongoing conflict between its long-serving government and those seeking to boot it out of office. The Assad family has held power in Syria since 1971. First it was Hafez al-Assad, then Bashar al-Assad.Unlike many regime leaders in the middle east middle, The Assad family is not religiously extreme. They are Alawites - a relatively obscure branch of Islam which is not particularly hard-line. So the people have not been protesting against hard-line Islamists, as happened in other countries which participated in the Arab Spring uprisings.But people are still angry at their government about is failure of long-promised economic and political reforms.

And the war begins..Catalyst was the jailing on March 6, 2011, of some children who painted anti-regime graffiti. Some were killed in detention, and this led to public protests which spread around the country - fuelled by the failure of the government to punish the perpetrators.Another theory says the war started with demonstrations which mirrored those in neighboring countries, and which soon led to a security crackdown. In April 2011, the Syrian Army fired on demonstrators and the protests became a full-scale armed rebellion.

Arab SpringArab spring is a media term for the revolutionary wave of demonstrations and protests(both non-violent and violent) riots, and civil wars in the Arab world that began on 18 December 2010.

Whos fighting and why

Assads EnemiesThe primary rebel force opposing Assads regime isthe Free Syrian Army (FSA), which formed in 2011. The FSA is headed by a body called the Supreme Military Council (SMC). The FSA, however, has been characterized asa loose coalition of armed groups, rather than a unified army.Two radical Jihadist groups have also joined the fray:the al-Nusra Front and ISIS the Islamic State. Although they operate as separate entities, both groups want to overthrow Assad and establish an Islamic caliphate that will extend beyond Syrias borders.International coalition is also formed against Assad and in favor of the rebels comprising: US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Qatar, whose primary goal is to contain ISIS.

AlliesIran, a predominately Shiite Muslim nation, is supporting Assad due to the close relation between Alawite Islam and Shiite Islam. Iran also has an interest in keeping Assad in power because it has significant influence over him, and because Syria is strategically positioned close to Irans enemy, Israel.Following Irans lead isHezbollah, a Shiite terrorist group which operates as Irans proxy. Hezbollah supports Assad because of Irans influence.Iraqis also supporting Assad. Iraqs central government is dominated by Shiite Muslims, and therefore it fears a Sunni-controlled Syria.Finally,Russiahas entered the fray on Assads side.

In simple words..ISIS is opposed to Assad and his allies, Assad and his allies are opposed to ISIS and the other rebel groups, and the rebel groups are opposed to Assad, but are also backed by an international coalition led by the United States which primarily seeks to defeat ISIS.

Russia Joins the war!On 30 September, Russia's parliament approved a request by President Vladimir Putin to launch air strikes in Syria. Mr. Putin said Russia was acting "preventatively, to fight and destroy militants and terrorists on the territories that they already occupy, not wait for them to come to our house".The Russian defence ministryinitially saidthe first wave of strikes targeted only the jihadist group, Islamic State (IS), which controls large parts of Syria and is fighting both government and rebel forces.But the US and its allies noted that the strikes took place where IS had little or no presence. They instead appeared to be aimed at rebels backed by Gulf Arab and Western states.

Why?Russia has several interests in Assads continued dominance. First, it desires to protect its military bases that it has established in Syria, and to increase its control in the Middle East. Second, allying with Assad will provide Russia with more influence and favor from his regime in the future. Finally, Russia seeks to oppose the United States interests in the Middle East.

Syrian EconomyThe cost of civil wars

Civil wars cause an economic domino effect -- as foreign and domestic investors flee, national monetary supply falls and economic growth collapses. Throw the usual threat of international sanctions onto this fire, and a nations economy is likely tomelt.The Syrian economys downward spiral, and its effects on the lives of citizens, turns these abstract concepts frighteningly real.

The pre-war economy

Before the war, agriculture, tourism and a consumer economy formed the primary economic sectors. In 2009, the government revenue was approx. $60,465 millionU.S. dollars. Beginning in 2000, the Assad regime slowly moved away fromstate-controlled capitalism. The liberalizing economic structure and a large, educated, young adult population showed promisingeconomic potential. The large influx ofIraqirefugees from the Iraq War helped expand the economy -- the elevated consumption and investment boosted Syrian businesses and the housing market.Unfortunately, all past economic gains have been obliterated as the war drags on.

The Syrian economy today

HarvardCenter for International Development study estimated that large government-involved civil wars typically reduce gross domestic product by 1.25 percenteach year. Syrias 2013 GDP dropped a staggering 20.6 percent. Its 2014 GDP cannot even be measured -- the economy is so broken that there areno statistics available.

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, the Syrian HDI has fallen back to where it was38 years ago meaning that today the average Syrian has the same life-expectancy, education and employment prospects as in 1977.

Effects On Turkey Russia lost one jet, which was shot down byTurkish Air Forcein anincidentthe first time aNATOcountry shot down a Russian plane in half a century.This incident triggered a confrontation between Russia and Turkey, and reportedly cost Turkish economy $10bn in lost business with Russia

Lebanon & Jordan(neighbours) Lebanonthe neighbouring country with the strongest links to Syria. Syria forms Lebanons largest border and is the latters main economic conduit to the outside world. Organic, historical, social, and political ties further tighten the relationship between the two countries.

Effects on economyThe Syrian war has had a mixed impact on Lebanese trade. War seems to have affected neither merchandise nor services exports at the aggregate level. At the same time merchandise imports have been stable through the crisis. This is probably the result of increased demand due to refugee inflow offset by higher transit costs through Syria and depressed Syrian production. And the data also suggests that Lebanese trade seems to have been less negatively affected by the Syrian war than other neighbouring countries.On average a merchandise exporter to Syria before the war lost US$ 90,000 in exports to Syria by 2012, around 1/4 of average pre-crisis exports. While this effect is significant, it is much smaller than the effect for Jordanian exporters, who on average experienced a drop of US$ 340,000, equivalent to 3/4 of their average exports to Syria in 2010.

Services exports are much larger than merchandise exports for Lebanon, which seem to have weathered the impacts of the war. The exception has been tourism, which has been negatively affected by the combined effect of increased insecurity and restrictions that several countries particularly in the Gulf - have placed on travel to Lebanon as a result of the war.

Demand from Syrian refugees in Lebanon has also provided a stimulus to the countrys services exports. Results indicate that a one percent increase in registered refugees boosts exports of services by 1.6 percent after two months.

Effects on Russian EconomyAlthough Russian officials claim that the Russian air force is bombing the positions of ISIS militants, numerous sources in the region say that the main target of these attacks is the "moderate" Syrian opposition fighting against the forces of Syrian President.Turkey and Saudi Arabia support the Syrian Sunni opposition, then the longer and larger the Russian armed forces' involvement in the Syrian civil war, the more political and economic problems will arise for Russia in the region.

For example, the Russian Direct Investment Fund has announced the creation of investment partnerships with the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. As part of these plans, these funds have expressed willingness to invest, respectively, $10 billion and $7 billion in projects in Russia.In a situation in which western financial capital markets have effectively been closed to Russian banks and companies, the capital from the Gulf countries was considered by the Russian authorities as one of the possible and desirable alternatives. Obviously, in the case of a protracted military operation of the Russian army in Syria, the probability of the realization of these plans will fall sharply.