~4.5 BillionMobile Subs

in 2009

Source: Tomi Ahonen Almanac

The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for

development.

Jeffrey Sachs

The Hype Cycle

Source: Gartner Group

Phases of Markets

1. Pioneer

2. Breakout3. Consolidation

4. Maturity

A global volunteer network of NGOs, activists, technologists, academics, media

A community of practice for knowledge and skill sharing

An online mDirectory of apps, case studies, research, how-to materials

An innovation channel

The Use of Mobiles

Health: Disease surveillance and mapping Patient management Public health education (HIV, TB,

STDs) Supply chain management (drugs,

food) Telemedicine

Accountability/Transparency Election monitoring Human rights monitoring Corruption monitoring Budget tracking/participatory

budgeting

Media and (Citizen) Reporting Incidence/news mapping Incident photo/video footage News dissemination in restricted

environments

Disasters and Relief Early warnings Urgent alerts Refugee coordination Supply chain management

Environmental Monitoring GPRS individual and crowd data

Organizing/Advocacy Constituency engagement Legislative advocacy Mobilization Getting Out the Vote Information dissemination Political campaigns/candidates/parties

Economic Development/Livelihoods Payments Micro loan management Market data/information Small enterprises (SMEs)

Functionality Voice/Audio

SMS

Mobile Web

Mobile Applications Data Collection

Supply Chain

Medical records/Imaging etc

USSD

Location-based apps and services

Bluetooth

Photos and Video/Life-stream

1. It’s all very exciting

2. Are we there? If not, what do we need? …with a dose of realism

It’s all really exciting…

Computing is not at the margins anymore, (though people still are.)

Communications is now in the hands of people who have not had it before

Innovation is happening everywhere

“God Sends Mobiles” (Schmitt 2002)

"The cell phone is the single most transformative technology for development” (Jeffrey Sachs)

“A 10% increase in mobile penetration boosts annual GDP by 1.2%” (Deloitte 2007)

“Making lives better”

Mobiles…A Wonderful World?

(Positive) Externalities Cell Phone Services and Development Projects

P

Q

D=Private Marginal Benefit

S=Private Marginal Cost

Q*

Social Marginal Benefit

Q** Social Optimum

Empirical Research on the Impact of Mobile Phones

Fisheries in India (Abraham 2007, Jensen 2007)

Grain markets in Niger (Aker 2008)

Farmer participation in Uganda (Muto 2009)

Internet kiosks and soybean prices in India (Goyal 2009)

Labor markets in South Africa (Klonner and Nolen 2009)

Mobile Phones and Fish Price Dispersion (Jensen 2007)

Cell Phones and Welfare

Welfare improves with market efficiency, but how welfare is distributed among consumers, producers and traders is ambiguous

Increase in fisherman’s profits and a reduction in waste (Jensen 2007)

Traders’ profits increase (higher prices) and consumer prices decrease (Aker 2008)

Increase in monthly wholesale price of soybeans (Goyal 2008)

2. Are we there? If not, what do we

need?

The Mobile Eco System

Source: Rudy de Waele

Key Issues Incredibly promising and exciting

Commercial, competitive, very fluid field

Privacy and security

Fragmented platforms

Many pilots, no scale

Impact unclear. Much trial and error

Focus on apps but not on an enabling environment

Lack of open platforms and applications

Key Issues Significant capacity issues (NGOs and

Gov)

Lack of capable intermediaries

Little knowledge of what works in what setting

Data alone may be largely useless unless it provides the right information delivered through the right channel in the right form at the right time.

Towards a framework

Additive versus transformative

Contextual and user-focused

Sustainable (unsolved)

Driven by demand Build it and they will come does usually

not work

Localized but shareable

Built on open standards?

Built on existing knowledge

Web Databases Radio/TV IVR SMS and USSD

Mobile Web

RSS and XML

Monitoring

Budgets

Revenues and expenditures

Access to information

Standards, indices, report cards

Oversight

• Applicable channel?• In what context?• Successes?• Failures?• Critical success factors?

Needed

Targeted (and outsourced) R&D

ICT innovation marketplaces

Venture funds and PPPs

Strong intermediaries IT, mobile, data, information visualization,

etc

User adoption studies and contextual research

Nokia and Microsoft

Better topographies (and case studies)