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W O R K S H O P   O N   D E V E L O P I N G   C O R P O R A T E   B O N D   M A R K E TS H A N G H A I   N A T I O N A L   A C C O U N T I N G   I N S T I T U T E

A S I A   B O N D   T R E N D S :   C A N   C O R P O R A T E   I S S U E R S   F O L L O W   T H E   S O V E R E I G N ?

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David G. Fernandez

Head of Emerging Asia Research

C:\_this week\Conference\Asia Bond Trends.ppt

This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the JPMorgan client to whom it is directly addressed and delivered (including such client’s subsidiaries, the “Company”) in order to assist the Company in evaluating, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of a possible transaction or transactions and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be disclosed or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of JPMorgan.

The information in this presentation is based upon any management forecasts supplied to us and reflects prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are accordingly subject to change. JPMorgan’s opinions and estimates constitute JPMorgan’s judgment and should be regarded as indicative, preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to us by or on behalf of the Company or which was otherwise reviewed by us. In addition, our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or business of the Company or any other entity. JPMorgan makes no representations as to the actual value which may be received in connection with a transaction nor the legal, tax or accounting effects of consummating a transaction. Unless expressly contemplated hereby, the information in this presentation does not take into account the effects of a possible transaction or transactions involving an actual or potential change of control, which may have significant valuation and other effects.

Notwithstanding anything herein to the contrary, the Company and each of its employees, representatives or other agents may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind, the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment and the U.S. federal and state income tax structure of the transactions contemplated hereby and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to the Company relating to such tax treatment and tax structure insofar as such treatment and/or structure relates to a U.S. federal or state income tax strategy provided to the Company by JPMorgan.

JPMorgan’s policies prohibit employees from offering, directly or indirectly, a favorable research rating or specific price target, or offering to change a rating or price target, to a subject company as consideration or inducement for the receipt of business or for compensation. JPMorgan also prohibits its research analysts from being compensated for involvement in investment banking transactions except to the extent that such participation is intended to benefit investors.

IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters included herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone not affiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties.

JPMorgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide. Securities, syndicated loan arranging, financial advisory and other investment banking activities are performed by a combination of J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., J.P. Morgan plc, J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. and the appropriately licensed subsidiaries of JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Asia-Pacific, and lending, derivatives and other commercial banking activities are performed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. JPMorgan deal team members may be employees of any of the foregoing entities.

This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMorgan entity to underwrite, subscribe for or place any securities or to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services.

English_General

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C:\_this week\Conference\Asia Bond Trends.pptAsia's sovereign bond issuance has peaked…While rest of the world has accelerated

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International bonds issued by governments, outstanding amounts

USD bn

Asia

Rest of world

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C:\_this week\Conference\Asia Bond Trends.ppt

Asia's share of the total sovereign bond market has collapsed

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

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4.0

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Share of Asian sovereign bonds in total

percent

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Presentation3

Asian governments issuing a lot more domestic debt…RoW stayed on trend

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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

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3.0

Domestic government securities outstandingUSD trillion

Asia

Rest of world

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Presentation3Asia's share of total local currency securities has grown substantially, but still a small share

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Asia's share of outstanding domestic government debtpercent

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Presentation3Key EM Asian countries have significantly expanded local issuance

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Domestic and overseas sovereign debt securities: ID, MY, PH & TH

USD bn

Domestic

Overseas

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Presentation3EM Asia has substantially reduced their reliance on international markets

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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Share of overseas securities in total outstanding: ID, MY, PH & TH

percent

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Presentation3But foreign money has followed the issuers home, particularly in Malaysia and Indonesia

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Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

Foreign ownership of domestic government bonds

percent of total

Indonesia

Malaysia

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Presentation3Total foreign ownership is about $10-12bn in both Indo and Malaysia

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Foreign ownership of domestic government bonds

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Malaysia

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Presentation3Perhaps the currency trend explains this seeming 'structural' shift?

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Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08

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Foreign ownership of domestic government bonds: Indonesia

USD bn

Foreign ownership

USD/IDR

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Presentation3The trend is consistent in Malaysia as well:just a coincidence?

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Foreign ownership of domestic government bonds: Malaysia

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USD/MYR

What if the FX markets undergo a structural shift?

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Presentation3Markets which have well-developed local demand base

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Share of government bonds owned by long-term domestic investors

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Malaysia

At the long end, Indonesia is still gradually improving

Malaysia has robust demand source, but insurers and pension funds have ceded market-share to foreigners

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Presentation3

Demand from banks has slowed substantially

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Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09

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Share of government bonds owned by banks

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Indonesia

Malaysia

Can this demand be re-ignited?

What would that imply for credit availability?

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Presentation3Sources of demand in Indonesia are clearly very skewed, and heavily dependent on foreigners

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Foreigners BanksOthers LT InvestorsSeries5

Pattern of demand for domestic government bonds: Indonesia

IDR tnNet issuance

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Presentation3

The sources of demand are slightly better in Malaysia, foreigners still the largest players in recent times

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2005 2006 2007 2008*

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Pattern of demand for domestic government bonds: Malaysia

MYR bnNet issuance

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Presentation3

Mr. Fernandez serves as JPMorgan’s Head of Emerging Asia Research team.

Before joining JPMorgan in January 1998, Mr. Fernandez spent five years as a professor of economics at the Johns Hopkins University International Studies School where he taught international macroeconomics. He was named Professor of the Year in 1996.

Earlier, he served as an Economist in the Council of Economic Advisers in the administration of U.S. President George Bush. In 1987, he joined the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its OECD economic research department and in the foreign exchange intervention group.

Mr. Fernandez has a B.A. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania and received a Doctorate in Economics from Princeton University where, as a National Science Foundation fellow, he wrote his dissertation under Ben S. Bernanke.

In addition to his work at JPMorgan, Mr. Fernandez is on the Advisory Board of Singapore Management University’s School of Economics.

Managing Director and Head,Emerging Asia Research(65) 6882-2461david.g.fernandez@jpmorgan.com

David FernandezDavid Fernandez

Biography

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