s eptember 23, 2009 jim casey industrial forecast luncheon
TRANSCRIPT
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September 23, 2009
Jim Casey
Industrial Forecast Luncheon
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Industrial DevelopmentCurrent Market Trends - Houston New spec project pipeline is shut down There is reasonable tenant leasing activity, but
commitments are slow There has not been major give-backs of space Generally, the markets are declining slightly, but pretty
stable Need to see job growth to generate meaningful
absorption
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Values have declined; but little volume to establish values
Lenders terms have shifted significantly; they don’t want to make new loans right now
Equity is waiting on sidelines for more clarity on values Effects of long term debt roll-overs yet to come REIT’s are recovering, raising equity
Capital Markets
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Northwest Largest and most diverse Oilfield services, computer industry, furniture, general goods Modest amount of big new space Sub Market is in balance
Houston Submarkets vary significantly
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Southwest Fort Bend County is one of
the fastest growing countiesin the country
Electronics, engineering, oilfield services
Several new projects delivered in 2008 / 2009
Proximity and access to residential areas is key
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East Most forward looking
submarket Petrochemical
commodities, container traffic
Big projects delivered; need to see new major increases in are housing to absorb the space
Long-term factors should promote growth, but near-term is going to be difficult
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North
Proximity to IAH is key Freight forwarding, oilfield
services Export and import
activities New international cargo
routes developing
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Summary Houston industrial market is trending
down, but the slope is shallow Need to watch job losses;….. will there be
job gains in 2010? New construction pipeline has slowed to a
trickle Houston should out-perform most of the
country long-term