s tock tales - markets mojo · 2019. 12. 27. · zensar technologies zente) pushing the right...

Stock Tales are concise, holistic stock reports across wider spectrum of sectors. Updates will not be periodical but based on significant events or change in price.

Stock_____

TALES

December 20, 2019

ICIC

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ecurit

ies –

Retail E

quit

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esearch

Stock T

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s

December 20, 2019

CMP: | 178 Target: | 210 (18%) Target Period: 12 months

Zensar Technologies (ZENTE)

BUY

Pushing the right buttons…

Zensar is a part of the RPG group of companies. The company provides

application development, digital and cloud infrastructure services. Vertical

wise, the company generates 51.3% of revenues from manufacturing,

22.2% from retail & consumer services, 23.2% from financial services and

the rest from emerging verticals. In geographical terms, major revenue

contributor is Americas (75.2%) followed by Europe (14.3%), Africa (8.8%)

and RoW (1.7%). We believe Zensar, with its acquisition in the core

implementation and digital arena, can now effectively compete and win

scale projects. This will enable the company to make inroads into top global

companies (major tech spenders) and win large deals. In addition, Zensar’s

digital capability (~44% of revenues) will enable the company to witness

sustainable long term growth over the next few years.

Large deal wins, digital, client mining key growth levers

In 2016, there was a change in management and Sandeep Kishore from HCL

Tech joined as CEO. The new CEO’s focus on building digital capability has

led to four acquisition over the past three years. These acquisition coupled

with organic RPA tools & platforms have enabled the company to develop a

full scale digital practice. We believe this will enable Zensar to participate in

full scale digital deals and also help win large deals. Further, in order to

improve large deal wins, the company has constituted large deal teams and

engaged with third-party outsourcing agents. In addition, Zensar has aligned

its sales incentive plan in line with the new strategic focus. Based on these

factors, coupled with focus on mining top 50 clients, we expect revenues to

grow at a healthy pace in the long term.

Divestment of non-core, operational efficiency to drive margins

Over FY16-19, the company witnessed pressure on margins, mainly due to

acquisitions and lower margins in non-core business [like Rest of the World

and multi-vendor support (MVS)]. However, going forward, we expect

margins to improve led by divestment of non-core business (that will help

reduce long & short term debt & improve margins) and scale in large deal

wins. We expect margins to improve from 10.2% in FY19 to 10.7% in FY21E.

Valuation & Outlook

Zensar is well placed in terms of providing IT services in the digital space.

Further, focus on large deal wins and mining of top 50 clients bodes well for

revenue growth in the long term. In addition, we expect higher organic

growth, divestment of non-core business and scale in large deals to boost

margins. Consequently, the company is expected to register revenue and

PAT CAGR of 11.7% and 15.6% over FY19-21E, respectively. Considering

the robust growth, we have a BUY recommendation on Zensar and assign a

P/E multiple of ~11x (PEG of 0.6) leading to a target price of | 210/share.

Key Financial Summary s

(| Crore) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR (FY19-21E)

Net Sales 3,060 3,116 3,983 4,429 4,966 11.7%

EBITDA 387 373 493 616 709 20.0%

EBITDA Margin (%) 12.7 12.0 12.4 13.9 14.3

PAT 235 241 314 346 419 15.6%

EPS (|) 10.4 10.7 13.9 15.4 18.6

P/E 17.1 16.6 12.8 11.6 9.6

ROE (%) 15.9 14.5 16.1 16.0 17.2

ROCE (%) 20.4 17.4 17.6 18.2 19.4

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Particulars

Particular Amount

Market Capitalization (| Crore) 4,005.9

Total Debt (FY19) (| Crore) 257.8

Cash & Investments (FY19) (| Crore) 371.2

EV (| Crore) 3,892.5

52 week H/L 271 / 167

Equity capital 45.0

Face value | 2

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Key Highlights

Digital prowess, client mining and

large deal wins to boost revenues

over FY19-21Ec

Expect margins to see improved

trajectory with presence of several

tailwinds

Research Analyst

Devang Bhatt

[email protected]

Deepti Tayal

[email protected]

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2

ICICI Direct Research

Stock Tales | Zensar Technologies

Company Background

Zensar is a part of the RPG group of companies. The company provides

application development, digital and cloud infrastructure services. Vertical

wise, the company generates 51.3% of revenues from manufacturing,

22.2% from retail & consumer services, 23.2% from financial services and

the rest from emerging verticals.

Exhibit 1: Vertical wise split

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19CAGR over

FY16-19

Revenues in US$ mn 453 456 482 567 7.8%

5.3% 0.6% 5.8% 17.6%

as a % of revenues

Hi-Tech & Manufacturing 54 52.6 51.7 51.3

Hi Tech 35.4 37.4

Manufacturing 16.3 13.9

Retail and Consumer Services 22 25.3 26.9 22.2

Banking and Insurance 18.9 18.2 20.3 23.2

Insurance 14.9 18.4

Banking 5.3 4.8

Emerging 5.7 3.86 1.1 3.3

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0


In geographical terms, major revenue contributor is Americas (75.2%)

followed by Europe (14.3%), Africa (8.8%) and RoW (1.7%).

Exhibit 2: Geography wise split

as a % of revenues FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

US 77 74.3 72.8 75.2

Europe 10 11.6 14.0 14.3

Africa 8 8.8 9.9 8.8

Row 5 5.3 3.3 1.7

Total 100 100 100 100


The company has a significant presence in digital technologies. In FY19, of

the overall revenues, ~45% of topline was from digital technologies. The

company has grown its digital capability organically and through acquisition.

Exhibit 3: Digital revenue trend (as percentage of topline)

27%

30%

38%

45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

% o

f revenue

Digital revenue





Investment Rationale

Focus on large deals, client mining to drive topline

The company has constituted large deal teams to win deals in the US$10-20

million categories. The large deal team will bring in expertise around

bidding, pricing and structuring of large deals. Further, to increase

participation in large deal wins the company is engaging with third-party

outsourcing agents. Zensar is also focusing on deal sizes with TCV of US$10

million+ using its differentiation in automation frameworks, multi-service

focus and digital prowess. In addition, the company has aligned its sales

incentive plan in line with the new strategic focus. The initiatives of the

company are visible in client addition, which has increased from four in FY16

to nine in FY19 in the US$10 million plus category. Apart from winning large

deals, the company is focusing on mining of top 50 clients, which has led to

growth in top 6-10 clients and top 20 clients that have grown at a CAGR of

11.7% and 9.9%, respectively, over FY16-19. In addition, the company is

making healthy client addition in the US$5 million category to scale these

clients up to the US$10 million and US$20 million category. Based on these

factors, we expect revenues to grow at a healthy pace in the long term.

Exhibit 4: Trend in top clients YoY growth

Clients FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 3 year CAGR

In (%)

Top 5 clients 37.0 38.0 36.3 37.6

Top 10 clients 45.0 46.0 44.8 46.5

Top 20 clients 55.0 56.0 56.1 57.1

In US$ mn

Top 5 clients 167.5 173.1 175.0 213.2 8.4%

Top 6-10 clients 36.2 36.4 41.0 50.5 11.7%

Top 20 clients 45.3 45.6 54.5 60.1 9.9%

YoY (%)

Top 5 clients 8.2% 3.3% 1.1% 21.8%

Top 6-10 clients -6.4% 0.6% 12.5% 23.1%

Top 20 clients 75.5% 0.6% 19.6% 10.3%

20 mn dollar 2 3 2 2

10 mn dollar 4 4 4 9

5 mn dollar 5 7 17 19

1 mn dollar 64 72 80 92


Digital as percentage of revenue one of highest among peers

Zensar has one of the highest digital revenues (~44%) among its peers.

Over the years, the company has built its digital capabilities majorly by

acquisition. Over FY15-19, the company acquired five companies to build its

digital capabilities. Zensar has made two acquisition in digital customer

experience (Foolpoof and Indigo Slate) while the two other companies viz.

Keystone Logistic Solution & Professional Access are expected to

strengthen its Oracle practice (which we believe is one-third of its total

revenues). In addition, the company, through acquisition of Cynosure, has

strengthened its Guidewire implementation services. Further, the company

also has organic RPA tools and platforms such as The Vinci typically

deployed in IMS deals. Hence, with the acquisitions and organic strength,

the company has developed a full scale digital practice. We believe this will

enable the company to provide an end to end service, participate in full scale

digital deals and also help win large deals.

Top 6-10 clients and top 20 clients have grown at a

CAGR of 11.7% and 9.9%, respectively, over FY16-

19

The company has improved it’s digital capabilities in

customer experience side




Exhibit 5: Digital revenue as percentage of total revenues

27%

30%

38%

45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

% o

f revenue

Digital revenue


Exhibit 6: Digital revenues vis-à-vis peers

45%

42%

29%

38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Zensar Mindtree NIIT Tech LTI

as a

% of topline

Digital revenues


Cost optimisation & change in onsite mix key margin levers

Over FY16-19, the company has witnessed pressure on margins mainly due

to acquisitions and lower margins in non-core business (like Rest of the

World and multi vendor support (MVS)). However, to improve margins,

Zensar has indicated at divesting its non-core business. The company has

also taken a step in this direction and completely exited the RoW business

in Q1FY20 for | 16.9 crore. The RoW business had revenue of ~| 67.5 crore

implying an EV/sales of 0.25x. Zensar is also planning to exit the MVS

business, which is ~4% of the topline or | 189 crore. We believe the

company will be divesting its business by FY21E. Assuming 0.5x EV/sales

the company would be able to raise | 100 crore. This may be used to pare

debt and improve net margins.

Further, the MVS business is also working capital heavy, which will help the

company in reducing short-term debt thereby improving margins and RoE.

Apart from this low hanging fruit, Zensar also has certain levers, which can

boost margins in the long term. The company is currently focusing on

winning large deals, which initially have transition cost and onsite heavy

headcount. Hence, we believe these large deals are margin dilutive in the

near term but will be margin positive in the medium term. In addition, we

believe Zensar’s high onsite mix can be a long term trigger for margins to

improve. Further, we expect margins in acquired companies to improve in

coming years. Hence, overall, we expect margins to improve marginally in

the near term. However, in the long term, we expect margins to be in line

with its peer group.

Divesting non-core business to improve margins




Exhibit 7: Onsite offshore revenue mix (as percentage of topline)

64%66% 67% 67% 67% 68% 67%

36%34% 33% 33% 33% 32% 33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20

(%

)

Onsite revenues Offshore revenues


Key management changes to drive growth

In 2016, there was a change in management and Sandeep Kishore from HCL

Tech joined as CEO. The new CEO aimed to strengthen the leadership team

and grow its digital business. In order to strengthen the digital business, the

new CEO did four acquisition in the past three years. Further, the new CEO

brought in a new leadership in sales, top accounts and vertical heads to drive

growth in the company in the coming years. The changes made in the

leadership team are depicted below:

Exhibit 8: Leadership from tier-1 players to strengthen company’s business

Leadership Role Past experience

Harjott AtriiExecutive Vice President and Global Head of cloud

and Infrastructure services

Head of Sales for insurance vertical at NTT Data (Dell Services)

Malay Verma Executive Vice President and Head, Retail and BFSIVice President and Global Head, Cisco BU at Wipro

Sanjeev Malik Senior Vice President and Head, Digital ConsultingHeld senior management positions at Wipro, KPMG, Wachovia

(now Wells Fargo), and Oracle

Venky RamananExecutive Vice President and Head, Hi-Tech and

Manufacturing

Partner in IBM's Global Business Services, leading the Digital

Transformation, Cognitive, IoT and Analytic services

Navneet Khandelwal CFO Wipro

Vivek RanjanSenior Vice President and Chief Human Resource

Officer

Head of HR at Ericsson India Global Services


Most of the hiring is from Tier-1 companies. They bring huge amount of

experience in better targeting emerging client, mining existing clients

effectively and better execution capabilities.

Exhibit 9: Acquisitions made by new CEO over past three years

Company Area of operation

Cynosure Guidewire implementaion partner

Indigo Slate Digital Marketing

Keystone Logic Solutions Digital Supply chain

Foolproof Digital design


Mr Kishore joined as CEO in 2016 and has focused

on improving digital capabilities of the company




Return ratios to improve in the long term

The company’s RoE has taken a hit (down from 25.1% in FY15 to 16.1% in

FY19) mainly due to a decline in margins, acquisition, and increase in debt.

We expect return ratios to remain in the 16.0% range in the near term due

to the company’s focus on winning large deals (that are margin dilutive in

the near term), higher onsite mix and near term weakness in retail vertical.

However, in the longer term, we expect RoE to improve mainly led by scale

benefits of large deals, shift in onsite mix, improved pricing in digital

revenues and improving margins in acquired entities. In addition, the

company’s divesture of non-core revenues could also lead to lower long

term and short term debt. Hence, we believe the company would register

healthy return ratios in the longer term.

Exhibit 10: Return ratio trends

20.4

17.4 17.618.2

19.4

15.9

14.5

16.1 16.0

17.2

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(%

)

ROCE (%) ROE (%)


Improved pricing in digital revenues and improved

margins in acquired entities to drive return ratios




Key risks

Client concentration: The company’s top 20 clients account for 57% of

topline. In addition, the company’s exposure to top client is also high. Hence,

any client specific challenge could adversely impact the company’s

financials.

Higher exposure to retail vertical: The retail vertical accounts for ~22% of

revenues. Players in the retail vertical have been under pressure due to

competition from online retailers. One of the retail clients of Zensar had filed

for bankruptcy, which led to a write-down. In addition, in Q2, the retail

vertical was impacted due to ramp down by few clients. Hence, any adverse

turn of events in retail vertical could impact the company’s revenues.

Acquisition led growth: Over the years, the company has grown through

acquisitions. These acquisitions impact margins in the near term as

witnessed historically. In the event that the company is unable to

successfully turn around its acquisition (in future), it could impact its margins

in near term.




Financial Summary

Exhibit 11: Profit and loss statement | crore

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Total Revenues 3,116 3,983 4,429 4,966

Growth (%) 1.8 27.8 11.2 12.1

Employee Benefit Expense 2,206.8 2,828.6 3,132.8 3,499.3

Other Expenses 536.0 661.1 679.5 757.3

EBITDA 373 493 616 709

Growth (%) -3.6 32.2 25.1 15.1

Depreciation 65.1 89.4 158.8 178.2

Other Income 66.5 79.3 79.6 84.7

Interest 22.7 37.3 55.0 42.0

PBT before Exceptional Items 351.50 445.4 482.1 573.6

Growth (%) 0.9 26.7 8.2 19.0

Tax 105.1 126.7 132.6 154.9

PAT before Exceptional Items 246.4 318.7 349.5 418.7

Minority interest 5.0 5.1 4.0 -

PAT 241 314 346 419

Growth (%) 2.9 29.9 10.2 21.2

Diluted EPS 10.7 13.9 15.4 18.6

EPS (Growth %) 2.9 29.9 10.2 21.2


Exhibit 12: Cash flow statement | crore


Profit before Tax 352 445 482 574

Depreciation 65 89 159 178

Change in working capital (138) (262) (165) (160)

Income Taxes Paid (104) (139) (133) (155)

CF from operations 175 134 343 436

Other Investments (12) 144 80 85

(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (145) (394) (163) (198)

CF from investing Activities (157) (250) (84) (113)

Inc / (Dec) in Equity Capital 3 1 - -

Inc / (Dec) in sec.loan Funds (134) 276 - (50)

Dividend & Dividend tax (63) (63) (122) (148)

Interest Paid on Loans (10) (13) (55) (42)

CF from Financial Activities (204) 201 (177) (240)

Net change in cash (187) 85 83 84

Opening cash 329 207 326 380

Closing cash 207 326 380 421


Exhibit 13: Balance sheet | crore


Equity 45 45 45 45

Reserves & Surplus 1,624 1,897 2,121 2,392

Networth 1,669 1,942 2,166 2,437

Total debt 6 258 258 208

Minority Interest 14 17 17 17

Other liabilities 78 78 78 78

Source of funds 1,766 2,295 2,518 2,739

Fixed assets 103 108 111 122

Intangible assets 73 250 252 261

Goodwill 422 603 603 603

Non current investments 144 70 70 70

Other non current assets 91 120 152 179

Current Investments 130 45 45 45

Cash Balance 207 326 380 421

Inventories 106 98 110 139

Debtors 642 876 913 1,025

Other current assets 378 592 664 717

Trade payables 184 301 335 376

Other Current liabilities 346 494 446 466

Application of funds 1,766 2,295 2,518 2,739


Exhibit 14: Key ratios


Per share data (|)

Diluted EPS 10.7 13.9 15.4 18.6

BV 74.2 86.3 96.2 108.3

DPS - - - -

Cash Per Share 9.2 14.5 16.9 18.7

Operating Ratios (%)

EBITDA Margin 12.0 12.4 13.9 14.3

PAT Margin 7.7 7.9 7.8 8.4

Debtor days 75 80 75 75

Creditor days 22 28 28 28

Return Ratios (%)

RoE 14.5 16.1 16.0 17.2

RoCE 17.4 17.6 18.2 19.4

RoIC 21.5 21.0 21.9 23.4

Valuation Ratios (x)

P/E 16.6 12.8 11.6 9.6

EV / EBITDA 9.9 7.9 6.2 5.3

Market Cap / Sales 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8

Price to Book Value 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6

Solvency Ratios

Debt / Equity 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

Current Ratio 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2

Quick Ratio 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1





RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its

stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,

Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined

as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]




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subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned

Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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