Marijuana Legalization

Issues: Where Can We

Go?

Kevin A. Sabet, Ph.D.Director, Drug Policy Institute and Assistant

Professor, University of Florida President, Policy Solutions Lab, Cambridge, MA

www.kevinsabet.com

Disclosure

Neither I nor any member of my family has a relationship with any

proprietary entity concerning services discussed in this

presentation.

Neither I nor any member of my family has a relationship with the

alcohol or tobacco industry.

Why Are We Having This Discussion?

Because They Have Been Brilliant…

And We Have Not Been!

All or nothing?Legalization vs. Prohibition

They’ve organized at the state level to push their

initiatives.

They have major donors who fund their work and

messages.

They’ve secured legislative champions at all levels – local, state and federal.

They’ve gotten the attention of editorial boards and media –

including print, television and social media.

They’ve mobilized major grassroots and student

supporters.

They are present and active in every single

academic, think-tank, UN, and other international and domestic discussion

on drug policy.

How Can We Turn This Around?

Sources: Gallup http://bit.ly/olrSEQ and GSS

Marijuana legalization could pass: In one poll, National support is 50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Do not support legalization Support Legalization

But Have We Seen This Before?

Percentage of U.S. 12th Grade Students Reporting Past Month

Use of Cigarettes and Marijuana, 1975 to 2009

19751977

19791981

19831985

19871989

19911993

19951997

19992001

20032005

20072009

0

10

20

30

40

Perc

ent Cigarettes

Marijuana

Source: The Monitoring the Future study, the University of Michigan

Is the late 1970s…

In 5 years, 11 states “decriminalized” marijuana

NORML bragged, 1978: Keith Stroup “We are trying to get marijuana reclassified medically. If we do that, (we'll do it in at least 20 states this year for chemotherapy patients) we'll be using the issue as a red herring to give marijuana a good name.” (Emory Wheel, 1978)

2012: MASSCANN/NORML spokesman: “Stepping stone to legalization? I hope so. That’s the plan. Decrim 2008, Medical 2012, Legal 2016. Yes we want to legalize! We will completely legalize for everybody in 2016.” (YouTube, 2012)

Legalization Resurgence

Brilliant PR: “Marijuana is Medicine”

Tight Marijuana Legalization Races in ‘12

Our Side Often Feels Dejected (public grantees “cannot lobby”)

Generational trends in support for legalization (Caulkins)

Perc

enta

ge F

avor

ing

Lega

lizati

on

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%Percent Favoring Legalization by

Birth Cohort (GSS)

Overall Silent Generation (1925-1945)Baby Boomers (1946-1964) Generation X and Y (1965-2000)

In 2012

Three States Voting on Marijuana Legalization: OR, WA, CO

WA and CO are most worrisome – professionally run campaigns with $

$$

Four States to Vote on “Medical” Marijuana

Factors Leading to Increase

Outspent

Messenger problem (generational familiarity)

Seen and framed as sensible alternative

We Must Always Emphasize

We Don’t Have All The Answers

Current Policies Can Be Reformed, But Legalization is Unnecessary for

That

Legalization Exposes Us to Unknown Risk

Ultimately the Question is this:

“Is the right to get high and buy legal pot in a store worth the risk to kids in the form of greater addiction and learning

deficits, the risk to society when we have another legal entity advertising an

addictive substance, and the risk to our economy in the form of greater safety

and health costs (like car crashes or the costs to health care and the costs of a

newly regulated system)?”

We Lose When We…

Say that Current Policy Needs No Changes, “Everything is Great”

Go on the Defensive About Law Enforcement Resources

Don’t Integrate Doctors, Health Workers, Teachers, Soccer Moms in

Our Work

Going Through the Arguments

6.6

23.3

51.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Marijuana Cigarettes Alcohol

Current Use of Major Substances inthe General Population, 2009

Source: SAMHSA, 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (September 2010).

Past Month Use (Ages 12 or Older)

Alcohol & Tobacco: Money Makers or Dollar Drainers?

Alcohol

Costs

$14

Tobacco

$185bil.

$25

$200bil.

Revenues

bil.bil.

Costs

Revenues

“If Only We Treated It Like Alcohol…”

2.7 million 847,000Arrests for alcohol-related Marijuana-related

crimes in 2008 arrests in 2008(Does NOT include violence;

Includes violations of liquor laws anddriving under the influence)

Effect of Legalization on Price & Consumption

RAND: Price Will Drop More Than 80%

Consumption Will Increase

Tax evasion a major concern

What incentives do legal corporations have to keep price

low and consumption high?

Alcohol: “Drink Responsibly” and

Tax Low

Legalization: Experience Elsewhere?

No modern nation has tried legalization, though most Western countries do not imprison people for simple marijuana possession.

- The Netherlands, Portugal, Italy use rates lower for some drugs since 10 yrs ago; higher for others.

- The Dutch experienced a three-fold increase in marijuana use among young adults after commercialization expanded.

Num

ber o

f Sen

tenc

ed P

rison

ers

38,900148,600

224,900 263,800 251,400

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Estimated Number of Sentenced Prisoners and Drug Offenders Under State Jurisdiction, 1985 to 2009

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Prisoners in 2009 (December 2010); Prisoners in 1996 (June 1997).

6/2011

All Offenses

Drug Offenses

Underground Markets and Crime

RAND: Mexican DTOs earn 15-25% of revenue from marijuana.

It is highly likely that legalization would not eliminate black markets for drugs.

State Legalization: 2-4% impact on DTO revenues (California)

- Most legalization proposals call for taxes on drugs, which increases likelihood that markets will remain endemic.

- TCOs involved in numerous illegal trades

Taxes Necessary to Prevent a Price Collapse Are Enormous

• Excise taxes create gray markets

• Most relevant metrics are– Price per unit weight– Price per unit volume

• Canada tried but had to repeal ~300% excise taxes on tobacco

Cross Sectional Relationship Between Tobacco Tax & Evasion (Caulkins)

y = 0.1141x + 0.0018R² = 0.5559

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00

Cons

umpti

on f

rom

Sm

uggl

ing

Excise Tax ($ per pack)

Placing a $50 per Ounce MJ Tax on the Same Scale (assuming 20 grams per

pack)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

450%

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60

Cons

umpti

on f

rom

Sm

uggl

ing

Excise Tax per Ounce

Marijuana’s Health Effects

Most people who use marijuana once will stop, and not get addicted.

1 in 6 kids who try marijuana will become addicted.

For the group of people who keep smoking marijuana, the health

harms are underappreciated and costly.

Potency: Increased THC Contentin Seized Marijuana

PERCENT THC FROM 1983 TO 200910%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05

Sources: The University of Mississippi Potency Monitoring Project

Long Term Effectsof Marijuana

32 ESTIMATED PREVALENCE OF DEPENDENCE AMONG USERS

23

1715

119

8

5

Tobacco Alcohol Marijuana Cocaine Stimulant Analgesics Psychedelics Heroin

Source: Wagner, F.A. & Anthony, J.C. From First drug use to drug dependence; developmental periods of riskfor dependence upon cannabis, cocaine, and alcohol. Neuropsychopharmacology 26, 479-488 (2002).

282Heroin

175Inhalants

126Sedatives

351Stimulants 358

Hallucinogens

451Tranquilizers

Dependence on or Abuseof Specific Illicit Drugs

in the Past Year AmongPersons 12 or Older, 2008

1,411Cocaine4,199

Marijuana

1,716Pain Relievers

Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. (2009). Office of Applied Studies.Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS): 2009 Discharges from Substance Abuse Treatment Services, DASIS.

Increased Marijuana TreatmentAdmissions 1993 and 2007

PERCENT OF ADMISSIONS60%

19932007

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0Alcohol Cocaine Heroin Marijuana

Source: Treatment Episode Data Set, US Health and Human Services, 1993 & 2007

Marijuana and Kids

The adolescent brain is especially susceptible to marijuana use.

That means that when kids use, they have a greater chance of addiction since their brains are being primed.

If used regularly before 18, new research shows that IQ drops by 8 points at age 38, even when that

person has stopped.

Let’s Not Go Back Here

The Liggett Group: “If you are really and truly not going to sell [cigarettes] to children, you are going to be out of business in 30 years.” R. J. Reynolds: “Realistically, if our company is to survive and prosper, over the long term we must get our share of the youth market.” 

Lorillard: “The base of our business is the high school student.” Phillip Morris: “Today's teenager is tomorrow's potential regular customer… Because of our high share of the market among the youngest smokers, Philip Morris will suffer more than the other companies from the decline in the number of teenage smokers.”

There are many ways to reduce incarceration and other related consequences without legalizing drugs.

SolutionsSmart International

Prevention Treatment Recovery Enforcement Efforts

The future is uncertain…

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

20012003

20052007

20092011

20132015

20172019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Extrapolation of Percentage Favoring Legalization Given Cohort Turnover

(Jonathan Caulkins)

Perc

enta

ge F

avor

ing

Lega

lizati

on

WWhat did we learn in California? (Caulkins)

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Percent Voting No on Prop 19

Vo

tin

g N

o O

n P

rop

19

Min

us

Ou

twar

dly

Ag

ain

st L

egal

izat

ion

Liberal Income

$40K-$80K

Income Under $40K

Latino

Age 18-34

Immigrant

Conservative

< HS Educa-tion

Income $80K+

Parents of Children in Public Schools

Age 55+

Male

Female

49

Overall

Swin

g Vo

ters VOTED

NO

• 1 in 11 of those who voted ‘No’ agree that marijuana should be legalized but did not like the specifics of Prop 19

• Focus on Specifics of Proposal, NOT generalizations

• Form partnerships with key groups– Immigrant populations– 55+– Females, Soccer Moms, Public Schools

Immediate Steps for All of Us

Recruit Younger Generation as Leaders

Go Out of Our Way to Not Look Inflexible, We Must Reclaim

“Reform”

Pick Battles Wisely

Think Like “Google” or “Apple” Not “Microsoft”

THANK YOU!KEVINSABET@GMAI

L.COMWWW.KEVINSABET.C

OM